2008 Baseball Season #4.........AL West

Now that we have the predictions for the AAAA League all taken care of, let's get down to the predictions that matter. The American League is the Matt Damon to the National League's Ben Affleck, the Sylvester Stallone to the NL's Frank Stallone.

There is no shortage of great players, or solid teams in the AL this year, and the AL West promises to be quite entertaining. While it might not be the deepest league, it is captivating simply because the top two teams seem to be legit World Series contenders this year, with both teams stepping up in the offseason and doing enough to thrust themselves into the dicussion.

Oakland Athletics: The A's are usually one of my favorites come this time of year. Like the Twins, the A's seem to always do more with less. But that was primarily because the A's always just seemed to have more pitching than anyone else. They routinely turned out top pitching prospects like they were making them on an assembly line. But with the trade of Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks, the A's are left with serviceable, yet flawed, Joe Blanton as their ace. That's a far cry from the days of Mulder, Zito and Hudson. That's even a far cry from the (healthy) days of Harden, Haren and Blanton.

Rich Harden will be back in the rotation this year, yet it is difficult to believe that the supremely talented righty will ever be able to handle the rigors of a full season in the rotation. In fact, one might begin to think about Harden more in the bullpen (to save his arm) than in the rotation, but to start the year the fireballer will be the number 2 starter behind Blanton. After that, the rotation will be filled out by youngster Chard Gaudin, and veteran pitchers Lenny DiNardi and Justin Duchscherer (veteran for this club). However, DiNardi and Duchsherer seem to be seat holders in the upcoming year before a new crop of young pitchers, like Brett Anderson (who came over in the Haren trade) and Gio Gonzalez. But, for now, it is Joe Blanton and Harden and that's it.

The lineup? Eric Chavez and his encyclopedia of ailments is really the only *ahmm* reliable starter in the everyday lineup. If he stays healthy (again............ahmmm) he should put up solid numbers and play good defense. After that? Bobby Crosby has shown nothing at short stop since winning the Rookie of the Year award in 2005. Mark Ellis is serviceable but by no means intimidating at second. Daric Barton, Kurt Suzuki and Travis Buck all have potentially bright futures within the organization but lack of serviceable players is what facilitated their callups last year and it is still unclear whether any of them were truly ready for the big dance. That makes up the bulk of what promises to be an NL lineup in the AL. Not exactly murder's row.

They have Huston Street anchoring a solid bullpen and, if Harden stays healthy and Gaudin takes a leap forward, perhaps the always pesky A's can surprise some people, but my guess is that this year, when Oakland says they are rebuilding, they are rebuilding.

Texas Rangers: This seems to be rebuilding year number 12 for the Texas Rangers, who haven't been consistently good since the mid-1990's, and the usual bug-a-boo for the Rangers, pitching, promises to derail yet another season before it officially starts. However, there are some bright spots for this team, and some hope that the future might have a bright lone star shining down on them in the near future.

The vast majority of the hope resides in the lineup the Rangers will feature. Thumping has been a staple for the Rangers throughout their history (whether the team has been dismal or solid) and they have a chance to return to the heady days of all offense, no defense again this year. Jarrod Saltalamacchia has all the talent to be a supreme offensive player in this league. He looks like a chiseled marble statue, a perfect rendering of what the male human body can become when pushed to its limits. His defense behind the plate is only solid, but his potential at bat is off the charts. Hank Blalock has had two injury plagued years, but aside from a recent minor car accident that left his neck a little stiff, the 3B seems to be in good health. Considering Blalock averaged 27 homers and 100 RBI between 2003 and 2005, and considering he is only 27 years old, Blalock should return to form if completely healthy (unless he had some Brian McNamee-help in those first three years, but I digress). Michael Young is a 200 hit guy every single year and people still expect that Iam Kinsler can be a 25 homer guy a year from second base (he had 20 last year). The real pick up of the offseason, however, seems to be Josh Hamilton. The oft-troubled youngster had a resurgent year with the Reds last year, but was traded for some bullpen help this year. Hamilton showed everyone why he was the first pick of the draft in 1996, displaying a five-tool resume, and in the hot nights and humid conditions of Texas, Hamilton should put up big power numbers. With Hamilton and Saltalamacchia and Hamilton solidfying the middle of the order, and with Young and Kinsler getting on base in front of them, the Rangers will be in a lot of 8-7 games.

Unfortunately, when your ace going into the season seems to be Kevin Millwood, chances are you will be looking at the losing end of those high scoring games.

Millwood has been shaky his entire career, and age isn't on his side. Behind him is equally uninspiring Vincent Padilla, a talented youngster in Brandon McCarthy, who so far as not lived up to billing, and Jason Jennings, who left the Rockies to go to the Astros before the 2007 season and promptly rewarded his new team with only 19 starts and a wonderful 6.45 ERA. And that was in the National League. Now, Jennings did have a nice year for the Rockies two years ago, meaning he has some talent, but was that a flash in the pan year or was last year the exception to the rule. Either way, when Millwood and Padilla are your 1-2 in the rotation, a guy with a 6.45 ERA doesn't offer a lot of comfort for a consistent rotation.

The bullpen is equally unimpressive, with the venerable CJ Wislon slated to be the closer, but with the rotation the way it is, Wilson may not see a lot of chances to close games out. If you're a fan of offense, the Rangers might be a must see this year, but those runs probably won't mean much winning come this year.

Seattle Mariners: If anyone had the misfortune to actually read my predictions for the 2007 season last year they would have seen some gems, like my Rich Harden, Cy Young prediction, or my Houston Astros win the NL Central prediction. But lost in the nonsensical ramblings of my uneducated guesses was my prediction that the Mariners would be one of the more surprising teams in the sport. In fact, I am pretty sure I am the only person alive who actually predicted the Mariners would put a scare into people before the 07 season was said and done.

TAKE THAT ESPN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This year? They aint sneakin up on anyone.

