I really don't want to talk about last night's game. There are too many things that just piss me when I spend more than 1 minute reliving the last few innings. If I had to point out some specifics they would be: loading the bases with no one out and getting NOTHING out of it in the ninth because Robbie Cano grounds into a 4-2-3 double play; Brett Gardner wasting an out in the tenth because he one-hopped a bunt to first that Youkillis turned into an easy force at second to get the ever-fleet footed Jose Molina; that little prick Dustin Pedroia robbing Jeter of a hit and a go-ahead RBI in the tenth with a diving stop up the middle; Girardi pulling Johnny Abba with one strike against Ellsbury to use Rivera for four outs, even though the whole world knows that, at this point in his career, Mo is far more effective when he is only asked to get three outs; Teixeira continuing to struggle and looking like A-Rod up there right now, just squeezing the bat wayyyy too hard; and Rivera just throwing a freakin gofer ball to Jason bay that had no movement. Why they weren't busting that asshole inside EVERY PITCH is beyond me.
But that was yesterday. It seems as if the Yankees and Red Sox do this every year now. The Sox take a few early in the season, winning the first round, then the Yankees come back sometime in May and take round two, and so it goes, back and forth all year. It also seems that Mariano ALWAYS blows a lead to the Sox early on. As much as it hurts to watch that group celebrate on the field, it is only April 24 (well, 35 today) and there is a whole lotta baseball to be played.
However, there are some disturbing things to come out of last night's game. Brian Bruney is evidently going on the disabled list with elbow problems. He is getting, or has gotten, an MRI and will now try and get back as soon as possible. Bruney had the same thing happen to him last year. He was flying along, pitching great, then he hurt his foot, lost essentially the whole year. Hopefully this isn't as serious, but in a certain way it is already more worrisome because it involves his arm, not just his foot. Plus, it adds to the uncertainty surrounding this team right now. Bruney had established himself as the definite eighth inning guy. Now, who moves into that role? Phil Coke, who has pitched much better as of late? John Abaladejo? Does Mark Melacon, who was just called up, have it in him to take control of the later innings, the way people believe he will in the future? Not good at all.
Damaso Marte just isn't that good folks, that's what it comes down to, and with Xavier Nady on the DL and Marte just stinking it up left and right, you have to begin to wonder if yet another Brian Cashman move will prove to look good on paper and be horrendous in practice. We keep waiting for Marte to be "good" but, at some point, you have to accept someone is who they show themselves to be. Simply put, Marte's leash should be getting a lot shorter.
I hope someone has Don Mattingly on speed dial because Joe Girardi continues to show why he is a B manager trying to win with an A franchise. The yanking of Johnny Abba last night for Mariano was absurd for a variety of reasons - Rivera, as mentioned before, is far more effective when asked to only get three outs now, Ababaladejo had it working and had a strike on Ellsbury before being lifted, you need to find out what you have in a guy like Johnny Abba, especially considering Bruney will be on the DL - but the true failure in that move was that it showed the Yankees were willing, on April 24, to manage scared.
It started early in the game when Dave Eiland made a few trips out to the mound to talk to Joba Chamberlain, obviously telling him to "be careful" with Kevin Youkillis. Then, pulling Abaladejo for Rivera is a move you make in September, or even August, not April. Joe Torre NEVER managed early Yankee/Red Sox games like do or die, and Francona doesn't either. There might be a little more emotion wrapped up in the games, but it doesn't mean you step outside of your norm. Last night, Girardi looked exactly the way he has looked since taking over the Yankees - scared and uncertain. Not the way you want your manager to look.
Now, the Yankees will turn to Burnett today to get the Yankees back on track AGAIN against Beckett. Here's to hoping the team comes to play after such a devastating loss last night.
Saturday, April 25
Sunday, April 19
Journal for 4/19/09 Game versus the Indians
Welcome to From The Free Seats first official running game-time journal, where I will post my thoughts and observations from the game as they are happening (which means a few more curses mixed in than I am used to). I thought today might be nice to start this new portion of the blog up because a.) the Yanks are coming off their most embarrassing loss in recent memory and b.) they will be facing fan favorite Carl Pavano.
It is an absolutely gorgeous day (even in Connecticut) and everyone currently at the park should feel blessed to be there.
1:00 P.M. - All of the discussion this morning has been about Wang and the consensus is..........no one knows what the hell to do. I have gone back and forth on this a few times and I think the smartest thing to do would be to let him go out there and see what he can figure out. The guy is a 19-game winner who was 8-2 last year before the injury. If he isn't injured (and the yanks insist he isn't) then this is mental and the only way to deal with that is to let the man go out and pitch. No, Fenway is not the ideal spot to get healthy, but he has to get better some time, right?
1:15 P.M. - Evidently jet streams aren't that big of a deal when you make quality pitches. After walking Sizemore, Burnett got two pop flys to right that didn't travel at all. Perhaps, in a normal park in a normal universe, those would have been in the infield. Truth is, quality pitchers get quality hitters. Fausto Carmona didn't seem to struggle with the gravity-bending wind currents that have evidently set up shop at the Stadium.
1:18 P.M. - This is the loudest I have heard the Stadium over the last four games. That 2-strike count got people up and cheering. Yesterday, as the fans booed Wang, and today, as they just cheered for the strike out, is the first time I got the sense a game was being played in the Bronx. (There is still a big, big difference in the vibe, however. Last night I caught a bit of the Yankee Classic rewind of the July 4 game in '04 when Jeter went flying into the stands and you heard that traditional buzz that has been absent so far from the new place. Hopefully, when the weather gets better and the games become more meaningful, that begins to change).
1:22 P.M. - They just showed the crowd reacting to Pavano. It is safe to say that today, in my opinion as a Yankee fan, is a MUST WIN!!!!!!! This guy should not, in any way be allowed to come into Yankee Stadium in a different uniform and do something he couldn't do for four years while in pinstripes - win a game.
1:25 P.M. - Has anyone else noticed how off the YES MPH gun for last pitch thrown has been this year? I mean I don't know how many times it has posted a 57MPH reading or a 68 MPH reading, when obviously the guy was throwing much harder. Why has that continued to be a problem?
1:30 P.M. - Well, that's nice. A 1-2-3 inning recorded by Pavano where no one got the ball out of the infield and the Shin Soo Choo hits another right fielder homer. That one looked to be struck well and it just got over the fence but, still, the # of homers so far at the Stadium is literally absurd. I like offense as much as the next guy, but who wants to watch Coors Field baseball in the Bronx?
1:34 P.M. - Pretty obvious that Burnett doesn't have quite the stuff he did his last outing, or maybe the Indians are just a much better hitting ballclub. And as I write that he gets a nice 6-4-3 double play to get out of the inning.
Second servings on Pavano. Let's hope for a Wang-ian like second for Raja of Rehab here, shall we?
1:35 P.M. - AMC HD (Channel 222 if you're in the Connecticut Comcast service area) is playing Heat for the third time this weekend. Love that film. I remember being somewhat disappointed when I first saw it because Pacino's acting seemed so over the top, but over the years it has become one of my favorite movies. Just a GREAT cops versus robbers flick.
1:45 P.M. - And that's why defense does matter at first base. Teixeira makes a Mattingly-esque type of play on a hard liner that had right field written all over it (and if it ever got into right, who knows what might have happened. It might have launched from the ground over the wall or something). Tex is gonna end up saving everyone a lot of errors this year.
1:50 P.M. - Lost in all the Wang worries is how bad Matsui has looked. Godzilla had a nice spring but, so far, he has looked 60 rather than 34-years old. He runs with a noticeable limp, there doesn't appear to be a lot of pop left in his bat, and he seems to be reaching for pitches as he struggles through. The biggest problem the Yankees face in potentially losing Nady for the season is what to do if Matsui just doesn't have it anymore. Before, it simply would have been Swisher getting those at bats. Now, Swish is your every day RF, so Matsui has to run out there at DH. If Nady truly is gone for the year and Matsui doesn't respond, the Yanks could definitely be in the market for another hitter (and remember, the Yanks have Matsui, Nady, and Damon coming off the books next year, so they could conceivably add a big outfield bat without worrying they would be putting a huge dent in the bottom line).
1:59 P.M. - Michael Kay made a good point last inning (it took me a while to come to grips with that, but now I am ready to admit to such a monumental shift in the norm). The guy who is salivating the most over the "jetstreams" must be A-Rod. His popups travel further than most anyway. If that wind continues to blow out the way that it has, A-Rod might be due for a 40+ homer year, even with his month+ time off.
2:04 P.M. - We can talk about how the new stadium plays, but that Garko homer was just an absolute rocket. That ball is outta every stadium in the majors except maybe Fenway, where that nasty looking Green Monster probably would have gobbled it up.
Burnett isn't as sharp today as he has been but it is still only 3-0 and Carl Pavano is on the mound. If the Yanks can't find a way to slap Pavano around for more than 3 runs, you can't put that on Burnett. The Yanks paid big bucks for quality pitching, not perfection. A 3-run deficit against Pavano and this Indians bullpen should be laughably easy to handle.
2:15 P.M. - Okay, here is a spot where you need to score some runs. Jeter gets the first hit, a liner double, and Pavano looks a little uneasy. Damon needs to do something.
2:16 P.M. - And, as I say that, Damon lines one right on the button to third. Unfortunately the third baseman was standing there and made a nice play. Two outs now with Jeter still at second.
I have to tell you, the fact that Pavano is pitching a 1-hitter right now really, really, really, really bugs the hell out of me, especially considering he is throwing nothing but junk up there. It would be nice if the Yankee hitters started picking up on some jetstreams right now.
2:19 P.M. - Nice, nice hitting by Tex. That wasn't a bad pitch and it fooled him. He just kept the hands back and rocked it into right. A Swisher Sweet would be nice right about now.
2:20 P.M. - You know, as much of an annoying and bothersome personality as A-Rod can be, you can see how much the team needs him here. Swisher is not a four or a five hitter, more like a terrific six or seven hitter. A-Rod lengthens this lineup perfectly. Once he gets healthy, to me the lineup should be Jeter, Damon, Tex, A-Rod, Posada, Cano, Swisher, Matsui, Gardner. On the days when Posada DHs, you simply move Cano up in the lineup. His hot start would seem to warrant more run-production responsibilities.
2:25 P.M. - Not many times you get to say this with a Yankee, Indians game, but this is flying by right now. Top of the fifth and we are less than an hour and a half into the game? Important spot right here for Burnett. Keep the Indians at bay and let the Yanks get their licks in against Pavano as quickly as possible. There is only so long the guy can go pitching a 2-hitter.
2:30 P.M. - The length of games is certainly a problem and the biggest problem effecting that are the umpires. Burnett throws a strike that hugs the outside part of the plate, a pitch that was called a strike three times already today. This time? It's called a ball. The way umpires make up their strike zone on the fly is just absurd. More strikes should be called. Belt high fastballs should be called. Consistency throughout the game should be demanded. If you had umps who kept a consistent strike zone throughout the game, and didn't discount any call that was right down the middle, these games would come in much quicker.
2:34 P.M. - Nice pitching by Burnett. He saved himself a headache there. You can't walk the #9 hitter in this lineup, the way he did right there with Cabrera. It almost came back to haunt him as Sizemore looked like he launched one to right, but the laws of physics decided to show up and the ball didn't sail 500 feet over the wall. Now, it would be nice if the Yanks could somehow figure out the magic that is Carl Pavano.
2:39 P.M. - Two pathetic swings by Cano and Matsui there and Pavano is one out away from getting through the fifth with a 2-hit, one run game. This is just sad really. It isn't as if Pavano is channeling Don Drysdale here. Just terrible swings by the Yanks. And as nice of a guy as Cody Ransom might be, whatever the Yankees saw in him is yet another indication of how shaky their organizational talent-evaluating truly is. No one thought Ransom would be a slugging hero, but he simply can't hit at all and he has already made enough errors (and too few spectacular plays) to warrant a demotion. On that Pavano pitch, Ransom literally swung while the ball was on the ground as if he just simply wanted to make contact.
