The AL East has been the beast of baseball since the early part of the 1990s. First, it was the Toronto Blue Jays and the Joe Carter teams that dominated baseball. Then, the Yankees produced their dynasty teams that reigned from 1995-2001. Now, the Red Sox have won two of the last four World Series titles. This is where the Cold War of baseball is being played out. The Yanks and the Sox have become so much of a rivarly it carries over into every aspect of the game, from the media relations to trades to free agency, and it only looks to be even more heated this year.
While some of the other teams in the division can make a claim to playoff contention if everything breaks right, it seems like it is going to come down to the monsters of the NorthEast once again when October rolls around. It will be The Evil Empire versus Red Sox Nation.
Baltimore Orioles: I find this to be, perhaps, the saddest story in all of baseball. This is a once proud franchise in a great baseball city with the standard bearer for all modern stadiums as their home. Now, they are not only an afterthought in the East, they are by far the least competitive team within the division and miles behind the others. The Birds traded ace starter Erik Bedard to the Mariners for stud outfield prospect Adam Jones, who may very well be a superstar in the making, but considering Jones has had only a handful of at bats in the majors, it is hard to believe he will be a major contributor to the offense this year, especially enough so to make up for the loss of one of the best lefties in the game. Baltimore also seems hell bent on trading Brian Roberts somewhere (probably the Cubs) and, even if Brian is on the team starting this week, it is hard to believe he is there for the long haul at all.
The only established, superstar player on the team is Nick Markakis, who looks like he might be poised for a break out year. Showing an impressive range of talents, both offensively and defensively, Markakis promises to be the one bright spot in a lineup that still has the feel of a 1999 bench team with guys like Kevin Millar, Melvin Mora, Ramon Hernandez, and Aubrey Huff eating up roster spots.
The rotation? Without Bedard holding down a spot, it is hard to see where, exactly, the Orioles are going to turn to get needed wins during a losing streak. Jeremy Guthrie might be the team's best pitcher at this point, and Daniel Cabrera still has a world of talent, but both players are well past their "they have potential" stage and appear to simply be what they are: average to below average pitchers. Besides that they have Steve Trachsel, who is still alive, and Adam Loewen. The bullpen will be manned by Jamie Walker, a good relief pitcher, handing the ball over to George Sherril. Let's face it, with that lineup and pitching, 100 loses on the season, in a tough division, isn't out of the question. You know how New York Knicks fans go to bed every night PRAYING James Dolan sells the team? You get the sense Orioles fans might be feeling the exact same way about Peter Angelos.
Tampa Bay Rays: First off, a part of me wants to call them the Devil Rays throughout the year just to annoy everyone in Tampa. I mean, seriously, is there anyone who HONESTLY believes the RAYS were having a tough go of it because they had the name Devil in there? I own a Dirt Devil vaccum, should I be searching for an excercism team right about now?
What the RAYS always had a problem with was simple: pitching. As the big teams circled around them, producing and signing pitchers, the Rays became a perfect place for those big teams to go and grab a few talented pitchers when they needed. This year, the Rays pitching promises to be by far the most formidable they have ever produced in their less than stellar history.
Scott Kazmir is a name that sends Mets fans into a rage the way the name Bill Buckner sends Red Sox fans over the edge. Kazmir is a bonafide ace. He has some flaws, no question. He walks too many people, he has too many games where he just gets lit up, but is also a young, flame throwing lefty who DOMINATES the best teams in the division (especially the Red Sox). If he ever developed a little more control, he could be as good as anyone in baseball. James Shields had one of those "wow, who is this guy again" types of years, pitching well over 200 innings, striking out 184, and posting an ERA of under 4. Ar 26 Shields should just be coming into his own, and could joing Kazmir to form a great one-two punch for the Rays for years to come. The most interesting pitcher hurler on the staff, in my opinion, is Matt Garza. The righty who came over from the Twins for Delmon Young, was one of the most prized young prospects in the game only two years ago. However, Garza didn't burst onto the scene the way the Twins had hoped, but the 24-year old still has the talent to be a top pitcher, and he could turn the Rays staff into the best young rotation in the league.
