I know Joe Torre wrote a book that really bothered a lot of people within the Yankee organization. I know Brian Cashman wasn't pleased that he was protrayed as a guy who became beholden to the designer stats of the day and, in the end, refused to stand up for Torre the way he had in the past. I know the Steinbrenner family was upset that Torre essentially outed how sick The Boss, George Steinbrenner, was by the time the 2007 season ended. We all know that Alex Rodriguez isn't a fan of Torre after his book painted the slugger as a self-absorbed prima donna who obsessed over Derek Jeter and couldn't come through in the clutch.
All of that is valid.
And, I know Joe Torre continues to hold a grudge against the Yankees for essentially forcing him out, but not having the guts to outright let him go for fear of the inevitable public relations backlash.
Again, valid.
However, if Joe Torre is truly done as a manager, and will now retreat to a job on television or, perhaps, with Major League Baseball, it is my hope that all old hard feelings subside and Torre can once again find a home with the Yankees.
Joe Torre is one of the great New York Yankees in history, as far as managers go. He led that team to four world championships. He was a part of a golden era for the Yankees, a dynasty, not just a string of good teams.
Some of his best managerial jobs came when the Yankees didn't even get out of the first round of the playoffs. If you have a chance on a slow Saturday afternoon (or a slow day at work) go check out the roster of the 2005 and 2006 teams, especially the starting rotations. Joe Girardi would have had a hard time winning 88 games with Aaron Small leading the way for half a season.
It's gotten somewhat foolish on the YES Network these days. Torre has been all but expunged from the Yankee history. There are no Yankeeography specials broadcast anymore. No more highlights of Torre crying after the 1996 championship. It's as if the Bombers managed themselves between 1996 and 2007.
But, what happens in the next six years when the Yankees want to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the '96 championship (my God, has it been that long) and everyone from Paul O'Neill to Tino Martinez, to Bernie Williams, to perhaps a recently retired Derek Jeter, show up at the stadium. Is Joe Torre going to be forgotten, even then?
Yogi Berra swore he would never set foot back in Yankee Stadium after George Steinbrenner calously fired one of the great Yankees of all time after only 17 games in 1982, and didn't even have the decency to speak to him personally. In 1999, he returned. Joe Torre is a Yankee icon. I hope for all our sake, and for his, this petty squabbling can be set aside and he can be welcomes back with open arms. The Yankees handled his departure about as poorly as possible. Torre perhaps could have been more diplomatic in his book about the Yankee years. Both share some of the blame for the split. Neither side did something so egregious that it should detract from what was acheived during those years. Joe Torre cannot be wiped off Yankee history. He had too much to do with writing that history, no matter what a schmuck like Michael Kay wants to believe.
A quick note about Donnie Baseball taking over as the Dodgers manager next year. I hope for his sake that the Dodgers get good again, and fast. I love Donnie and believe he will make a great manager. He knows the game, knows the players, and is one of the most respected guys in the sport. The idea that some Triple A guy in the Dodgers organization should have gotten the call over Mattingly is, to me, absurd. Donnie has been a long-time coach in this league, and was, at one time, one of the best players in the league, a guy who would have punched his ticket to Cooperstown easily had it not been for his back injuries. You honestly believe that some no-name Triple A guy is going to command more respect in the clubhouse than Don Mattingly? (yes, I'm looking at you when I say that, Edurado Perez)
What concerns me is the Dodgers. Frank McCourt is going through his blitzkrieg of a divorce and much of the speculation is that, for a team with talent, there will be little done in the offseason to compliment that talent and help the Dodgers regain NL West-leading form. If Donnie is given the right roster, I believe the Dodgers can once again be a contender. However, if the McCourt family's woes prevent any kind of action, I have no idea how, exactly, Donnie can turn that team around.
It will be tough, though, if Donnie starts to win, to see him celebrating in Dodger blue. Can we trade managers? Is that possible? Girardi for Mattingly, straight up?
Saturday, September 18
Sunday, September 5
Put the Phil Hughes Cy Young Winner celebratory cake on ice for a while.
I have not been a fan of Phil Hughes.
Part of my issue with him really has little to actually do with Hughes. He couldn't control how the Yankees promoted and hyped him, how they called him the "next Roger Clemens" (one assumes without the steroids), and how they refused to trade him for anyone. Listening to the breathless description of him as a pitcher, I was expecting to see a combination of Sandy Koufax and Jesus.
But, even though Hughes was lower on my favorite player totem pole, and even though I had serious arguements with my friends about The Franchise as a pitcher, I couldn't deny how Hughes started the season. April looked like the culmination of everything I had heard about Hughes. His fastball was exploding, his curve was 12-6, and he had great control. Unlike the other overhyped Yankee phenom, Joba Chamberlain, who was given his chance to start last year and failed, Hughes was efficient and effective every time out. My friends who insisted Hughes would find his feet crowed and I, as the Hughes detractor, admitted that I might have made a mistake. Maybe Hughes really was the next superstar pitcher in waiting.
Then May hit and things went back to normal.
In his first six starts of the season, Hughes was utterly brilliant, going 4-0 and producing a wonderful 1.38 ERA. Then, on May 17, he got bombed by the Red Sox and things have gone down hill from there. His June ERA was 5.17, his July ERA even worse at 5.52. In August, Hughes bounced back from being miserable to just being okay with a 4.22 ERA. As I write this, Hughes is making his first start in September and, so far, it is a normal Hughes start of three innings, two runs.
He has won 16 games because of the amazing run support he has received from the Yankee offense, almost 7 runs a game (the highest in the majors) and because the bullpen has, with the acquisition of Kerry Wood and the emergence of Boone Logan (who was finally given a chance to perform by the ever-inept Joe Girardi), become one of the best in the league.
Hughes supporters can talk about his wins all they want. They can also continue to insist that 24 is somehow too young to judge what a pitcher is or will be. The truth is, there is nothing on Phil Hughes' resume that would suggest he will ever be anything other than, at best, a third starter in this league.
His stuff is pedestrian. His fastball is 92 and straight, with a delivery that doesn't involve any deception at all. His curve is nice but certainly not devastating. His changeup, the pitch that supposedly earned him a spot in the rotation, doesn't exist, and his cutter is usually just a flat fastball.
I am not suggesting the Yankees trade Hughes (although I don't believe he or Joba should be untouchable) but it seems clear now that the most coveted Yankee pitching prospect in years is no more than Jon Garland in waiting. Considering they had a chance to trade for Johan Santana if they gave up on Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Ian Kennedy, it would appear the Yanks sorely misread yet another prospect.
Part of my issue with him really has little to actually do with Hughes. He couldn't control how the Yankees promoted and hyped him, how they called him the "next Roger Clemens" (one assumes without the steroids), and how they refused to trade him for anyone. Listening to the breathless description of him as a pitcher, I was expecting to see a combination of Sandy Koufax and Jesus.
But, even though Hughes was lower on my favorite player totem pole, and even though I had serious arguements with my friends about The Franchise as a pitcher, I couldn't deny how Hughes started the season. April looked like the culmination of everything I had heard about Hughes. His fastball was exploding, his curve was 12-6, and he had great control. Unlike the other overhyped Yankee phenom, Joba Chamberlain, who was given his chance to start last year and failed, Hughes was efficient and effective every time out. My friends who insisted Hughes would find his feet crowed and I, as the Hughes detractor, admitted that I might have made a mistake. Maybe Hughes really was the next superstar pitcher in waiting.
Then May hit and things went back to normal.
In his first six starts of the season, Hughes was utterly brilliant, going 4-0 and producing a wonderful 1.38 ERA. Then, on May 17, he got bombed by the Red Sox and things have gone down hill from there. His June ERA was 5.17, his July ERA even worse at 5.52. In August, Hughes bounced back from being miserable to just being okay with a 4.22 ERA. As I write this, Hughes is making his first start in September and, so far, it is a normal Hughes start of three innings, two runs.
He has won 16 games because of the amazing run support he has received from the Yankee offense, almost 7 runs a game (the highest in the majors) and because the bullpen has, with the acquisition of Kerry Wood and the emergence of Boone Logan (who was finally given a chance to perform by the ever-inept Joe Girardi), become one of the best in the league.
Hughes supporters can talk about his wins all they want. They can also continue to insist that 24 is somehow too young to judge what a pitcher is or will be. The truth is, there is nothing on Phil Hughes' resume that would suggest he will ever be anything other than, at best, a third starter in this league.
His stuff is pedestrian. His fastball is 92 and straight, with a delivery that doesn't involve any deception at all. His curve is nice but certainly not devastating. His changeup, the pitch that supposedly earned him a spot in the rotation, doesn't exist, and his cutter is usually just a flat fastball.
I am not suggesting the Yankees trade Hughes (although I don't believe he or Joba should be untouchable) but it seems clear now that the most coveted Yankee pitching prospect in years is no more than Jon Garland in waiting. Considering they had a chance to trade for Johan Santana if they gave up on Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Ian Kennedy, it would appear the Yanks sorely misread yet another prospect.