This is just a horrific offensive showing from the Yanks right now. They have four innings to turn it around.
2:48 P.M. - With a man on in the top of the sixth and one out, Burnett is over 90 pitches. If he gets a double play here I think you can still send him out for the seventh, but if not and he is over 100 after this inning, you probably don't send him out. So who is your seveth inning guy today? Bruney and Mo are set up for the eighth and ninth, especially if the Yanks scratch out a few runs. Do you go to Coke? Marte? It will be interesting.
2:51 P.M. - Terrific play from Cano there, backhanding the ball, keeping it from going into center, flipping it to Jeter who did a nice job catching and throwing quick for the DP. Got Burnett out of the inning and might buy him the seventh. That's the type of play Cano is capable of making every day. It's his lack of concentration that really keeps him from becoming Roberto Alomar.
2:57 P.M. - Talk about sucking the life out of an inning. Jeter at times seems like he wants to place a ball instead of just hit the damn thing and it looked like that there. He passed up on two pitches on the middle/inside part of the plate for one on the outside to try and line it into right. And the swing was less than aggressive. Not a great at bat for Jeter and his penchant for hitting into DP's continue. Coming out of this inning with nothing would be very, very, very bad as Pavano just hung a pitch to Tex that he might have been able to hit to outerspace.
3:04 P.M. - Two terrible at bats kill the Yankees there. Jeter hits a weak grounder to second for a DP after taking gofer ball fastballs right down the middle. Then, Swisher comes up, takes a hanger right down the middle that could have been CRUSHED, then checks his swing on a ball, then swings at a bad breaking ball off the plate. The fact that the Yanks have let this creep get off pitching this game is almost as embarrasing as losing 22-4 yesterday. Again, have some pride. Have some guts. Get some hits.
3:11 P.M - This is a bad, bad gut-check game for the Yankees. First, they were embarrassed yesterday. You would expect a little attitude today. Second, the Yanks have made it very clear what little respect they had/have for Pavano, a guy who CLEARLY had no desire to actually pitch for this team. He came into this game with a 7 ERA and he throws nothing but junk. I mean NOTHING but junk.
We are in the seventh and Pavano is beating this team 3-1. As a Yankee fan, I can tell you this game ticks me off far, far, far more than yesterday's game. Pavano DESERVES to get beat up and now he will leave with a chance to win the game.
3:15 P.M. - Is it me, or is it obvious that Burnett is gassed here and should be removed? Especially against Sizemore, who already rocketed a pitch off of Burnett today? He's walked 6, thrown 106. I'm sorry but Girardi always seems to be one step behind when it comes to making moves. He either yanks guys too quickly or leaves them in their two long. I'm starting to get the sense that he is Chevy Chase at the blackjack table in National Lampoon Vegas Vacation.
3:18 P.M. - That was honestly the best case scenario with Sizemore. Burnett was obviously spent at the beginning of the inning. Girardi now brings in his shaky bullpen in a bases loaded, 1-out scenario. As a manager your job is to put people in the BEST situation possible and then ask them to perform. Girardi rarely does that. This is a prime example of why Girardi is a bad manager. Now, you HAVE to come in throwing strikes. With an erratic umpire on the mound, that is just a horrid position to put your bullpen in.
Does anyone have Don Mattingly on speed dial?
(before anyone accuses me of being reactionary when it comes to Girardi, understand that this isn't about the first three weeks of the season here. This is about an entire season last year. Girardi has proven himself to be either a mediocre manager or a bad manager, depending on the day. There is nothing one can point to that Girardi does exceptionally well. If you're going to spend $200 million on a team, why not have the best manager possible?)
3:25 P.M. - Give Johnny Abba a lot of credit. His manager put him in a terrible situation and he did a terrific job of getting two weak grounders. Now the Yanks, with nine outs to go, have three innings to pull out two runs. Maybe they will be lucky enough to have the hall of famer Carl Pavano out of the game and they can go after some Indians bullpen help.
3:31 P.M. - Now all you want from Matsui is for him to turn the hands over and at least ground it to first or second. Don't leave Cano standing on second for Cody Ransom and Jose Molina.
3:33 P.M. - Forget everything I said about Matsui. The man is the epitome of clutch. Seriously, nice piece of hitting there. Just went with the pitch and lined it into left center for the hit and the RBI. You also have Posada on the bench. One would assume that you could bunt Ransom and pinch hit for Molina with Posada. Problem is, even with Matsui on second his knee has been so bad there is no guarantee that you will be able to score him from second on a hit. But you still have to bunt Ransom and hope that something good happens to where you don't need Matsui to round third at 100 percent (for those wondering why you don't pinch run for Matsui, it's because there is a lot of game left and Pena would be your only option).
3:38 P.M. - Yet another plea from Cody Ransom to be sent down. Bad bunt all the way around, but especially because Matsui is running. You HAVE to make the third baseman or even the first baseman (who is right handed and would have to pivot around to throw to second) to field that ball. Again, if Ransom can't hit and isn't a great fielder, explain to me why he is up at the majors?
3:41 P.M. - WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!! Posada with the homer. That is a tough one. Replay looks to show that it hit the top of the wall, bounced off one of the fans, and then came back into play. Now it will be interesting because it does appear that the RF's glove touched it as well and might have bounced it back into play. Very interesting.
(BTW, replay is suppose to speed up the game, right? Instead of endlessly debating, this was suppose to eliminate the debate. But the truth is, this has gone on for a while, a lot longer than if they had just made a call and gone with it.)
3:47 P.M. - I am a Yankee fan here so call me biased, but I think the umps got this one right for one simple reason - the rule of thumb with instant replay in every sport is that there has to be indisputable evidence to make an overrule. We see in the NFL all the time refs overturn calls where there is absolutely no evidence to support their arguement. Right there, one COULD have made the case that the RF's glove touched the ball and that's what caused it to bounce back into play. However, there wasn't one angle where that was obvious. So, without indisputable evidence, the umps did the right thing and differed to the call on the field. To me, instant replay should be reserved for flag poles and for when the ball bounces off an outfield wall or something back into play. That replay right there is really borderline, I feel. That's a judgement call by the ump because, really, that is a fan interference call, not a "did it go over the wall" call.
3:53 P.M. - Well, after all that, it's 4-3 Yankees and Posada continues to show that he has made a full recovery. That was an old-time Yankee homer, just getting over the wall. Great, clutch hit by Posada. Now your bullpen sets up perfectly. Bruney for the eighth, Mariano for the ninth. As long as everyone stays to form, this would be a nice win for the yanks. That assumes everyone will do their job. I, for one, PRAY they do, not so much for the win as to avoid the "Joba needs to go to the pen" arguements that will come out.
(One of the positives from this game, I believe, was the 2/3 inning from Johnny Abba. If Bruney continues to pitch well, and Rivera stays Rivera, the Yanks really only need to find one or two more sturdy, solid pitchers. Johnny took a step in that direction today. As I said, he picked his manager up by coming in to a no-win situation and winning. If Phil Coke can pitch with more consistency and Marte can get things figured out, the bullpen can still be a real positive).
4:01 P.M. - Bruney has definitely solidified himself as that 8th inning guy and, somehow with Joba not in the pen, the Yankees will find a way to get the ball to Mariano with a lead. Bruney, Albaladejo, Phil Coke, and really every other bullpen guy (even Mo) are prime examples of why the "Joba needs t be in the pen" arguement is so absurd. These guys were retreads who found a niche in the bullpen after failing as starters. Mariano was a failed starter. Bruney was cut by the Diamondbacks. Albaladejo was a throw-in piece to a minor trade, and Phil Coke was a guy who had a 5 ERA in the minors as a starter. Joba, for his short career so far as a starter, has an under-3 ERA. He has 4 PLUS pitches and he is a big, powerful kid who could be a horse.
Again, I would just like to offer my thanks to Bruney because, to me, there is nothing more insufferable than listening to people talk about Joba going to the pen. But it won't end. Bruney could pitch 30 scoreless innings and, the first time he gives up a 2-run dinger the calls will come for a move. Some people are too arrogant to admit they are flat out wrong (calling Mike Francesa. Is Mike Francesa in the house?).
4:15 P.M. - Ransom needs something here. He is hitting .128. Even for a place-holder, that's not cutting it. He has a 2-0 count. If you can't put a good swing on this, it's time to look for different employment.
4:19 P.M. - Well, if you're Cody Ransom, you'll take a broken bat double that falls in because the left fielder loses it in the sun and pulls up. Tonight, when he's talking to the girls who can't get in to see Jeter at the night club, that will turn into a rocket down the line that put a close, nip-and-tuck game to bed as the crowd stood in applause. Score one for the Cody.
4:30 P.M. - What looked to be an uninspired game by the Yankees that would be remembered for how their favorite son, Carl Pavano, stymied them for 6 innings turns onto a terrific, come-from-behind win to split the series with the Indians. Mariano comes in and gives up a hit, but that's it. A ho-hum 9th and the Yanks win 7-3. Nice way to go into the next series against the A's.
Game observations - The negative from this game? That's an obvious - Carl Pavano and his virtuoso performance. The rest was all positive. First, Matsui got a big hit, which is much needed and good news for him, Second, the team has had a nice knack for coming back in games early this season, something missing last year. Third, Bruney continues to be that 8th inning shut down gut and Jonthan Albaladejo saved the game for the team, getting big outs in that top of the seventh, when things could have gotten out of control. If Johnny Abba gives up any kind of hit there, the game is probably over. Fourth, Posada seems to be in mid-season shape and has been swinging a GREAT bat this year. Fifth, Burnett bent but didn't break and the Yanks played nice defense, especially at first, second, and third. Tex, Cano, and Ransom all made really nice plays.
Now, the yanks will get ready to welcome back Jason Giambi and the newly retooled A's. With a weekend series at Boston looming, you would like to see the Yankees rattle off a few wins in a row here. The big question this week will be who makes the start on Friday? Is Wang out there at Fenway or do the Yanks skip a Wanger start? We will see.
It is an absolutely gorgeous day (even in Connecticut) and everyone currently at the park should feel blessed to be there.
1:00 P.M. - All of the discussion this morning has been about Wang and the consensus is..........no one knows what the hell to do. I have gone back and forth on this a few times and I think the smartest thing to do would be to let him go out there and see what he can figure out. The guy is a 19-game winner who was 8-2 last year before the injury. If he isn't injured (and the yanks insist he isn't) then this is mental and the only way to deal with that is to let the man go out and pitch. No, Fenway is not the ideal spot to get healthy, but he has to get better some time, right?
1:15 P.M. - Evidently jet streams aren't that big of a deal when you make quality pitches. After walking Sizemore, Burnett got two pop flys to right that didn't travel at all. Perhaps, in a normal park in a normal universe, those would have been in the infield. Truth is, quality pitchers get quality hitters. Fausto Carmona didn't seem to struggle with the gravity-bending wind currents that have evidently set up shop at the Stadium.
1:18 P.M. - This is the loudest I have heard the Stadium over the last four games. That 2-strike count got people up and cheering. Yesterday, as the fans booed Wang, and today, as they just cheered for the strike out, is the first time I got the sense a game was being played in the Bronx. (There is still a big, big difference in the vibe, however. Last night I caught a bit of the Yankee Classic rewind of the July 4 game in '04 when Jeter went flying into the stands and you heard that traditional buzz that has been absent so far from the new place. Hopefully, when the weather gets better and the games become more meaningful, that begins to change).
