Yea or Nay on a few trade rumors

Let the hot stove begin baby!!!!!!!!!!!!

We aren't even half way through the ALCS or NLCS and yet the trade rumors have already begun to heat up, especially in New York where both stadiums in the Bronx and Queens are quiet for the first time since 1994. Things will really start to get interesting in the next few weeks when the games officially end, but for now let's look at two trade rumors that are out there and whether they would be right or wrong for the Bombers.

Carlos Beltran for Robinson Cano, Ian Kennedy and a minor leaguer:

Before we look at how viable this trade is, let's look at the merits. The Yankees, in this type of trade, would get one of the best center fielders in the game; a very good defensive player who hits for power and has shown the ability to play in big games in New York. Just look at Beltran and his numbers in Sept. for the Mets the last two years. As everyone else was faltering, Beltran was thriving, and in the last game ever at Shea this year, Beltran had the ONLY big hit for the Amazins - a two run homer that, at the time, tied the game.

Since Beltran is only 31 and signed for the next 5 years, at what now looks to be a somewhat reasonable contract, he would most likely be a mainstay in the New Yankee Stadium for years and would provide another switch hitter to the Yanks lineup. Beltran could easily take over as the Yanks third place hitter, sliding into Bobby Abreu's old slot and giving the Yanks more speed and power out of that spot in the lineup, and a good OBP in front of A-Rod.

The Mets would get Robinson Cano who has shown the ability to be an elite offensive player who may just be coming into his own. Cano is coming off a down year, but 2007 showed Cano capable of a .300 20 100 year batting at the bottom of the Yankee order. There are few second basemen who can duplicate those types of numbers and Cano may eventually be even better than a Chase Utley. Cano is also very athletic around second base and has the opportunity to be a gold-glove caliber second baseman. While it is unclear whether Cano would ever reach the power numbers of a Beltran, he could surpass him in terms of average, equal him in terms of RBI, and provide the Mets with a younger, elite offensive player that provides such offensive explosion from an unlikely source - second base.

Also included in the deal would be Kennedy, supposedly. Kennedy's year with the Yanks could not have gone any worse. His stuff looked pedestrain at best. His attitude was a question mark. He picthed horribly, got injured, went back to the minors, pitched brilliantly, got called back up in the middle of a pennant race, pitched horribly again, seemed to not really care, got sent back down and was never heard from in September. It's hard to imagine that kind of resume fetching a lot on the market.

However, Kennedy is a first round draft pick and was, as of last year, one of the more coveted pitching prospects in the majors. Kennedy dominated the minors and his soft stuff may translate much better to the NL than to the rough and tumble AL East. Kennedy is also only 22, meaning that his failures this year may not be indicative of anything other than immaturity, easily correctable with time. If Kennedy were to fix his problems, both mechanically and mentally, and become a good, if not outstanding major league pitcher, it would give the Mets one of the better, younger rotations in the league, with Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Kennedy all holding down jobs for the next several years. Hard to imagine a lot of long losing streaks surviving that kind of rotation.

So, would this deal ever get done?

First, when is the last time the Mets and Yanks got together for a deal? I believe it was for the venerable Mike Stanton and a Yankee minor leaguer, not exactly a game changer right there. The Yanks and Mets fight for fans, coverage, back page spots. Do you honestly believe either one of them would take the chance on such a deal? Imagine if the Mets trade Beltran to the Yanks for Cano and Kennedy and Cano remains a .270 hitter with only marginal power and a disturbing lack of passion for the game. Now imagine that Kennedy doesn't "learn" how to harness an 87 MPH fastball and make that work in the bigs and either doesn't make the MLB team or only produces on a Darrell Rasner level. The Mets would be absolutely crucified. They would be run out of their new building. Omar Minaya would be shipped off to Baghdad, whether he joined the army or not. It would be devastating.

Now, flip it around. Imagine the Yanks make the deal, Beltran comes over, plays his Bobby Abreu style baseball, where passion is limited and mistakes multiple, and Cano blossoms into Robby Alomar and Kennedy turns into a viable #3 pitcher? You think there would be a sign or two at the new Stadium expressing the Yankee fan's distress?

Plus, why would the Mets trade Beltran off another terrific season for Cano and Kennedy, both of whom are coming off of terrible years? While Cano's offense is solid for a second baseman, even on a down year, a second baseman is always easier to replace than a big time center fielder. Beltran's stats are more valuable at his position than Cano, even though Cano could become one of the most impactful players at his position. Perhaps the deal makes sense if the Mets were convinced Cano could duplicate Beltran's numbers, considering he is 6 years younger, but how could anyone in Queens be convinced of that off of this past year? Beltran would simply have to have his "normal" year to help the Yanks while Cano would have to take a quantum leap back towards prominence. And you can like Kennedy all you want, nothing in his arsenal suggests he will ever be anything other than a marginal pitcher in the bigs.

