I already went through the moves that I believe need to be made for next year. Let's examine some of the hot-button issues surrounding the Yanks as they head into the postseason.
Should he stay or should he go now??????
Bobby Abreu. Oh Bobby, what are we gonna do with you?
In one of my last posts I talked about bringing Bobby back for a few more years. The logic behind that is pretty obvious; this team is starved for offensive production and giving up on a .300 20 100 guy who scores 100 runs and still gets on base (even if it isn't as automatic as it used to be) seems like a backward move, don't you think?
But for all his good qualities, there are also a lot of negatives. First, Bobby aint the sharpest tool in the shed. His base running is putrid and he has a tendency to hurt the team at the wrong time in the wrong spots. The only thing worse is the man's defense. Saying it is shaky is generous. He plays scared. He won't go near the wall. He won't dive for a liner or try for a shoestring catch at critical moments when the team needs a defensive pick-me-up.
He is also an aging player who, despite putting up consistent numbers with the Yanks the last few seasons, has seen his overall performance go down since his heady days with the Phillies. Next year he will be 35. That isn't ancient at all. In fact, barring injury, you SHOULD be able to expect at least two or three more good years from the man. But do you want to committ to Abreu for an extended period of time? All indications say no.
It seems finances will answer this question. All reports are that the Yanks will offer Abreu arbitration. If he accepts, the Yanks control Abreu for one more season at a relatively low price. But what are the chances Abreu, in this baseball climate, coming off a year where he went .300 20 100 once again won't get a multi-year contract for someone? My guess is someone throws years and money at Bobby - years and money the Yanks won't match - and Abreu's career as a Yank comes to a quiet end.
Robby Cano, don't you know?
Trade or not to trade, that is the question, and the Yanks are gonna have to answer that fairly quickly in the offseason. My feeling? Cano is coming off what has really been a bad, bad year, but he has worked with Kevin Long, corrected some holes in his swing, and seemed to take the benching by Joe Girardi (a long time coming) well, stepping up his intensity and hustle. I can't imagine, given his stats, you could trade Cano for anywhere near what Cano should be worth? My feeling on Cano is this..........if you had a vintage Bentley and, coming home one day, you hit a slick spot on the road and went into a telephone pole. The damage wasn't significant, and everything about the car was the same, but the front end was dinged up, the bumper off, and some improvements would be necessary. Would you then decide to go and sell the car? Would you really pick the time when the car's value was at its lowest to sell? Or would you fix the car up and then decide if you wanted to sell or hang onto the vehicle?
I can't imagine anyone would pay what Cano is worth at this point. If someone showed up on the Yankee doorstep and said "we'll give you our best players for Cano" then the Yanks should sit down and talk. However, I truly believe Cano has offensive greatness in his future and I believe, unless someone is willing to overpay to get him, Robby C should be patrolling second for a long, long time.
One more ride with the Giambino?
There has been a lot of comment about possibly bringing the G-man back for one more year. It's obvious that Giambi is a popular player in that clubhouse and there is no question the big guy can still crush the ball. You really can't argue with the numbers and, bucking the trend of the last few years, the big man stayed pretty healthy all year long. There is still baseball left in that bat, no question.
But something needs to change on this team and, as solid a player as Giambi has been, his style of play, his type of game is the epitome of what the Yanks have been over the last few years; slow, plodding, one dimensional guys who aren't exactly defensive gurus. Giambi is a DH, whether he likes that or not. He has been a good player for the Yanks but, given his age and his limited game, the Yanks should let him move on to another team, one that is actively looking for a big, slugging DH to compliment perhaps a faster, more defensive oriented roster. The Yanks need the opposite. They need to hang on to a guy like Matsui and ADD fast, defensive, gritty players that have more than just a few years left in the tank.
The center of attention?
Okay, we know the Yanks don't want to throw Johnny Damon out in center every day. Girardi has already said Damon is the type of player that needs days off from time to time and there has been a feeling within the Yankee organization for the last few years that Johnny Damonic just aint up to the everyday rigors of playing the spacious center field at Yankee Stadium (the new place will have the same dimensions as the old). So what do the Yanks do?
Well, there is a prevailing thought out there that the Yanks will go and get themselves a center fielder. What I love about such rumors, such proclamations, is that they seem to just materialize out of thin air. "The Yanks will get a center fielder." Really? From where? Is there a great, young center field depot I'm no aware of? Are they sold on eBay? Can you buy a "build your own Ellsbury" kit on Amazon.com?
In a perfect world, a young, talented, Bernie Williams clone would be out there for the having, but he aint. So, who would the Yanks be looking at? Juan Pierre? Please. Aaron Rowand? Very nice player but are the Giants, desparate for hitting and evidently ready to trade Matt Cain to get some, really going to give away one of their only legit offensive weapons? Doubt it. Shane Victorino? The Phillies are on their way back to the playoffs for the second year in a row in large part due to the gutty Victorino type players they have. I doubt they want to mess with that chemistry.
The name you hear alot of Nate McClouth from the Pirates. Now, I would never underestimate the stupidity of a franchise like the Pirates, but why would the Bucs trade a young, power-hitting center fielder who won't really start to cost the team any money for another 3 years, especially when they already jettisoned Xavier Nady and Jason Bay at the deadline?