Thursday, August 19
Looking ahead, for the heck of it
Trust me, I get it.
The Yankees are tied for first place in the AL East and for the best record in baseball.
If you had to rank the likely World Series winner at this point in the season, you'd be hard pressed to slide anyone ahead of the Bombers.
Long story short, there is a whole heck of a lot to be interested in this season, like:
Will Andy Pettitte come back healthy?
How are the Yankees going to handle Phil Hughes and his innings limit in the midst of a pennant race?
Will AJ Burnett and Javier Vazquez find some consistency or continue to struggle?
Will Derek Jeter end the season on an up note, salvaging some of what has been his worst season as a professional?
Will Joba Chamberlain, Dave Robertson, and Kerry Wood make for a sturdy bridge to Mariano Rivera?
Will Joe Girardi's tendency to over manage cost the Yankees in September of the playoffs?
There are 40 plus games on the schedule that will help answer all of those questions.
Now, however, is right smack dab in the middle of August. These are the dog days. Pitchers have dead arm. Hitters seem to be slumping. Guys are getting rest, even when they might not need it. Everyone seems a little dinged up. What better time than to take the MAJOR leap forward and start to look at next year's roster. Who will be back, who will be gone, and who will be coming in. We'll take it position by position, looking at the starters, what chance they would be back, and who might replace them if their Yankee days are numbered.
First Base – Mark Teixeira
Chance of returning: 100%
This is as certain as it gets with the Yankees. He has a huge contract, so even if you wanted to move him, you can't. But, trust me, you don't want to move him. Teixeira is having a down year by his standards and is still on pace for very good run-production numbers. He shed the first three months of the season, where he fluctuated between mediocre and God-aweful, and has been one of the Yankees best hitters through the summer. Add on the fact that he is a gold glover at first and Tex will be a Yankee for a long, long time.
Possible replacement: No one.
Second Base – Robinson Cano
Chance of returning: 100%
Again, like Teixeira, this is a no-brainer. Cano has cooled off a little since his torrid start, and talk of him winning an MVP or batting title has subsided, but he is still unquestionably the best second baseman in the American League and probably only Chase Utley (when healthy) is comparable through the entire majors. And, he still has room to improve. You don't normally get the type of middle-of-the-lineup production Cano
produces from your second baseman, and the Yankees won't let go of their superstar middle infielder for anything.
Possible replacement: No one.
Short Stop – Derek Jeter
Chance of returning: 100%
Yes, he is having the worst statistical year of his career. There is no reason to even run down the numbers. Everything, across the board, is down, except maybe his defense.
Yes, he turned 36 this year and many players see their careers come to a quick and abrupt end around this time of life. Baseball might be a tough too fast for the Hall of Famer at this stage of the game.
Yet, we all know Jeter will be back in a Yankee uniform next season, and there are three very good reasons why: First, Jeter is iconic. You can make the argument that he is the most popular Yankee since Mickey Mantle, maybe even Joe Dimaggio. He remains one of the most marketable athletes in the world and that, in and of itself, makes any large contract for Jeter more than economically for the Yankees. There isn't a person in the front office, from Cashman on down, that wants to be remembered for letting Derek Jeter finish his career in another uniform.
Second, while the Yankees are paying A-Rod millions for each home run milestone, the true chase will be next year when Jeter rapidly approaches 3,000 hits. Right now, he is 14 away from 2,900 for his career. Considering there are 40 games to go, you can at least assume Jeter to average around a hit a game. That would put him at 2,926, or 84 hits away from the magic number. While home runs have been stained by the steroid era, 3,000 hits remains a magic number and a guaranteed place holder in the Hall. Add in the fact that no Yankee has ever gotten 3,000 hits and it will make his run that much more interesting and special.
Third, and finally, Jeter deserves a mulligan. Even Ty Cobb had a really bad year during his career. Granted, Jeter's age, and the wear and tear on his body after so many games over so many years, makes it more likely this is a downward trend rather than a bump in the road, he deserves the chance to prove he can rise to his level one or two more times before he calls it quits. He has been a great Yankee for 15 years. He has earned that right.
Possible replacement: No one.
Third Base – Alex Rodriguez
Chance of returning: 100%
Like Jeter, there are warning signs associated with A-Rod. He is 35. He is a step slower. His power numbers are way off, even with his three-homer explosion the other night. After years of being a iron man on the field, he is becoming more and more banged up. Yet, A-Rod is still a feared power hitter who drives in runs and keeps the wheels of the Yankee offensive machine churning. He still gives the Yankees both power and speed out of their fourth-place hitter, and he can devastate a game like no one else.
Also, like Jeter, A-Rod has been too good for too long not to throw this year out as an “oh well, it happens” kinda season and expect a bounce-back next year.
And, who are we kidding, even if the Yankees were desparate to get rid of Rodriguez, his contract (what's that for, 100 years?) makes it an impossibility.
Possible replacement: No one.
Catcher – Jorge Posada
Chance of returning: 30%
Before you start stomping up and down, screaming about how stupid it is to assume that Jorge will not be coming back, understand that the 30% represented what I believe to be Posada's chances of playing as the Yankee everyday catcher next year. I know Jorge is coming back, but I believe that, at this point, he will be coming back as the DH.
Look, it's no secret that most of the pitchers prefer to see someone else behind the plate. His defensive skills, never Johnny Bench-esque to begin with, have become woefully inadequate, and not just in terms of throwing baserunners out. He has a hard time blocking balls in the dirt, has had an inordinate number of passed balls and wild pitches scoot by this season, and the position just bangs the heck out of him. He still has a really good bat, one that remains important to the Yankee offense, but playing behind the plate doesn't do he, or the team, any good going forward.
Possible replacement: Jesus Montero
I just can't see the Yankees trading Montero this offseason, or keeping him down in the minors for another season. Yes, he started off very slowly, but he has been absolutely on fire the last month and a half of the season, devastating AAA pitching. This kid seems to be the real deal, a legit offensive superstar. As far as his catching skills, I can't comment on that, nor can most people because they haven't watched him day-to-day. He supposedly has a cannon for an arm and can call a good game. A lot of the criticisms have been about his size, but Joe Mauer is a big guy, as is Matt Wiener, and both of them seem to be turning out just fine. Montero could be just what the doctor ordered for the team offensively while continueing to progress under the tutelage of a veteran catcher at the major league level.
DH – Lance Berkman
Chance of returning: 10%
I don't see the Big Puma coming back to the Yankees after this season. He hasn't done very well since coming over but I have to believe someone out there will believe in Berkman and his home run potential enough to offer more than a Nick Johnson-esque one year, $5 option. Plus, I think the Yankees will be looking to slide someone else in there come next year.
Possible replacement: Jorge Posada
Right Field – Nick Swisher
Chance of returning: 90%
Swisher is just shy of 30, is cheap, has a few more years left on his contract, plays a good right field, and is having his best offensive year overall. So, why would the Yankees ever think about getting rid of him?
The truth is, I can't imagine Swishalicious going anywhere. He has become a fan favorite and, quite frankly, when you look at his numbers compared with other players at that position, he is more than holding his own.
But, Swisher is also not Teixeira or Cano (superstar caliber), nor is he Jeter or A-Rod (iconic legends). So, because of that, Swisher is only a 90% return kinda guy because, while he is likely to stay put, he isn't untouchable and the Yankees have proven over the years that, if you aren't untouchable, you are very much replaceable.
Possible replacement: No one jumps to mind, but, if the Yankees were to make a move it would have to be for a guy that trumps Swisher in all categories. Since no one really appears on the horizon in terms of free agency that fits such a description, you would have to think it would only be for an upgrade.
Center Field - Curtis Granderson
Chance of returning: 80%
I thought the Granderson trade was the steal of the offseason, but the Grandy Man has had a.......well......it's been a bad year. His average against lefties could only go up from the .174 he was hitting last year, but his just above .200 mark isn't exactly impressing the stat heads. Also, a lot of people thought, after Granderson smacked 30 homers playing half his games in the cavernous Comerica Park in Detroit, that 40 was a distinct possibility once he saw that short right porch in the Bronx. That, like so much else, hasn't materalized.
Yet, Granderson is a terrific center fielder, has provided some of the only speed on the team, and, since reworking his mechanics with Kevin Long, has been on a tear.
Granderson's year puts him on the "maybe" list of guys who could be moved in the right deal. He hasn't lived up to the potential, but who else are the Yankees going to get? Plus, with his new swing and new confidence, Granderson is poised to finish the year strong and one would have to feel confident he would bounce back next year with a much more Granderson-esque season.