What I like about the Mariners this year is that they added an essential piece to the puzzle that could, in fact, put them over the top. Their offense is substantial, with the great Ichiro still in Seattle, still slapping the ball all over the ballpark, and still putting together the toughest at bats in the entire game. He remains the best table setter in the sport, and his ability to disrupt a defense, and a pitcher, remains unmatched. After that, the Mariners have a solid group of guys, from power hitting Richie Sexson to the talented Adrian Beltre. Raul Ibanez puts up consistently solid numbers, as does new addition Brad Wilkerson, who will take over for Jose Guillen, and Yuniesky Betancourt showed incredible prowess with the glove last year, and some talent with the bat as well. The Mariners have a nice, if unspectacular, offense that has a little bit of everything: power, speed, average.

But where the Mariners really made the splash this year was in the rotation. Felix Hernandez, King Felix, is about as dynamic a young pitcher as there is in a the game. Last year, he went from having the talent to showing the talent, and living up to the expectations. Now, King Felix will be joined by Erik Bedard, the former lefty ace from the Orioles. Bedard is the real deal, a top of the rotation, top of the line starter, who will give the Mariners innings, wins, and another presence to take the pressure off of Hernandez. The truth is, right now, the Mariners may in fact feature the best 1-2 combo in the sport. Both Bedard and Hernandez are ace starters. Their presence makes the Carlos Silva signing palatable and Jarrod Washburn, never a top of the rotation guy, fills out the 4th place spot nicely. Last year, the lineup was solid, the bullpen very good, with JJ Putz establishing himself as one of the best closers in the game, but the rotation was just too weak to compete on a nightly basis. Now, with Bedard and Hernandez, the Mariners will go into almost every week believeing that, in two of the next five games, they have the advantage. If they just win a few of the other ones, it could be a pretty special year for the Mariners.

L.A. Angels: When the offseason came for the Angels, the common consensus was that they were the odds on favorites to win the A-Rod sweepstakes. When Rodriguez opted out of his contract before the end of the World Series, it seemed all that remained was for Art Moreno to open that big ol'check book of his, and bring in the bat that put the team over the top. But we know the end of that story. A-Rod stayed, the Angels failed to secure their power bat for the middle of the lineup, and many of the same questions remain in 08 that sprung up in 07.

But the Angels didn't just sit pat this offseason. No, they didn't grab A-Rod or Miguel Cabrera to hit behind Valdy the impaler, but they did grab Tori Hunter. Now, this will mark the second year in a row that the Angels overpaid an outfielder coming off a career year, one they probably will not be able to duplicate any time soon. Last year, the Angels overpaid for Gary Matthews Jr. This year, Hunter.

But while Matthews may not have been worth all the money he got from the Halos, his numbers were still decent. Hunter is a better player, and will man centerfield for the Angels, moving Matthews over to left. Vlady will stay in right, meaning the Angels outfield D will potentially be the best in the majors. In the infield, all world talent Howie Kendrick will have his first full season in the majors and may make the leap to superstar this year. Casey Kotchman is another one of the young Angels who has the potential to be that power bat behind Vlady the team has been looking for, while Chone Figgins looks to return to his 2006 form as Mr. Everything for the team. Garret Anderson will remain the DH. Right now, it appears the lineup will be Figgins, Matthews, Vlady, Anderson, Hunter, Kotchman, Kendrick, Erik Aybar. It might not feature a bat like A-Rod to back up Vlady, but there is no question it is more talented, and more versatile than it previously had been.

As with every other year, however, the season for the Angels will come down to pitching, and the rotation and the bullpen remains deep. The Angels starters may not feature a Santana or a Beckett, a bonafide ace, but John Lackey is just below that level. He is as consistent a starter as there is in the game, and he is a proven winner. Jared Weaver may be the most talented of the bunch, but after looking like a number one in the making two years ago, Weaver took a step back last year, going through a mini sophomore slump. Does he rebound this year? After that, there aren't a lot of holes in this rotation. Jon Garland is talented and proven, coming over from the White Sox this year, Ervin Santana is a Cy Young winner at home, almost unwatchable on the road. If he can at least pitch decently on the road, and translate some of that home cooking, he could be a HUGE pitcher for the Angels. Rounding out the rotation should be Joe Saunders.

The bullpen looks to be just as formidable, with K-Rod holding down the closer role (for this year at least), and Scott Shields setting him up.

This may be the best Angels team in years. The offense will be better than it has been in years past, and the rotation could be even more formidable as both Weaver and Santana could improve. The Mariners will offer the Angels everything they can handle, but this Angels team might just be too much to handle. Before all is said and done, they may be the most difficult to beat in a short series.

Prediction: Angels

Mariners

Rangers

A's

Best player in the division: Ichiro Suzuki

Best pitcher in the division: Felix Hernandez

Comeback player of the year: Hank Blalock

Here's to you Donnie Baseball

If you are in your late 20's and early to mid 30's and a Yankee's fan, chances are you are a fan and an admirer of one Don Mattingly. In fact, chances are, at one time, you considered Mattingly your idol.

In a time long removed from the glitz of the dynasty, the four rings, the trips down the Canyon of Heroes, the melodramatic response to not winning a world series in seven years, the Yankees was a rutterless ship heading swiftly towards irrelevance. From 1981 to 1995 the team made not one appearance in the postseason, not one, and had not even flirted with a championship caliber team. The 1980's and a good portion of the 1990s was defined by bad trades, disgruntled veterans, scandals involving the team's owner, George Steinbrenner, a depleted farm system and a wayward direction for the future. In 1985 the Yankees won 95 games but missed the playoffs because of the Red Sox. It was their one bright moment, their one moment to shine. Before, and after, was disaterous, culminating in 1990 when the Yanks finished in last place.

Free agents Greg Maddux and Barry Bonds flirted with the Yankees in their walk years, pretending to be only days away from making the Bronx their home. The truth is, neither superstar had any intention of entering the Bronx. They simply looked to the Yankees to ratchet up the offers they received from the teams for which they truly wanted to play. It was a dead time in the Bronx. It was miserable.

In the midst of all of that was Don Mattingly.

