Better Late Than Never..........MLB Predictions

I have decided to put my revulsion for MLB's decision to schedule Opening Day on a Thursday, which has all the magic of a visit to the dentist for a moller checkup, behind me and focus on one main theme: from this point through the end of September, baseball is back and will be with us, everyday, like a friendly pet meeting us at the door.

It might be sleeting out my window right now, and temperatures might not want to rise above 50 for the next three weeks, but baseball signifies the end of bad weather, the beginning of warm spring and summer days, cookouts, and weekends at the beach. The elevator music to all of that......is baseball.

As I write this, it is 12:52 p.m. and Yankee/Tigers is about 15 minutes from starting up. What better time to do my predictions for MLB 2011?

I actually began this a while ago, but my adult ADD kicked in bigtime when Uconn went on a magical run and I ended up going on vacation to Las Vegas. March Madness combined with Sin City will help you lose a couple of weeks.

But, there is no time like the present, so without further ado, here is my MLB preview:

American League East

Red Sox

Yankees

Blue Jays

Rays

Orioles

Division overview – Look, everything inside of me screams when I write “Red Sox” in first place, but let's be honest here; this version of the Sox has few weaknesses. Sure, Josh Beckett and John Lackey could be extraordinarily mediocre, and Jonathan Paplebon could become a problem both on and off the field, but that would only knock a few wins off this team's season. The truth is, that team was pretty darn good even having been nailed with injury after injury last year. If they are healthy, the team's additions (Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford) will turn that offense into a juggernaut.

Feel free to count out the Yankees if you want, but, with the addition of Rafael Soriano, they have one of the best bullpens in the majors and their offense, if they get expected bounceback years from Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and everyone else not named Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher, the offense will be every bit the equal of the Sox. The question? The pitching. Anyone who tells you they know what AJ Burnett, Phil Hughes, and Ivan Nova are going to do in 2011 are lying. No one knows. If they all pitch lights out, the Yanks have a chance for number 28. If they all spit the bit, it will be a tough 162. Only time will tell.

I think both the Blue Jays and the Rays will be in it most of the year. I am taking the Jays over the Rays for third. I love their pitching (Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero) and the offense should be better, even assuming a lesser year from Jose Bautista (no way he gets close to 54 homers in '011). I am not in love with their bullpen, and I just don't trust them enough to nip the Yankees, but I think they are good enough to hold off the Rays.

As for Tampa, look, their pitching has a lot of good young talent. David Price is my early pick for Cy Young. I love Wade Davis, and Mark Hellickson seems like the real deal. But, they have no bullpen and a very, very shaky offense. Sure, Evan Longoria is a top, top player, and I actually am a Ben Zobrist fan (he'll be more like his 2009 self than 2010). But, after that, are you really confident Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon are both going to spit in Father Time's eye? They will have to in order for the Rays to be similar to what they were last year. I don't think they fall into irrelevancy, but I think they fall to fourth.

Baltimore finds itself in its usual spot: fourth place. I was all ready to root hard for the O's this year (except when they play against the Yankees, of course) but then Buck Showalter made those asinine comments about Jeter and Theo Epstein, and it got me back on the Orioles haterade train. Honestly, I think the O's have some things to feel good about. I believe Adam Jones is ready for a breakout year, as is Matt Wieter behind the plate, and I believe that Mark Reynolds is going to put up prodigeous home run and strikeout numbers playing at Camden. I like the lineup, but I am not a believer in the pitching. I know they love Brian Matusez, who looked good down the stretch, but I've never seen the kid pitch once and thought “that is electric stuff.” Can he be a good pitcher? No doubt. Is he carrying a rotation or winning a Cy Young? No way. After that, who knows.

The future is brighter for the O's, but they'll have to find those glimmers of hope staring up, once again, from last place.

American League Central

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Royals

Indians

Division overview — I like the Tigers. Call me a sucker for Jim Leyland and his brand of old school baseball. I just love their offense, believe that Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez will have big years, love the Victor Martinez addition, and I like their rotation more than most. Justin Verlander won 18 games last year, and I didn't even think he was that great. Wayne Scherzer showed promise as a good number two starter behind Verlander and Ricky Porcello is a perfect fit for the number three hole (he could be a top of the rotation talent, but no worse than the third best pitcher on the team). The bullpen will sport Joqium Benoit as its closer, finally moving away from waiting for a healthy Joel Zumaya, and the rest of the arms are suspect, but I just think, in the back-and-forth atmosphere of the AL Central, it is Detroit's turn to shine.