Possible replacement: Brett Gardner
I could see this happening if the Yankees dealt Granderson away and brought in another left fielder. That would put Gardner back at his natural position in center. However, I don't buy this as happening. I think Granderson gets another shot at this. He has too much talent, too much potential, and I don't think you mix and match yet again, even off of a disappointing year.
Left Field – Brett Gardner
Chance of returning: 50%
Gardner is perhaps the hardest regular Yankee on which to get a read. Let's assume for a second that Granderson is back, and that Gardner does not simply make a move in positions. It comes down to whether the Yankees want to go into next season, and perhaps beyond, with His Grittiness in the outfield.
Reasons why Gardner will be back: he has had a very nice year with the bat, has gotten a lot of big hits for the team, has played very good defense in the outfield, and, with the aging legs of both Jeter and A-Rod, Gardner and Granderson real provide the only speed on the team, with Gardner being the only exceptionally fast player on the squad.
Reasons why Gardner will be gone: his good year has also ensured that he would be a valuable trade chip if the Yankees needed another player (especially a pitcher) and couldn't do it via free agency, his numbers have dropped off somewhat at the end of the year which could mean a late-season swoon might be in the making (not the type of last impression you want to make on your team), and he is playing the position of a guy a lot of people, including the Yankees, might covet in the off season (we'll talk about him in a minute).
If this were my team, Gardner would be back, but he fits the bill of the type of player always seemingly available in the Yankee system: good enough to warrant interest from other teams, not good enough to be a star so always on the chopping block.
Gun to my head, I say he is back.
Possible replacement: Carl Crawford
Crawford, finishing up his final year with the Tampa Bay Rays, will be a free agent. He has said as much and the team has all but admitted they don't plan to retain him (don't get me started on what a waste of a team it has become to allow a franchise to remain in Tampa). He is a better player than Gardner, pure and simple. He can steal the same amount of bases, hit for more power, hit for a higher average, and play just as good a left field. He also is still in his prime (29 years old) and buying in on guys who are proven but just entering their peak years (Teixeira, Swisher, CC Sabathia) has proven to work out well for the Yanks the last few years.
So, why would the Yanks pass?
A couple of reasons; first, the Yankees don't need a huge infusion of power into the lineup. They get A+ power numbers from first, second, third, and have the potential to get more out of center and short, if both guys have bounce-back years. Swisher in right provides plenty, himself, and Posada at DH is still capable of 20 or more homers, as might be youngster Montero, if given a chance. If you take the power away, Gardner and Crawford are much closer players. Second, while Crawford is one of the best players around right now, he plays a very aggressive, physical style, and has been doing so at the major league level for a while. His speed, which makes an exceptional player, might not last for much longer. Third, and perhaps most importantly, I don't believe the Yankees are going to splurge on two high-priced free agents and I honestly believe their focus will be on pitching. They are going to have a bigger need for it come next season. While Crawford, any way you shake it, would be an upgrade over Gardner, it would count more as a want rather than a need.
Because of that, I believe the Yankees pass on Crawford (who might end up in Boston) and go after another lefty ace in free agency, whose name may rhymn with knee.
Starting pitchers – CC Sabathia
Chance of returning: 100%
He is the ace of the staff and one of the best in the business. Rather than being scared off by the short Yankee Stadium porch in right field, he has made his home ballpark a true advantage, becoming almost unbeatable in the Bronx. He is a workhorse, has what seems to be a rubber arm, and gets better the bigger the moment. And, as Johan Santana struggles a bit with the Mets over in Queens, it looks like Brian Cashman may have made the right choice in passing on a trade for that lefty pitcher and, instead, targeting the big man.
Possible replacement: No one
Phil Hughes
Chance of returning: 100%
Of the three young starters the Yankees touted a few years ago (Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy) Hughes has turned out to be the most productive. While it still remains to be seen if Hughes will be the ace-quality starter he was in the early part of 2010, or the middle-of-the-rotation guy he has appeared to be for much of the rest of the season, his age, his price tag, his overall health, and his maturation in the system already, makes him a lock to be back next year.
Possible replacement: No one.
AJ Burnett
Chance of returning: 95%
This is probably 100%, but the Yankees might get so frustrated with Burnett and his on-again, off-again outing that they might be willing to eat most of his contract to get him off the roster. Yet, even though the Yankees are the only team in baseball capable of doing something like that, it is highly, highly unlikely. Burnett, after this season, has three more years left on what now seems like a odious $85 million contract. Who would be dumb enough to take that on, even if the Yankees were picking up most of the bill? The answer is no one.
Plus, on the positive side, Burnett remains one of the most talented throwers in the game and is perfectly capable of pitching a gem, or getting on a roll towards the end of the year and being one of the team's best performers. Because of that, it is highly unlikely the Yankees would be willing to part company.
Possible replacement: Ivan Nova
I personally believe the Yankees will look to add two new pitchers this offseason already (which I'll explain in a moment) so, if they traded Burnett, I think they would keep it cheap and promote from within. Nova is having an excellent year at AAA and would be in line to get a chance at the number 5 spot in the rotation.
Andy Pettitte
Chance of returning: 30%
If you had asked me this question eight weeks ago, I would have told you this percentage would be at about 80%. However, Pettitte, who has flirted with retirement for what seems like a decade straight now, always said he would pitch as long as he was healthy. Well, he was healthy all last year and through the All Star break this year. Now, however, he seems to be dealing with a groin injury that won't go away and the veteran lefty has shown real frustration when speaking about his rehab. Even if Pettitte comes back and pitches well at the end of the season, his current injury is probably enough to keep him from trying it again next year. At his age, the body might be telling him to shut it down.
Possible replacement: Ted Lilly, Joba Chamberlain
The Yankees were rumored to be interested in their former left handed pitcher at the trade deadline but backed away. As a free agent, and a little older, Lilly could be a nice stop-gap for either a youngster in the minors or another free agent pitcher down the road. He's a left hander, has pitched in New York and the ÅL East in the past, and would probably be amenable to coming back to where it all started for him. As far as Chamberlain, it is a possibility only in a pinch, in my opinion, but it is an option. The Yankees spent a lot of time “building” his arm up last year and he has remained injury free this season, albeit in the pen. I think they would look to keep him in his current role, but, if they needed to, he could be swung back into the rotation.
Javier Vazquez
Chance of returning: 3%
I don't have a lot of faith that Javy is coming back to the Yanks. His return has been okay but not triumphant. He is still shaky in the big game and he isn't exactly a fan favorite. Plus, Javy is going to be 35 and his stuff, including his velocity, has seemed to be down this year from even last year. Considering his track record would probably be enough to command a larger contract, both in terms of money and years, than the Yankees are willing to give up, it's hard to imagine the Vazquez experiment lasting more than a season.
Possible replacement: Cliff Lee
Is there a worse secret in baseball than that Cliff Lee wants to be a Yankee and the Yankees want Cliff Lee?The Bombers had a deal in place this trade deadline to bring Lee to the Bronx in exchange for Jesus Montero, so you know they are serious. Sabathia, who is one of Lee's best friends, has also not been very couy when asked whether Lee will want to sign with the Yankees come this winter. I think the Yankes, with Pettitte and Vazquez coming off the books, will have one big contract splash in them, and Lee, still only 31 and one of the best in the game, will be wearing pinstripes next season.
Closer – Mariano Rivera
Chance of returning: 100%
Unless Rivera wants to walk away after this year, he is coming back.
Forget the contract. Like Jeter, there is no way anyone is letting Rivera walk in the twilight of his career to another team. He will be back and, unless shown otherwise, will be just as good as always.
Possible replacement: No one.
Couple of notes here: I didn't tackle the bench players at all because they are fairly expendable. I doubt Austin Kearns comes back, wouldn't be surprised if Marcus Thames has a second go-around, and think that Pena would probably be back as your jack of all trades in the infield. Francisco Cervelli is an interesting case as his situation will be determined by how committed the Yankees are to Posada as their everyday DH, and how much rope they give a kid like Montero. As far as the pen, the only really interesting guys are Joba and Kerry Wood. I can't see the Yanks giving up on Robertson, although, if he were requested in a deal the Yankees desperately wanted, I doubt it would be a breaker, and I think Boone Logan might have secured a chance to be that lefty reliever the Yankees like to have. With Wood and Joba, I think Wood is gone, only because someone will offer him a closer roll, and I think Joba stays, although he will be offered in the right deal. In the end, Joba's talent is still enough to keep the Yanks coming back for more.
The Yankees are tied for first place in the AL East and for the best record in baseball.
If you had to rank the likely World Series winner at this point in the season, you'd be hard pressed to slide anyone ahead of the Bombers.
Long story short, there is a whole heck of a lot to be interested in this season, like:
Will Andy Pettitte come back healthy?
How are the Yankees going to handle Phil Hughes and his innings limit in the midst of a pennant race?
Will AJ Burnett and Javier Vazquez find some consistency or continue to struggle?
Will Derek Jeter end the season on an up note, salvaging some of what has been his worst season as a professional?