1:22 P.M. - They just showed the crowd reacting to Pavano. It is safe to say that today, in my opinion as a Yankee fan, is a MUST WIN!!!!!!! This guy should not, in any way be allowed to come into Yankee Stadium in a different uniform and do something he couldn't do for four years while in pinstripes - win a game.
1:25 P.M. - Has anyone else noticed how off the YES MPH gun for last pitch thrown has been this year? I mean I don't know how many times it has posted a 57MPH reading or a 68 MPH reading, when obviously the guy was throwing much harder. Why has that continued to be a problem?
1:30 P.M. - Well, that's nice. A 1-2-3 inning recorded by Pavano where no one got the ball out of the infield and the Shin Soo Choo hits another right fielder homer. That one looked to be struck well and it just got over the fence but, still, the # of homers so far at the Stadium is literally absurd. I like offense as much as the next guy, but who wants to watch Coors Field baseball in the Bronx?
1:34 P.M. - Pretty obvious that Burnett doesn't have quite the stuff he did his last outing, or maybe the Indians are just a much better hitting ballclub. And as I write that he gets a nice 6-4-3 double play to get out of the inning.
Second servings on Pavano. Let's hope for a Wang-ian like second for Raja of Rehab here, shall we?
1:35 P.M. - AMC HD (Channel 222 if you're in the Connecticut Comcast service area) is playing Heat for the third time this weekend. Love that film. I remember being somewhat disappointed when I first saw it because Pacino's acting seemed so over the top, but over the years it has become one of my favorite movies. Just a GREAT cops versus robbers flick.
1:45 P.M. - And that's why defense does matter at first base. Teixeira makes a Mattingly-esque type of play on a hard liner that had right field written all over it (and if it ever got into right, who knows what might have happened. It might have launched from the ground over the wall or something). Tex is gonna end up saving everyone a lot of errors this year.
1:50 P.M. - Lost in all the Wang worries is how bad Matsui has looked. Godzilla had a nice spring but, so far, he has looked 60 rather than 34-years old. He runs with a noticeable limp, there doesn't appear to be a lot of pop left in his bat, and he seems to be reaching for pitches as he struggles through. The biggest problem the Yankees face in potentially losing Nady for the season is what to do if Matsui just doesn't have it anymore. Before, it simply would have been Swisher getting those at bats. Now, Swish is your every day RF, so Matsui has to run out there at DH. If Nady truly is gone for the year and Matsui doesn't respond, the Yanks could definitely be in the market for another hitter (and remember, the Yanks have Matsui, Nady, and Damon coming off the books next year, so they could conceivably add a big outfield bat without worrying they would be putting a huge dent in the bottom line).
1:59 P.M. - Michael Kay made a good point last inning (it took me a while to come to grips with that, but now I am ready to admit to such a monumental shift in the norm). The guy who is salivating the most over the "jetstreams" must be A-Rod. His popups travel further than most anyway. If that wind continues to blow out the way that it has, A-Rod might be due for a 40+ homer year, even with his month+ time off.
2:04 P.M. - We can talk about how the new stadium plays, but that Garko homer was just an absolute rocket. That ball is outta every stadium in the majors except maybe Fenway, where that nasty looking Green Monster probably would have gobbled it up.
Burnett isn't as sharp today as he has been but it is still only 3-0 and Carl Pavano is on the mound. If the Yanks can't find a way to slap Pavano around for more than 3 runs, you can't put that on Burnett. The Yanks paid big bucks for quality pitching, not perfection. A 3-run deficit against Pavano and this Indians bullpen should be laughably easy to handle.
2:15 P.M. - Okay, here is a spot where you need to score some runs. Jeter gets the first hit, a liner double, and Pavano looks a little uneasy. Damon needs to do something.
2:16 P.M. - And, as I say that, Damon lines one right on the button to third. Unfortunately the third baseman was standing there and made a nice play. Two outs now with Jeter still at second.
I have to tell you, the fact that Pavano is pitching a 1-hitter right now really, really, really, really bugs the hell out of me, especially considering he is throwing nothing but junk up there. It would be nice if the Yankee hitters started picking up on some jetstreams right now.
2:19 P.M. - Nice, nice hitting by Tex. That wasn't a bad pitch and it fooled him. He just kept the hands back and rocked it into right. A Swisher Sweet would be nice right about now.
2:20 P.M. - You know, as much of an annoying and bothersome personality as A-Rod can be, you can see how much the team needs him here. Swisher is not a four or a five hitter, more like a terrific six or seven hitter. A-Rod lengthens this lineup perfectly. Once he gets healthy, to me the lineup should be Jeter, Damon, Tex, A-Rod, Posada, Cano, Swisher, Matsui, Gardner. On the days when Posada DHs, you simply move Cano up in the lineup. His hot start would seem to warrant more run-production responsibilities.
2:25 P.M. - Not many times you get to say this with a Yankee, Indians game, but this is flying by right now. Top of the fifth and we are less than an hour and a half into the game? Important spot right here for Burnett. Keep the Indians at bay and let the Yanks get their licks in against Pavano as quickly as possible. There is only so long the guy can go pitching a 2-hitter.
2:30 P.M. - The length of games is certainly a problem and the biggest problem effecting that are the umpires. Burnett throws a strike that hugs the outside part of the plate, a pitch that was called a strike three times already today. This time? It's called a ball. The way umpires make up their strike zone on the fly is just absurd. More strikes should be called. Belt high fastballs should be called. Consistency throughout the game should be demanded. If you had umps who kept a consistent strike zone throughout the game, and didn't discount any call that was right down the middle, these games would come in much quicker.
2:34 P.M. - Nice pitching by Burnett. He saved himself a headache there. You can't walk the #9 hitter in this lineup, the way he did right there with Cabrera. It almost came back to haunt him as Sizemore looked like he launched one to right, but the laws of physics decided to show up and the ball didn't sail 500 feet over the wall. Now, it would be nice if the Yanks could somehow figure out the magic that is Carl Pavano.
2:39 P.M. - Two pathetic swings by Cano and Matsui there and Pavano is one out away from getting through the fifth with a 2-hit, one run game. This is just sad really. It isn't as if Pavano is channeling Don Drysdale here. Just terrible swings by the Yanks. And as nice of a guy as Cody Ransom might be, whatever the Yankees saw in him is yet another indication of how shaky their organizational talent-evaluating truly is. No one thought Ransom would be a slugging hero, but he simply can't hit at all and he has already made enough errors (and too few spectacular plays) to warrant a demotion. On that Pavano pitch, Ransom literally swung while the ball was on the ground as if he just simply wanted to make contact.
This is just a horrific offensive showing from the Yanks right now. They have four innings to turn it around.
2:48 P.M. - With a man on in the top of the sixth and one out, Burnett is over 90 pitches. If he gets a double play here I think you can still send him out for the seventh, but if not and he is over 100 after this inning, you probably don't send him out. So who is your seveth inning guy today? Bruney and Mo are set up for the eighth and ninth, especially if the Yanks scratch out a few runs. Do you go to Coke? Marte? It will be interesting.
2:51 P.M. - Terrific play from Cano there, backhanding the ball, keeping it from going into center, flipping it to Jeter who did a nice job catching and throwing quick for the DP. Got Burnett out of the inning and might buy him the seventh. That's the type of play Cano is capable of making every day. It's his lack of concentration that really keeps him from becoming Roberto Alomar.
2:57 P.M. - Talk about sucking the life out of an inning. Jeter at times seems like he wants to place a ball instead of just hit the damn thing and it looked like that there. He passed up on two pitches on the middle/inside part of the plate for one on the outside to try and line it into right. And the swing was less than aggressive. Not a great at bat for Jeter and his penchant for hitting into DP's continue. Coming out of this inning with nothing would be very, very, very bad as Pavano just hung a pitch to Tex that he might have been able to hit to outerspace.
3:04 P.M. - Two terrible at bats kill the Yankees there. Jeter hits a weak grounder to second for a DP after taking gofer ball fastballs right down the middle. Then, Swisher comes up, takes a hanger right down the middle that could have been CRUSHED, then checks his swing on a ball, then swings at a bad breaking ball off the plate. The fact that the Yanks have let this creep get off pitching this game is almost as embarrasing as losing 22-4 yesterday. Again, have some pride. Have some guts. Get some hits.
3:11 P.M - This is a bad, bad gut-check game for the Yankees. First, they were embarrassed yesterday. You would expect a little attitude today. Second, the Yanks have made it very clear what little respect they had/have for Pavano, a guy who CLEARLY had no desire to actually pitch for this team. He came into this game with a 7 ERA and he throws nothing but junk. I mean NOTHING but junk.
We are in the seventh and Pavano is beating this team 3-1. As a Yankee fan, I can tell you this game ticks me off far, far, far more than yesterday's game. Pavano DESERVES to get beat up and now he will leave with a chance to win the game.
3:15 P.M. - Is it me, or is it obvious that Burnett is gassed here and should be removed? Especially against Sizemore, who already rocketed a pitch off of Burnett today? He's walked 6, thrown 106. I'm sorry but Girardi always seems to be one step behind when it comes to making moves. He either yanks guys too quickly or leaves them in their two long. I'm starting to get the sense that he is Chevy Chase at the blackjack table in National Lampoon Vegas Vacation.
3:18 P.M. - That was honestly the best case scenario with Sizemore. Burnett was obviously spent at the beginning of the inning. Girardi now brings in his shaky bullpen in a bases loaded, 1-out scenario. As a manager your job is to put people in the BEST situation possible and then ask them to perform. Girardi rarely does that. This is a prime example of why Girardi is a bad manager. Now, you HAVE to come in throwing strikes. With an erratic umpire on the mound, that is just a horrid position to put your bullpen in.
Does anyone have Don Mattingly on speed dial?
(before anyone accuses me of being reactionary when it comes to Girardi, understand that this isn't about the first three weeks of the season here. This is about an entire season last year. Girardi has proven himself to be either a mediocre manager or a bad manager, depending on the day. There is nothing one can point to that Girardi does exceptionally well. If you're going to spend $200 million on a team, why not have the best manager possible?)
3:25 P.M. - Give Johnny Abba a lot of credit. His manager put him in a terrible situation and he did a terrific job of getting two weak grounders. Now the Yanks, with nine outs to go, have three innings to pull out two runs. Maybe they will be lucky enough to have the hall of famer Carl Pavano out of the game and they can go after some Indians bullpen help.
3:31 P.M. - Now all you want from Matsui is for him to turn the hands over and at least ground it to first or second. Don't leave Cano standing on second for Cody Ransom and Jose Molina.
3:33 P.M. - Forget everything I said about Matsui. The man is the epitome of clutch. Seriously, nice piece of hitting there. Just went with the pitch and lined it into left center for the hit and the RBI. You also have Posada on the bench. One would assume that you could bunt Ransom and pinch hit for Molina with Posada. Problem is, even with Matsui on second his knee has been so bad there is no guarantee that you will be able to score him from second on a hit. But you still have to bunt Ransom and hope that something good happens to where you don't need Matsui to round third at 100 percent (for those wondering why you don't pinch run for Matsui, it's because there is a lot of game left and Pena would be your only option).
3:38 P.M. - Yet another plea from Cody Ransom to be sent down. Bad bunt all the way around, but especially because Matsui is running. You HAVE to make the third baseman or even the first baseman (who is right handed and would have to pivot around to throw to second) to field that ball. Again, if Ransom can't hit and isn't a great fielder, explain to me why he is up at the majors?
3:41 P.M. - WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!! Posada with the homer. That is a tough one. Replay looks to show that it hit the top of the wall, bounced off one of the fans, and then came back into play. Now it will be interesting because it does appear that the RF's glove touched it as well and might have bounced it back into play. Very interesting.
(BTW, replay is suppose to speed up the game, right? Instead of endlessly debating, this was suppose to eliminate the debate. But the truth is, this has gone on for a while, a lot longer than if they had just made a call and gone with it.)