I know a lot of people are high on the White Sox, but I am taking the Twins to finish in second. This pick is mostly about the Twins. How can you count them out? I don't know how to read the Justin Morneau concussion thing. It really took him a year, a whole year, to rebound from that? I know we are all suppose to treat concussions like gunshot wounds now, but it seems a little much that Morneau is still talking about “getting there” when it comes to health. This happened 10 freakin months ago. Get over it. Yet, I think Morneau will have a productive year, and I think Joe Mauer will have more of a power year than he did last season. Their offense is multi-dimensional and they play great at Target.

I just don't trust the pitching. Everyone in the rotation is solid. Franciscon Liriano, if he doesn't get traded, is the only one who has the chance to be special, and he is too spotty in the big game to be a legit ace, for my money. After that, it's a bunch of “okay” pitcher. I am banking on okay not being enough this year.

As for the White Sox, I know they have Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko back, people are high on Gordon Beckham having a breakout year, and they won 88 games last season. Why would they be worse? First, I don't believe in Ozzie Guillen. I think he can turn a tough year into a miserable year quicker than anyone. Second, I don't like their pitching. Jake Peavy was suppose to be the difference maker, the ace of the staff. Who knows what you'll get from him now, with all his injuries, but I think his inability to be the “ace” of that staff makes the White Sox an “ehhh” team rather than a “wow” team.

After that, give me the up-and-coming youth of the Royals over the Indians, especially since I think Fausto Carmona, the Indians best pitcher, will be calling someplace new home before the end of July (the Bronx, maybe?).

American League West

A's

Angels

Rangers

Mariners

Division overview — I am a weird dude. I hate moneyball, Billy Beane, and the new trend to disregard actual, tangible stats (like ERA and RBI) for these weird, pseudo stats (WAR, VORP). Yet, I always find myself liking Oakland teams. Same goes for this year. I love the Oakland pitching. Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, even Dallas Braden and his stupid “not on my mound” routine have won me over. Trust me when I say, they had a lot of winning over to do considering that offense (Coco Crisp might be their most explosive player). I just like the way they are going to pitch and play small ball and, personally, I think this is more of an example of how weak the AL West is, rather than how strong Oakland is.

No Rangers in the playoff hunt? I personally was never sold on the Rangers. They, to me, are the same team they were two years ago when they didn't sniff the playoffs. Last year, the stars aligned, they plucked an ace like Cliff Lee away from the Mariners, and guys like Colby Lewis shined for them. They are still going to score runs, but not enough to make up for woeful pitching.

That's why, to me, I will stick the Angels in the second spot, with a chance to win the division.

This is not a great team. I hated the Vernon Wells deal. Tori Hunter is a nice player, not great. Who knows about Kendry Morales, and Howie Kendrick may just be a nice player, rather than the future superstar everyone envisioned. What will keep the Angels in it will be the pitching. Jared Weaver is one of the best in the business, Dan Haren is as underrated a top hurler as there is in the game, and Ervin Santana is reliable. Add in the fact that I think Scott Kazmir is due for a bounceback season, and count me a tempid believer in the Angels. Remember, it was only two years ago this team had a stranglehold on the West division.

Bringing up the rear, the Mariners. The only time you'll hear about the Mariners this year is when people ask whether they will be willing to trade King Felix Hernandez. By the way, if they are even considering trading a young man with that much talent, who has four years left on his contract, they should fold up shop and move the team to Portland, or any other city where an ownership group would support the team.

American League Wild Card Winner – Yankees

I think the Twins will be in the hunt, I think the Blue Jays and the Rays will be in the hunt, but I think the Yankee offense, plus their ability to pick up a pitcher mid-season, will put them over the top.