Donnie Baseball was a GREAT player. From 1984 to 1990 you can make the case that Mattingly was the best player in the game. He had a lightning quick bat. He had power to all fields. He was a clutch player who seemed to be at his best when the team needed him the most. He was elegant at first base, playing the position to perfection. He had a cannon for an arm. And he played the game hard every single day, every single moment of every single game. There was no half way or part way for Donnie. He pushed his body and his talent to the limit.

While other players were playing to get out of the Bronx or going out of their way to express their unhappiness with the Yankees, Mattingly took the losing like a man. He never demanded a trade. He never demanded the team get better around him. He handled himself with class and dignity from day one. He was the face of the team, its true captain because of the way he carried himself. In an age where athletes proved time and again that their flaws are just as, or even more pronounced than the rest of us, Mattingly proved to be as good as person as he was a ballplayer.

And then Mattingly hurt his back.

The injury plagued him for the remaining six or seven years of his career. It turned a sure fire hall of fame career into one just on the outskirts of Cooperstown. It turned Mattingly into an aged veteran well before his time and it robbed Yankee fans of the thrill of watching Donnie Baseball at his best.

Yet Mattingly still played as hard and as focused as ever, trying desperately to help his undermanned and overmatched team succeed any way he could. The thrill of watching Mattingly's talents on display each day was replaced by the reverance one was forced to have for a man who refused to equivocate.

And then 1995 came.

The Yankees won the leagues first wild card spot in the playoffs and Mattingly, at 35, found new life, hitting .417 in the Division Series against the Mariners and resembling the star player Yankee fans had grown to love. The Yanks blew a two games to none lead and were ushered into the offseason when Ken Griffey, Jr. slid safely home in Game 5. Mattingly stepped away at the end of the year, retired from the sport he had loved for so long, one year before the Yanks went on their remarkable run of division titles and world series championships.

It has always seemed strange to me that Mattingly decided to step away from baseball at 35 off a year where the veteran seemed to figure out how to recapture a good portion of his power and health. I always assumed that the Yankees, looking to get younger at first base and wanting to separate themselves from the past, put pressure on Donnie to step away and Mattingly, the pride and power of the Yankees for so long, couldn't imagine going to another team.

But now, as Mattingly's second career as a manager has been derailed both by the Yankee decision to hire Joe Girardi over Donnie this fall and his departure from the Dodgers where he was to serve as Joe Torre's hitting coach, new revelations have to come to light.

Mattingly, who seems tailored made for a job in baseball as a manager, is stepping away because of personal problems. He and his wife of more than 25 years, Kim, are getting a divorce, but the circumstances surrounding that divorce seem to be messy. Kim Mattingly evidently has a drinking problem, one she has been dealing with for years. That drinking problem has evidently not only contributed to the divorce, but has become such a burden to the family that Mattingly feels his place must be with his children.

But the divorce has also revealed that this is not the first time Mattingly has been forced to choose his family over his career. Reports now indicate that Mattingly would have continued to play after 1995 and beyond had his wife not become more and more of an alcoholic. It was, as some friends have called it, a "major factor" in his decision to step away, as was chronicled by Jonathan Lemire of The Daily News today in his sad article about the problems Mattingly faces today.

As a Yankee fan, Mattingly's departure from the team always left a small hole of regret in those championship years for me. It seemed as if Mattingly was owed at least one of those championships. However, Tino Martinez's stellar play and the belief that Mattingly had given all he had left in that division series lessened the blow.

But now, knowing that Mattingly could have potentially played years past that 1995 season, and could have joined in on the dynasty run, saddens me to no end. He was robbed of his opportunity by problems that were outside of his control, and Donnie made the sacrifices necessary to try and save his family and protect his children.

Now, Mattingly's career is again on hold, but my hope is not for too long. I was a proponent of Mattingly getting the Yankee job when it became open last year, but as the good Lord would have it, being passed up for Joe Girardi was probably the best thing for him and for the team.

I hope, for Donnie's sake, that this sabaticle from the game does not last long and that Mattingly gets another opportunity to coach soon. The man deserves a break, and it doesn't seem like life has been too willing to give him one over these last few years. I never thought I could handle seeing Donnie Baseball in another team's uniform, but my sincere hope is that Donnie lands in a great spot, with a good franchise, with a chance to win a championship of his own sooner rather than later.

Besides, no matter where he goes, no matter what he does, Don Mattingly will always be a New York Yankee.

2008 Baseball Season Preview #3 - NL East

There is something brewing in the NL East.

For years, the team that dominated this league was the Atlanta Braves. Each year, you could set an egg timer to the amount of games it would take for them to distance themselves from the rest of the pack. They OWNED the Mets, routinely held off game Florida Marlins teams for the division title, and put an upstart Phillies' team in their place a few times.

But rebuilding (to a certain extent) has caught up to the Braves, meaning that, for the foreseeable future they are the third team in this division, and a new, chippier, more emotional rivalry is brewing between those Amazin Mets and the Phillies. You can just hear Jimmy Rollins talking boasting about something right now, can't you?

Washington Nationals: They have a new ball park and, by all accounts, it looks gorgeous. Situated right on the shores of the Potomac, the stadium gets the Nats out of a football stadium and into a stadium made for baseball. It should open up new revenue streams, as will their new television contract deal. People LOVE going to new stadiums, and since Washington D.C. is also one of the more popular tourist attractions, the stadium should see a packed house, at least for a while.

But what kind of team will people be watching? The Nationals, under GM Jim Bowden, are one of the more confusing teams in the league. First, Bowden completely overplayed his hand two years ago when he had the blue chip of all blue chips, Alfonso Soriano. Bowden was determined to get a king's ransom and, instead, ended up with nothing at all. Where is the young talent? Ryan Zimmerman looks to be the only true young, exciting played on the roster. Lastings Milledge? Possibly. His attitude may cloud judgement as to what kind of player he can be, but that attitude may actually effect what kind of levels he does eventually reach. He could join Zimmerman as the second "stud" youngster, or his flambouyant personality and arrogant belief in himself could derail him in D.C. as well. After that, the pickings are slim. Instead of trying to go young and build for the future, Bowden has put together a team of pretty much has-beens, many of whome weren't much to write home about even when they were in their prime.