3:47 P.M. - I am a Yankee fan here so call me biased, but I think the umps got this one right for one simple reason - the rule of thumb with instant replay in every sport is that there has to be indisputable evidence to make an overrule. We see in the NFL all the time refs overturn calls where there is absolutely no evidence to support their arguement. Right there, one COULD have made the case that the RF's glove touched the ball and that's what caused it to bounce back into play. However, there wasn't one angle where that was obvious. So, without indisputable evidence, the umps did the right thing and differed to the call on the field. To me, instant replay should be reserved for flag poles and for when the ball bounces off an outfield wall or something back into play. That replay right there is really borderline, I feel. That's a judgement call by the ump because, really, that is a fan interference call, not a "did it go over the wall" call.
3:53 P.M. - Well, after all that, it's 4-3 Yankees and Posada continues to show that he has made a full recovery. That was an old-time Yankee homer, just getting over the wall. Great, clutch hit by Posada. Now your bullpen sets up perfectly. Bruney for the eighth, Mariano for the ninth. As long as everyone stays to form, this would be a nice win for the yanks. That assumes everyone will do their job. I, for one, PRAY they do, not so much for the win as to avoid the "Joba needs to go to the pen" arguements that will come out.
(One of the positives from this game, I believe, was the 2/3 inning from Johnny Abba. If Bruney continues to pitch well, and Rivera stays Rivera, the Yanks really only need to find one or two more sturdy, solid pitchers. Johnny took a step in that direction today. As I said, he picked his manager up by coming in to a no-win situation and winning. If Phil Coke can pitch with more consistency and Marte can get things figured out, the bullpen can still be a real positive).
4:01 P.M. - Bruney has definitely solidified himself as that 8th inning guy and, somehow with Joba not in the pen, the Yankees will find a way to get the ball to Mariano with a lead. Bruney, Albaladejo, Phil Coke, and really every other bullpen guy (even Mo) are prime examples of why the "Joba needs t be in the pen" arguement is so absurd. These guys were retreads who found a niche in the bullpen after failing as starters. Mariano was a failed starter. Bruney was cut by the Diamondbacks. Albaladejo was a throw-in piece to a minor trade, and Phil Coke was a guy who had a 5 ERA in the minors as a starter. Joba, for his short career so far as a starter, has an under-3 ERA. He has 4 PLUS pitches and he is a big, powerful kid who could be a horse.
Again, I would just like to offer my thanks to Bruney because, to me, there is nothing more insufferable than listening to people talk about Joba going to the pen. But it won't end. Bruney could pitch 30 scoreless innings and, the first time he gives up a 2-run dinger the calls will come for a move. Some people are too arrogant to admit they are flat out wrong (calling Mike Francesa. Is Mike Francesa in the house?).
4:15 P.M. - Ransom needs something here. He is hitting .128. Even for a place-holder, that's not cutting it. He has a 2-0 count. If you can't put a good swing on this, it's time to look for different employment.
4:19 P.M. - Well, if you're Cody Ransom, you'll take a broken bat double that falls in because the left fielder loses it in the sun and pulls up. Tonight, when he's talking to the girls who can't get in to see Jeter at the night club, that will turn into a rocket down the line that put a close, nip-and-tuck game to bed as the crowd stood in applause. Score one for the Cody.
4:30 P.M. - What looked to be an uninspired game by the Yankees that would be remembered for how their favorite son, Carl Pavano, stymied them for 6 innings turns onto a terrific, come-from-behind win to split the series with the Indians. Mariano comes in and gives up a hit, but that's it. A ho-hum 9th and the Yanks win 7-3. Nice way to go into the next series against the A's.
Game observations - The negative from this game? That's an obvious - Carl Pavano and his virtuoso performance. The rest was all positive. First, Matsui got a big hit, which is much needed and good news for him, Second, the team has had a nice knack for coming back in games early this season, something missing last year. Third, Bruney continues to be that 8th inning shut down gut and Jonthan Albaladejo saved the game for the team, getting big outs in that top of the seventh, when things could have gotten out of control. If Johnny Abba gives up any kind of hit there, the game is probably over. Fourth, Posada seems to be in mid-season shape and has been swinging a GREAT bat this year. Fifth, Burnett bent but didn't break and the Yanks played nice defense, especially at first, second, and third. Tex, Cano, and Ransom all made really nice plays.
Now, the yanks will get ready to welcome back Jason Giambi and the newly retooled A's. With a weekend series at Boston looming, you would like to see the Yankees rattle off a few wins in a row here. The big question this week will be who makes the start on Friday? Is Wang out there at Fenway or do the Yanks skip a Wanger start? We will see.
Saturday, April 18
On a fine April afternoon, a couple of observations as the Yanks comeback from down 45
I thought this might be a good time to put a few random thoughts down as I watch the Yanks play through a wonderful 20-4 game, in which they are not in the lead.
*I HATE joining the overreaction crowd that proclaims the seasom done after less than 20 games of a 162 game schedule has been played, but I do think the warning bells have to be sounded now in regards to Chien Mien Wang. This isn't early season struggles here folks. This is just non-competitive. Joba struggled yesterday. Wang simply doesn't look like he belongs on the mound.
I have literally no evidence to back up what I am about to say, but something physically has to be wrong with the man. His velocity has been nonexistent this season (that patented 94 MPH sinker is barely getting over 90 now), his pitches have little bite to them, and everything is up. How could this possibly be simple mechanics? Seriously, no pitcher suffers through mechanics issues where they simply can't get someone out. Joba had mechanics issues yesterday, Burnett had mechanics issues his first game of the season, and because they have great stuff they were able to record outs and give a presentable outing. This is about stuff, as in Wang has none right now. Nothing is working, and I don't care what anyone says about his "side work," there is something more than a crisis of confidence going on here. Maybe his foot hasn't healed and he can't push over. Maybe something is wrong with his arm and he isn't telling anyone. But, at this point, something needs to be done.
What? I have no idea. I don't think you can officially send Wang down to the minors at this point. I'm sure he isn't eligible for that kinda move. Do you "find" an injury, even if none appears real, to send him out to get right? Do you skip him a start? Do you throw him out there a couple of more times and hope things turn around? I'm not sure how many more of these the team can take. Wang has officially lost 3 of the 6 total games the Yankees this year, and none of them have been competitive. I don't know what has to be done, but at this point I think more than weekends with Dave Eiland are needed.
*I am shocked right field is playing so short. I mean, SHOCKED and a little disturbed. I like offense as much as the next guy, but the Yanks went out and spent the equivalent of the GDP on pitching to make sure their success isn't predicated on winning 8-7 games. I don't want this to be an American League ball park version of Colorado or Houston. Hopefully things calm down a little bit, but some of the homers today were really a joke. Even Tex knew he didn't get all of that one when he got back to the dugout. You could see him almost grimace, as if to say 'wow.'
*Another disturbing aspect of the new stadium is the church-atmosphere. Today was the first time it sounded a little like the old Stadium when the fans were booing Wang off the mound. Besides that, it has sounded like a crowd that has almost been interrupted by a baseball game at certain points in time. And there is nothing worse than seeing sooooo many empty seats behind homeplate and up the foul lines. Even when the place is packed, it looks like someone bought the place out. Just not a good look.
*I am willing to give everyone the benefit of the doubt, but I still do not get Joe Girardi as a manager. In the Kansas City game where the bullpen blew the lead for Joba, Girardi brought Marte in to handle two lefties. His stuff was obviously on, he got two quick outs, he had a one run lead, and Billy Butler was coming to the plate. Not only that, but afterwards there were two lefties coming up after Butler. Does Girardi leave Marte in? Nope. Here comes Veras, who gives up a walk. Then, he brings in Coke, who gives up the lead. HUH??????????? Doesn't make any sense. The reasoning given after the game is "Billy Butler kills lefties." Couple of things wrong with this logic. First, we're talking about Billy Butler, not Mickey Mantle. Butler is playing for Kansas City for a reason. If you're a good pitcher you should be able to get Billy Butler out. However, if for some reason you decide you don't want to let Marte pitch to Butler, try and let him get himself out, give him nothing to hit, and then go after the lefties. Marte was ON. Why give that up? Horrid.
Second, in the first game at the Stadium, Joe pulls Sabathia, brings in Edwar Ramirez for some reason, then brings in Phil Coke, who throw three nasty pitches and gets the out. Does he leave Coke in to start the next inning? Of course not. Instead, he goes with Veras. I'm sure some equation told him this was the right thing to do, but why would you yet again yank a guy who is showing you he has good stuff that day for someone else? Of course it backfired and the Yanks gave up the lead because Veras couldn't have been worse.
Then, today, in a laugher, let me ask two questions: how do you put yourself in a position where you have to put Posada at first in a laugher because you don't have any more position players to throw out there? Girardi pulled Jeter in the fourth but has left Posada out there to play an unknown position. Who is more likely to get hurt, Jeter playing his normal position or Posada playing out of position? Then, in the seventh, Girardi sent Matsui up to pinch hit in a 20-4 game. Why? The only things that can happen in that scenario are all bad. And what happened? He got hit in the knee. Wonderful.
Let me just say.........I am not sold on Joe Girardi at all.
*The worst sign of the season would be if the Yanks didn't come out and just pummel Pavano tomorrow. I mean, if he went out there and pitched a gem I would have no confidence in this team going forward. After a day like this, where each and every one of them should be utterly embarrassed, they have to come out and take their pound of flesh.
There is no pitcher that deserves an a** beating more than Pavano, is there?
*I HATE joining the overreaction crowd that proclaims the seasom done after less than 20 games of a 162 game schedule has been played, but I do think the warning bells have to be sounded now in regards to Chien Mien Wang. This isn't early season struggles here folks. This is just non-competitive. Joba struggled yesterday. Wang simply doesn't look like he belongs on the mound.
I have literally no evidence to back up what I am about to say, but something physically has to be wrong with the man. His velocity has been nonexistent this season (that patented 94 MPH sinker is barely getting over 90 now), his pitches have little bite to them, and everything is up. How could this possibly be simple mechanics? Seriously, no pitcher suffers through mechanics issues where they simply can't get someone out. Joba had mechanics issues yesterday, Burnett had mechanics issues his first game of the season, and because they have great stuff they were able to record outs and give a presentable outing. This is about stuff, as in Wang has none right now. Nothing is working, and I don't care what anyone says about his "side work," there is something more than a crisis of confidence going on here. Maybe his foot hasn't healed and he can't push over. Maybe something is wrong with his arm and he isn't telling anyone. But, at this point, something needs to be done.
What? I have no idea. I don't think you can officially send Wang down to the minors at this point. I'm sure he isn't eligible for that kinda move. Do you "find" an injury, even if none appears real, to send him out to get right? Do you skip him a start? Do you throw him out there a couple of more times and hope things turn around? I'm not sure how many more of these the team can take. Wang has officially lost 3 of the 6 total games the Yankees this year, and none of them have been competitive. I don't know what has to be done, but at this point I think more than weekends with Dave Eiland are needed.
*I am shocked right field is playing so short. I mean, SHOCKED and a little disturbed. I like offense as much as the next guy, but the Yanks went out and spent the equivalent of the GDP on pitching to make sure their success isn't predicated on winning 8-7 games. I don't want this to be an American League ball park version of Colorado or Houston. Hopefully things calm down a little bit, but some of the homers today were really a joke. Even Tex knew he didn't get all of that one when he got back to the dugout. You could see him almost grimace, as if to say 'wow.'
*Another disturbing aspect of the new stadium is the church-atmosphere. Today was the first time it sounded a little like the old Stadium when the fans were booing Wang off the mound. Besides that, it has sounded like a crowd that has almost been interrupted by a baseball game at certain points in time. And there is nothing worse than seeing sooooo many empty seats behind homeplate and up the foul lines. Even when the place is packed, it looks like someone bought the place out. Just not a good look.