The lineup? Well, this isn't your brother's Rays. Carl Crawford is one of the best players in the game, providing speed, decent power, and an understanding of the game matched by very few. Can Carlos Pena produce close to the way he did last year? Logic would say no, but since I have a little crush on this team I am gonna make the case that Pena will show last year was no fluke. He was, after all, one of the brightest young players to come up through the minors, has about the sweetest swing in baseball, and has worked hard to regain a spot in a MLB lineup. I think Pena stays that big power threat he was last year. BJ Upton is one of the most promising young players in the game, and he will move to center field this year, where is speed should help his defensivley, and his second full year in the majors should produce bigger numbers at the plate. After that, the Rays have decent players to surround those big three players: Akinori Iwamura, who got better as the year went on at third base, the veteran Cliff Floyd, who could be reborn as a DH, Johnny Gomes, who provides some pop and an emotional spark to the team, and Wily Aybar.
What could make the difference between the Rays just being better and being a team that puts a scare into people is the bullpen. Al Reyes is about as solid as they come and Dan Wheeler is certainly serviceable, but Troy Percival, once as dominate as they came, will be the difference. If he regains some of his former stuff, it could be a really fun year.
Having said that, in my opinion the most interesting part of the Rays season will be how far they get on their now-proposed new stadium. Perhaps more than any other team, the Rays NEED a new home. It appears the Marlins are on the road to getting their own stadium, the Rays need the same. If the Rays can secure a new park before the end of this year, it may mean the perennial also rans will be only a few short years away from at least keeping a good percentage of their big young players, enough to build a team around. If not, the Rays will more than likely start to mortgage off their best parts, as usual, and, at that point, would have to SERIOUSLY think about moving the team out of the Florida area.
Toronto Blue Jays: I have had a man crush on the Jays for the past several years, and each year I have said the same thing: "This team could possibly knock off either the Yanks or the Sox if things break right, but they probably won't" and you know what? I have been right each time. Guess what, I see the same thing this year.
The Jays have the same lineup they had last year, with Vernon Wells looking to get back on track, Alex Rios looking to take his place as one of the games elite players, and Frank Thomas looking to continue to defy father time.
The starting rotation, likewise, is the same as it was last year, with Roy Halladay looking like he is healthy and ready for a great year, AJ Burnett looking to repeat his bounce back year last year, Dan McGowan looking to become the third cog in the wheel, and Shawn Marcum trying to finally put all the pieces into place and become a major part of the rotation. The looks to be even more formidable, with Jason Frasor and Scott Downs setting up for either Jeremy Accardo, who was one of the best closers in the game last year, or BJ Ryan, who was one of the best closers in the game before his injury last year.
So if the lineup is formidable, combining speed, power, and veteran presence; the rotation talented, with four guys who could potentially win double digit games; and a bullpen that could have four shut down relievers, why are we not talking about the Jays winning the East?
First, until someone else steps in, this is still Yankee/Red Sox land, and it takes a full season to prove you belong. Second, we have been saying this about the Jays for the past three years, lamenting their potential, and each year something happens to derail their dreams, whether it was Roy Halladay and AJ Burnett going down to injury two years ago or Vernon Wells following up his MVP caliber season in 06 with a very lackluster season last year. Finally, the Jays have too many "I'll believe it when I see it" guys, like the fact that I'll believe Burnett can stay healthy when I see it, or I'll trust Matt Stairs in a big spot when I see it.
Maybe this is the year the Jays put it all together and they are going crazy in Toronto come October, but, again, I'll have to see it to believe it.
