Calling Bullshit on....................Dice-K

For those of you who wouldn’t consider yourselves to be card sharks, here is a little run down of the game "Bullshit" (highly recommended by the way, if you haven’t ever tried it before). An entire deck of cards is dealt out between the players of the game. Starting with the first person to have the 2 of clubs, each players lays down a set of cards, face down, in order in the middle of the table. In other words, if player one lays down two cards and says they are "two 2's" the next person must lay down cards higher than those twos (so three 3's or two 4's). Again, remember, all cards all lain face down.

So now, after a person has claimed to lay down their "two 2's" someone at the table can choose to let the game continue or scream out "bullshit." If a person screams out bullshit, the cards are flipped over to see if the person was lying about their two 2's or not. If they were, the cheater picks up the entire stack of cards that has been laid down to that point. If they weren’t, the person who accused them must pick up all the cards.

In other words, it is about catching people in a bullshit lie. (For a much better description of the game check out Wikipedia here)

So today, in our never ending game with the sport’s world, I am officially calling "bullshit" on Dice-K.

We have heard so much about this guy, so many people have crowned him the next great thing, so many people have anointed him the greatest pitcher of all time, I was expecting him to walk across Boston Harbor before the game and turn pints into quarts of beer. Could it simply have been a bad outing? Sure, but A LOT of cards were lain down by the Red Sox PR Machine over the last several months (The Boston Globe, The Boston Herald, the radio stations and The Sports Guy on ESPN.com) and, in his first big test of the season, it was interesting to see what they looked like when they were finally turned over.

Card 1: He has 12 pitches - Calling Bullshit

The gyroball is like Bigfoot. It doesn’t exist, but some people are so wrapped up in it they will never let the fantasy go. By all accounts the gyroball is a slider that doesn’t slide. It is actually an "aww fuck" pitch for most other pitchers, but he throws it on purpose. Besides that he has a very good change-up and a decent breaking ball that has a sharp curve action. Add that to his fastball and Dice-K has about as many pitches as Gil Meche on a good day. You only really need three pitches, three GOOD pitches in the majors to be successful, so the fact that the little samurai is 7 pitches short of a dozen isn’t an indictment on his overall ability. It is, however, an indictment on the worst crop of sports journalists in America, the Boston Red Sox beat writers, who take whatever shit Theo Epstein is dishing out that day and smear it all over their back pages.

Card 2: He is another Pedro - Calling MAJOR Bullshit

There was no more unlikable pitcher than Pedro when he was with the Red Sox. First, he was with the Red Sox, which automatically ratchets up anyone’s asshole level by at least a 5. Second, he was a skinny little punk who consistently threw at people, knowing full well he would never have to defend himself up at the plate. In fact, one of the few times his antics caused a major stir, the 2003 playoff series against the Yankees, Pedro decided to take on 80-year old Don Zimmer. Big man Pedro, big man.

But Pedro, through all of his punk ass antics, was pound for pound the best pitcher I have ever seen. Dominant doesn’t even begin to describe him. He was a perfect game waiting to happen every time he stepped out there. As great as Johan Santana is for the Twins right now (and he is amazing) it actually doesn’t compare to how good Pedro was in his prime. No one, not Clemens, not Johnson, not Maddux, not anyone ever came close to the type of dominance Pedro displayed. Even as a Yankee fan, you had to marvel at him.

Dice-K has been billed as the next Pedro. That’s sort of like billing Jessica Simpson the next Meryl Streep. It is just another invention of the Red Sox PR machine (the media). Let’s look at it this way; Pedro threw 5 devastating pitches, all for strikes. He was a bull dog. He never, ever backed down. A bad outing for Pedro was 7 innings and 3 runs. You had to get to him, usually, with lucky home runs because the few times he got into trouble he always got meaner and nastier. And he threw 98 MPH, with a two seamer and a four seamer. Like I said, he was dominant.

Dice-K? Well, the comparison’s between the two begin and end with the fact that both can throw a variety of pitches for strikes. Besides that, there is NOTHING similar. Pedro was a bull dog. Dice-K has already shown a penchant for giving up the big hit in the big moment, whether that be in a 3-1 game or a 7-6 game. In a time when Dice, having never pitched in the majors before, should be dominating because he is so new to the hitters he is facing, he hasn't really wowed anyone. Against the Yankee lineup he was putrid, giving up big hit after big hit and giving the Yankee’s life in a game they blew in the seventh. Unlike Pedro he is significantly worse with runners on base, he doesn’t throw nearly as hard, which means he doesn’t have the gas to just blow people away when his off speed stuff isn’t working, and he his ceiling is as high as it is gonna get.