Will Joba Chamberlain, Dave Robertson, and Kerry Wood make for a sturdy bridge to Mariano Rivera?
Will Joe Girardi's tendency to over manage cost the Yankees in September of the playoffs?
There are 40 plus games on the schedule that will help answer all of those questions.
Now, however, is right smack dab in the middle of August. These are the dog days. Pitchers have dead arm. Hitters seem to be slumping. Guys are getting rest, even when they might not need it. Everyone seems a little dinged up. What better time than to take the MAJOR leap forward and start to look at next year's roster. Who will be back, who will be gone, and who will be coming in. We'll take it position by position, looking at the starters, what chance they would be back, and who might replace them if their Yankee days are numbered.
First Base – Mark Teixeira
Chance of returning: 100%
This is as certain as it gets with the Yankees. He has a huge contract, so even if you wanted to move him, you can't. But, trust me, you don't want to move him. Teixeira is having a down year by his standards and is still on pace for very good run-production numbers. He shed the first three months of the season, where he fluctuated between mediocre and God-aweful, and has been one of the Yankees best hitters through the summer. Add on the fact that he is a gold glover at first and Tex will be a Yankee for a long, long time.
Possible replacement: No one.
Second Base – Robinson Cano
Chance of returning: 100%
Again, like Teixeira, this is a no-brainer. Cano has cooled off a little since his torrid start, and talk of him winning an MVP or batting title has subsided, but he is still unquestionably the best second baseman in the American League and probably only Chase Utley (when healthy) is comparable through the entire majors. And, he still has room to improve. You don't normally get the type of middle-of-the-lineup production Cano
produces from your second baseman, and the Yankees won't let go of their superstar middle infielder for anything.
Possible replacement: No one.
Short Stop – Derek Jeter
Chance of returning: 100%
Yes, he is having the worst statistical year of his career. There is no reason to even run down the numbers. Everything, across the board, is down, except maybe his defense.
Yes, he turned 36 this year and many players see their careers come to a quick and abrupt end around this time of life. Baseball might be a tough too fast for the Hall of Famer at this stage of the game.
Yet, we all know Jeter will be back in a Yankee uniform next season, and there are three very good reasons why: First, Jeter is iconic. You can make the argument that he is the most popular Yankee since Mickey Mantle, maybe even Joe Dimaggio. He remains one of the most marketable athletes in the world and that, in and of itself, makes any large contract for Jeter more than economically for the Yankees. There isn't a person in the front office, from Cashman on down, that wants to be remembered for letting Derek Jeter finish his career in another uniform.
Second, while the Yankees are paying A-Rod millions for each home run milestone, the true chase will be next year when Jeter rapidly approaches 3,000 hits. Right now, he is 14 away from 2,900 for his career. Considering there are 40 games to go, you can at least assume Jeter to average around a hit a game. That would put him at 2,926, or 84 hits away from the magic number. While home runs have been stained by the steroid era, 3,000 hits remains a magic number and a guaranteed place holder in the Hall. Add in the fact that no Yankee has ever gotten 3,000 hits and it will make his run that much more interesting and special.
Third, and finally, Jeter deserves a mulligan. Even Ty Cobb had a really bad year during his career. Granted, Jeter's age, and the wear and tear on his body after so many games over so many years, makes it more likely this is a downward trend rather than a bump in the road, he deserves the chance to prove he can rise to his level one or two more times before he calls it quits. He has been a great Yankee for 15 years. He has earned that right.
Possible replacement: No one.
Third Base – Alex Rodriguez
Chance of returning: 100%
Like Jeter, there are warning signs associated with A-Rod. He is 35. He is a step slower. His power numbers are way off, even with his three-homer explosion the other night. After years of being a iron man on the field, he is becoming more and more banged up. Yet, A-Rod is still a feared power hitter who drives in runs and keeps the wheels of the Yankee offensive machine churning. He still gives the Yankees both power and speed out of their fourth-place hitter, and he can devastate a game like no one else.
Also, like Jeter, A-Rod has been too good for too long not to throw this year out as an “oh well, it happens” kinda season and expect a bounce-back next year.
And, who are we kidding, even if the Yankees were desparate to get rid of Rodriguez, his contract (what's that for, 100 years?) makes it an impossibility.
Possible replacement: No one.
Catcher – Jorge Posada
Chance of returning: 30%
Before you start stomping up and down, screaming about how stupid it is to assume that Jorge will not be coming back, understand that the 30% represented what I believe to be Posada's chances of playing as the Yankee everyday catcher next year. I know Jorge is coming back, but I believe that, at this point, he will be coming back as the DH.
Look, it's no secret that most of the pitchers prefer to see someone else behind the plate. His defensive skills, never Johnny Bench-esque to begin with, have become woefully inadequate, and not just in terms of throwing baserunners out. He has a hard time blocking balls in the dirt, has had an inordinate number of passed balls and wild pitches scoot by this season, and the position just bangs the heck out of him. He still has a really good bat, one that remains important to the Yankee offense, but playing behind the plate doesn't do he, or the team, any good going forward.
Possible replacement: Jesus Montero
I just can't see the Yankees trading Montero this offseason, or keeping him down in the minors for another season. Yes, he started off very slowly, but he has been absolutely on fire the last month and a half of the season, devastating AAA pitching. This kid seems to be the real deal, a legit offensive superstar. As far as his catching skills, I can't comment on that, nor can most people because they haven't watched him day-to-day. He supposedly has a cannon for an arm and can call a good game. A lot of the criticisms have been about his size, but Joe Mauer is a big guy, as is Matt Wiener, and both of them seem to be turning out just fine. Montero could be just what the doctor ordered for the team offensively while continueing to progress under the tutelage of a veteran catcher at the major league level.
DH – Lance Berkman
Chance of returning: 10%
I don't see the Big Puma coming back to the Yankees after this season. He hasn't done very well since coming over but I have to believe someone out there will believe in Berkman and his home run potential enough to offer more than a Nick Johnson-esque one year, $5 option. Plus, I think the Yankees will be looking to slide someone else in there come next year.
Possible replacement: Jorge Posada
Right Field – Nick Swisher
Chance of returning: 90%
Swisher is just shy of 30, is cheap, has a few more years left on his contract, plays a good right field, and is having his best offensive year overall. So, why would the Yankees ever think about getting rid of him?
The truth is, I can't imagine Swishalicious going anywhere. He has become a fan favorite and, quite frankly, when you look at his numbers compared with other players at that position, he is more than holding his own.
But, Swisher is also not Teixeira or Cano (superstar caliber), nor is he Jeter or A-Rod (iconic legends). So, because of that, Swisher is only a 90% return kinda guy because, while he is likely to stay put, he isn't untouchable and the Yankees have proven over the years that, if you aren't untouchable, you are very much replaceable.
Possible replacement: No one jumps to mind, but, if the Yankees were to make a move it would have to be for a guy that trumps Swisher in all categories. Since no one really appears on the horizon in terms of free agency that fits such a description, you would have to think it would only be for an upgrade.
Center Field - Curtis Granderson
Chance of returning: 80%
I thought the Granderson trade was the steal of the offseason, but the Grandy Man has had a.......well......it's been a bad year. His average against lefties could only go up from the .174 he was hitting last year, but his just above .200 mark isn't exactly impressing the stat heads. Also, a lot of people thought, after Granderson smacked 30 homers playing half his games in the cavernous Comerica Park in Detroit, that 40 was a distinct possibility once he saw that short right porch in the Bronx. That, like so much else, hasn't materalized.
Yet, Granderson is a terrific center fielder, has provided some of the only speed on the team, and, since reworking his mechanics with Kevin Long, has been on a tear.
Granderson's year puts him on the "maybe" list of guys who could be moved in the right deal. He hasn't lived up to the potential, but who else are the Yankees going to get? Plus, with his new swing and new confidence, Granderson is poised to finish the year strong and one would have to feel confident he would bounce back next year with a much more Granderson-esque season.
Possible replacement: Brett Gardner
I could see this happening if the Yankees dealt Granderson away and brought in another left fielder. That would put Gardner back at his natural position in center. However, I don't buy this as happening. I think Granderson gets another shot at this. He has too much talent, too much potential, and I don't think you mix and match yet again, even off of a disappointing year.
Left Field – Brett Gardner
Chance of returning: 50%
Gardner is perhaps the hardest regular Yankee on which to get a read. Let's assume for a second that Granderson is back, and that Gardner does not simply make a move in positions. It comes down to whether the Yankees want to go into next season, and perhaps beyond, with His Grittiness in the outfield.
Reasons why Gardner will be back: he has had a very nice year with the bat, has gotten a lot of big hits for the team, has played very good defense in the outfield, and, with the aging legs of both Jeter and A-Rod, Gardner and Granderson real provide the only speed on the team, with Gardner being the only exceptionally fast player on the squad.