*I am willing to give everyone the benefit of the doubt, but I still do not get Joe Girardi as a manager. In the Kansas City game where the bullpen blew the lead for Joba, Girardi brought Marte in to handle two lefties. His stuff was obviously on, he got two quick outs, he had a one run lead, and Billy Butler was coming to the plate. Not only that, but afterwards there were two lefties coming up after Butler. Does Girardi leave Marte in? Nope. Here comes Veras, who gives up a walk. Then, he brings in Coke, who gives up the lead. HUH??????????? Doesn't make any sense. The reasoning given after the game is "Billy Butler kills lefties." Couple of things wrong with this logic. First, we're talking about Billy Butler, not Mickey Mantle. Butler is playing for Kansas City for a reason. If you're a good pitcher you should be able to get Billy Butler out. However, if for some reason you decide you don't want to let Marte pitch to Butler, try and let him get himself out, give him nothing to hit, and then go after the lefties. Marte was ON. Why give that up? Horrid.
Second, in the first game at the Stadium, Joe pulls Sabathia, brings in Edwar Ramirez for some reason, then brings in Phil Coke, who throw three nasty pitches and gets the out. Does he leave Coke in to start the next inning? Of course not. Instead, he goes with Veras. I'm sure some equation told him this was the right thing to do, but why would you yet again yank a guy who is showing you he has good stuff that day for someone else? Of course it backfired and the Yanks gave up the lead because Veras couldn't have been worse.
Then, today, in a laugher, let me ask two questions: how do you put yourself in a position where you have to put Posada at first in a laugher because you don't have any more position players to throw out there? Girardi pulled Jeter in the fourth but has left Posada out there to play an unknown position. Who is more likely to get hurt, Jeter playing his normal position or Posada playing out of position? Then, in the seventh, Girardi sent Matsui up to pinch hit in a 20-4 game. Why? The only things that can happen in that scenario are all bad. And what happened? He got hit in the knee. Wonderful.
Let me just say.........I am not sold on Joe Girardi at all.
*The worst sign of the season would be if the Yanks didn't come out and just pummel Pavano tomorrow. I mean, if he went out there and pitched a gem I would have no confidence in this team going forward. After a day like this, where each and every one of them should be utterly embarrassed, they have to come out and take their pound of flesh.
There is no pitcher that deserves an a** beating more than Pavano, is there?
Sunday, April 5
Now that that's done with, time to get on to baseball........
I had been dedicated to keeping this blog updated on a more consistent basis in the hope that, eventually, it would turn into a must-stop sports site for Yankee enthusiasts and those who just love to read about baseball (mostly), basketball, football, and the occassional curling column (it takes an athlete to sweep ice my friends, and don't you forget it).
But work (hey, not complaining, but) has been a little overwhelming and the NCAA Tournament has essentially taken over my life. As a Uconn fan, the last three weekends have been dominated by March Madness. Thanks to Michigan State and their home-game win last night against Uconn (which, according to every news outlet, now means that unemployed workers in the state of Michigan can immediately go back to work. That's right, Detroit, start turning out those cars again at a fevered pitch. Tom Izzo and Goran Suton have saved the day), I can leave basketball aside for the next 5 or so months and begin to concentrate on baseball. Opening Day, here we are.
So, without further ado, let me give you my 2009 MLB Season Preview. If you have followed this blog at all, you know my predictions are rarely wrong. If you doubt that, just take my word for it and DO NOT, under any circumstances, check my archived columns. Those were, um, just for fun. Nothing to see there, folks. Nothing at all.
Before I get to the preview, let me first opine about a few issues that have been bugging me. First, this Sunday night opener. I guess this now falls under the category of the Thursday night opener for the NFL, but why did we need to change something that wasn't broken? What, exactly, was wrong with beginning the season on Monday, and having 50 games to choose from throughout the course of the day?
When I had a job that actually allowed me to take some time off, my two favorite "I'm not feeling well" sports days to call in were the beginning of the NCAA Tourney and opening day. Is there anything better than sitting on your couch, making a little lunch, waiting for 1 p.m. to roll around, and then having baseball to watch for 10 straight hours? I loved it.
But now, we start the season at all weird times. If Japan bats its eyes at MLB, we start the season on a Thursday the week before everyone else plays meaningful baseball games. I'm sure if Moscow threw some money Bud Selig's way, the season would open in some former Gulag on March 10th, just to accomodate our comrade friends all in the name of "promoting the game." In that sense, the Sunday nighter isn't all that bad, but it seems forced to me and always has. Let the season start ON OPENING DAY!!!!! How hard is this, really?
Second, I know I touched on this in a previous post, but PLEASE YES Network, for next year, revamp your spring training coverage. You have the personnel down there in Florida already. Throw a few more games on in March to make us all feel a little better as we slowly pull ourselves out of a tough New England winter. Have some interviews with the players in-game. Invite a few columnists into the booth to preview the season. Make the telecasts a little lighter (there's no reason to be broadcasting a spring game on March 12 like it is a pennant-deciding showdown between the Yanks-Sox in September). In essence, tune into the NESN spring telecats and just copy what they do.
Okay, on to the ultimate, premiere, put it in the bank predictions:
NL West:
LA Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
I don't think there is any question that the Dodgers are the class of this division and, quite honestly, I just can't see anyone else battling them for a spot in October baseball. Little Blue's lineup was solid even before Manny decided to come back to Holloywood in the off season, with guys like James Looney, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier all poised to break out as big-time stars this year and Rafael Furcal coming in as one of the steals of the winter. With Ramirez's bat in the lineup, the Dodgers add superstar talent to an already balanced and formidable lineup.
A lot of peple have questioned the pitching, but I believe Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley as two top, top yung pitchers and belive that Randy Wolf can be a very competent third starter for the team. Plus, you don't need a stacked ball club, top to bottom, to win in this division.
Who will be the closest competitor? I think this is pretty much an open competition between everyone else not named the San Diego Padres. I give the edge to the Giants because, even though they don't have the hitting, their pitching is probably the best in the National League, top to bottom. There are going to be stretches where this team doesn't need to score more than 3 runs a game for a week because the rotation of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Barry Zito, and Randy Johnson are all on at the same time. Plus, Pablo Sandoval could very well be a star in the making, and if that's the case he would provide the type of bat the Giants haven't had in a long, long time.
Some people are high on the Diamondbacks, with their young talent and their two top pitchers (Brandon Webb and Dan Haren), but I have been burnt on the D-Backs a couple of years in a row and I refuse to buy into the "This is the year Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, Juston Upton, and Chad Tracy break out." Please! How many positions will Conor Jackson have to try before everyone figures out he is simply an average player at best? And Chad Tracy? Remember when he was going to be one of the best third basemen in the world? Now he's at first and, ummm, not so good. If Arizona gets those break out years, then they have the horses to compete with the Dodgers, but my gut says it will be the same old same old from this team.
Another group likes the Rockies. I have even seen some people pick them to win the division. And here I thought cocaine was illegal. Evidently habitual drug use is acceptable amongst some baseball prognosticators. I'm looking at this team and wondering how, exactly, anyone could like them? Troy Tulowitzxvzr-whatever is a terrific player and Garret Atkins still has some talent in his body, even though the trend has been dramatically downward over the last few years. Todd Helton? Who knows what he has left, but even at a normal Helton year it won't be enough to make up for a pitching staff anchored by the emminently overrated Aaron Cook (Mr. One Year Wonder) and talented but unproven Jason Marquis. They still play in Colorado, right?
As far as the Padres, there is really only two questions for them this season; when will they trade Jake Peavy and might they trade Adrian Gonzalez? After that, there isn't a lot of intrigue here.
NL Central:
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinatti Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates
Could this be the year for the Cubbies? If Karma wasn't going to let up on Chicago last year, why should this year be any different? Let's face it, God already made one concession and let the Red Sox hoist a championship banner this decade (two in fact. come on God, you're better than that), but I'm not sure the Cubs are next in line.
But they certainly have enough to not only win this division but also win the NL. We know the lineup is great, even if Soriano refuses to take a rightful position in the middle of the order, but when you combine the power of Derek Lee (destined to have a comeback year), Aramis Ramirez, and newly acquired Milton Bradley, with the guttyness of players like Ryan Theriolt and Geovany Soto, and you have yourself one nice one through nine. Like all god teams, however, the Cubbies fate will be sealed by their pitching and it is one very interesting pitching staff. There is greatness built into this starting five, but there is also the potential for disaster. Carlos Zambrano is as talented as any pitcher in the game, but he is also a hot head who can implode on the mound or in the dugout. Rich Harden? Again, electric stuff but injuries have always been his achilles heel. Ryan Dempster last year was the best starter on the Cubbies staff but that might have been a one-year deal. Ted Lilly is a solid three who is good for double-digit wins each year, and Sean Marshall is a nice young pitcher. In the pen, the Cubs will have to hope that Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg can replace Kerry Wood, but the team should score enough runs to make a somewhat shaky bullpen obsolete.
There is potential for greatness in this team, and over 162 they should be better than anyone in the division, but with guys like Soriano, Bradley, and Zambrano, interacting with the warm and cuddily Lou Pinella for 6 months, there are definitely some potential for fireworks.
After that, I like the Cardinals because of their great lineup (Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, and Chris Duncan) and two top pitchers (Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright). Last year was a down year and talented teams rarely have two of those in a row. I think the Cards have an outside chance of challenging the Cubs for the division but, most likely, I see them in the wild card picture all season long.
The surprise team, in my mind, will be the Reds in this division. First off, it's about time this team has a big year. The Reds have been around forever and have some of the best history in the sport. Second, they dropped the albatross that was Ken Griffey Jr. Don't get me wrong, I love The Kid and I think the fact that so many of his peers were obviously juiced while racking up records makes his 600+ dingers even that much more impressive, but he could not have been worse luck for his hometown ballclub. It was like sticking the team with a smallpox virus for a decade, they just never recovered. Now, he is gone, and the Reds have built themselves a very nice team with a lot of talented young players who showed potential last year and should show results this year. There is Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, two budding stars who will put up big numbers. There is Brandon Phillips, who is just about to come into his own, and then the rotation is anchored by youngsters like Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto. With a healthy Aaron Harang now going out there every five days, the Reds have what they have been lacking for years -pitching depth. The Reds will be there all season long.
Then, you have the bottom of the order. Milwaukee still has their top young position players in Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and JJ Hardy, but losin CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets in one year is too much to make up for. Unless talented Yovani Gallardo pitches like Sandy Koufax, and pitches 4 out of every 7 days, it promises to be a high team ERA year for the Brew Crew. The Astros have offense, as always, in Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence, and the still very serviceable Miguel Tejada and Ivan Rodriguez, but after Roy Oswalt takes his turn in the rotation, wh exactly will the Stros turn to in order to get wins? Great question.
The Pirates? I'm sorry, Nate McClouth isn't enough to get me excited about the Bucs. Talk to me in September. Maybe they pass the Stros to get out of last place, but at that point who cares. They are still Pittsburgh.
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
Get ready for a wild ride in this division. The Phillies are the world champions and, to me, that still counts for something. Their lineup is stacked and clutch, with three of the best big-game players in the sport (Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard) solidfying a deep lineup, especially with the addition of underrated Raul Ibanez. However, I think the difference will be the Phils pitching. We all know about Cole Hamels. If the lefty is healthy, he'll be his usual self. But what think separates the Phils from the pack this year is Brett Myers. This kid finally began to show his abilities last year at the most opportune time (playoffs) and there is every indication that he can build on that playoff run. Joe Blanton is a good third starter, especially in the NL, and Jaime Moyer simply refuses to die. Yes, having Chan Ho Park as your fifth starter is not a good omen, but the other four should be solid enough to hand the ball to Ryan Madsen and Brad Lidge with a lead more times than not.