National League East

Phillies

Braves

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Division overview — Count me in as one of those people who thinks the Phillie could struggle a little this year. In fact, when I was doing my over/unders for the season, I kept looking to take the Phillies at the under for 97 wins. Then, I would just have this vision of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels all high-fiving each other after every game and thought “nahh.” Will an offense that is anchored by the strike-out happy Ryan Howard and extremely overrated Jimmy Rollins (when was the last time he was an elite player?) be shaky, especially if Chase Utley remains injured? Absolutely. Is a bullpen without Brad Lidge for six weeks to begin the season suspect? Yep. But, the rotation is so good, do potentially dominant, they could have all the before mentioned problems and still be the cream of the division.

I don't like them to win 97 games, but I like them to win the division.

I love the Braves this year. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the Braves push the Phillies for all they are worth. Tommy Hanson is set for a breakout year, as is Jason Heyward, who, as a 19-year-old rookie, was considered a disappointment with a .277 average, 18 homers, 72 RBI, and 83 runs scored. That's a career year for some guys. Brian McCann is an underrated top offensive catcher, and Dan Uggla is going to hit the cover off the ball from second. What I don't like is the bullpen, but they will be in the hunt all the way through.

The Marlins? They are young and fun. I love Josh Johnson, Aninal Sanchez, even Ricky Nolasco have talent and strike-out stuff. Hanley Ramirez is one of the best players in the game, and despite some “holes” in his swing, Mike Stanton has superstar written all over him. Could the Marlins jump up and surprise with a wild card birth? Of course. That's the way they do things in Florida. However, I am going to be conservative with them, especially since I love the Braves this year.

As for the Mets and the Nationals, this will be a legit race for fourth place. I hate almost everything about the Mets. They have no pitching, and even when Johan Santana gets back it will be a while before he pitches like Johan Santana. Mike Pelfrey is a third starter in this league, at best, and their offense is a bunch of question marks. The Nationals arn't much better, but at least they have hope for the future. I'll take the Mets to squeeze out enough crappy wins to keep the Nationals in the cellar.

National League Central

Reds

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Pirates

Astros

Division overview - At the beginning of 2010 I felt like the Reds were a year away. I was prepared to pick them for the top spot in the division in 2011, but they jumped the gun. Is the Big Red Machine back for round two? I doubt it, but considering I don't love what anyone else in the division did, and I think the Reds have built one of the best young teams in the league, I see them repeating as NL Central victors.

I think Cinci is actually underrated. Joey Votto is the reining NL MVP, Brandon Phillips is one of the best second basemen in the league, Jay Bruce could be in line for a breakout year in 2011, Scott Rolen found the fountain of youth, and Edgar Renteria is coming off a year where he helped the Giants win a World Series. That's not even counting Drew Stubbs and Johnny Gomes, both of whom put up solid numbers last year and are the exact top-quality role players all good teams need. They also have depth in the pitching staff, with Edison Volquez healthy and ready to go, Johnny Cueto coming off an impressive year, Bronson Arroyo providing valuable veteran leadership, and Homer Bailey still looking to tap into his treasure trove of talents. And, of course, the bullpen will be, at least for a time, solidified by Ardolis Chapman, whose stuff looked every bit as good as advertised. Could he be a starter by the end of the year? Absolutely. Could he be the closer? Certainly. Either way, the Reds have hitting and pitching depth. Usually a good combo for success.

Behind them I am picking the Brewers. I LOVE their pitching. Think of facing this foursome when you walk into Milwaukee in 2011: Zach Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shawn Marcum, and veteran Randy Wolf. That aint bad at all. Consider that the Brewers will throw three pitchers, back to back to back, who were the best on their team a year ago (Greinke in Kansas City, Marcum in Toronto, and Gallardo for the Brewers). I also love Axford as the closer, taking over for retired Trevor Hoffman, who was no where near his dominant former self with the Brewers. The real question is going to be, what does Milwaukee do with Prince Fielder?

The hefty first baseman is going to get a big contract at the end of the year from someone outside of Milwaukee. They know this. Do they just hang onto him, try and win this year, and take take the draft pick at the end of the year, or do they trade him now, get something back in return to lessen the blow of losing their best power hitter? My guess is they keep him the whole year, hoping that an offense of he, Ryan Braun, Cory Hart, and Rickie Weeks is enough to make the playoffs.

