I had been dedicated to keeping this blog updated on a more consistent basis in the hope that, eventually, it would turn into a must-stop sports site for Yankee enthusiasts and those who just love to read about baseball (mostly), basketball, football, and the occassional curling column (it takes an athlete to sweep ice my friends, and don't you forget it).
But work (hey, not complaining, but) has been a little overwhelming and the NCAA Tournament has essentially taken over my life. As a Uconn fan, the last three weekends have been dominated by March Madness. Thanks to Michigan State and their home-game win last night against Uconn (which, according to every news outlet, now means that unemployed workers in the state of Michigan can immediately go back to work. That's right, Detroit, start turning out those cars again at a fevered pitch. Tom Izzo and Goran Suton have saved the day), I can leave basketball aside for the next 5 or so months and begin to concentrate on baseball. Opening Day, here we are.
So, without further ado, let me give you my 2009 MLB Season Preview. If you have followed this blog at all, you know my predictions are rarely wrong. If you doubt that, just take my word for it and DO NOT, under any circumstances, check my archived columns. Those were, um, just for fun. Nothing to see there, folks. Nothing at all.
Before I get to the preview, let me first opine about a few issues that have been bugging me. First, this Sunday night opener. I guess this now falls under the category of the Thursday night opener for the NFL, but why did we need to change something that wasn't broken? What, exactly, was wrong with beginning the season on Monday, and having 50 games to choose from throughout the course of the day?
When I had a job that actually allowed me to take some time off, my two favorite "I'm not feeling well" sports days to call in were the beginning of the NCAA Tourney and opening day. Is there anything better than sitting on your couch, making a little lunch, waiting for 1 p.m. to roll around, and then having baseball to watch for 10 straight hours? I loved it.
But now, we start the season at all weird times. If Japan bats its eyes at MLB, we start the season on a Thursday the week before everyone else plays meaningful baseball games. I'm sure if Moscow threw some money Bud Selig's way, the season would open in some former Gulag on March 10th, just to accomodate our comrade friends all in the name of "promoting the game." In that sense, the Sunday nighter isn't all that bad, but it seems forced to me and always has. Let the season start ON OPENING DAY!!!!! How hard is this, really?
Second, I know I touched on this in a previous post, but PLEASE YES Network, for next year, revamp your spring training coverage. You have the personnel down there in Florida already. Throw a few more games on in March to make us all feel a little better as we slowly pull ourselves out of a tough New England winter. Have some interviews with the players in-game. Invite a few columnists into the booth to preview the season. Make the telecasts a little lighter (there's no reason to be broadcasting a spring game on March 12 like it is a pennant-deciding showdown between the Yanks-Sox in September). In essence, tune into the NESN spring telecats and just copy what they do.
Okay, on to the ultimate, premiere, put it in the bank predictions:
NL West:
LA Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
I don't think there is any question that the Dodgers are the class of this division and, quite honestly, I just can't see anyone else battling them for a spot in October baseball. Little Blue's lineup was solid even before Manny decided to come back to Holloywood in the off season, with guys like James Looney, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier all poised to break out as big-time stars this year and Rafael Furcal coming in as one of the steals of the winter. With Ramirez's bat in the lineup, the Dodgers add superstar talent to an already balanced and formidable lineup.
A lot of peple have questioned the pitching, but I believe Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley as two top, top yung pitchers and belive that Randy Wolf can be a very competent third starter for the team. Plus, you don't need a stacked ball club, top to bottom, to win in this division.
Who will be the closest competitor? I think this is pretty much an open competition between everyone else not named the San Diego Padres. I give the edge to the Giants because, even though they don't have the hitting, their pitching is probably the best in the National League, top to bottom. There are going to be stretches where this team doesn't need to score more than 3 runs a game for a week because the rotation of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Barry Zito, and Randy Johnson are all on at the same time. Plus, Pablo Sandoval could very well be a star in the making, and if that's the case he would provide the type of bat the Giants haven't had in a long, long time.
Some people are high on the Diamondbacks, with their young talent and their two top pitchers (Brandon Webb and Dan Haren), but I have been burnt on the D-Backs a couple of years in a row and I refuse to buy into the "This is the year Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, Juston Upton, and Chad Tracy break out." Please! How many positions will Conor Jackson have to try before everyone figures out he is simply an average player at best? And Chad Tracy? Remember when he was going to be one of the best third basemen in the world? Now he's at first and, ummm, not so good. If Arizona gets those break out years, then they have the horses to compete with the Dodgers, but my gut says it will be the same old same old from this team.