The Phillies won't run away with the division because, well, they're the Phillies, but, in the end, knowing how to win counts for a lot in a tight race.
Conversely, all the Mets know how to do is lose the close race. Why is that gonna change this year? Law of averages? Sorry, I don't put much stock in believing "it can't happen again." I think it can. Plus, there are a lot of question marks on this team. Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran matchup nicely with the Phillies big three, and Carlos Delgado proved he has some real life left in the bat in the second half of last year (anyone feel like taking a blood test? Carlos? Carlos?). I also like Daniel Murphy. He seems like a player. Good hitter, somewhat of a knack for coming through in big spots, and the ability to play the infield and the outfield. But it still promises to be a lean year in offensive output from second base, catcher, and even right field where Ryan Church seems likely to get ousted from his perch by the always loveable Gary Sheffield. (when a team signs Sheffield, after his Lord of the Rings-esque journey through baseball over his career, do they honestly sit there and think "this time, it will be different."? The Tigers literally payed the man $14 million to leave. Doesn't that tell you something? If someone walked in for a job interview and said "Yes, my former employer paid me two years salary as long as I promised never to come back," would you hire them?)
My biggest problem with the Mets, however, is the pitching. With all the fanfare over the Mets solidifying their pen with K-Rod and JJ Putz, people seemed to forget that starters are what make and break a season. Yes, they have the best in baseball in Johan Santana, but do you believe other teams come into a series with the Mets fearing John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey, and Livan Hernandez? I sure as hell wouldn't. Maine is simply a serviceable pitcher, Perez is a disaster waiting to happen, and Hernandez hasn't been good since Bill Clinton was treating the oval office like Lindsay Lohan's bedroom. Pelfrey is the only one who has plus stuff but he also has some injury issues that might keep him from becoming that second punch behind Santana.
The only way a new bullpen means something is if you have the starters to get them a lead. I am not convinced the Mets have the horses to do that enough.
Plus, both New York and Philly have two much-improved teams riding up their leg this season. I love the Marlins, from superstar Hanley Ramirez, to Dan Uggla, to Jeremy Hermida, to stud youngster Cameron Maybin, and their pitching, with a healed Josh Johnson and stud youngsters Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez, could make the Marlins this year's Rays. The Braves, on the other hand, have a nice mix of young and old, with Chipper Jones and Garret Anderson joining Jeff Francouer, Casey Kotchman, Brian McCann, and Kelly Johnson to make one solid lineup. But what I love about the Braves is their pitching, solidified by Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez. Jair Jurriens is a rising star and Kenshin Kawakami is as solid as they come.
The Marlins and/or the Braves could end up knocking one of the top two (Philly or New York) off by the end of the season.
The Nationals? Please. I mean, Please!! You need a few more years removed from the Jim Bowden era to have any chance to compete.
Teams I don't love but should: The New York Mets, The Arizona Diamondbacks.
Teams I should hate but don't: Florida Marlins, Cincinnatti Reds.
Best players: Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez
Best pitchers: Johan Santana, Carlos Zambrano, Clayton Kershaw
AL West:
Oakland Athletics
LA Angels
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
I have nothing but the utmost respect for Mike Scosia and the Angels, but I just get the sense that this is the year they fall off the wagon. First, they lost Mark Teixeira and replaced him with Bobby Abreu. That's a downgrade folks, pure and simple. Second, Vlady isn't getting any younger and while he has Gary Sheffield blood in him (he'll be able to hit when he is 60) you wonder how long the legs will hold up to playing the outfield every day. My guess is not long. Torii Hunter is still a top player and love the potential that still resides in Howie Kendrick, but that offense is, yet again, a bat or two from really being formidable.
The dirty little secret, however, is that the Angels pitching just isn't up to snuff compared to other years. John Lackey starts the year on the DL and who knows how effective he will be when he comes back. Jared Weaver has the stuff t be a top pitcher, but is he ready to carry the load this season as the team's ace? I don't think so. Nick Adenhart comes out of the spring in the five man rotation, and could be a huge boost for the team (he is as talented as anyon on the roster) but the loss of Jon Garland is bigger than many are admitting. He was a solid winner for this team each year.
Also, without K-Rod, the bullpen becomes suspect. Brian Fuentes is simply a thief in my opinion (and there aint nothing wrong with that). The guy is overrated as they come, but he got a nice contract out of the desperate Angels after K-Rod left for Queens and was given the closer role. Fans in Anaheim are not going to be pleased with the replacement.
Perhaps sensing the opportunity the A's jumped out there and made some big acquisitions. The offense has been more than bolstered by Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, and Orlando Cabrera, and a healthy Eric Chavez seems poised for a big year. Throw in some consumate professionals like Travis Buck and Mark Ellis and what was a laughable one through nine last year is suddenly powerful and balanced. What makes this pick such a gamble is that there are literally no guarantees when it comes to this teams pitching. They have three (sound familiar) top-caliber rookie pitchers in Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, and Dana Eveland (being sticklers for tradition, they are two lefties and one righty. Did they simply clone Mulder, Zito, and Hudson?) If those guys are as good as their talent dictates, and Oakland can repeat the Big Three years, then I think Oakland is the class of the division. However, they are rookies. How will they stand up to an entire season? Will there be more low moments than high moments? Can lightening really strike twice?
I am betting yes, but it is a big bet. This is a pick that could really look bad (what's new) at the end of the year.
After that, I like Texas as a potential sleeper team in this division. How can you not love this lineup? Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, and Chris Davis are all bit-time offensive players. Hank Blalock insists that he healthy and, if he is, there is no better veteran bat you can have in a lineup, and I am still a big believer in Jarod Saltalamacchia, who could join in the offensive fun. As always, the pitching staff will be the problem, but I think Brandon McCarthy and Matt Harrison can become the top pitchers rather than the bottom two in this rotation, moving mediocre hurlers like Kevin Millwood, Vincent Padilla, and Kris Benson to the back end of the rotation, where they belong. If McCarthy and Harrison make that leap, it will give this team some solid pitching to go with what promises to be a HUGE offensive club. They might not have enough to challenge for a playoff spot, but it should be a much better year in Arlington than it has been in recent years. And, with Oakland pitching such a question mark and the Angels obviously down, it wouldn't take much of an improvement for the Rangers to be challengers.
Pulling up the rear, the Seattle Mariners. Honestly, in my gut, I have a feeling they could be much better than last year (which wouldn't be too hard). I have a feeling that Griffey's return could be beneficial for Seattle the way his departure will help the Reds. Ichiro will be back in the lineup soon after the beginning of the season and should be his normal self, and Adrian Beltre still has life left in his bat. King Felix is, well, as good as it gets. Does Erik Bedard have anything left that resembles the top-quality pitcher he was two years ago? Perhaps.
But the Mariners were such a huge disappointment last year, and made all of us look so stupid, I can't in good conscious pick them to do anything but pile up more high draft picks. Plus, Russell Brayan is on this team. Can any club paying Branyan to pay for money expect to win? Answer - NO!!!!
AL Central:
Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Can anyone figure this division out? Not me. I picked the Tigers last year and, what they hell, I'm gonna do it again. They a great lineup and the potential for the best pitching staff in the division. Justin Verlander, Armando Gallaraga, and Edwin Jackson can all be big winners this year in my mind and, if Fernando Rodney can close out games, I think the Tigers can separate themselves in the end. Seriously, this team still has Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, and Placido Polanco mashing the ball, with speedy Curtis Granderson getting on base and scoring runs. And I honestly believe it is addition by subtraction with Sheffield. But this is the same team that choked it up last year, so how much of a lock are they?
Let me say this: I am confident in only one thing in this division and that is the Royals will NOT win in the end. I could easily see Minnesota, with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau continuing to lead an underrated offensive that might see Delmon Young finally come into his own (along with the addition of Joe Crede) and if Francisco Liriano returns to form quickly to join Scott Baker as top-quaility performers, than the Twins are as good as anyone in the central. Same thing for the Indians, who probably have the best overall lineup, especially if Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez join the fun (don't sleep on how important Mark deRosa will be for that team. He is the perfect grinder, big-game player to solidify all those still-younger sluggers. And Grady Sizemore might be your MVP at the end of this year. Joining that 40-40 club isn't out of the relam of possibility). My problem with the Indians is the pitching. Is Cliff Lee winning another Cy Young? Doubtful. Is Carl Pavano winning a game? There's a better chance of me and Jennifer Aniston starring in a romantic comedy together than that happening. And that bullpen is just brutal. If they can get to Kerry Wood, things would be okay, but there is little chance of that happening with the Rafael squared (Perez and Bentacourt) setting the table. Of course, if you ask Mike Francesa, he would suggest moving Fausto Carmona to the set-up role and all would be right with the world.
The White Sox won the division last year and, for the life of me, I have no idea how. I just think this team is aging worse than Bob Dylan right now. I do like Gavin Floyd and John Denks, and for some reason I am still a believer in Mark Buerhle, but I could see the likes of Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, and Paul Konerko all developing arthritis at the same time this season. I have a feeling they are on the same path the Tigers were on last year.
But, in truth, as I said, I wouldn't be shocked if any one of these teams, except the Royals, pulled out the division. They are all incredibly flawed yet good enough to compete.
AL East:
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
Come on, did you expect anything else? I am a Yankee fan, and this is the Yankees year. They have the best pitching in the league and, by the end of the year, AJ Burnett might be the best of the bunch. Brian Bruney and Damaso Marte should be able to bridge the gap to Mariano Rivera, who hasn't lost anything just yet, and young armed Phil Coke and soon-to-be in the bullpen Mark Melacon could provide the type of hard throwers that could make the bullpen a real plus. In any given series, the Yankees should have the pitching edge on most nights, especially if Chien Mien Wang returns to his winning ways and Joba Chamberlain progresses throughout the year.
The offense will be somewhat hampered early on without A-Rod, but Teixeira should live up to his contract, Posada has looked terrific swinging the bat in the spring, Damon and Jeter should have normal, if not better, years (Damon is on a walk year and Jeter should be healthier than last season, when he struggled with a hand injury). I also LOVE Cano to step up and be a big-time player, and the lineup will now feature grinders like Brett Gardner, Xavier Nady, and Nick Swisher who, mark my words, will get essentially full-time play this season (I think Matsui might be on his last legs).
For the first time in a long time, I think this lineup is balanced and injected with needed youth and excitement.
I originally picked the Rays third, believing that, of the three big teams, they were the most likely to fall back, but I just love their pitching too much, and have too much respect for players like Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, and BJ Upton to believe they will slip all that much. Plus, David Price is coming eventually and returning Troy Percival to the lineup I believe can be a big plus for this team.
They are the most athletic club in baseball and put more pressure on you than anyone else. I think they fall off a bit, but not much.
So, yes Nation, I am picking the Sox to finish out of the running. Why? First, I loath your team. I mean LOATH!!!! I don't even find that stupid video game commercial with Dustin Pedoria funny. Any site of that balding, 5 foot freak just ruins my day. But, aside from my hatred, I legitimately think the Sox have more questions this year than perhaps any other year. How healthy are David Ortiz and Mike Lowell? How much will they miss Manny? Can Pedroia and Youkillis repeat career years? Is Jeb Lowrie the answer at short stop?
Those are all significant question marks, but to me the biggest thing is the pitching. Peter Gammons has his head so far up his ass he actually believes that the addition of Brad Penny and John Smoltz gives the team depth. Maybe Pete has paid a lot of attention these last few years but Penny hasn't been good for a long time and Smoltz, coming off an injury, is ANCIENT, to the point where the Braves let him go at the expense f a HUGE public relations backlash. Oh, and did mention neither one of these guys has pitched in the AL, let alone the AL East? Yeah, they are definitely not going to implode.