Reasons why Gardner will be gone: his good year has also ensured that he would be a valuable trade chip if the Yankees needed another player (especially a pitcher) and couldn't do it via free agency, his numbers have dropped off somewhat at the end of the year which could mean a late-season swoon might be in the making (not the type of last impression you want to make on your team), and he is playing the position of a guy a lot of people, including the Yankees, might covet in the off season (we'll talk about him in a minute).
If this were my team, Gardner would be back, but he fits the bill of the type of player always seemingly available in the Yankee system: good enough to warrant interest from other teams, not good enough to be a star so always on the chopping block.
Gun to my head, I say he is back.
Possible replacement: Carl Crawford
Crawford, finishing up his final year with the Tampa Bay Rays, will be a free agent. He has said as much and the team has all but admitted they don't plan to retain him (don't get me started on what a waste of a team it has become to allow a franchise to remain in Tampa). He is a better player than Gardner, pure and simple. He can steal the same amount of bases, hit for more power, hit for a higher average, and play just as good a left field. He also is still in his prime (29 years old) and buying in on guys who are proven but just entering their peak years (Teixeira, Swisher, CC Sabathia) has proven to work out well for the Yanks the last few years.
So, why would the Yanks pass?
A couple of reasons; first, the Yankees don't need a huge infusion of power into the lineup. They get A+ power numbers from first, second, third, and have the potential to get more out of center and short, if both guys have bounce-back years. Swisher in right provides plenty, himself, and Posada at DH is still capable of 20 or more homers, as might be youngster Montero, if given a chance. If you take the power away, Gardner and Crawford are much closer players. Second, while Crawford is one of the best players around right now, he plays a very aggressive, physical style, and has been doing so at the major league level for a while. His speed, which makes an exceptional player, might not last for much longer. Third, and perhaps most importantly, I don't believe the Yankees are going to splurge on two high-priced free agents and I honestly believe their focus will be on pitching. They are going to have a bigger need for it come next season. While Crawford, any way you shake it, would be an upgrade over Gardner, it would count more as a want rather than a need.
Because of that, I believe the Yankees pass on Crawford (who might end up in Boston) and go after another lefty ace in free agency, whose name may rhymn with knee.
Starting pitchers – CC Sabathia
Chance of returning: 100%
He is the ace of the staff and one of the best in the business. Rather than being scared off by the short Yankee Stadium porch in right field, he has made his home ballpark a true advantage, becoming almost unbeatable in the Bronx. He is a workhorse, has what seems to be a rubber arm, and gets better the bigger the moment. And, as Johan Santana struggles a bit with the Mets over in Queens, it looks like Brian Cashman may have made the right choice in passing on a trade for that lefty pitcher and, instead, targeting the big man.
Possible replacement: No one
Phil Hughes
Chance of returning: 100%
Of the three young starters the Yankees touted a few years ago (Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy) Hughes has turned out to be the most productive. While it still remains to be seen if Hughes will be the ace-quality starter he was in the early part of 2010, or the middle-of-the-rotation guy he has appeared to be for much of the rest of the season, his age, his price tag, his overall health, and his maturation in the system already, makes him a lock to be back next year.
Possible replacement: No one.
AJ Burnett
Chance of returning: 95%
This is probably 100%, but the Yankees might get so frustrated with Burnett and his on-again, off-again outing that they might be willing to eat most of his contract to get him off the roster. Yet, even though the Yankees are the only team in baseball capable of doing something like that, it is highly, highly unlikely. Burnett, after this season, has three more years left on what now seems like a odious $85 million contract. Who would be dumb enough to take that on, even if the Yankees were picking up most of the bill? The answer is no one.
Plus, on the positive side, Burnett remains one of the most talented throwers in the game and is perfectly capable of pitching a gem, or getting on a roll towards the end of the year and being one of the team's best performers. Because of that, it is highly unlikely the Yankees would be willing to part company.
Possible replacement: Ivan Nova
I personally believe the Yankees will look to add two new pitchers this offseason already (which I'll explain in a moment) so, if they traded Burnett, I think they would keep it cheap and promote from within. Nova is having an excellent year at AAA and would be in line to get a chance at the number 5 spot in the rotation.
Andy Pettitte
Chance of returning: 30%
If you had asked me this question eight weeks ago, I would have told you this percentage would be at about 80%. However, Pettitte, who has flirted with retirement for what seems like a decade straight now, always said he would pitch as long as he was healthy. Well, he was healthy all last year and through the All Star break this year. Now, however, he seems to be dealing with a groin injury that won't go away and the veteran lefty has shown real frustration when speaking about his rehab. Even if Pettitte comes back and pitches well at the end of the season, his current injury is probably enough to keep him from trying it again next year. At his age, the body might be telling him to shut it down.
Possible replacement: Ted Lilly, Joba Chamberlain
The Yankees were rumored to be interested in their former left handed pitcher at the trade deadline but backed away. As a free agent, and a little older, Lilly could be a nice stop-gap for either a youngster in the minors or another free agent pitcher down the road. He's a left hander, has pitched in New York and the ÅL East in the past, and would probably be amenable to coming back to where it all started for him. As far as Chamberlain, it is a possibility only in a pinch, in my opinion, but it is an option. The Yankees spent a lot of time “building” his arm up last year and he has remained injury free this season, albeit in the pen. I think they would look to keep him in his current role, but, if they needed to, he could be swung back into the rotation.
Javier Vazquez
Chance of returning: 3%
I don't have a lot of faith that Javy is coming back to the Yanks. His return has been okay but not triumphant. He is still shaky in the big game and he isn't exactly a fan favorite. Plus, Javy is going to be 35 and his stuff, including his velocity, has seemed to be down this year from even last year. Considering his track record would probably be enough to command a larger contract, both in terms of money and years, than the Yankees are willing to give up, it's hard to imagine the Vazquez experiment lasting more than a season.
Possible replacement: Cliff Lee
Is there a worse secret in baseball than that Cliff Lee wants to be a Yankee and the Yankees want Cliff Lee?The Bombers had a deal in place this trade deadline to bring Lee to the Bronx in exchange for Jesus Montero, so you know they are serious. Sabathia, who is one of Lee's best friends, has also not been very couy when asked whether Lee will want to sign with the Yankees come this winter. I think the Yankes, with Pettitte and Vazquez coming off the books, will have one big contract splash in them, and Lee, still only 31 and one of the best in the game, will be wearing pinstripes next season.
Closer – Mariano Rivera
Chance of returning: 100%
Unless Rivera wants to walk away after this year, he is coming back.
Forget the contract. Like Jeter, there is no way anyone is letting Rivera walk in the twilight of his career to another team. He will be back and, unless shown otherwise, will be just as good as always.
Possible replacement: No one.
Couple of notes here: I didn't tackle the bench players at all because they are fairly expendable. I doubt Austin Kearns comes back, wouldn't be surprised if Marcus Thames has a second go-around, and think that Pena would probably be back as your jack of all trades in the infield. Francisco Cervelli is an interesting case as his situation will be determined by how committed the Yankees are to Posada as their everyday DH, and how much rope they give a kid like Montero. As far as the pen, the only really interesting guys are Joba and Kerry Wood. I can't see the Yanks giving up on Robertson, although, if he were requested in a deal the Yankees desperately wanted, I doubt it would be a breaker, and I think Boone Logan might have secured a chance to be that lefty reliever the Yankees like to have. With Wood and Joba, I think Wood is gone, only because someone will offer him a closer roll, and I think Joba stays, although he will be offered in the right deal. In the end, Joba's talent is still enough to keep the Yanks coming back for more.
Saturday, July 17
Some random Yankee thoughts
For some reason, I have been wrapped up in the Knicks/NBA off season, but now that it is the second half of the baseball season, focus shifts back to the Yanks. It has been a weird week for the Yankees and a lot of things come to mind.
*I feel bad about George Steinbrenner and Bob Shepard but neither one was by any means a shock to the system. Shepard was 99-years-old and in bad health. Steinbrenner had reportedly had a series of strokes over the last few years, was all but hidden away from public view and, by all accounts, was somewhat out of it when people saw him (Bill Madden, while promoting his George book recently, all but stated that, when Jeter and Girardi went to deliver the world series ring to Big Stein before opening day at the Stadium this year, he didn't even really know who they were).
I have no problem paying tribute to both men, especially Steinbrenner. He was one of the most dominate sports figures of the last 40 years and someone who has changed baseball, and sports in general, from his treatment of free agency as a tool to redefine ones team to his establishment of the YES Network.
However, it seems that there was little middle ground when it came to Steinbrenner. I read only a handful of columnists who got the balance of business and owner visionary and impulsive and sometimes cruel owner who, at times, did as much to undermine his own team as he ultimately did to establish it as the greatest sports franchise in the world.