Another group likes the Rockies. I have even seen some people pick them to win the division. And here I thought cocaine was illegal. Evidently habitual drug use is acceptable amongst some baseball prognosticators. I'm looking at this team and wondering how, exactly, anyone could like them? Troy Tulowitzxvzr-whatever is a terrific player and Garret Atkins still has some talent in his body, even though the trend has been dramatically downward over the last few years. Todd Helton? Who knows what he has left, but even at a normal Helton year it won't be enough to make up for a pitching staff anchored by the emminently overrated Aaron Cook (Mr. One Year Wonder) and talented but unproven Jason Marquis. They still play in Colorado, right?
As far as the Padres, there is really only two questions for them this season; when will they trade Jake Peavy and might they trade Adrian Gonzalez? After that, there isn't a lot of intrigue here.
NL Central:
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinatti Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates
Could this be the year for the Cubbies? If Karma wasn't going to let up on Chicago last year, why should this year be any different? Let's face it, God already made one concession and let the Red Sox hoist a championship banner this decade (two in fact. come on God, you're better than that), but I'm not sure the Cubs are next in line.
But they certainly have enough to not only win this division but also win the NL. We know the lineup is great, even if Soriano refuses to take a rightful position in the middle of the order, but when you combine the power of Derek Lee (destined to have a comeback year), Aramis Ramirez, and newly acquired Milton Bradley, with the guttyness of players like Ryan Theriolt and Geovany Soto, and you have yourself one nice one through nine. Like all god teams, however, the Cubbies fate will be sealed by their pitching and it is one very interesting pitching staff. There is greatness built into this starting five, but there is also the potential for disaster. Carlos Zambrano is as talented as any pitcher in the game, but he is also a hot head who can implode on the mound or in the dugout. Rich Harden? Again, electric stuff but injuries have always been his achilles heel. Ryan Dempster last year was the best starter on the Cubbies staff but that might have been a one-year deal. Ted Lilly is a solid three who is good for double-digit wins each year, and Sean Marshall is a nice young pitcher. In the pen, the Cubs will have to hope that Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg can replace Kerry Wood, but the team should score enough runs to make a somewhat shaky bullpen obsolete.
There is potential for greatness in this team, and over 162 they should be better than anyone in the division, but with guys like Soriano, Bradley, and Zambrano, interacting with the warm and cuddily Lou Pinella for 6 months, there are definitely some potential for fireworks.
After that, I like the Cardinals because of their great lineup (Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, and Chris Duncan) and two top pitchers (Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright). Last year was a down year and talented teams rarely have two of those in a row. I think the Cards have an outside chance of challenging the Cubs for the division but, most likely, I see them in the wild card picture all season long.
The surprise team, in my mind, will be the Reds in this division. First off, it's about time this team has a big year. The Reds have been around forever and have some of the best history in the sport. Second, they dropped the albatross that was Ken Griffey Jr. Don't get me wrong, I love The Kid and I think the fact that so many of his peers were obviously juiced while racking up records makes his 600+ dingers even that much more impressive, but he could not have been worse luck for his hometown ballclub. It was like sticking the team with a smallpox virus for a decade, they just never recovered. Now, he is gone, and the Reds have built themselves a very nice team with a lot of talented young players who showed potential last year and should show results this year. There is Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, two budding stars who will put up big numbers. There is Brandon Phillips, who is just about to come into his own, and then the rotation is anchored by youngsters like Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto. With a healthy Aaron Harang now going out there every five days, the Reds have what they have been lacking for years -pitching depth. The Reds will be there all season long.
Then, you have the bottom of the order. Milwaukee still has their top young position players in Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and JJ Hardy, but losin CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets in one year is too much to make up for. Unless talented Yovani Gallardo pitches like Sandy Koufax, and pitches 4 out of every 7 days, it promises to be a high team ERA year for the Brew Crew. The Astros have offense, as always, in Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence, and the still very serviceable Miguel Tejada and Ivan Rodriguez, but after Roy Oswalt takes his turn in the rotation, wh exactly will the Stros turn to in order to get wins? Great question.
The Pirates? I'm sorry, Nate McClouth isn't enough to get me excited about the Bucs. Talk to me in September. Maybe they pass the Stros to get out of last place, but at that point who cares. They are still Pittsburgh.