Jsh Beckett, when he is healthy, is as good as anyone, and Jon Lester showed signs of being a top pitcher last season. Dice-K is a walking inigma, always on the high-wire but always getting to the other side. But what happens in the walks and the hard liners start to bite Dice-K rather than simply nip as they have in the past? Or what if there is an injury and you have to rely on Clay Bucholtz to be a major contributor? Tim Wakefield if a 5 ERA waiting to happen and, after that there isn't much else of a sure thing.
Paplebon(er) is great in the ninth, but Okajima showed signs of slowing down last year after his great rookie season and Justin Masterson is still raw. When stacked up, I just don't think the pitching is on the same level as the Yanks and the Rays.
After the Sox, the Jays and the Orioles both believe they have what it takes to put a scare into teams, but I don't see it. Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the AL and probably on par with Santana, but does David Purcey put a scare into anyone? That's what I thought. And the Orioles top pitcher is Jeremy Guthrie. Need I say more.
Neither team is terrible, and both make you pitch because they can score runs (Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are especially formidable in the middle of the O's lineup) but both teams are a cut below the big three.
Teams I should love but don't - Red Sox, Angels, White Sox
Teams I should hate but don't - Tigers, A's, Rangers
Best Players - Robinson Cano, Carlos Pena, Grady Sizemore
Best Pitchers - AJ Burnett, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez
But work (hey, not complaining, but) has been a little overwhelming and the NCAA Tournament has essentially taken over my life. As a Uconn fan, the last three weekends have been dominated by March Madness. Thanks to Michigan State and their home-game win last night against Uconn (which, according to every news outlet, now means that unemployed workers in the state of Michigan can immediately go back to work. That's right, Detroit, start turning out those cars again at a fevered pitch. Tom Izzo and Goran Suton have saved the day), I can leave basketball aside for the next 5 or so months and begin to concentrate on baseball. Opening Day, here we are.
So, without further ado, let me give you my 2009 MLB Season Preview. If you have followed this blog at all, you know my predictions are rarely wrong. If you doubt that, just take my word for it and DO NOT, under any circumstances, check my archived columns. Those were, um, just for fun. Nothing to see there, folks. Nothing at all.
Before I get to the preview, let me first opine about a few issues that have been bugging me. First, this Sunday night opener. I guess this now falls under the category of the Thursday night opener for the NFL, but why did we need to change something that wasn't broken? What, exactly, was wrong with beginning the season on Monday, and having 50 games to choose from throughout the course of the day?
When I had a job that actually allowed me to take some time off, my two favorite "I'm not feeling well" sports days to call in were the beginning of the NCAA Tourney and opening day. Is there anything better than sitting on your couch, making a little lunch, waiting for 1 p.m. to roll around, and then having baseball to watch for 10 straight hours? I loved it.
But now, we start the season at all weird times. If Japan bats its eyes at MLB, we start the season on a Thursday the week before everyone else plays meaningful baseball games. I'm sure if Moscow threw some money Bud Selig's way, the season would open in some former Gulag on March 10th, just to accomodate our comrade friends all in the name of "promoting the game." In that sense, the Sunday nighter isn't all that bad, but it seems forced to me and always has. Let the season start ON OPENING DAY!!!!! How hard is this, really?
Second, I know I touched on this in a previous post, but PLEASE YES Network, for next year, revamp your spring training coverage. You have the personnel down there in Florida already. Throw a few more games on in March to make us all feel a little better as we slowly pull ourselves out of a tough New England winter. Have some interviews with the players in-game. Invite a few columnists into the booth to preview the season. Make the telecasts a little lighter (there's no reason to be broadcasting a spring game on March 12 like it is a pennant-deciding showdown between the Yanks-Sox in September). In essence, tune into the NESN spring telecats and just copy what they do.
Okay, on to the ultimate, premiere, put it in the bank predictions:
NL West:
LA Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
I don't think there is any question that the Dodgers are the class of this division and, quite honestly, I just can't see anyone else battling them for a spot in October baseball. Little Blue's lineup was solid even before Manny decided to come back to Holloywood in the off season, with guys like James Looney, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier all poised to break out as big-time stars this year and Rafael Furcal coming in as one of the steals of the winter. With Ramirez's bat in the lineup, the Dodgers add superstar talent to an already balanced and formidable lineup.
A lot of peple have questioned the pitching, but I believe Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley as two top, top yung pitchers and belive that Randy Wolf can be a very competent third starter for the team. Plus, you don't need a stacked ball club, top to bottom, to win in this division.
Who will be the closest competitor? I think this is pretty much an open competition between everyone else not named the San Diego Padres. I give the edge to the Giants because, even though they don't have the hitting, their pitching is probably the best in the National League, top to bottom. There are going to be stretches where this team doesn't need to score more than 3 runs a game for a week because the rotation of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Barry Zito, and Randy Johnson are all on at the same time. Plus, Pablo Sandoval could very well be a star in the making, and if that's the case he would provide the type of bat the Giants haven't had in a long, long time.
Some people are high on the Diamondbacks, with their young talent and their two top pitchers (Brandon Webb and Dan Haren), but I have been burnt on the D-Backs a couple of years in a row and I refuse to buy into the "This is the year Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, Juston Upton, and Chad Tracy break out." Please! How many positions will Conor Jackson have to try before everyone figures out he is simply an average player at best? And Chad Tracy? Remember when he was going to be one of the best third basemen in the world? Now he's at first and, ummm, not so good. If Arizona gets those break out years, then they have the horses to compete with the Dodgers, but my gut says it will be the same old same old from this team.
Another group likes the Rockies. I have even seen some people pick them to win the division. And here I thought cocaine was illegal. Evidently habitual drug use is acceptable amongst some baseball prognosticators. I'm looking at this team and wondering how, exactly, anyone could like them? Troy Tulowitzxvzr-whatever is a terrific player and Garret Atkins still has some talent in his body, even though the trend has been dramatically downward over the last few years. Todd Helton? Who knows what he has left, but even at a normal Helton year it won't be enough to make up for a pitching staff anchored by the emminently overrated Aaron Cook (Mr. One Year Wonder) and talented but unproven Jason Marquis. They still play in Colorado, right?
As far as the Padres, there is really only two questions for them this season; when will they trade Jake Peavy and might they trade Adrian Gonzalez? After that, there isn't a lot of intrigue here.
NL Central:
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinatti Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates
Could this be the year for the Cubbies? If Karma wasn't going to let up on Chicago last year, why should this year be any different? Let's face it, God already made one concession and let the Red Sox hoist a championship banner this decade (two in fact. come on God, you're better than that), but I'm not sure the Cubs are next in line.
But they certainly have enough to not only win this division but also win the NL. We know the lineup is great, even if Soriano refuses to take a rightful position in the middle of the order, but when you combine the power of Derek Lee (destined to have a comeback year), Aramis Ramirez, and newly acquired Milton Bradley, with the guttyness of players like Ryan Theriolt and Geovany Soto, and you have yourself one nice one through nine. Like all god teams, however, the Cubbies fate will be sealed by their pitching and it is one very interesting pitching staff. There is greatness built into this starting five, but there is also the potential for disaster. Carlos Zambrano is as talented as any pitcher in the game, but he is also a hot head who can implode on the mound or in the dugout. Rich Harden? Again, electric stuff but injuries have always been his achilles heel. Ryan Dempster last year was the best starter on the Cubbies staff but that might have been a one-year deal. Ted Lilly is a solid three who is good for double-digit wins each year, and Sean Marshall is a nice young pitcher. In the pen, the Cubs will have to hope that Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg can replace Kerry Wood, but the team should score enough runs to make a somewhat shaky bullpen obsolete.
There is potential for greatness in this team, and over 162 they should be better than anyone in the division, but with guys like Soriano, Bradley, and Zambrano, interacting with the warm and cuddily Lou Pinella for 6 months, there are definitely some potential for fireworks.
After that, I like the Cardinals because of their great lineup (Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, and Chris Duncan) and two top pitchers (Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright). Last year was a down year and talented teams rarely have two of those in a row. I think the Cards have an outside chance of challenging the Cubs for the division but, most likely, I see them in the wild card picture all season long.
The surprise team, in my mind, will be the Reds in this division. First off, it's about time this team has a big year. The Reds have been around forever and have some of the best history in the sport. Second, they dropped the albatross that was Ken Griffey Jr. Don't get me wrong, I love The Kid and I think the fact that so many of his peers were obviously juiced while racking up records makes his 600+ dingers even that much more impressive, but he could not have been worse luck for his hometown ballclub. It was like sticking the team with a smallpox virus for a decade, they just never recovered. Now, he is gone, and the Reds have built themselves a very nice team with a lot of talented young players who showed potential last year and should show results this year. There is Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, two budding stars who will put up big numbers. There is Brandon Phillips, who is just about to come into his own, and then the rotation is anchored by youngsters like Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto. With a healthy Aaron Harang now going out there every five days, the Reds have what they have been lacking for years -pitching depth. The Reds will be there all season long.
Then, you have the bottom of the order. Milwaukee still has their top young position players in Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and JJ Hardy, but losin CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets in one year is too much to make up for. Unless talented Yovani Gallardo pitches like Sandy Koufax, and pitches 4 out of every 7 days, it promises to be a high team ERA year for the Brew Crew. The Astros have offense, as always, in Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence, and the still very serviceable Miguel Tejada and Ivan Rodriguez, but after Roy Oswalt takes his turn in the rotation, wh exactly will the Stros turn to in order to get wins? Great question.
The Pirates? I'm sorry, Nate McClouth isn't enough to get me excited about the Bucs. Talk to me in September. Maybe they pass the Stros to get out of last place, but at that point who cares. They are still Pittsburgh.
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
Get ready for a wild ride in this division. The Phillies are the world champions and, to me, that still counts for something. Their lineup is stacked and clutch, with three of the best big-game players in the sport (Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard) solidfying a deep lineup, especially with the addition of underrated Raul Ibanez. However, I think the difference will be the Phils pitching. We all know about Cole Hamels. If the lefty is healthy, he'll be his usual self. But what think separates the Phils from the pack this year is Brett Myers. This kid finally began to show his abilities last year at the most opportune time (playoffs) and there is every indication that he can build on that playoff run. Joe Blanton is a good third starter, especially in the NL, and Jaime Moyer simply refuses to die. Yes, having Chan Ho Park as your fifth starter is not a good omen, but the other four should be solid enough to hand the ball to Ryan Madsen and Brad Lidge with a lead more times than not.
The Phillies won't run away with the division because, well, they're the Phillies, but, in the end, knowing how to win counts for a lot in a tight race.
Conversely, all the Mets know how to do is lose the close race. Why is that gonna change this year? Law of averages? Sorry, I don't put much stock in believing "it can't happen again." I think it can. Plus, there are a lot of question marks on this team. Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran matchup nicely with the Phillies big three, and Carlos Delgado proved he has some real life left in the bat in the second half of last year (anyone feel like taking a blood test? Carlos? Carlos?). I also like Daniel Murphy. He seems like a player. Good hitter, somewhat of a knack for coming through in big spots, and the ability to play the infield and the outfield. But it still promises to be a lean year in offensive output from second base, catcher, and even right field where Ryan Church seems likely to get ousted from his perch by the always loveable Gary Sheffield. (when a team signs Sheffield, after his Lord of the Rings-esque journey through baseball over his career, do they honestly sit there and think "this time, it will be different."? The Tigers literally payed the man $14 million to leave. Doesn't that tell you something? If someone walked in for a job interview and said "Yes, my former employer paid me two years salary as long as I promised never to come back," would you hire them?)