Paul LoDuca's mouth has always been bigger than his bat, something the Mets concluded last year when they opted to trade for a catcher rather than resign LoDuca. Add on his penchant for injecting himself with HGH and that signing looks to be another Bowden special. Dmitri Young, Ronnie Belliard, Christian Guzman, and Wily Mo Pena make up the bulk of the lineup, with a capable Austin Kearns thrown in, backed up by the equally unimpressive bench of Nick Johnson, Aaron Boone and Elijah Dukes. This is a team building for the future?

The pitching is equally thin, with John Paterson the only legit pitcher in a bunch that includes the likes of Jason Bergman, Shawn Hill, and Matt Chico. With starting pitching like that, who, exactly, cares that Bowden decided to hang on to quality closer Chad Cordero, who should get about as many chances to close a game as Britney Spears will at Mother of the Year honors.

What is truly sad is the fact that the Nationals took over a Montreal Expos franchise that routinely had one of the best farm systems in baseball, and under Bowden, a GM cut from the Isiah Thomas cloth, that has been completely dismantled from the inside out. This is a team going now where, but they'll be doing it in new digs this year. Word to the Nationals ownership: you upgraded the building, now upgrade the front office. Get some smart, fresh faces in there and give your fans something to root for in the future.

Florida Marlins: Why do I like the Marlins more than the Nationals? Because I like Scott Olsen and Anibal Sanchez more than any starter on the Nationals. Because Hanley Ramirez is one of the best short stops in the game today and an MVP caliber player. Because Dan Uggla has the chance to be Chase Utley. Because Josh Wilingham can be the real deal. Because the Marlins always seem to play with an intensity and a passion that isn't reflected in the standings. And because the ball seems to be moving forward on their new stadium deal (bouyed by the Rays new deal just announced weeks ago) and that could infuse the team with a sense of hope for the future.

Now, don't get me wrong, the Marlins aren't poised for a 2006 caliber season. They aren't shocking anyone. They aren't contending. They have lost WAYYYY too much for that. We know about Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera going to Tigers, but equally devastating has been the loss of Josh Johnson, who will most likely spend all of '08 recovering from Tommy John surgery. That leaves a thin starting rotation behind Olsen and Sanchez, and an even more unproven bullpen backing them up, with Kevin Gregg slotted to be the closer.

When Johnson is fully recovered, the Marlins finally have a new home, and the team can begin to sign some of their top talent rather than treat their franchise like a rotatine door for players, then the Marlins can make the NL East a three team race again, but right now they will spend 2008 battling the Nationals for that fourth place finish.

Atlanta Braves: You don't make your bones in journalism by betting against certain teams, and one of those teams is the Atlanta Braves. This team will be solid, there is no question about that. They have some young players and some proven vets that still remember what it was like to dominate the division. The big three of Mark Texierera, Brian McCann and Chipper Jones will keep a young, talented lineup moving forward as long as Kelly Johnson continues to show he can progress from his very nice rookie season, and Jeff Francoeur continues to defy every stat geek in America in put up solid run production numbers despite his terrible OBP (want to see a Bill James, stat head follower's head explode? Tell them you think Francoeur is a top notch player. They'll beat you with their calculator and pocket protector).

The lineup should be fine, but the interesting thing will be the rotation. If this were 1997, this rotation would be one for the ages. John Smoltz will be followed up by Tim Hudson, who had a terrific bounce back year last year, and old friend Tom Glavine who, after helping the Mets finish off the greatest single collapse in the history of baseball, finally arrived home in Atlanta, where he always wanted to be. How much does Glavine have left? Towards the end, with the Mets, it didn't appear much, however a return home could revitalize him. How about Smoltz, how many more years can he continue to produce at an ace-caliber level? Then, at the back of the rotation, sits one Mike Hampton. Yes, that Mike Hampton. Does HE have ANYTHING left? Again, if this were 1997 the rotation would be historic. But right now, it simply looks old. Hampton has been done for years, Glavine is, at best, on his last leg, and Smoltz has already spit in the eye of father time a couple of instances already. Hudson seems to be a solid bet to stay solid, but will his geriatric compadres follow suit?

The other question, in my mind, will be whether Atlanta plans on signing Texieria to an exstention, which promises to be expensive, and, if not, whether they would consider trading him before the July 31 deadline.

If someone finds the fountain of youth in the next two months, the Braves might bring home another division title, but chances are the Braves are just too long in the tooth in the rotation to compete at the top level. (BTW, the Braves should sign Texieira to an extension. I understand that it will be expensive, but the truth is the Braves need a stabalizing force in that lineup and Texieira can be that for years to come, especially when Chipper goes the way of the dodo.)

New York Mets: Oh, my friends from Queens aint gonna be happy about this, but there are two main reasons why I am picking the Mets to come in second in the division. One, I am just not convinced this lineup can produce at a top level and, two, I don't believe that this rotation, behind Santana, will be as good as people think. I also believe that you have to beat the champ in order to be the champ, and the Phillies are the champs of the East.

Okay, we all know who the Mets traded for this offseason. I don't believe I have commented on this much, but the trade for Mr. Santana is one of the all time one sided transactions I have ever, ever seen. Not only did the Mets get Santana, but they didn't give up one player that was invaluable in their organization, and even got the opportunity to keep their two most prized minor leaguers in Mike Pelfrey and Francisco Martinez. But who comes in after Santana in the rotation?

Pedro Martinez is healthy and ready for the season, but when is the last time Martinez a.) showed he could be a consistently dominate pitcher and b.) showed he could stay somewhat healthy throughout a year? The answer is YEARS! So, suddenly, this year, Pedro is gonna start 30 games? And how much does Pedro have in that skinny little arm of his? He is a year older, yah know. Can he really be a number 2 in this league? After that, the Mets have Oliver Perez and John Maine, both of whom are equally average, with Perez always a candidate to implode and resemble the pitcher the Pirates were ready to FedEx to any team willing to cover the shipping costs two years ago. And how about El Duque? What is the over-under on El Duque's actual age? I would say it has to be 46, right? Heck, he might be Julio Franco's older brother for all we know. El Duques hasn't been injury free his entire career and has been exceptionally brittle the last few years. At this point, there is no guarantee that El Duque will even finish the first half of the season.