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
Get ready for a wild ride in this division. The Phillies are the world champions and, to me, that still counts for something. Their lineup is stacked and clutch, with three of the best big-game players in the sport (Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard) solidfying a deep lineup, especially with the addition of underrated Raul Ibanez. However, I think the difference will be the Phils pitching. We all know about Cole Hamels. If the lefty is healthy, he'll be his usual self. But what think separates the Phils from the pack this year is Brett Myers. This kid finally began to show his abilities last year at the most opportune time (playoffs) and there is every indication that he can build on that playoff run. Joe Blanton is a good third starter, especially in the NL, and Jaime Moyer simply refuses to die. Yes, having Chan Ho Park as your fifth starter is not a good omen, but the other four should be solid enough to hand the ball to Ryan Madsen and Brad Lidge with a lead more times than not.
The Phillies won't run away with the division because, well, they're the Phillies, but, in the end, knowing how to win counts for a lot in a tight race.
Conversely, all the Mets know how to do is lose the close race. Why is that gonna change this year? Law of averages? Sorry, I don't put much stock in believing "it can't happen again." I think it can. Plus, there are a lot of question marks on this team. Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran matchup nicely with the Phillies big three, and Carlos Delgado proved he has some real life left in the bat in the second half of last year (anyone feel like taking a blood test? Carlos? Carlos?). I also like Daniel Murphy. He seems like a player. Good hitter, somewhat of a knack for coming through in big spots, and the ability to play the infield and the outfield. But it still promises to be a lean year in offensive output from second base, catcher, and even right field where Ryan Church seems likely to get ousted from his perch by the always loveable Gary Sheffield. (when a team signs Sheffield, after his Lord of the Rings-esque journey through baseball over his career, do they honestly sit there and think "this time, it will be different."? The Tigers literally payed the man $14 million to leave. Doesn't that tell you something? If someone walked in for a job interview and said "Yes, my former employer paid me two years salary as long as I promised never to come back," would you hire them?)
My biggest problem with the Mets, however, is the pitching. With all the fanfare over the Mets solidifying their pen with K-Rod and JJ Putz, people seemed to forget that starters are what make and break a season. Yes, they have the best in baseball in Johan Santana, but do you believe other teams come into a series with the Mets fearing John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey, and Livan Hernandez? I sure as hell wouldn't. Maine is simply a serviceable pitcher, Perez is a disaster waiting to happen, and Hernandez hasn't been good since Bill Clinton was treating the oval office like Lindsay Lohan's bedroom. Pelfrey is the only one who has plus stuff but he also has some injury issues that might keep him from becoming that second punch behind Santana.
The only way a new bullpen means something is if you have the starters to get them a lead. I am not convinced the Mets have the horses to do that enough.
Plus, both New York and Philly have two much-improved teams riding up their leg this season. I love the Marlins, from superstar Hanley Ramirez, to Dan Uggla, to Jeremy Hermida, to stud youngster Cameron Maybin, and their pitching, with a healed Josh Johnson and stud youngsters Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez, could make the Marlins this year's Rays. The Braves, on the other hand, have a nice mix of young and old, with Chipper Jones and Garret Anderson joining Jeff Francouer, Casey Kotchman, Brian McCann, and Kelly Johnson to make one solid lineup. But what I love about the Braves is their pitching, solidified by Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez. Jair Jurriens is a rising star and Kenshin Kawakami is as solid as they come.
The Marlins and/or the Braves could end up knocking one of the top two (Philly or New York) off by the end of the season.
The Nationals? Please. I mean, Please!! You need a few more years removed from the Jim Bowden era to have any chance to compete.
Teams I don't love but should: The New York Mets, The Arizona Diamondbacks.
Teams I should hate but don't: Florida Marlins, Cincinnatti Reds.
Best players: Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez
Best pitchers: Johan Santana, Carlos Zambrano, Clayton Kershaw
AL West:
Oakland Athletics
LA Angels
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
I have nothing but the utmost respect for Mike Scosia and the Angels, but I just get the sense that this is the year they fall off the wagon. First, they lost Mark Teixeira and replaced him with Bobby Abreu. That's a downgrade folks, pure and simple. Second, Vlady isn't getting any younger and while he has Gary Sheffield blood in him (he'll be able to hit when he is 60) you wonder how long the legs will hold up to playing the outfield every day. My guess is not long. Torii Hunter is still a top player and love the potential that still resides in Howie Kendrick, but that offense is, yet again, a bat or two from really being formidable.
The dirty little secret, however, is that the Angels pitching just isn't up to snuff compared to other years. John Lackey starts the year on the DL and who knows how effective he will be when he comes back. Jared Weaver has the stuff t be a top pitcher, but is he ready to carry the load this season as the team's ace? I don't think so. Nick Adenhart comes out of the spring in the five man rotation, and could be a huge boost for the team (he is as talented as anyon on the roster) but the loss of Jon Garland is bigger than many are admitting. He was a solid winner for this team each year.