My biggest problem with the Mets, however, is the pitching. With all the fanfare over the Mets solidifying their pen with K-Rod and JJ Putz, people seemed to forget that starters are what make and break a season. Yes, they have the best in baseball in Johan Santana, but do you believe other teams come into a series with the Mets fearing John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey, and Livan Hernandez? I sure as hell wouldn't. Maine is simply a serviceable pitcher, Perez is a disaster waiting to happen, and Hernandez hasn't been good since Bill Clinton was treating the oval office like Lindsay Lohan's bedroom. Pelfrey is the only one who has plus stuff but he also has some injury issues that might keep him from becoming that second punch behind Santana.
The only way a new bullpen means something is if you have the starters to get them a lead. I am not convinced the Mets have the horses to do that enough.
Plus, both New York and Philly have two much-improved teams riding up their leg this season. I love the Marlins, from superstar Hanley Ramirez, to Dan Uggla, to Jeremy Hermida, to stud youngster Cameron Maybin, and their pitching, with a healed Josh Johnson and stud youngsters Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez, could make the Marlins this year's Rays. The Braves, on the other hand, have a nice mix of young and old, with Chipper Jones and Garret Anderson joining Jeff Francouer, Casey Kotchman, Brian McCann, and Kelly Johnson to make one solid lineup. But what I love about the Braves is their pitching, solidified by Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez. Jair Jurriens is a rising star and Kenshin Kawakami is as solid as they come.
The Marlins and/or the Braves could end up knocking one of the top two (Philly or New York) off by the end of the season.
The Nationals? Please. I mean, Please!! You need a few more years removed from the Jim Bowden era to have any chance to compete.
Teams I don't love but should: The New York Mets, The Arizona Diamondbacks.
Teams I should hate but don't: Florida Marlins, Cincinnatti Reds.
Best players: Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez
Best pitchers: Johan Santana, Carlos Zambrano, Clayton Kershaw
AL West:
Oakland Athletics
LA Angels
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
I have nothing but the utmost respect for Mike Scosia and the Angels, but I just get the sense that this is the year they fall off the wagon. First, they lost Mark Teixeira and replaced him with Bobby Abreu. That's a downgrade folks, pure and simple. Second, Vlady isn't getting any younger and while he has Gary Sheffield blood in him (he'll be able to hit when he is 60) you wonder how long the legs will hold up to playing the outfield every day. My guess is not long. Torii Hunter is still a top player and love the potential that still resides in Howie Kendrick, but that offense is, yet again, a bat or two from really being formidable.
The dirty little secret, however, is that the Angels pitching just isn't up to snuff compared to other years. John Lackey starts the year on the DL and who knows how effective he will be when he comes back. Jared Weaver has the stuff t be a top pitcher, but is he ready to carry the load this season as the team's ace? I don't think so. Nick Adenhart comes out of the spring in the five man rotation, and could be a huge boost for the team (he is as talented as anyon on the roster) but the loss of Jon Garland is bigger than many are admitting. He was a solid winner for this team each year.
Also, without K-Rod, the bullpen becomes suspect. Brian Fuentes is simply a thief in my opinion (and there aint nothing wrong with that). The guy is overrated as they come, but he got a nice contract out of the desperate Angels after K-Rod left for Queens and was given the closer role. Fans in Anaheim are not going to be pleased with the replacement.
Perhaps sensing the opportunity the A's jumped out there and made some big acquisitions. The offense has been more than bolstered by Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, and Orlando Cabrera, and a healthy Eric Chavez seems poised for a big year. Throw in some consumate professionals like Travis Buck and Mark Ellis and what was a laughable one through nine last year is suddenly powerful and balanced. What makes this pick such a gamble is that there are literally no guarantees when it comes to this teams pitching. They have three (sound familiar) top-caliber rookie pitchers in Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, and Dana Eveland (being sticklers for tradition, they are two lefties and one righty. Did they simply clone Mulder, Zito, and Hudson?) If those guys are as good as their talent dictates, and Oakland can repeat the Big Three years, then I think Oakland is the class of the division. However, they are rookies. How will they stand up to an entire season? Will there be more low moments than high moments? Can lightening really strike twice?
I am betting yes, but it is a big bet. This is a pick that could really look bad (what's new) at the end of the year.
After that, I like Texas as a potential sleeper team in this division. How can you not love this lineup? Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, and Chris Davis are all bit-time offensive players. Hank Blalock insists that he healthy and, if he is, there is no better veteran bat you can have in a lineup, and I am still a big believer in Jarod Saltalamacchia, who could join in the offensive fun. As always, the pitching staff will be the problem, but I think Brandon McCarthy and Matt Harrison can become the top pitchers rather than the bottom two in this rotation, moving mediocre hurlers like Kevin Millwood, Vincent Padilla, and Kris Benson to the back end of the rotation, where they belong. If McCarthy and Harrison make that leap, it will give this team some solid pitching to go with what promises to be a HUGE offensive club. They might not have enough to challenge for a playoff spot, but it should be a much better year in Arlington than it has been in recent years. And, with Oakland pitching such a question mark and the Angels obviously down, it wouldn't take much of an improvement for the Rangers to be challengers.
Pulling up the rear, the Seattle Mariners. Honestly, in my gut, I have a feeling they could be much better than last year (which wouldn't be too hard). I have a feeling that Griffey's return could be beneficial for Seattle the way his departure will help the Reds. Ichiro will be back in the lineup soon after the beginning of the season and should be his normal self, and Adrian Beltre still has life left in his bat. King Felix is, well, as good as it gets. Does Erik Bedard have anything left that resembles the top-quality pitcher he was two years ago? Perhaps.
But the Mariners were such a huge disappointment last year, and made all of us look so stupid, I can't in good conscious pick them to do anything but pile up more high draft picks. Plus, Russell Brayan is on this team. Can any club paying Branyan to pay for money expect to win? Answer - NO!!!!
AL Central:
Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Can anyone figure this division out? Not me. I picked the Tigers last year and, what they hell, I'm gonna do it again. They a great lineup and the potential for the best pitching staff in the division. Justin Verlander, Armando Gallaraga, and Edwin Jackson can all be big winners this year in my mind and, if Fernando Rodney can close out games, I think the Tigers can separate themselves in the end. Seriously, this team still has Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, and Placido Polanco mashing the ball, with speedy Curtis Granderson getting on base and scoring runs. And I honestly believe it is addition by subtraction with Sheffield. But this is the same team that choked it up last year, so how much of a lock are they?
Let me say this: I am confident in only one thing in this division and that is the Royals will NOT win in the end. I could easily see Minnesota, with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau continuing to lead an underrated offensive that might see Delmon Young finally come into his own (along with the addition of Joe Crede) and if Francisco Liriano returns to form quickly to join Scott Baker as top-quaility performers, than the Twins are as good as anyone in the central. Same thing for the Indians, who probably have the best overall lineup, especially if Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez join the fun (don't sleep on how important Mark deRosa will be for that team. He is the perfect grinder, big-game player to solidify all those still-younger sluggers. And Grady Sizemore might be your MVP at the end of this year. Joining that 40-40 club isn't out of the relam of possibility). My problem with the Indians is the pitching. Is Cliff Lee winning another Cy Young? Doubtful. Is Carl Pavano winning a game? There's a better chance of me and Jennifer Aniston starring in a romantic comedy together than that happening. And that bullpen is just brutal. If they can get to Kerry Wood, things would be okay, but there is little chance of that happening with the Rafael squared (Perez and Bentacourt) setting the table. Of course, if you ask Mike Francesa, he would suggest moving Fausto Carmona to the set-up role and all would be right with the world.
The White Sox won the division last year and, for the life of me, I have no idea how. I just think this team is aging worse than Bob Dylan right now. I do like Gavin Floyd and John Denks, and for some reason I am still a believer in Mark Buerhle, but I could see the likes of Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, and Paul Konerko all developing arthritis at the same time this season. I have a feeling they are on the same path the Tigers were on last year.
But, in truth, as I said, I wouldn't be shocked if any one of these teams, except the Royals, pulled out the division. They are all incredibly flawed yet good enough to compete.
AL East:
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
Come on, did you expect anything else? I am a Yankee fan, and this is the Yankees year. They have the best pitching in the league and, by the end of the year, AJ Burnett might be the best of the bunch. Brian Bruney and Damaso Marte should be able to bridge the gap to Mariano Rivera, who hasn't lost anything just yet, and young armed Phil Coke and soon-to-be in the bullpen Mark Melacon could provide the type of hard throwers that could make the bullpen a real plus. In any given series, the Yankees should have the pitching edge on most nights, especially if Chien Mien Wang returns to his winning ways and Joba Chamberlain progresses throughout the year.
The offense will be somewhat hampered early on without A-Rod, but Teixeira should live up to his contract, Posada has looked terrific swinging the bat in the spring, Damon and Jeter should have normal, if not better, years (Damon is on a walk year and Jeter should be healthier than last season, when he struggled with a hand injury). I also LOVE Cano to step up and be a big-time player, and the lineup will now feature grinders like Brett Gardner, Xavier Nady, and Nick Swisher who, mark my words, will get essentially full-time play this season (I think Matsui might be on his last legs).
For the first time in a long time, I think this lineup is balanced and injected with needed youth and excitement.
I originally picked the Rays third, believing that, of the three big teams, they were the most likely to fall back, but I just love their pitching too much, and have too much respect for players like Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, and BJ Upton to believe they will slip all that much. Plus, David Price is coming eventually and returning Troy Percival to the lineup I believe can be a big plus for this team.
They are the most athletic club in baseball and put more pressure on you than anyone else. I think they fall off a bit, but not much.
So, yes Nation, I am picking the Sox to finish out of the running. Why? First, I loath your team. I mean LOATH!!!! I don't even find that stupid video game commercial with Dustin Pedoria funny. Any site of that balding, 5 foot freak just ruins my day. But, aside from my hatred, I legitimately think the Sox have more questions this year than perhaps any other year. How healthy are David Ortiz and Mike Lowell? How much will they miss Manny? Can Pedroia and Youkillis repeat career years? Is Jeb Lowrie the answer at short stop?
Those are all significant question marks, but to me the biggest thing is the pitching. Peter Gammons has his head so far up his ass he actually believes that the addition of Brad Penny and John Smoltz gives the team depth. Maybe Pete has paid a lot of attention these last few years but Penny hasn't been good for a long time and Smoltz, coming off an injury, is ANCIENT, to the point where the Braves let him go at the expense f a HUGE public relations backlash. Oh, and did mention neither one of these guys has pitched in the AL, let alone the AL East? Yeah, they are definitely not going to implode.
Jsh Beckett, when he is healthy, is as good as anyone, and Jon Lester showed signs of being a top pitcher last season. Dice-K is a walking inigma, always on the high-wire but always getting to the other side. But what happens in the walks and the hard liners start to bite Dice-K rather than simply nip as they have in the past? Or what if there is an injury and you have to rely on Clay Bucholtz to be a major contributor? Tim Wakefield if a 5 ERA waiting to happen and, after that there isn't much else of a sure thing.
Paplebon(er) is great in the ninth, but Okajima showed signs of slowing down last year after his great rookie season and Justin Masterson is still raw. When stacked up, I just don't think the pitching is on the same level as the Yanks and the Rays.
After the Sox, the Jays and the Orioles both believe they have what it takes to put a scare into teams, but I don't see it. Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the AL and probably on par with Santana, but does David Purcey put a scare into anyone? That's what I thought. And the Orioles top pitcher is Jeremy Guthrie. Need I say more.
Neither team is terrible, and both make you pitch because they can score runs (Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are especially formidable in the middle of the O's lineup) but both teams are a cut below the big three.
Teams I should love but don't - Red Sox, Angels, White Sox
Teams I should hate but don't - Tigers, A's, Rangers
Best Players - Robinson Cano, Carlos Pena, Grady Sizemore
Best Pitchers - AJ Burnett, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez
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