You know what you're gonna get from Johan, and John Maine has been solid, but there is a lot riding on the spaghetti arm of Pedro and, if he proves as unreliable and injury prone this year as he has been the last two years, I'm not sure the Mets have enough, especially with the always shaky Billy Wagner closing down games.

And how about this lineup?

Well, even though Jose Reyes had a horrible end to the year, both in production and concentration, he is still one of the most dynamic players in the game, and should have a huge year, as should David Wright, who has become one of the best third basemen in the league. Add in Carlos Beltran and the Mets have three potentially spectacular players. But after that, the Mets have a lot of question marks. Can any really expect Moises Alou to play close to 100 games this year? Is Ryan Church an every day player in this league and someone good enough to hold down the right field spot all year long? Can Brian Schneider give you anything at catcher? And, the million dollar question, was last year simply a down year for one Carlos Delgado or a sign of things to come?

As much as Pedro is the key to the rotation, Delgado is the key to the lineup. If he returns to 2006 form, the Mets could be a run-away train. If he continues to decline, it could leave Reyes, Wright, and Beltran all alone on an island.

Philadelphia Phillies: Jimmy Rollins said it, now I believe it. Last year, Rollins said the Phillies were the team to beat, and while it took until the last game of the season for that to ring true, Rollins' confidence was proven legit. Now, Rollins says the Phillies will win 100 games. Sign me up Jimmy, I'm with yah baby.

Now, I don't think they Phillies are gonna win 100 games, but I think they are gonna win one more game than the Mets, and that might be pretty darn close to the century mark. Why are the Phillies the team to beat in 2008?

The lineup is stacked. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, a rejuvinated Pat Burrel, the speedy Shane Victorino and newly acquired Pedro Feliz, who was one of San Francisco's best hitters last year, gives the Phillies more weapons and less question marks in the everyday lineup than the Mets. In fact, the Phillies have three guys - Howard, Utley, and Rollins - who could all challenge for an MVP.

But the biggest difference between this team and last year's team may very well be a guy in the bullpen many people have counted out. Brad Lidge has come over to the Phillies to become the closer for the Phillies. What does that do? A couple of important things: it lengthens the bullpen, moving Tom Gordon to the setup role andJC Romero and Ryan Madson to a nice one-two punch in the sixth/seventh innings. It also improves the rotation. Last year, Bret Myer had to move from the rotation to the bullpen in order to secure the closer role. Now, Myer can move back into the rotation, giving the Phillies a one-two punch of Cole Hamels and Bret Myers, as talented a first two in the rotation there is in the league. Couple that with the ageless Jamie Moyer and the exciting Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies have a deeper rotation than anyone else in the league.

That's a lot of pressure on Lidge to perform, and pressure has seemingly been his albatross, but there is something about Lidge that makes you want to root for him, and something about his persistence that makes you think he can rebound in a big way. If he does, the Phillies are the best team in the NL East.

Prediction: Phillies

Mets

Braves

Marlins

Nationals

Best player in the division: Hanley Ramirez

Best pitcher in the division: Johan Santana

Comeback player of the year: Scott Olsen

MVP of the league: Alfonso Soriano

Cy Young Award: Johan Santana

Wild Card winner: New York Mets

Part 2, 2008 Baseball Season Preview.........NL Central

Last week, I previewed the NL West. This week, it is the NL Central's turn. Despite turning out the only NL World Series champion in the last several years in the St. Louis Cardinals and two of the last three representatives in the big dance, the NL Central is sort of the forgotten, maligned, redheaded step child of the National League. It just doesn't seem that ANY team in the Central is getting a whole lot of credit. But one team may have every reason to believe this is their year to shine, and it may just be that they have the best chance to represent the NL Central in the playoffs this year. But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Do you realize there is an entire generation of baseball fans who A.) don't realize that one Barry Bonds, a skinny kid with power and lightning speed, once played for the Pirates, that B.) Bobby Bonilia was once considered a stud player and was coveted by the New York Mets (I was at a game, when Bobby B was with the Pirates, where Mets fans were chanting his name), proving that everyone MUST be careful what they wish for and C.) That there was a player named Andy vanSlyke who was pretty damn good? That is how bad the Pirates have been for nearly 20 years now. They have been a team in utter chaos, offering their fanbase nothing to root for. Fanbase? Actually, how could one expect there to BE a fanbase left in Pittsburgh? Seriously, at this point, there are kids getting ready to go to college who have NEVER seen the Pirates play meaningful baseball in their lives. There are kids getting ready to GRADUATE from college who may have some vague recollection of their team being decent.

Well, 2008 promises to be more of the same, unfortunately.

Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell make for a capable, and relatively young, one-two punch that gave opposing lineups trouble last year, and Damaso Marte was able to prove himself an effective set-up man for Matt Capps last year. But the rest of the bullpen and rotation are thin, with the likes of washed up Matt Morris and never washed Zack Duke holding down spots in the one through five. And the lineup really isn't anything to write home about either. Jason Bay is the only legit, big time player on the team, but he has been grumbling for some time now, and it certainly isn't beyond all comprehension that Bay will end the 2008 season in a different uniform than the one he began with. After that, Xavier Nady is a nice player, as is Freddy Sanchez, and Adam LaRoche is one of those professional, solid players who will be around for a long, long time, but there is, as one would expect, a unique lack of star power on this team, especially for this new era in baseball where even the bottom dwellers seem to have two or even three star quality players to point to.

The Pirates season promises to be another in a long line of "hey, they still have a team there" types of seasons. The fanbase, what it is, deserves better.