Also, without K-Rod, the bullpen becomes suspect. Brian Fuentes is simply a thief in my opinion (and there aint nothing wrong with that). The guy is overrated as they come, but he got a nice contract out of the desperate Angels after K-Rod left for Queens and was given the closer role. Fans in Anaheim are not going to be pleased with the replacement.
Perhaps sensing the opportunity the A's jumped out there and made some big acquisitions. The offense has been more than bolstered by Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, and Orlando Cabrera, and a healthy Eric Chavez seems poised for a big year. Throw in some consumate professionals like Travis Buck and Mark Ellis and what was a laughable one through nine last year is suddenly powerful and balanced. What makes this pick such a gamble is that there are literally no guarantees when it comes to this teams pitching. They have three (sound familiar) top-caliber rookie pitchers in Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, and Dana Eveland (being sticklers for tradition, they are two lefties and one righty. Did they simply clone Mulder, Zito, and Hudson?) If those guys are as good as their talent dictates, and Oakland can repeat the Big Three years, then I think Oakland is the class of the division. However, they are rookies. How will they stand up to an entire season? Will there be more low moments than high moments? Can lightening really strike twice?
I am betting yes, but it is a big bet. This is a pick that could really look bad (what's new) at the end of the year.
After that, I like Texas as a potential sleeper team in this division. How can you not love this lineup? Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, and Chris Davis are all bit-time offensive players. Hank Blalock insists that he healthy and, if he is, there is no better veteran bat you can have in a lineup, and I am still a big believer in Jarod Saltalamacchia, who could join in the offensive fun. As always, the pitching staff will be the problem, but I think Brandon McCarthy and Matt Harrison can become the top pitchers rather than the bottom two in this rotation, moving mediocre hurlers like Kevin Millwood, Vincent Padilla, and Kris Benson to the back end of the rotation, where they belong. If McCarthy and Harrison make that leap, it will give this team some solid pitching to go with what promises to be a HUGE offensive club. They might not have enough to challenge for a playoff spot, but it should be a much better year in Arlington than it has been in recent years. And, with Oakland pitching such a question mark and the Angels obviously down, it wouldn't take much of an improvement for the Rangers to be challengers.
Pulling up the rear, the Seattle Mariners. Honestly, in my gut, I have a feeling they could be much better than last year (which wouldn't be too hard). I have a feeling that Griffey's return could be beneficial for Seattle the way his departure will help the Reds. Ichiro will be back in the lineup soon after the beginning of the season and should be his normal self, and Adrian Beltre still has life left in his bat. King Felix is, well, as good as it gets. Does Erik Bedard have anything left that resembles the top-quality pitcher he was two years ago? Perhaps.
But the Mariners were such a huge disappointment last year, and made all of us look so stupid, I can't in good conscious pick them to do anything but pile up more high draft picks. Plus, Russell Brayan is on this team. Can any club paying Branyan to pay for money expect to win? Answer - NO!!!!
AL Central:
Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Can anyone figure this division out? Not me. I picked the Tigers last year and, what they hell, I'm gonna do it again. They a great lineup and the potential for the best pitching staff in the division. Justin Verlander, Armando Gallaraga, and Edwin Jackson can all be big winners this year in my mind and, if Fernando Rodney can close out games, I think the Tigers can separate themselves in the end. Seriously, this team still has Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, and Placido Polanco mashing the ball, with speedy Curtis Granderson getting on base and scoring runs. And I honestly believe it is addition by subtraction with Sheffield. But this is the same team that choked it up last year, so how much of a lock are they?
Let me say this: I am confident in only one thing in this division and that is the Royals will NOT win in the end. I could easily see Minnesota, with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau continuing to lead an underrated offensive that might see Delmon Young finally come into his own (along with the addition of Joe Crede) and if Francisco Liriano returns to form quickly to join Scott Baker as top-quaility performers, than the Twins are as good as anyone in the central. Same thing for the Indians, who probably have the best overall lineup, especially if Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez join the fun (don't sleep on how important Mark deRosa will be for that team. He is the perfect grinder, big-game player to solidify all those still-younger sluggers. And Grady Sizemore might be your MVP at the end of this year. Joining that 40-40 club isn't out of the relam of possibility). My problem with the Indians is the pitching. Is Cliff Lee winning another Cy Young? Doubtful. Is Carl Pavano winning a game? There's a better chance of me and Jennifer Aniston starring in a romantic comedy together than that happening. And that bullpen is just brutal. If they can get to Kerry Wood, things would be okay, but there is little chance of that happening with the Rafael squared (Perez and Bentacourt) setting the table. Of course, if you ask Mike Francesa, he would suggest moving Fausto Carmona to the set-up role and all would be right with the world.