I am down on the Cardinals and the Cubs. The Cards are still a scary offense, with The Man Albert Pujols, Matt Holiday, Colby Rasmus, and Yadier Molina, and even though I am not in love with Lance Berkman playing the field, I have a sense he will hit well in St. Louis. But, I have never been in love with Ryan Franklin as a closer and even with Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter both battling for Cy Youngs, the Cards rotation is thin. And I just feel like the Pujols contract situation is going to hang over this entire team, all year.

As far as the Cubs, I just don't trust this team. You can make an argument that the offense is going to have a big year, with an energized Carlos Pena looking to prove his poorous 2010 average was an abberation and Tyler Colvin coming into his own. But I just feel like there are too many guys well on the back end of their careers, like Alfonso Soriano, the oft-injured Aramis Ramirez, and even Marlon Byrd. There are a lot of mid-30's guys with injury trends on this team that will ultimately determine the team's fate.

As far as the pitching staff, I like the addition of Matt Garza but have no idea how long Carlos Zambrano will remain on the team, or how effective he will be. Ryan Dempster is a good pitcher, but not an ace, and the Cubs are going to need an ace-quality guy. Again, on paper the Cubs aren't terrible. If their older players produce at a younger level, if Zambrano, Garza, and Dempster form a top-notch 1-2-3 in the rotation, and if the tandem of Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol shut down the 8th and 9th, maybe the Cubbies surprise some people. I'm betting no.

I'm not going to spend a lot of time on the Astros and the Pirates. I am picking the Pirates simply because I think their "improvement" has to be measured in moving up from the bottom, rather than challenging for the top. Plus, I love Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, and Pedro Alvarez making up a core of young, talented players the team might build on. But, that pitching is dreadful.

Houston is up for sale, meaning Carlos Lee is out as soon as an American League team determines it needs a DH. I actually like the top of their rotation, as Wandy Rodriguez is a top-quality pitcher, Brett Myers sort of reinvented himself, and J.A. Happ is a young lefty with the potential to pitch at the top of a rotation, in my opinion. Yet, that lineup is essentially Hunter Pence and a bunch of "who is that guy?" and the bullpen is completely unproven.

NL West

Giants

Dodgers

Rockies

Padres

Diamondbacks

Division overview - I am going to say, right off the bat, I don't love this pick. The Giants, to me, were the perfect case of a team getting on a magic carpet ride during a down baseball year. All the big horses were down. Even the Phillies never seemed to have “it” when it came time for the playoffs. The Giants had great pitching and timely hitting, and they won a bunch of one-run games. I have a hard time believing that will happen again.

So, why am I picking them? Here's why:

Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are still on the team, and I love what Madison Bumgarner might bring after a little more big-league seasoning. Not much was done in terms of the offense, but the continued growth of Buster Posey and what has to be a better year from Pablo “Kung-Fu Panda” Sandoval will pay dividends, while I expect that Miguel Tejada will add a good, veteran bat to a team filled with good, but not great, hitters. Since no one in the NL West really improved all that much, I think Sandoval coming back to form could make up for some lost magic by the Bay.

In truth, however, I could see almost anyone winning this division. I like the Dodgers a lot, but I am slotting them in at third place primarily because there is such turmoil in the organization it is hard not to see that trickling down to the field. However, their lineup is solid, with Andre Ethier becoming a star, Matt Kemp looking for a breakout season, and Juan Uribe providing the double-whammy of helping the Dodgers and hurting the Giants. I also think a full year of Rafael Furcal will make a big difference.

I also like what they have done with their rotation, and they are now solid one through five with Clayton Kershaw at the top, Ted Lilly healthy and in the third spot, and Jon Garland adding a veteran presence and innings eater. If Chad Billingsley can find some consistency, they can be very good.

I like the Rockies as well but, for some reason, I feel a let down year coming. Is Ubaldo Jimenez going to be as good again in 2011 as he was in 2010? Is Carlos Gonzalez suddenly a perennial MVP candidate? Does Todd Helton have anything left in the gas tank?