Houston Astros: If anyone is looking, and no one was, when I made out my predictions for last year, I picked the Astros to win the division. Admitting that kinda makes me feel like Hugh Grant admitting that he had solicited a prostitute who looked like Charles Oakley after a 36 hour run at a Vegas Casino. Sometimes, it might just be better to deny, deny, deny.

So, this year, I am looking for the Astros to have the type of season they deserve to have after screwing me so badly last year. I don't like this team. I especially don't like their pitching. I don't like the move they made getting Miguel Tejada because Tejada may be facing criminal charges over his lying to a federal grand jury about his HGH use in the past. I don't like this team's bullpen, and I don't think that any team can just win trying to outslug every team they face, especially if the offense just isn't that great.

Don't get me wrong, there is some talent in that lineup. Assuming that Tejada isn't forced to go Harrison Ford in Fugitive on everyone at some point in the summer, joining him with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, a revitalized Kaz Matsui, and the up and coming Hunter Pence should get the Stros a good amount of wins they were looking at when they put this team together: 8-7 slug fests. My problem is that I truly believe they will be at the wrong end of a lot of those decisions this year.

Roy Oswalt is still a master, and one of the best pitchers in the game, but after that you have Woody Williams, a shaky third starter, never mind a number two, Wayne Rodriguez, Brandon Bracke, and Felipe Paulino, the one "upside" youngster they have this year. That isn't exactly a HOF caliber 2-5 with which the Astros have surrounded Oswalt. And, if you're looking for the bullpen to save their ass and pitch them to glory, you have another thing coming. Doug Brocail is the setup man to Jose Valverde. That's right Houston, you're gonna get your 8-7 games, you're just not gonna win too many of them.

St. Louis Cardinals: A team just removed from a world series title by one year, and they are at the bottom of the league? Yepper. Have you taken a look at what St. Louis lost and WHAT they brought back?

No team has had the type of turnover the Cardinals have had. Bye bye long time Red Birds' Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen. See yah later to Preston Wilson and David Eckstein. Nope, these aren't your 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. They ain't even your 2007 squad. This team has had an overhaul, and I don't know if all the pieces are gonna fit.

Of course, the mainstay of the team, Albert Pujols, is there, and promises to add another HOF caliber year to his already amazing resume. The red birds traded for Troy Glaus to take over for Scott Rolen, whose obvious dislike for manager Tony LaRussa (who seemed all too willing to return the favor) made staying in St. Louis almost an impossibility. Youngsters' Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan will make up the bulk of the Cardinal outfield, and many within the organization hope, and feel, that they are the future of the team. That is a big if.

But this team's failures have everything to do with injuries and turnover and little to do with everyday players. The Cardinals will start the season with Adam Wainwright as their ace. That's because Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder (who may never be healthy again in his career) are both out until probably close to the All Star game. Look at the rotation the red birds will trot out there for the first half of the season. Wainwright, Braden Looper - another failed closer, whom Mets fans remember well - Joel Piniero, on his 8th team in the last two seasons it seems like, Anthony Reyes and Matt Clement. Are you kidding me? The bullpen is still manned by Izzy, Jason Isringhausen, and Ryan Franklin should find a home as a set-up man, but you have to GET to the bullpen first, before they can have an impact.

With everyone healthy, I still think the Cardinals are an average team, at best. Pujols and Glaus should provide some power and offense, but who knows how Ankiel will respond and how Duncan will be in year two. And without Carpenter or even Mulder, the rotation is just too weak. This will be a long season in St. Louis, one that will find the Cards battling the Astros for the fifth spot.

Cincinnatti Reds: Every year I root for the Reds to be good and almost every year I am disappointed. Maybe it's because I just love the uniforms, the history of the ball club, and Ken Griffey Jr. Or, maybe it's because I am always taken in by the younger talent they seem to trot out there every year. This year? I think they are right on the cusp.

The mix is really good. If Griffey can stay healthy, as he did for most of the season last year, and Dunn can do what Dunn does, which is mash, those two will anchor what is a very talented young lineup. Brandon Phillips estblished himself as one of the best young second basemen in the league. Edwin Encarnacion had a solid year last year, and many believe there is significant room to grow, while youngster Joey Votto will get a chance to man first base for an entire year, and prove that the impressive skill set he showed at the plater was not a fluke. Losing cinderella story Josh Hamilton to Texas in a trade was tough, and ultimately perhaps the wrong choice, because it forces Ryan Freel, best served as a "little of everything" utility guy to be an everyday player, that is until minor league player of the year Jay Bruce is ready for prime time. But that shouldn't stop the Reds from having a dynamic lineup overall.

Pitching? AHHHH, the big question, as it always is. If Bronson Arroyo can have the type of success he had in the first half of the season as opposed to the second, he could once again make a one-two punch of he and Aaron Harang, the team's bonafide ace, a tough matchup for opposing teams. But the big question mark is Homer Bailey. Think Phil Hughes of Joba Chamberlain or Clay Bucholtz when you think Homer Bailer. Yeah, he's that good. He has all the tools to be a top flight pitcher in this league. If he steps up, proves his worth, takes a leap towards being a top end type of guy, it makes the Reds very, very formidable. If not, they will probably have a hard time sustaining any long win streaks.

The bullpen received a shot in the arm with Francisco Cordero coming over from Texas (which sent Hamilton over to the Rangers, a large price to pay for a relief pitcher) and it gives them a legit end of the game guy to try and protect leads. The rest of the bullpen should be okay, with veteran pitchers David Weathers and Mike Stanton hopefully serving as back-up to the much younger, more talented reliever Jeremy Affeldt. And while new manager Dusty Baker isn't exactly Casey Stengal wrapped up in Tom Kelly, he is still a proven motivator with a world series appearance to his credit. That can't help but be a positive for this team who haven't sniffed the playoffs in years.

Watch this team, they should be a lot of fun and should give their fans something to root for down the stretch.

Milwaukee Brewers: You thought last year was gonna be their year, didn't yah? You could smell it. You could taste it. The mecca of Selig offspring was finally going to go back to the playoffs. But, then, everyone remembered they're the Brewers. They come from Milwaukee. They don't go to the playoffs. It isn't their thing.