And, the coverage on YES was just over the top. I wouldn't expect YES people to discuss Steinbrenner's bad side. He owned the network, his sons now own it, and a sense of diplomacy and even reverance was appropriate. Considering how open the YES Network has been in allowing different points of view about the team and ownership, especially with the likes of Mike Francesa on the air, you would afford them a little bias when it comes covering the death of their founder.
But, it is one thing to focus on the good aspects, quite another to distort the record. In praising The Boss, Yes Network personnel went too far. Michael Kay glossed over the fact that Steinbrenner had tried to trade Any Pettitte on numerous occassions and was willing to let Bernie Williams walk to the Boston Red Sox before being convinced to sign his star outfielder when discussing the relationship the two players had with the owner. The memorial also replayed a Yankeeography of Steinbrenner, where it mentioned that he had "stood behind his new manager (Joe Torre)" when tabloid papers questioned the move. Such a statement is ironic considering it is now well known that Steinbrenner traveled to former manager Buck Showalter's house after having let him go and hired Torre to see if Showalter would return. Considering that, if Showalter had said he would have had to fire Torre before the man ever took the field, it is hard to comprehend how anyone could, with a straight face, pretend that Steinbrenner had "stood by his new manager."
Like I said, no one is asking the YES Network to spend 45 minutes on Howie Spira, but disfiguring the facts to hide the truth behind the man is a blantant abdication of journalistic responsibilty.
*A friend of mine made a very good point last night after watching Nick Swisher line a single into right field to win the game in the ninth: it wasn't that long ago, probably less than 12 months actually, where, had there been an emotionally charged game, the importance obvious to all, on the line in the ninth, Derek Jeter would have lined a double into right-center to end the game. Last night, after Tampa reliver Dan Wheeler delivered two meatballs that Jeter fouled away, he struck out on a pitch in the dirt.
Jeter is having argueably the worst season of his professional career. He is batting .270, nearly 50 points lower than his career average. His home runs and RBI are about on target, but his OBP is a paltry .336, again about 50 points lower than average, and his SLG is holding at only .386, 70 points off his normal numbers.
Even more disturbing are his splits. Jeter started the year in usual fashion, with a .330 average in April. A late surge helped salvage Jeter's May, where he hit .280, but June saw his swoon continue hitting on .243. Things have gotten much worse in July, where he is batting only .178 and only has two multi-hit games the entire month.
To give you a sense of how bad this season has been so far, in 2004 when Jeter got off to his historically slow start and was hitting only .220 by the end of May, he was up to .281 by July 17 after a torrid June where he had hit .396, and all of his numbers were significantly higher. Jeter's July and August were average after that, but his September was fantastic and he finished with a .292 average and above average power numbers.
So far this year, a long streak of great hitting has been nonexistent and there is no burst of power, as there had been in 2004, to mitigate the slow start.
I don't know what to make of it at this point. On the positive side, 2004 showed that Jeter could suffer through inconsistency and still play to the back of his baseball card at the end of the year. Also, after a very mediocre 2008 campaign, when some began to question his status as an elite player, Jeter rattled off a 2009 season that was one of his career best. With half of July, and then two months of baseball to go after that, Jeter's numbers could be fairly even when all is said and done.
Yet, he is 36, has played in more games and put his body through more beatings than most because he has been in the playoffs all but one of his professional careers, and eventually ever player begins to show his age.
Jeter has earned the right to play until he wants to sit down, and has also earned the benefit of the doubt that he will turn it around. But, you would have to be blind not to be concerned about this slump and what it could mean for the Yankees. Jeter has always been extremely important to the Yankee offense. They are not the same without him producing. If he is now going to be a .270 hitter, that doesn't bode well for consistency against the better teams.
Here's to hoping the Captain still has it in him and that this is a hiccup.
*I, for one, am glad the Cliff Lee deal failed for two reasons: first, while I care little for the opinions of the Yankee-haters in this country, getting Lee would have been overkill the likes even a fan like me would have been hard pressed to defend. You can make an arguement the Yankees need a bullpen arm to bridge the gap to Mo. You could even make somewhat of an arguement for another bat to take on the DH role because it is hard to feel confident that Nick Johnson will be anything other than a spectator this season. But a rotation ace? The Yankees don't need him. Getting him simply would have incensed the entire league for nothing. I am all for the Yankees being the best they can, but it is better for baseball that some of the other great players play in a different market.
The second reason is Jesus Montero. This kid could be special. Taking a look at him in spring training told everything you needed to know. He could be Manny Ramirez. He could be Miguel Cabrera. He could be a homegrown slugger the likes of which the Yankees haven't produced on their own in years.
Sure, there are questions about his defense, but those question marks seem to always be raised by people with limited knowledge of his abilities. What the heck does Joel Sherman know about this kid behind the plate? How many Scranton games and, before that, Trenton games do you think Slimy Shermy took in the last two years? My guess would be under one.
Montero is 20-years-old. He is the full-time AAA catcher. He started off slowly and everyone seemed ready to say "goodbye" because he wasn't producing prodigeous numbers.
Yet, he is still batting .262 with 8 homers and 39 RBI and, in his last 10 games, he is batting .350 with very good power numbers. That's at AAA. That's at 20.
I don't think you give up on a kid like that, even for Lee. This team isn't getting any younger out in the field. Posada probably has, what, another year left? Jeter may already be slowing down. A-Rod should remain at the top of his game for at least a few more years, but he will begin to see a decline sooner rather than later as well.
The Yankees will get top quality out of Teixeira and Cano for years to come and I believe that Granderson will show himself to be a part of that younger core before the end of the year. But, they are going to need to bring along another big bat and Montero can be that guy to join with Cano and Tex to keep the potent lineup going for years.
*If Montero does become that kind of top offensive player, it will allow the Yankees to do what I believe they should: avoid going after Carl Crawford and hang on to Brett Gardner.
Crawford is the better player and he has the resume to indicate he is a consistent player rather than a flash in the pan. But, look at Gardner's numbers this year compared to Crawford:
Crawford - .322 11 50 ..380 .519 31BB 31SB 70 runs
Gardner - .307 5 29 .398 .412 39BB 25SB 57 runs
Crawford has the clear advantage when it comes to power, with more homers and a better SLG. Forget the RBI because Crawford hits at the top/middle of the lineup while Gardner is at the bottom. But, look at everything else. The batting average is about the same, Gardner has a better eye and better OBP, both guys are on pace to score over 100 runs, and both guys are about the same when it comes to stolen bases. Plus, this is Gardner's first full year in the majors and he is almost 3 years younger than Crawford.
As I stated above, Crawford is the better player, but the gap between the two is by no means as pronouced as their salary will be next year. Crawford will geta BIG contract. Gardner is making $452,000 this year.
For what the Yankees need, is Crawford enough of a lift to justify the money? Another team might need him as a table setter or as a three-hole hitter, but the Yankees don't need that. They need what Gardner brings.
I would prefer that, next year, Gardner be your left fielder and the Yanks focus on Lee, who might be more needed next season as Javier Vazquez will probably be allowed to leave via free agency and Andy Pettitte might retire.
Keep gritty, gutty Brett Gardner as a starter. He's younger, cheaper, and he might even have room to improve and close that gap between he and Crawford even more.
*I feel bad about George Steinbrenner and Bob Shepard but neither one was by any means a shock to the system. Shepard was 99-years-old and in bad health. Steinbrenner had reportedly had a series of strokes over the last few years, was all but hidden away from public view and, by all accounts, was somewhat out of it when people saw him (Bill Madden, while promoting his George book recently, all but stated that, when Jeter and Girardi went to deliver the world series ring to Big Stein before opening day at the Stadium this year, he didn't even really know who they were).
I have no problem paying tribute to both men, especially Steinbrenner. He was one of the most dominate sports figures of the last 40 years and someone who has changed baseball, and sports in general, from his treatment of free agency as a tool to redefine ones team to his establishment of the YES Network.
However, it seems that there was little middle ground when it came to Steinbrenner. I read only a handful of columnists who got the balance of business and owner visionary and impulsive and sometimes cruel owner who, at times, did as much to undermine his own team as he ultimately did to establish it as the greatest sports franchise in the world.
And, the coverage on YES was just over the top. I wouldn't expect YES people to discuss Steinbrenner's bad side. He owned the network, his sons now own it, and a sense of diplomacy and even reverance was appropriate. Considering how open the YES Network has been in allowing different points of view about the team and ownership, especially with the likes of Mike Francesa on the air, you would afford them a little bias when it comes covering the death of their founder.
But, it is one thing to focus on the good aspects, quite another to distort the record. In praising The Boss, Yes Network personnel went too far. Michael Kay glossed over the fact that Steinbrenner had tried to trade Any Pettitte on numerous occassions and was willing to let Bernie Williams walk to the Boston Red Sox before being convinced to sign his star outfielder when discussing the relationship the two players had with the owner. The memorial also replayed a Yankeeography of Steinbrenner, where it mentioned that he had "stood behind his new manager (Joe Torre)" when tabloid papers questioned the move. Such a statement is ironic considering it is now well known that Steinbrenner traveled to former manager Buck Showalter's house after having let him go and hired Torre to see if Showalter would return. Considering that, if Showalter had said he would have had to fire Torre before the man ever took the field, it is hard to comprehend how anyone could, with a straight face, pretend that Steinbrenner had "stood by his new manager."