Look, if the Rockies landed themselves a Michael Young to plug in at second or short, this team would be looking really good, but, again, I just don't quite buy them over the long haul. Of course, I say that almost every year, and almost every year the Rockies are sitting there battling for the division.

The team I think really falls off the map is the Padres.

We could get into the team's players, how Orlando Hudson will help at second base, how the team's young pitching might be able to duplicate what it did last year (I highly doubt it), and how Cameron Maybin is still only 23 and capable of being the impact star he was expected to be when he was in the minors. Truthfully, however, when the Padres decided to trade their best player to the Red Sox for non-MLB ready players, they should have sent their region's most famous anchorman out to make the announcement.

“I'm Ron Burgandy. Go F**k Yourself, San Diego.”

As for the Diamondbacks, as a Yankee fan I can tell you the following statement says everything you need to know about the team: the starting left fielder is scheduled to be Xavier Nady, the starting first baseman is slotted to be Juan Miranda, and the number one starter is rumored to be Ian Kennedy. If you're a Yankee fan, you know how bad things are in Arizona.


National League Wild Card Winner - Milwaukee Brewers
Yeah, I know, I am picking two NL Central teams to make the playoffs. Well, I just have this feeling about the Brewers. If they weren't in the same division as the Reds, I would fully expect them to win the Central outright, but since I love the Reds, I have to slot them in for the Wild Card. However, I think this last spot in the playoffs will live up to its reputation. Look for the Dodgers, Rockies, Braves, and Marlins to all be in there for a seat at the playoff table.