Pedro was an all time great. Dice-K seems like just a solid pitcher.

Card 3: Dice-K has the perfect mentality for Boston - Calling bullshit (but not that confident he can’t flip this card in my face)

It has been three games, one of which was against the Royals, that Dice-K has pitched so this is really just, again, the Beantown media playing up the great Matsusaka for the world. Truth is, we have no idea how he is gonna pitch in big spots, in big moments this year. All we do know is this; on the road against Toronto, in a great pitchers duel, Dice-K gave the game away after not getting a called third strike on Vernon Wells. He gave up two runs, late in the game, and while he struck out 10, he lost. Against the Yankees at home Matsusaka was horrible, getting hit hard by all the big batters in the Bomber’s lineup and he was lifted in the eighth with no outs because it appeared he was about to let the yanks get right back in the game.

What does that tell us?

Not much. Actually, nothing. The only thing it does tell us is that, so far, Matsusaka hasn’t shown some other worldly ability to block out what is happening around him and bare down. He hasn’t had a lot of "gut check" moments just yet but the only two times he has been put in tough spots, he hasn’t come through. And the fact that he completely changes when men are on base, seemingly more uncomfortable, isn’t a great indicator of his talent to overcome.

Card 4: Dice-K is worth the money the Red Sox spent - I’m gonna let this card go by, for now.

Do I think Matsusaka is a $100 million? Umm.....wouldn’t be writing this piece of shit column if I did. But there are a lot of other factors to signing a guy like Dice-K. First, Japan is baseball crazy, and signing Dice-K is like the Mariners signing Ichiro or the Yanks signing Matsui. Years after both of those players were signed in the majors Japan still tunes in to see every one of their games. Hoards of Japanese media still follow both teams around like puppies. They are as big now as they ever were. So signing the biggest pitcher to ever come out of the orient isn’t just about wins and loses, it’s about the money the Red Sox will bring in now that they are entrenched in the Japanese market.

Secondly, the Red Sox are about as revenue rich a team as you can find in sports. Sure, lil’ Theo and his moron cronies always seem to want to blame their failure on their imaginary inability to compete with the Yanks payroll, but we all know that’s a load of, well, BULLSHIT!!!! So the truth is, as irresponsible as the Matsusaka signing may have been, considering the fact that I don’t believe he is gonna be one of the top three or four pitchers in the league, the Sox can afford it. It is money they have available.

See, the majority of people who complain about money in baseball do so out of some strange jealousy that an athlete is getting paid a kinds ransom for going to play a game that most of us take time away from our schedules to try and play. The reality is, players making money means nothing to a team unless that team puts itself in a position where one contract can hamstring the entire franchise. Take, for instance, Barry Zito and the Giants. The fact that Zito is being paid far more than he is worth means nothing. God bless the guy for turning a very nice career into one of the most lucrative pay days in the history of sports. You’re worth what someone will pay you, that’s it. But the Giants are not a revenue rich team, meaning that the millions they are paying Zito may come at the expense of the millions they could pay perhaps two or three other players. If the Giants are able to still sign free agents they target or trade for big players they may need than the money they paid means nothing. If, however, the trade deadline comes around and the Giants find themselves in desperate need of another big bat, or the off season comes around and the Giants need another major player to compliment their team, and they can’t do it because so much of their money is now tied to Zito, well then the signing was imbecilic. Only time will tell.

But we already know that won’t be the case with the Red Sox. They need Clemens, they will pay him. Outfield isn’t producing and a big bat becomes available, they will shell out the cash. The Matsusaka deal didn’t change the way the Red Sox have done, and will do business, so the signing was worth it for the team.

In the end, what I think is this: Dice-K is gonna be a good pitcher. He is a number 2 in this league, which aint too shabby. He is, specially his first time through the league, gonna have impressive strike out totals. He is going to have some big games. But, overall, when you look up, Dice-K is going to be a guy who will probably win 14 or 15 games a year, have an ERA of 3.2 on the low side and 4.2 on the high side, with most years falling somewhere in the middle, and his ability to come through in the big game will be tested time and time again.

A far cry from the "bullshit" hype we have been fed about this guy now for three months, but a productive pitcher none the less.

But don’t worry, just like the ESPN crew from Sunday night, who made it seem like Dice-K dominated the Yankees with a 6 run, 7 inning performance, the Boston PR machine will do their best to convince everyone that Matsusaka is BETTER than his stats, your eyes, or his win total indicates. We are about to see the GREATEST SINGLE mediocre year from a pitcher ever witnessed. Get ready, the Sport’s Guy and the rest of the Red Suck Nation will accept nothing less.