What if, God forbid, the Yankees do not sign another big bat to move in to the everyday lineup next year? What is Teixeira and Manny sign elsewhere and potential trades fall by the wayside? What then?
Listening to fans these past few weeks, you would think the Yanks would be relagated to "also rans" for the next 20 years. "They need a bat" you hear everyone screaming. "Fine, they got the pitching, but you HAVE to be able to score runs to win" has been the favorite lament and, for the sake of full disclosure, I admit to being one of those fans believing that another stick under the Christmas tree this year would be just what the doctor ordered.
But let's face facts folks, it doesn't seem all that likely the Yanks are gonna make a play for another big position player. The team has offered little that would make you think they are willing to truly dive head first in to the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, have yet to make Manny Ramirez any kind of an offer, despite the rumors, and haven't appeared on the radar of any potential trades except for Mike Cameron, who appears ready to stay put in Milwaukee (thank the Lord).
That means, ladies and gentlemen, the 2009 Yankee's lineup will be constructed out of the players currently on the roster.
Now, as I said before, I have been worried about this offense and would still LOVE to see The Cash Man bring in another bat, but even if that doesn't happen, I choose to take a very positive view of this offense and believe that, yes, even as constructed right now, it could produce more than it did last year.
Why?
I'll give you a bunch of reasons, starting with a healthy Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui. While everyone has focused on the Yankees losing Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, they have failed to mention how much of a plus those two players, back and ready to produce, will be for the 09 season. Last year, the Yankees were forced to survive with Jose Molina as their every day catcher, adding Ivan Rodriguez at the deadline. While the defense was solid, the offense was sadly lacking, with neither Molina nor Pudge offering much in the way of punch. Contrast that with a NORMAL year from Posada (.275 25, 95, .380 OBP) and the Yanks stand to see their catcher position significantly improve this year, even if Posada's numbers are a little bit down from their average.
Matsui? Well, Godzilla might be a bit harder to predict, but remember, the last time Hideki was healthy and played significant games (2007) he put up a .285 25, 103 with a .377 OBP. Again, perhaps he doesn't reach his NORMAL year, but even a small decrease in those numbers make him a very, very valuable addition to the lineup.
If one so chose (as I do now), one could argue that the ADDITION's of a healthy Posada and Matsui cancels out the loss of Abreu and Giambi. It is essentially a wash.
Now couple that with this fact: not one Yankee position player had what you could consider a standout year, and almost all of the BIG players had what you would consider to be subpar performances. Derek Jeter missed 12 games, only scored 88 runs, only posted 179 hits, and saw every one of his statistical categories take a major hit. The Yankee shortstop is due to put up a much more NORMAL year than that, which should see him close to 200 hits, 40 doubles, 100 runs, and a better OBP. Johnny Damon had a very nice year, one the Yanks would like to see again, but my contention is, with Damon on a walk year, you may be ready to see a much more motivated and healthy Johnny than you have in a long time. Damon has talked openly about wanting to return with the Yanks after his contract expires and has even quipped with reporters that he wants to give Cashman "a reason to bring me back." The Yankees would take another .303 year with 71 RBI and nearly 30 steals out of the leadoff spot, but my gut tells me he eclipses all of those stats.
Of course, the big third baseman is always a hot topic of conversation in Yankee land, but even A-Rod's biggest supporters would have to admit that his pronounced struggles with runners in scoring position last year was a HUGE problem for the team. The numbers, as usual, were still there (over .300 average, 30+ homers, 100+ RBI) but he only played in 138 games (much like Jeter, he was nagged by injuries all year long) and one would expect that A-Rod can produce much closer to his MVP-caliber seasons than his down year last year.
So, in addition to a healthy Posada and Matsui, I believe you can expect better years out of the Yankee's three best players, which will improve the offense dramatically.
Then, perhaps the biggest piece to the puzzle, quite honestly, is Robbie Cano. Cano has the talent to ascend to a position of authority on this team and join Damon, Jeter and A-Rod as the cogs in the engine. If the second baseman is able to reassert himself, the Yanks will essentially be replacing a .270 hitter with 14 dingers and 71 RBI with a .320 hitter with 20+ power and 100 RBI potential. That's a deal ANYONE would make right now, don't you think? I sure do. The way it looks right now, Cano will be asked to take a huge step up in the lineup (perhaps right behind A-Rod in the 5 hole) and that will make it VITAL that he be the budding star rather than the fading light he looked like last year.
So, if Damon, Jeter, A-Rod, and Cano can all be expected to have better years this year, and Posada and Matsui can stay healthy and come close to their normal numbers, that would mean the Yanks only need their other players to perform at an average level, providing professional hitter years. One would HAVE to believe they could accomplish such a mission.
Last year, Xavier Nady batted .305 with 25 homers and 97 RBI, with a .357 OBP and a .510 SLG. Now, let's assume that Nady's numbers were a bit high. Let's take him down one notch. Even doing that, Nady should be able to provide a .280 average or better with 20+ homer power and the chance, in a good lineup, to drive in 90+ RBI. Those numbers don't seem to be that much off what the Yanks got from Bobby Abreu, does it? And how about Nick Swisher? The Yanks got him off of a terrible year. His normal year? .260 average, 28 homers, 86 RBI, .370 OBP. Again, not that much off of what Giambi gave at the office last year and his defense is sure to eclipse what the big bumbler was able to do. The same could be said of Nady who will more than likely not slink from the wall like Abreu in right.
The question mark will be center field and, quite honestly, none of us can know exactly what to expect from a competition between Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner. Both could produce, both could bust, or one could distance himself in a talent race in the spring. Offering up a prediction is almost useless at this point because it would be based on nothing but conjecture. But, if the option is a risk/reward scenario with Gardner and/or Melky and a "you know what you're gonna get" situation with the likes of Mike Cameron, I am willing to take my chances on the risk, aren't you?
Anyway, if I were putting together the Yankee lineup, and also handing out full-season stats, here's how I would divy everything up: Damon, LF (.310, 22, 75), Jeter, SS (.326, 15, 88), Swisher, 1B (.267, 31, 108), A-Rod, 3B (.318, 46, 134), Cano, 2B (.293, 25, 102), Posada, C (.271, 21, 84), Matsui, DH (.287, 21, 81), Nady, RF (.279, 23, 73), Gardner, CF (.271, 1, 40).
If they got that kind of production out of that lineup, considering their new starting pitching and the improved defense, I would give the Bombers a pretty good shot at winning a whole lotta games, wouldn't you?
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