The Yankee Braintrust Farts It Up Once Again

I wasn't on board with the Russell Martin signing for the Yankees. I get a team like the Yanks not wanting to hand the starting catcher job over to a rookie right after the bat. I get that, I really do. What I don't get is bringing in a guy whose upside can be described as "ahhh" and whose downside is probably similar to one of the young kids taking on the role.
Martin hasn't been good in two years. Last year, not only was he bad, he was injured. That injury is still a concern. It was a concern when the Yankees signed him. It was a concern coming into spring training, to the point where Martin didn't even play for the first week or so, and it remains a concern today. So, not only is Martin suspect talent wise, he is suspect health wise.
If you were going to opt for the veteran rather than the rookie, wouldn't you have gone for the sure thing catcher? If not, why not either let Posada catch, or give one of the kids a shot?
Okay, you made your move, committed to Russell Martin. Fine. So the Yankees come into spring with the backup catcher spot up for grabs. The candidates? Francisco Cervelli, last year's backup to Posada; Austin Romine, the defensive-minded catcher whose bat is yet to come; and Jesus Montero, the stud offensive prospect whose defense remained a question mark.
Right off the bat, Cervelli got injured, essentially taking him out of the mix. That left Romine and Montero. The opinion was, one of the two was going to win the backup spot. Why was that the opinion? Mainly because Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman all but said that was the case. Would having a top prospect serve as a backup stunt growth? Not at all, Joe Girardi insisted. In fact, it might help that growth. How else are you suppose to learn. Was a possible jump by Romine from AA to the majors a concern? Of course not, the little general insisted. In fact, Girardi had made that very same jump in his career and been fine.
All signs pointed to one of the two kids winning a spot.
Now, at the end of March, it appears a darkhorse has taken the lead for the backup role - Gustavo Molina. Not familiar with Gustavo, the pride of Venezuela? Here is a brief bio: Molina is 29, has played a total of 23 games over 3 seasons in the majors (he didn't play in 2009 for some unknown reason), has a total of five hits and 10 strikeouts. Pretty impressive. Oh, and by the way, Molina is currently hitting .077 this spring. He has had 13 at bats, he has one hit. Say hello to your backup catcher, Yankee fans.
I can't even begin to express what a fucking disaster of a decision this is. Let's start with Molina. He stinks, pure and simple. He can't hit. Actually, it's worse than that. He's an automatic out. Maybe his defense is solid but, honestly, how solid could it be? He has played in 23 games in 3 seasons, and sat out the 2009 season seemingly because no one wanted him. If he were a good defensive catcher, and above-average backstop, wouldn't someone, somewhere, have given him a backup role already? The answer is yes. Taking Molina to New York to backup Martin is sort of like making Lawrence Taylor Charlie Sheen's new life coach. It makes no sense. If you have a catcher with injury problems and the possibility of stinking up the joint, do you really want the backup to be someone you KNOW can't fill in as a starter? Hell, Molina has no business being a backup, let alone a hamstring away from catching in the Bronx five out of seven days. It's actually a joke that the Yankees even have this kid on the roster. It is a testament to how bad Brian Cashman is at life.
Another ridiculous angle to this story is how the Yankees treated this entire thing. They flat out TOLD Montero that he didn't have to worry about hitting, just had to worry about catching, then Girardi made constant comments that Montero was looking better behind the plate. Suddenly, a week ago, both the manager and general manager decided to denegrate Montero's catching (it didn't seem much had changed) and made a big deal out of the fact that the young man wasn't hitting (remember, they told everyone they didn't give a shit if he hit AT ALL in the spring). Okay, so you have an official mindfuck going on with your best prospect. Yet, the Yankees weren't content with that. Next up on the chopping block - Austin Romine. Romine has hit a little bit, played very good defense. When it became clear that the powers that be had soured on Montero, Romine seemed to move to the front of the class. That feeling was solidified even more when Girardi made it a point to say that a jump by Romine to the majors from AA wasn't any big shakes. Yet, somehow, Romine, like Montero, has somehow lost his chance to make the club because an average (at best) catcher, with NO bat, who has played in 23 games in the majors, is on the squad. What a fucking joke.
So, now you have successfully shit on your two best catching prospects. You told Montero he didn't need to hit, then killed him for not hitting. You kept making a big deal about how well he was playing behind the plate, then said he wasn't really all that good back there, to be honest. For Romine, you made a big deal out of his defense and said his AA experience wasn't a big deal, then said he need more time in the minors before making this kind of jump. Now, Montero goes back to AAA, a league he DOMINATED in the second half of last year, and Romine goes back to AA, seemingly a MILE away from the bigs. And why? Not because another catcher outplayed them. Because your douchebag manager and asswipe general manager somehow decided that 23 putrid games in the majors counts for something more than proof that someone doesn't belong. How much you want to bet both get off to shitty starts down in the minors this year?
Again, I don't mind the Yankees not handing a spot to Montero or Romine. However, if you're going to send them down to the minors, make that decision right away. If not, then give them a chance to win the spot. Yeah, neither Romine or Montero hit much at all. Here's the thing........Molina is FUCKING WORSE!!!!!! In reality, BOTH Romine and Montero outhit that shit kind Molina, even with their .220 averages.
My major problem? What the fuck is the upside to having Molina on the team? There is none. It's not a zero, it's a -10. He will almost definitely be a detriment to the team. He will do nothing to help. What is the upside? He doesn't fucking kill someone on the field. Simple as that.
The downside to Montero or Romine? Can it be worse than Molina? Nope. The upside? HUGE! Either Montero or Romine could simply take off. Either one could tap into the talent that has had them ranked as two of baseball's best prospects. Montero could be an impact bat, even at 20 years old. Romine could be a top defender and a good bat.
There is a lot to hate about Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman. If I were a player, what I would hate the most is that both are, simply put, liars. They set the bar, then move it. Remember a few years ago, when Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner were fighting for the center field spot? Girardi announced that Gardner would be the starter. Within a few weeks, he was out and Melky was in. Girardi's word that Gardner would be the starter, even if he struggled, was good for about 2 minutes. That's the type of franchise Cashman and his little toady Girardi runs. This year, they tell Montero to focus on defense and forget about hitting. He does. Then, you decide hitting matters.....A LOT! Girardi states that Montero's development wouldn't be stunted if he made the major league squad. Then, he says he wants Montero to play everyday in the minors so they don't "stunt his growth." Girardi says defense is top priority for a backup. He then points to an inferior defensive player in Molina to play over Romine.
Here's the rule: if Joe Girardi's mouth is moving, he isn't being truthful. He's a fucking liar.
I can't tell you how much I despise Joe Girardi. The backup catcher fiasco is the first of what, I have no doubt, will be a series of shitty decisions by the manager and the general manager that will result in an bad year in the Bronx.