Could this year be the year they forget who they are and ride off into the sunset? Maybe, but I don't think so.

I like everything the Brewers did this offseason. I like getting veteran players Jason Kendall and Mike Cameron. Neither one will be expected to be anything other than an add-on player, an environment that should allow them to thrive. Salomon Torres was a nice pick up, and should go well with new closer Eric Gagne. Yes, we all know how bad he was for the Red Sox, but he showed that he could stay healthy the entire year and, while in Texas, he had impressed, which is why he was traded for in the first place. It will be interesting to see how all the shifting and manuvering for new faces (rookie of the year Ryan Braun from third base to left field, Bill Hall from center field to third base, to make way for Cameron) will effect everyone on the field, and it will be interesting to see if anyone has a downslide to their numbers because of it, but assuming they do not, and assuming that Prince Fielder and JJ Hardy put up the numbers they did last year, that lineup promises to be a monster for starters to have to try and get through.

To me, the entire season for the Brew-crew comes down to Ben Sheets. When healthy, Sheets is one of the best pitchers in the game, a terrific talent. But can he stay healthy for an entire season? If he can, the rotation should be deep enough to challenge all year for the division and a playoff spot. Jeff Suppan, the veteran pitcher, had a little bit of an off year, but is still a solid pitcher who may have a bounce back performance in him for 2008. People in Milwaukee believe that Dave Bush is a better pitcher than his 5.12 ERA from last year indicates (more like his 2006, 4.41, 210 inning year) and, like Suppan, is a solid two or three pitcher in the NL, and how about Yovani Gallardo? The 21-year old showed some impressive stuff last year, pitching 110 innings and striking out 101. Can he be a stud youngster in the way of Jason Verlander or Felix Hernandez of a few years back? If so, the Brewers have the makings of a formidable rotation.

But what if Sheets has yet another injury ridden season?

That's why, to me, the Brewers will come up just short again. One pitcher can, and does, mean that much of a difference. Having Suppan and Bush as your two and three is no big deal with Sheets as your ace. Relying on Bush and Suppan to carry the entire load? Not very comforting.

The Brewers have all the pieces in place, and as long as they don't revert back to the Brew-crew of years past, where great young talent was developed then traded away as if it were a breeding ground for other teams, they will find themselves battling into October one of these years. Just not this year.

Chicago Cubs: It has been 100 years since the Cubs won the world series. Think of what this team making the series THIS year would mean? Think of the excitement. Think of the press coverage. It would be national news. It would transcend sports.

And I believe they are gonna have that chance to make the series this year because I believe they are the cream of the NL Central crop. They have the star quality: Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and ace pitcher Carlos Zambrano are all well-known, established, big time players in this league, all relatively young, all still in their primes, and all promise to be Cubs for a very long time. Geovany Soto will be the Cubs new, young catcher, and manager Lou Pinella evidently thinks the sky is the limit for this young man. Youngster's Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno, one time major prospects, have another chance to estblish themselves (with Cedeno by no means guaranteed a spot in the everyday lineup) and veteran Mark DeRosa will offer his leadership skills once again.

The rotation remains solid, with Ted Lilly as the team's number two starter, behind Zambrano, but should get all the competition he wants from rising star Rich Hall. Newly acquired Jon Lieber should help solidify the rotation and take some pressure of Jason Marquis, who has a world of talent but lacks consistency.

The interest will be in the bullpen.

Veterans Bob Howry, Scott Eyre and Ryan Dempster give the Cubs quality arms to get outs in the pen, but who, exactly, will the one for which they set up? Youngster Carlos Marmol has a lot of talent and could conceivably close, but my money is on Kerry Wood entering the new phase of his career as a dominant closer. The problems with injuries for Wood has been chronicled in great detail, but a transition to the pen should save his arm from the constant wear and tear a 200 inning season inflicts. It will also allow him to consistently throw 98 or better, with his devastating curve. Wood will be the last line of defense for this team, and, I believe, will prove himself to be invaluable in that role.

In the end, it will be the Cubbies taking the Central, and giving their fans a reason to believe, and dream, that 100 years is just the right amount of time to wait.

Predicition: Cubs

Brewers

Reds

Cardinals

Astros

Pirates

Best player in the division: Alfonso Soriano

Best pitcher in the division: Roy Oswalt

Comeback player of the division: Mike Cameron

Never underestimate stupidity...........

I just don't understand the mindset some people have that Joba being in the pen makes any sense whatsoever. It is the dumbest thing I have ever heard of. I mean, look at the arguements FOR Joba to be in the pen. None of them even hold the slightest bit of water:

The Yankees need an eighth inning guy to be the bridge to Mariano:

Am I missing something here? Have the Yankees NOT made the playoffs at some point in time the last seven years? Have they come in third at any point? And, also, have the Yanks lost ONE playoff series because of their eighth inning guy? ONE series?
The Yanks have made the playoffs every year for the past 7 (since the 2000 series) with a setup crew that has featured the likes of Tanyon Sturtze, Paul Quantrill, Tom Gordon, Scott Proctor, a nearly dead Mike Stanton, Kyle Farnsworth, Steve Karsay, a decaying Jeff Nelson, Ron Villone, Octavio Dotel, and Luis Vizcaino, just to name a few. Look at those names. There isn't a shut down, lights out guy among them. Yet, with the Yanks trotting those guys out in the seventh and eighth innings, they have MADE the playoffs each and every year, won the division every year except last year, and have not been knocked out of the playoffs ONCE because of that eighth inning bridge. What has knocked the Yanks out of the playoffs? Ummm, oh, I don't know, maybe a lack of FRONT LINE starting pitching. So, in the infinite wisdom of Brian Cashman, the yanks are going to take argueably their most talented overall pitcher and move him to a role on the team that is by no means as important? Please!!!!