Like I said, no one is asking the YES Network to spend 45 minutes on Howie Spira, but disfiguring the facts to hide the truth behind the man is a blantant abdication of journalistic responsibilty.
*A friend of mine made a very good point last night after watching Nick Swisher line a single into right field to win the game in the ninth: it wasn't that long ago, probably less than 12 months actually, where, had there been an emotionally charged game, the importance obvious to all, on the line in the ninth, Derek Jeter would have lined a double into right-center to end the game. Last night, after Tampa reliver Dan Wheeler delivered two meatballs that Jeter fouled away, he struck out on a pitch in the dirt.
Jeter is having argueably the worst season of his professional career. He is batting .270, nearly 50 points lower than his career average. His home runs and RBI are about on target, but his OBP is a paltry .336, again about 50 points lower than average, and his SLG is holding at only .386, 70 points off his normal numbers.
Even more disturbing are his splits. Jeter started the year in usual fashion, with a .330 average in April. A late surge helped salvage Jeter's May, where he hit .280, but June saw his swoon continue hitting on .243. Things have gotten much worse in July, where he is batting only .178 and only has two multi-hit games the entire month.
To give you a sense of how bad this season has been so far, in 2004 when Jeter got off to his historically slow start and was hitting only .220 by the end of May, he was up to .281 by July 17 after a torrid June where he had hit .396, and all of his numbers were significantly higher. Jeter's July and August were average after that, but his September was fantastic and he finished with a .292 average and above average power numbers.
So far this year, a long streak of great hitting has been nonexistent and there is no burst of power, as there had been in 2004, to mitigate the slow start.
I don't know what to make of it at this point. On the positive side, 2004 showed that Jeter could suffer through inconsistency and still play to the back of his baseball card at the end of the year. Also, after a very mediocre 2008 campaign, when some began to question his status as an elite player, Jeter rattled off a 2009 season that was one of his career best. With half of July, and then two months of baseball to go after that, Jeter's numbers could be fairly even when all is said and done.
Yet, he is 36, has played in more games and put his body through more beatings than most because he has been in the playoffs all but one of his professional careers, and eventually ever player begins to show his age.
Jeter has earned the right to play until he wants to sit down, and has also earned the benefit of the doubt that he will turn it around. But, you would have to be blind not to be concerned about this slump and what it could mean for the Yankees. Jeter has always been extremely important to the Yankee offense. They are not the same without him producing. If he is now going to be a .270 hitter, that doesn't bode well for consistency against the better teams.
Here's to hoping the Captain still has it in him and that this is a hiccup.
*I, for one, am glad the Cliff Lee deal failed for two reasons: first, while I care little for the opinions of the Yankee-haters in this country, getting Lee would have been overkill the likes even a fan like me would have been hard pressed to defend. You can make an arguement the Yankees need a bullpen arm to bridge the gap to Mo. You could even make somewhat of an arguement for another bat to take on the DH role because it is hard to feel confident that Nick Johnson will be anything other than a spectator this season. But a rotation ace? The Yankees don't need him. Getting him simply would have incensed the entire league for nothing. I am all for the Yankees being the best they can, but it is better for baseball that some of the other great players play in a different market.
The second reason is Jesus Montero. This kid could be special. Taking a look at him in spring training told everything you needed to know. He could be Manny Ramirez. He could be Miguel Cabrera. He could be a homegrown slugger the likes of which the Yankees haven't produced on their own in years.
Sure, there are questions about his defense, but those question marks seem to always be raised by people with limited knowledge of his abilities. What the heck does Joel Sherman know about this kid behind the plate? How many Scranton games and, before that, Trenton games do you think Slimy Shermy took in the last two years? My guess would be under one.
Montero is 20-years-old. He is the full-time AAA catcher. He started off slowly and everyone seemed ready to say "goodbye" because he wasn't producing prodigeous numbers.
Yet, he is still batting .262 with 8 homers and 39 RBI and, in his last 10 games, he is batting .350 with very good power numbers. That's at AAA. That's at 20.
I don't think you give up on a kid like that, even for Lee. This team isn't getting any younger out in the field. Posada probably has, what, another year left? Jeter may already be slowing down. A-Rod should remain at the top of his game for at least a few more years, but he will begin to see a decline sooner rather than later as well.
The Yankees will get top quality out of Teixeira and Cano for years to come and I believe that Granderson will show himself to be a part of that younger core before the end of the year. But, they are going to need to bring along another big bat and Montero can be that guy to join with Cano and Tex to keep the potent lineup going for years.
*If Montero does become that kind of top offensive player, it will allow the Yankees to do what I believe they should: avoid going after Carl Crawford and hang on to Brett Gardner.
Crawford is the better player and he has the resume to indicate he is a consistent player rather than a flash in the pan. But, look at Gardner's numbers this year compared to Crawford:
Crawford - .322 11 50 ..380 .519 31BB 31SB 70 runs
Gardner - .307 5 29 .398 .412 39BB 25SB 57 runs
Crawford has the clear advantage when it comes to power, with more homers and a better SLG. Forget the RBI because Crawford hits at the top/middle of the lineup while Gardner is at the bottom. But, look at everything else. The batting average is about the same, Gardner has a better eye and better OBP, both guys are on pace to score over 100 runs, and both guys are about the same when it comes to stolen bases. Plus, this is Gardner's first full year in the majors and he is almost 3 years younger than Crawford.
As I stated above, Crawford is the better player, but the gap between the two is by no means as pronouced as their salary will be next year. Crawford will geta BIG contract. Gardner is making $452,000 this year.
For what the Yankees need, is Crawford enough of a lift to justify the money? Another team might need him as a table setter or as a three-hole hitter, but the Yankees don't need that. They need what Gardner brings.
I would prefer that, next year, Gardner be your left fielder and the Yanks focus on Lee, who might be more needed next season as Javier Vazquez will probably be allowed to leave via free agency and Andy Pettitte might retire.
Keep gritty, gutty Brett Gardner as a starter. He's younger, cheaper, and he might even have room to improve and close that gap between he and Crawford even more.
Looking for leaders, not followers
On Saturday, Carmelo Anthony, the 26-year-old Brooklyn native and current Denver Nugget small forward, got married in NYC. Some usual suspects, including one Lebron James, showed up to take part in the festivities.
The New York Post had a few shots of the wedding, and the litany of stars that showed up.
A couple of thoughts came to mind.
First, Lebron evidently ignored all questions from reporters and all shouts, good or bad, from fans as he entered. The pictures shown of him tell the story. He looks a lot more like a guy that just got charged with a felony, rather than one "ready to make history" in South Beach.
It was somewhat amazing considering not just two days before Lebron had orchestrated his own media circus, all with the express intent of promoting himself. I guess, when you don't get to hand pick the people who will ask you questions and dictate terms, it isn't as interesting to deal with the media.
But, besides Lebron, the spectacle got me thinking.
Are there any leaders in the league anymore, or just followers?
We know Kobe Bryants not a follower, or any of the real Big Three in Boston. And, we know that Dwayne Wade was only taking people to his team, not following anyone to theirs.
But, who else?
Is Kevin Durant a guy who wants the attention, the bright lights and the big stage, and the responsibility of leading his team, and talented teammates, to a championship? How about Chris Paul? He was one of the guys who came in the car with Lebron to Melo's wedding. Does Paul look at the marriage of Wade, Lebron, and Bosh and think "all right, I am going to beat their asses when we play" or is he thinking "I wonder if there's a way they could clear some more cap space for me?"
Do you think Derrick Rose was itching to have Lebron or Wade come to Chicago to lead them to victory or do you think he was quietly sitting back stewing at the notion that anyone would have to come in and help "hold his hand" while leading him to the promise land?
And while neither guy has enough time in the league to warrant such questions, it will be interesting to see if Tyreke Evans and John Wall are basketball killers or simply pretenders.
That leaves Carmelo Anthony.
I have a feeling that Melo is the most lilkely player to be dealt this offseason, and the Knicks the most likely suitor.
It makes sense. The Nuggets are on the downward spiral. Two of their most important players - Chauncey Billups and Kenyon Martin - are on the wrong side of 30 and both have shown downward decline. They can both be productive players for a few more years, I'm sure, but not as the focus of the offense. The mix on the team has seemingly gone bad, with JR Smith and Carmelo exchanging jabs last year in the playoffs against Utah. Above all else, it is uncertain as to the future of George Karl, who is battling cancer, and it has to be a concern of Carmelo's that Karl will not return, or will for only a short time.