This deal WON"T happen. No chance. Zero.

Which probably means they are working out the finer points as we speak.

The other rumor out there right now is Jake Peavy to the Yanks for a package.

Peavy's stats make him one of the best young pitchers in the game, with a lifetime 3.25 ERA, a history of durability (no major injuries, just minor trips to the DL) and a bulldog type of mentality that is so cherished by teams these days. This past season Peavy only pitched 174 innings and won 10 games for a horrible Padres team, but his ERA was under 3, he had only 59 walks in nearly 180 innings, and while his strike outs per 9 were down a little, it was still an impressive ratio. Plus, his ERA in July, August and September was 2.98, and it was only that high because of two bad outings where he gave up 5 runs twice.

In order to get Peavy, the Yanks would almost assuredly have to give up Phil Hughes. Now, Cashman and the Yanks were reticent about giving up Hughes last year for Johan Santana, so it is hard to believe that the Yankee brass would be more willing to talk about such a deal in regards to Peavy, but let's look at why they may consider such a trade. First, a lot of people, including Hank Steinbrenner, have publically questioned whether the non-move for Santana was the right thing to do, with most believing it was not. If Hughes were the main sticking point in a deal for Peavy, would Cashman and other Hughes supporters be able to fend off Hank and his Tampa contingent this time around? It seems unlikely.

Also, Hughes has shown a disturbing trend towards injury, and while his youth makes such a trend less of a concern, the Yanks don't want to end up with their own personal Mark Prior. Money also plays a factor in these decisions. Cashman has insisted that the price tag for Santana, in terms of talent and money, was just too high. With Peavy, the 27-year-old former CY Young award winner is signed through 2012 for an incredibly reasonable price. Peavy will be owed $11 million next year, $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011 and $17 million in 2012. Think about that. One of the best pitchers in baseball would essentially cost the Yanks what would amount to a Carl Pavano-esque contract. Peavy would also certainly come cheaper than say AJ Burnett, who is reportedly looking for a 5-year deal averaging about $15 million per year.

Trading for Peavy would also provide the Yanks with enough financial flexibility to still pursue their free agent targets. $52 million over 4 years, with a $22 million option for 2013, wouldn't be an obstacle if the yanks wanted to pursue CC Sabathia. Imagine the Yanks walking into next season with Sabathia, Peavy, Wang, Chamberlain and Pettitte as their starting five? You would be hard pressed to find one better in all the majors, and the team's top four would all be under 30. Not too shabby.

Now, why would the Yanks and Padres NOT do this deal?

First, it is unclear what the Padres would want in return for Peavy. You would assume Hughes would be a must, but the Padres have good some good arms, including Chris Young. What the team seems to desperately need is position players and potential impact offensive talent. The only player the Yanks have in the system that seems to fit that profile is Austin Jackson, and it is hard to imagine the Yanks giving both he and Hughes up in the same package.

Also, while Peavy is certainly one of the premier pitchers in the game, you COULD make the case that, given a little maturity and seasoning, Hughes could attain Peavy status. Santana (and Sabathia for that matter) were unique in that they are young, power pitching lefty handers with playoff experience and Cy Young awards to back them up. Plus, both spent the majority of their careers in the AL, so the East wouldn't be a shock to the system. Hughes showed renewed stuff at the end of the season this year, throwing harder with a sharper curve and a very good cutter that seemed to keep hitters off balance. If he stays healthy, the Yanks could make the case that Hughes and Peavy are very similar, and Peavy's lack of AL experience is a huge factor to overcome. The Yanks have been burned by former NL pitchers coming to the AL before and have been reluctant to go down that road.

Finally, while the Yanks certainly must address pitching, it is obvious they need significant help on the field as well. It is hard to imagine the Yanks having enough faith in Brett Gardner to hand him center field next year and Brian Cashman has already gone on record stating that he wants a first baseman that can play the position every day, which would seem to end the Jason Giambi era. The Yanks will certainly make a play for Mark Teixiera, trying to fill that void using only money, but if they can't, it would seem the Yanks will be forced to use some prospects to address either center or first with a big bat. Would it make more sense to throw money at Sabathia, Burnett and Derek Lowe and hope to land two of the three, keeping all their prospects in tact to deal for a bat? That's a possibilty.

In the end, I have a feeling the Yanks are still committed to Hughes for the long term and are looking to fill most of their holes with some big contract offers. I could see Sabathia and Burnett coming, the Yanks making a trade for a solid yet unemarkable first baseman, and handing center over to Brett Gardner with the hope that, if he doesn't succeed, outfield prospect Austin Jackson could be ready for promotion at some point in 09. I think big trades involving big prospects will pretty much be out of the question, but I believe the Peavy rumors are worth keeping an eye on. If the Yanks are going to be willing to trade Hughes for anyone, it might just be for Peavy given his age and contract status.