You want to protect Joba's arm:

Why is pitching in the bullpen so much better for Joba's arm? Simply because of the innings? How about the constant use? I don't know, but I seem to recall Joe Torre wearing out a lot more relievers than starters in his time here. Why? Because of innings? No, because he used a guy two or three or four days straight. Having Joba in the pen doesn't mean you are protecting his arm, it simply means you are limiting innings. Well, less innings over a shorter period of time in more difficult situations (stress filled eighth inning moments) may actually do MORE HARM to his arm.

He will start in the pen and then move to the rotation:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Dumbest thing I have heard the Yanks say yet. So, let me get this straight, you are going to start Joba in the pen, make him the eighth inning guy, make him the bridge to Mariano, and then, in the middle of the season, you are going to send him down to the minors for a few weeks, have him stretch it out as a starter, and then use him as a starter for the second half of the season? How the he.ll does any of that make any sense?

First, wouldn't it be smarter to, oh, I don't know, START Joba in the first half see what you have, and THEN move him to the pen? What if he isn't that great in the rotation? Then, moving him back to the pen wouldn't be a big deal. You know what you would be getting from him there. But how could you possibly justify moving him out of the bullpen if he has been doing well, into the rotation with no guarantee as to how effective he could be, for a SECOND HALF RUN!!!!!!!!!! Idiotic.

Plus, let's face it, it is absurd to believe that the yanks are actually going to send Joba down to the minors, in the middle of what promises to be a hotly contested season, to get some reps in as a starter before coming back up. Oh yeah, I'm sure that would go over really well with the fans, the media, and the players. "Hey guys, know your busy fighting the Sox for first place and battling the Indians for the wild card, but just wanted to know if some of you could help bring some of Joba's things down to the car since he is gonna be going back to Scaranton for a while to work on his curve ball. Thanks fellas." Oh yeah, that would be some smart baseball.

If Joba starts the season in the pen, he FINISHES the season in the pen, case closed.

It is the only way to limit his innings:

HUH? Are people serious when they say this? This is sort of like saying "my car ran out of gas, so the only thing I could think to do was to smash the windows in and dump it in the pond, then claim it had been stolen to collect the insurance money." All those PHDs and supposedly smart baseball people, and NONE of them could conceive of a way to keep a pitcher's innings down without bouncing him around between the pen and the rotation like a ping pong ball on HGH?
Hey, let me take a stab at it. How about, oh, I don't know, JUST LIMITING HIS STARTS!!!!!!!!!!!!! How hard would it be to rest the kid every now and again? With Joba in, Kennedy would become the sixth starter, meaning that, from time to time, when the Yanks wanted to give Joba a rest, they could plug Kennedy in there. How hard is this? The Mets have been doing it for years with Pedro. In April, most of the time you don't even use your fifth starter because of the days off. Well, this time, just plug in that fifth starter. Then, in May, give the kid a few starts off, same thing in July, which would be even better because of the All Star break, and the kid should be fine to go.

Or, how about this, how about letting the kid get a few freakin innings under his belt, huh? I seem to remember the Tigers being cautious with Verlander but the kid PITCHED. He was big, strong, and worked through any dead arm issues. Now, he's a 200 innings a year pitcher. Why not let Joba have a stab at it? The kid is big and strong. Maybe you don't need to coddle him so much and maybe you need to let him pitch more than 140 innings this year. Maybe you let the kid play baseball. Maybe, Cashman, you put the pocket protector down for a minute and let a kid pitch. They used to actually do that in the old days, you know. Actually turned out okay for some people.

If you're one of the people sitting there thinking that I'm crazy and Joba NEEDS to be in the pen, ask yourself a few questions: 1.) name the other team in baseball that has their most talented, valueable young pitcher, who proved he could dominate as a starter in the minors and doesn't have a serious risk of injury issue, slated to be their eighth inning guy? If it was such a big, important position, you would think that most teams would have their best pitchers in that slot, right? 2.) what are the names of the CLOSERS, never mind the set up men, who have won championships over the last several years? Give up? Do names like Jenks, Wainwright, Foulke, and Looper ring a bell? You can win with pretty good bullpen pitching, you CAN'T win with okay starting pitching. 3.) how confident are you in the rotation Cash-Man has built for this year? Let's assume Pettite and Wang are stable and perform to their usual standards. With Joba in the pen, that leaves Hughes, Kennedy and Mussina. Let's look at this rationally. Hughes is the only one of the "big three" that showed himself to be exceptionally fragile, injuring himself twice last year. We are suppose to believe he is more of a lock to pitch deep into games and rack up innings without getting hurt than Joba is? Why, exactly? Joba didn't get hurt last year, Hughes did. Why is Hughes going to be more durable with more of a load. How about Kennedy? What, exactly, has this kid done to deserve any kind of confidence? He was with the team for a cup of coffee last year and didn't pitch in one meaningful game. He'll pitch in higher pressure games in the middle of April against the Sox this year. How about Mussina? The only reason we know what Kennedy looks like is because Mussina was so bad, was so washed up, Torre didn't think he could afford to put the dried up well of a pitcher on the mound anymore. Is anyone getting 200 innings from the body formerly known as The Moose? Wouldn't you want to keep your most talented pitcher in that kind of rotation to not only make it deeper, but give you a better chance to win games from the minute they begin, rather than hoping they get to the eighth inning on every other day so Joba can pitch? 4.) is it easier to replace Joba in the pen or in the rotation? I believe Joba has the chance, the makeup to be a Beckett, Peavy, Oswalt, Halladay type of lock down pitcher. He has the chance to be that rare pitcher: dominant and intimidating. That's what I believe and I think a lot of other people believe the same. So, let's ask it this way, would it be easier for the Sox to replace Beckett or Okajima? I would say Okajima is a little easier to replace, wouldn't you say? Or, how about this, has it been easier for the Yanks to replace the starters they had during their dynasty run, or the bullpen guys they had during that time? I don't know about you, but if you told me I could have this starting staff with the Stanton, Nelson, Mendoza, bullpen, or this bullpen with Cone, Wells, Hernandez, Pettite, I'll take them starters any day of the week and twice on Saturday.