Boston Red Sox: I hate the Sox so I am not going to spend a whole lotta time on this team because even mentioning them makes me a little queasy. Are they a good team? Absolutely. They are a championship caliber team, no question, but the truth is, I believe the Sox team is VASTLY overrated. They could win, but they could also easily lose, and it seems as if people believe them to be the safe bet in the majors. I just don't see it and let me tell yah why:
The lineup: We know what we are gonna see from David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. In fact, Manny, on a potential walk year (the Sox have an option on him at the end of the year), could be due for an even better year than the one we have come to expect. However, after that, I can't see exactly where the lineup offers this murders row some would expect. Jason Varitek has been in a steady decline for the last several years, Julio Lugo is all but a waste of an at bat and still seems to be living off his one good year in 2005, JD Drew had a terrific postseason but his regular season seemed to confirm to all that the spotlight of Boston might not exactly be a good fit, Coco Crisp has been forced out of center field, replaced by a rookie, Jacoby Ellsbury, who most certainly has talent but may not burst onto the scene the way most automatically assume he will, and both Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell promise to have seasons more in line with their careers than a season like last, which was a career year for most players. Dustin Pedroia appears to be the real deal, but in a division of thundering lineups, the Sox everyday-ers are not as intimidating as they would seem to be.
The rotation: I saw a ranking the other day that had the Sox rotation listed as the best in baseball. Did I miss something? Did I miss where the Sox landed Johan Santana? Did I dream the Mets swindel? The Sox rotation is good, but it has the same pitfalls as many others. Let's assume Josh Beckett gives the same performance as he did in 07 (he's never pitched two straight healthy, big time seasons, but let's assume he does), that leaves Dice K to prove he is better than the number 3 pitcher he looked like last year, Tim Wakefield to prove he has something left, and both John Lester and Clay Bucholtz have to prove they can handle a full major league season. My prediction? Lester turns out to be a stand out pitcher, Bucholtz needs more seasoning in the minors, Dice K is what he is, and Wakefield has nother left. With a thin minor league system to produce starters, that means the Sox rotation is, in my mind, average.
The bullpen: The pen should be a real strength for the Sox, with Paplebon as one of the best closers in the game and Hideki Okajima handing it over to him. Mike Timlin has always been a better 7th inning guy and Manny Delcarmen is a talented reliever who could, one day, be a back end type of guy.
The fact is the Sox have guts, determination, and an understanding of how to win, but they also have the biggest opportunity to be an average team. My vote, my prayer, is that the Sox fall out of it.
New York Yankees: Okay, I'll spare everyone a detailed account of the Yanks roster because, let's face it, you probably already know it by heart. I'll simply get right to the point as to why I believe the Yanks are gonna win the division over the Sox and Jays this year. Simply put: Phil Hughes.
I'll take Hughes over almost every other young pitcher in the game today, and I believe the 22 year old can have a break out season this year. His velocity, which suffered after he returned from the DL, is back, and so is his control. He has the stellar curve and, in the spring, turned his raw change into a major leagie ready pitch. Many have compared him to a young Clemens, but Joba Chamberlain seems to fall more into that comparison. Rather, I think Hughes has Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy written all over him. He is a perfect mechanical machine, and unless some freak injury gets to him, I think Hughes is poised to be HUGE this year. Add that to the mainstays of Andy Pettite and Chien Mien Wang, and that is as solid a 1-2-3.
Add that to an offense where I believe as many as five players (Damon, Giambi, Abreu, Cabrera, and Matsui) could have bounce back years, and a bullpen that features the best 1-2 punch of Chamberlain and Rivera, and I think the Yanks will simply be too much for too many teams, especially if either Mike Mussina or Ian Kennedy give the Yanks more than they are counting on right now.
Add in a more aggresive manager in Joe Girardi who understands how to handle a pitching staff better than Joe Torre did at the end, and I think the Yanks are primed for a great year.
Prediction: Yankees
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Rays
Orioles
Division Player of the Year: Alex Rios
Division Pitcher of the Year: Scott Kazmir
Division Comeback Player of the Year: Jason Giambi
Playoffs: Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Indians (wild card)
Pennant Winner: Tigers
AL MVP: Alex Rios
AL Cy Young Award Winner: Fausto Carmona
Odds and Ends: Teams I should love but don't - Red Sox, Braves, Mets, Mariners.
Teams I should hate but don't - Blue Jays, Twins, Reds, Dodgers
Players I should love but don't - Jose Reyes, Mike Lowell, Torii Hunter
Players I should hate but don't - Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, Dustin Pedroia
Things I would most like to see happen - Both the Rays and the Marlins finalize deals for their new, state of the art ballparks and finally give their fans something to root for.
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