The White Sox won the division last year and, for the life of me, I have no idea how. I just think this team is aging worse than Bob Dylan right now. I do like Gavin Floyd and John Denks, and for some reason I am still a believer in Mark Buerhle, but I could see the likes of Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, and Paul Konerko all developing arthritis at the same time this season. I have a feeling they are on the same path the Tigers were on last year.
But, in truth, as I said, I wouldn't be shocked if any one of these teams, except the Royals, pulled out the division. They are all incredibly flawed yet good enough to compete.
AL East:
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
Come on, did you expect anything else? I am a Yankee fan, and this is the Yankees year. They have the best pitching in the league and, by the end of the year, AJ Burnett might be the best of the bunch. Brian Bruney and Damaso Marte should be able to bridge the gap to Mariano Rivera, who hasn't lost anything just yet, and young armed Phil Coke and soon-to-be in the bullpen Mark Melacon could provide the type of hard throwers that could make the bullpen a real plus. In any given series, the Yankees should have the pitching edge on most nights, especially if Chien Mien Wang returns to his winning ways and Joba Chamberlain progresses throughout the year.
The offense will be somewhat hampered early on without A-Rod, but Teixeira should live up to his contract, Posada has looked terrific swinging the bat in the spring, Damon and Jeter should have normal, if not better, years (Damon is on a walk year and Jeter should be healthier than last season, when he struggled with a hand injury). I also LOVE Cano to step up and be a big-time player, and the lineup will now feature grinders like Brett Gardner, Xavier Nady, and Nick Swisher who, mark my words, will get essentially full-time play this season (I think Matsui might be on his last legs).
For the first time in a long time, I think this lineup is balanced and injected with needed youth and excitement.
I originally picked the Rays third, believing that, of the three big teams, they were the most likely to fall back, but I just love their pitching too much, and have too much respect for players like Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, and BJ Upton to believe they will slip all that much. Plus, David Price is coming eventually and returning Troy Percival to the lineup I believe can be a big plus for this team.
They are the most athletic club in baseball and put more pressure on you than anyone else. I think they fall off a bit, but not much.
So, yes Nation, I am picking the Sox to finish out of the running. Why? First, I loath your team. I mean LOATH!!!! I don't even find that stupid video game commercial with Dustin Pedoria funny. Any site of that balding, 5 foot freak just ruins my day. But, aside from my hatred, I legitimately think the Sox have more questions this year than perhaps any other year. How healthy are David Ortiz and Mike Lowell? How much will they miss Manny? Can Pedroia and Youkillis repeat career years? Is Jeb Lowrie the answer at short stop?
Those are all significant question marks, but to me the biggest thing is the pitching. Peter Gammons has his head so far up his ass he actually believes that the addition of Brad Penny and John Smoltz gives the team depth. Maybe Pete has paid a lot of attention these last few years but Penny hasn't been good for a long time and Smoltz, coming off an injury, is ANCIENT, to the point where the Braves let him go at the expense f a HUGE public relations backlash. Oh, and did mention neither one of these guys has pitched in the AL, let alone the AL East? Yeah, they are definitely not going to implode.
Jsh Beckett, when he is healthy, is as good as anyone, and Jon Lester showed signs of being a top pitcher last season. Dice-K is a walking inigma, always on the high-wire but always getting to the other side. But what happens in the walks and the hard liners start to bite Dice-K rather than simply nip as they have in the past? Or what if there is an injury and you have to rely on Clay Bucholtz to be a major contributor? Tim Wakefield if a 5 ERA waiting to happen and, after that there isn't much else of a sure thing.
Paplebon(er) is great in the ninth, but Okajima showed signs of slowing down last year after his great rookie season and Justin Masterson is still raw. When stacked up, I just don't think the pitching is on the same level as the Yanks and the Rays.
After the Sox, the Jays and the Orioles both believe they have what it takes to put a scare into teams, but I don't see it. Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the AL and probably on par with Santana, but does David Purcey put a scare into anyone? That's what I thought. And the Orioles top pitcher is Jeremy Guthrie. Need I say more.
Neither team is terrible, and both make you pitch because they can score runs (Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are especially formidable in the middle of the O's lineup) but both teams are a cut below the big three.
Teams I should love but don't - Red Sox, Angels, White Sox
Teams I should hate but don't - Tigers, A's, Rangers
Best Players - Robinson Cano, Carlos Pena, Grady Sizemore
Best Pitchers - AJ Burnett, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez
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