Plus, with Anthony coming up on free agency next year, and the Nuggets having just "witnessed" the spectacle of that process this year, it is doubtful they would want to go through something similar.
While they have insisted that they have no intention of trading their best player, if Melo continues to balk at their contract extension offer, wouldn't it be only smart for them to make a trade now and get something good back?
So let's say the basketball gods smile on New York after losing Lebron, and the Nuggets give Donnie Walsh a call to play a round of "let's make a deal." It would, no question, makes the Knicks one of the best teams in the East, but my question would be, is Carmelo a Kobe or is he a Lebron?
Like with Chris Paul, another extremely talented player who may be on the Knicks radar screen, the question remains, how does Carmelo look at what just happened in Miami? What was his response when he saw his buddy, Lebron, at his wedding? Did he ask about cap space on the Heat roster? Did he question what kinds of villas are available on the beach in Miami? Or, did he walk up to Lebron, pat him on the shoulder, congratulate him, and then say something to the effect of "but, if you guys see me in the playoffs, you're gonna be waiting for that ring a long time."
After the Lebron saga, that remains my biggest question about current athletes. If there was ever a player who should have been wired with the same Jordan, Bird, Magic, Russell, West kind of hardware, it should have been Lebron. He should have wanted to beat Wade's brains out, not run and follow him like a scared puppy. He should have watched Kobe in the finals, watched as the world debated whether he was the greatest Laker or not, and thought "I am gonna be in that kind of conversation one day." Instead, he chose some sort of frat party, South Beach free-for-all with his buddies, in his buddies town, on his buddies team, than carving out some sort of legacy.
Is Melo different? Is he a killer? Is he the guy who wants to build something special on his own or does he want to follow the crowd, look to share the responsibilty, deflect the blame, and ride a winning player's coattails to a ring?
It's hard to tell whether Anthony is a "big game" player or not. He has been in the playoffs every single year he has been in the league, getting knocked out in the first round in each of his first five years in the league. Last year, the Nuggets went all the way to the conference finals, getting knocked out by the Lakers. This year, it was another first-round knockout at the hands of the Jazz.
The results have not been great. However, the Nuggets have been sent home by the Lakers twice, and Melo has progressively gotten better in the playoff runs. It is also difficult to tell how good Carmelo could be considering he really only got help in the form of Kenyon Martin and Chauncey Billups two years ago while, before that, it had essentially been a one-man show for Melo.
Perhaps Anthony is a fader; a guy who shrinks away when the heat (no pun intended) is turned on. But, maybe he is a caged lion, waiting to get a chance to control his own destiny.
What I would want to know at this point, if I were the Nuggets or the Knicks, or even the Nets, is does Melo even want the responsibilty of finding that out? Is he ready for the challenge, or does he want to join Lebron and Dwayne in easy-ville.
I hope, for the league's sake, Melo is one of the guys who wants to establish his own legacy. I hope Durant and Paul and Wall and Evans and any of the other soon-to-be stars of the league do as well. I hope we get a time when rivalries are established, when players are less friendly and more competitive, and when "team" means more than three buddies playing alley oop for paychecks.
We'll see what the Knicks do in the coming months. What I want to see, what I want to hear from anyone at all, is for someone to stand up and say "oh, that's nice for the Heat. Now I'm going to go out there and beat the sh*t out of them."
Anyone ready to step up to the challenge?
The New York Post had a few shots of the wedding, and the litany of stars that showed up.
A couple of thoughts came to mind.
First, Lebron evidently ignored all questions from reporters and all shouts, good or bad, from fans as he entered. The pictures shown of him tell the story. He looks a lot more like a guy that just got charged with a felony, rather than one "ready to make history" in South Beach.
It was somewhat amazing considering not just two days before Lebron had orchestrated his own media circus, all with the express intent of promoting himself. I guess, when you don't get to hand pick the people who will ask you questions and dictate terms, it isn't as interesting to deal with the media.
But, besides Lebron, the spectacle got me thinking.
Are there any leaders in the league anymore, or just followers?
We know Kobe Bryants not a follower, or any of the real Big Three in Boston. And, we know that Dwayne Wade was only taking people to his team, not following anyone to theirs.
But, who else?
Is Kevin Durant a guy who wants the attention, the bright lights and the big stage, and the responsibility of leading his team, and talented teammates, to a championship? How about Chris Paul? He was one of the guys who came in the car with Lebron to Melo's wedding. Does Paul look at the marriage of Wade, Lebron, and Bosh and think "all right, I am going to beat their asses when we play" or is he thinking "I wonder if there's a way they could clear some more cap space for me?"
Do you think Derrick Rose was itching to have Lebron or Wade come to Chicago to lead them to victory or do you think he was quietly sitting back stewing at the notion that anyone would have to come in and help "hold his hand" while leading him to the promise land?
And while neither guy has enough time in the league to warrant such questions, it will be interesting to see if Tyreke Evans and John Wall are basketball killers or simply pretenders.
That leaves Carmelo Anthony.
I have a feeling that Melo is the most lilkely player to be dealt this offseason, and the Knicks the most likely suitor.
It makes sense. The Nuggets are on the downward spiral. Two of their most important players - Chauncey Billups and Kenyon Martin - are on the wrong side of 30 and both have shown downward decline. They can both be productive players for a few more years, I'm sure, but not as the focus of the offense. The mix on the team has seemingly gone bad, with JR Smith and Carmelo exchanging jabs last year in the playoffs against Utah. Above all else, it is uncertain as to the future of George Karl, who is battling cancer, and it has to be a concern of Carmelo's that Karl will not return, or will for only a short time.
Plus, with Anthony coming up on free agency next year, and the Nuggets having just "witnessed" the spectacle of that process this year, it is doubtful they would want to go through something similar.
While they have insisted that they have no intention of trading their best player, if Melo continues to balk at their contract extension offer, wouldn't it be only smart for them to make a trade now and get something good back?
So let's say the basketball gods smile on New York after losing Lebron, and the Nuggets give Donnie Walsh a call to play a round of "let's make a deal." It would, no question, makes the Knicks one of the best teams in the East, but my question would be, is Carmelo a Kobe or is he a Lebron?
Like with Chris Paul, another extremely talented player who may be on the Knicks radar screen, the question remains, how does Carmelo look at what just happened in Miami? What was his response when he saw his buddy, Lebron, at his wedding? Did he ask about cap space on the Heat roster? Did he question what kinds of villas are available on the beach in Miami? Or, did he walk up to Lebron, pat him on the shoulder, congratulate him, and then say something to the effect of "but, if you guys see me in the playoffs, you're gonna be waiting for that ring a long time."
After the Lebron saga, that remains my biggest question about current athletes. If there was ever a player who should have been wired with the same Jordan, Bird, Magic, Russell, West kind of hardware, it should have been Lebron. He should have wanted to beat Wade's brains out, not run and follow him like a scared puppy. He should have watched Kobe in the finals, watched as the world debated whether he was the greatest Laker or not, and thought "I am gonna be in that kind of conversation one day." Instead, he chose some sort of frat party, South Beach free-for-all with his buddies, in his buddies town, on his buddies team, than carving out some sort of legacy.
Is Melo different? Is he a killer? Is he the guy who wants to build something special on his own or does he want to follow the crowd, look to share the responsibilty, deflect the blame, and ride a winning player's coattails to a ring?
It's hard to tell whether Anthony is a "big game" player or not. He has been in the playoffs every single year he has been in the league, getting knocked out in the first round in each of his first five years in the league. Last year, the Nuggets went all the way to the conference finals, getting knocked out by the Lakers. This year, it was another first-round knockout at the hands of the Jazz.
The results have not been great. However, the Nuggets have been sent home by the Lakers twice, and Melo has progressively gotten better in the playoff runs. It is also difficult to tell how good Carmelo could be considering he really only got help in the form of Kenyon Martin and Chauncey Billups two years ago while, before that, it had essentially been a one-man show for Melo.
Perhaps Anthony is a fader; a guy who shrinks away when the heat (no pun intended) is turned on. But, maybe he is a caged lion, waiting to get a chance to control his own destiny.
What I would want to know at this point, if I were the Nuggets or the Knicks, or even the Nets, is does Melo even want the responsibilty of finding that out? Is he ready for the challenge, or does he want to join Lebron and Dwayne in easy-ville.
I hope, for the league's sake, Melo is one of the guys who wants to establish his own legacy. I hope Durant and Paul and Wall and Evans and any of the other soon-to-be stars of the league do as well. I hope we get a time when rivalries are established, when players are less friendly and more competitive, and when "team" means more than three buddies playing alley oop for paychecks.
We'll see what the Knicks do in the coming months. What I want to see, what I want to hear from anyone at all, is for someone to stand up and say "oh, that's nice for the Heat. Now I'm going to go out there and beat the sh*t out of them."
Anyone ready to step up to the challenge?
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