To me, the smartest move for the Yanks would be to give Bret Gardner all the opportunity in the world to be the Yanks everyday center fielder. He is a plus defender. He has blazing speed. He can do all the little things a player of his type should be able to - bunt, steal, move runners over. You can put Damon in left where his defensive short comings are all but hidden and his speed and ability to get decent jumps on the ball are highlighted. Then, you can move Nady to right field (after letting Abreu walk) and have a very good defensive outfield, if allbeit a relatively weak throwing one.
Plus, the Yanks have to remember that their best young position player prospect, Austin Jackson, seems to be about a year away from making the leap to the bigs. Right now he is a center fielder (named defensive player of the year for the Eastern League this season) but, if Gardner took to the position, it would seem Jackson could easily move to right or left in 2010 when Damon's contract expires. If the Yanks are serious about going in a different direction it would seem to me that Gardner is the perfect type of player to begin to phase into the mix. Plus, if the Yanks are going to use some of their better young minor leaguers to bring in another bat, it should be used to shore up our next topic.........
Who's on first?
I still believe the Yanks should use the considerable amount of money they have coming off the books this offseason to go after Mark Teixiera, even though the switch hitting first baseman will cost a lot in terms of years and money. Obviously, the Yanks will be looking at, and paying for pitching, but why not pursue a young, healthy, power hitting, switch hitting, gold glove caliber first baseman to plug in for the next decade? Even a long term deal (7 or 8 years) for Tex would only put him in his mid-30's when the contract came up, meaning there is a VERY GOOD chance the Yanks could get top, consistent play from him for the duration of the contract.
However, let's jump the gun here and assume the Yanks can't land Tex for first. What then?
Well, as I said before, I don't think the answer is bringing Giambi back so a trade would be necessary. Who for? One of the names the media has thrown around this year is Casey Kotchman of the Braves. Casey went to the Braves in the Teixiera deal. He is a slick-fielding 25-year old that seems like he may just be scratching the surface of his potential. However, Kotchman's numbers are not eye-popping and the Braves are usually one of the smartest teams in baseball when it comes to player evaluation. If they are willing to let Kotchman go after less than a year on the team, shouldn't that send signals? Then there is Conor Jackson in Arizona. Jackson doesn't have the prototypical power you want and expect from a first baseman. So far this year, at 26, he only has 12 dingers. But Jackson is a .300 hitter, does have some pop, and is a terrific defensive player. How about Joey Votto with the Reds? Cincinnatti has already shown a willingness to trade offensive for pitching (Hamilton for Volquez last year). Would they be willing to part ways with budding star Votto for Phil Hughes and/or Ian Kennedy? Would the Yanks be willing to do that?
Teixiera offers the Yanks an option of only having to expend dollars, not prospects, however if they don't land him, they can't settle for another first baseman in name only, or clog both their defense and lineup with guys who are only DH quality. There are some young first basemen out there to be had and, even though they all have question marks, they also all have that Tino-esque potential. Winning teams require smart scouting and knowing about a player's ability before he shows up in your clubhouse. Finding a quality first baseman will be a real challenge for the Yanks front office.
We know about CC, but what about AJ?
The Yanks are gonna go after CC Sabathia. We all know this. Unless the Brewers, in their desire to make the playoff for the first time in what seems like a century, don't ruin Sabathia's career in a 3 week span, the big lefty will be the centerpiece of the Yanks off season moves.
The other name on the market will be AJ Burnett, the 31-year-old power-pitching righty for the Blue Jays. I have to admit, I am somewhat shocked at how in love some fans and media types have become with Burnett. If anyone ONLY watched him pitch against the Yanks it wouldn't be hard to understand. He is Don Drysdal and Sandy Koufax wrapped in one arm when he sees the Pinstripes. His record against virtually everyone else is what concerns me.
First, this is only the third time in his career he has pitched 200 innings or more and only the second time he has made 30+ starts. In 2006 he pitched only 135 innings, followed by 165 innings in 2007, so it isn't as if Burnett has come right up to the 200 innings line each year and just fallen short. Usually his years are cut short due to injury.
Second, his highest win total before this year (where he won 18 games) was 12. Third, while his ERA has never been bad, it has also never been exceptionally impressive. The lowest ERA of his career was 3.30 in 2002 with the Marlins. This year, for all his success, his ERA is 4.07. But what is even more disturbing to me, honestly, is how similar this situation is to Carl Pavano's situation. Before the Yanks signed Pavano in 2005 he had only pitched 200 innings twice in his career. He won 18 games in 2004, with his second highest win total of his career being 12. He had only stared 30+ games twice before in his career. And, of course, he was a teammate of Burnett on the Marlins team that won the series against the Yanks in 2003. Now, don't get me wrong, Pavano and Burnett are not the same pitchers. Burnett's ERA has hovered around 3.5 to 4 his entire career whereas Pavano had only two years with an ERA under 4. While neither pitcher was especially durable, Burnett has at least pitched over 130 innings almost each year, whereas Pavano had many years where he barely pitched 100. And, Burnett is a certified power pitcher with nasty stuff. Pavano never had that kind of talent (in fact, when you look at what Pavano was coming off the 2004 season, it is really mindboggling to think so many teams were ready to throw ace-quality money at a guy with such a shoddy background).
But Burnett represents a 31 year-old injury plagued pitcher coming off his best year ever, looking to capitalize on a season he may not duplicate. Haven't the Yanks been down that road before?
Go get Sabathia, make Chamberlain a starter from day one of spring training, get Wang healthy, and then bring back Mussina and Pettitte. That gives you a GREAT combination of youth, potential and talent. Then, depending on what you have to trade to inject some youth into your lineup, you will have Hughes waiting in the wings to step in if there is an injury.
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