Looking ahead, for the heck of it

Trust me, I get it.

The Yankees are tied for first place in the AL East and for the best record in baseball.
If you had to rank the likely World Series winner at this point in the season, you'd be hard pressed to slide anyone ahead of the Bombers.
Long story short, there is a whole heck of a lot to be interested in this season, like:
Will Andy Pettitte come back healthy?
How are the Yankees going to handle Phil Hughes and his innings limit in the midst of a pennant race?
Will AJ Burnett and Javier Vazquez find some consistency or continue to struggle?
Will Derek Jeter end the season on an up note, salvaging some of what has been his worst season as a professional?
Will Joba Chamberlain, Dave Robertson, and Kerry Wood make for a sturdy bridge to Mariano Rivera?
Will Joe Girardi's tendency to over manage cost the Yankees in September of the playoffs?
There are 40 plus games on the schedule that will help answer all of those questions.
Now, however, is right smack dab in the middle of August. These are the dog days. Pitchers have dead arm. Hitters seem to be slumping. Guys are getting rest, even when they might not need it. Everyone seems a little dinged up. What better time than to take the MAJOR leap forward and start to look at next year's roster. Who will be back, who will be gone, and who will be coming in. We'll take it position by position, looking at the starters, what chance they would be back, and who might replace them if their Yankee days are numbered.

First Base – Mark Teixeira
Chance of returning: 100%
This is as certain as it gets with the Yankees. He has a huge contract, so even if you wanted to move him, you can't. But, trust me, you don't want to move him. Teixeira is having a down year by his standards and is still on pace for very good run-production numbers. He shed the first three months of the season, where he fluctuated between mediocre and God-aweful, and has been one of the Yankees best hitters through the summer. Add on the fact that he is a gold glover at first and Tex will be a Yankee for a long, long time.
Possible replacement: No one.

Second Base – Robinson Cano
Chance of returning: 100%
Again, like Teixeira, this is a no-brainer. Cano has cooled off a little since his torrid start, and talk of him winning an MVP or batting title has subsided, but he is still unquestionably the best second baseman in the American League and probably only Chase Utley (when healthy) is comparable through the entire majors. And, he still has room to improve. You don't normally get the type of middle-of-the-lineup production Cano
produces from your second baseman, and the Yankees won't let go of their superstar middle infielder for anything.
Possible replacement: No one.

Short Stop – Derek Jeter
Chance of returning: 100%
Yes, he is having the worst statistical year of his career. There is no reason to even run down the numbers. Everything, across the board, is down, except maybe his defense.
Yes, he turned 36 this year and many players see their careers come to a quick and abrupt end around this time of life. Baseball might be a tough too fast for the Hall of Famer at this stage of the game.
Yet, we all know Jeter will be back in a Yankee uniform next season, and there are three very good reasons why: First, Jeter is iconic. You can make the argument that he is the most popular Yankee since Mickey Mantle, maybe even Joe Dimaggio. He remains one of the most marketable athletes in the world and that, in and of itself, makes any large contract for Jeter more than economically for the Yankees. There isn't a person in the front office, from Cashman on down, that wants to be remembered for letting Derek Jeter finish his career in another uniform.
Second, while the Yankees are paying A-Rod millions for each home run milestone, the true chase will be next year when Jeter rapidly approaches 3,000 hits. Right now, he is 14 away from 2,900 for his career. Considering there are 40 games to go, you can at least assume Jeter to average around a hit a game. That would put him at 2,926, or 84 hits away from the magic number. While home runs have been stained by the steroid era, 3,000 hits remains a magic number and a guaranteed place holder in the Hall. Add in the fact that no Yankee has ever gotten 3,000 hits and it will make his run that much more interesting and special.
Third, and finally, Jeter deserves a mulligan. Even Ty Cobb had a really bad year during his career. Granted, Jeter's age, and the wear and tear on his body after so many games over so many years, makes it more likely this is a downward trend rather than a bump in the road, he deserves the chance to prove he can rise to his level one or two more times before he calls it quits. He has been a great Yankee for 15 years. He has earned that right.
Possible replacement: No one.

Third Base – Alex Rodriguez
Chance of returning: 100%
Like Jeter, there are warning signs associated with A-Rod. He is 35. He is a step slower. His power numbers are way off, even with his three-homer explosion the other night. After years of being a iron man on the field, he is becoming more and more banged up. Yet, A-Rod is still a feared power hitter who drives in runs and keeps the wheels of the Yankee offensive machine churning. He still gives the Yankees both power and speed out of their fourth-place hitter, and he can devastate a game like no one else.
Also, like Jeter, A-Rod has been too good for too long not to throw this year out as an “oh well, it happens” kinda season and expect a bounce-back next year.
And, who are we kidding, even if the Yankees were desparate to get rid of Rodriguez, his contract (what's that for, 100 years?) makes it an impossibility.
Possible replacement: No one.

Catcher – Jorge Posada
Chance of returning: 30%
Before you start stomping up and down, screaming about how stupid it is to assume that Jorge will not be coming back, understand that the 30% represented what I believe to be Posada's chances of playing as the Yankee everyday catcher next year. I know Jorge is coming back, but I believe that, at this point, he will be coming back as the DH.
Look, it's no secret that most of the pitchers prefer to see someone else behind the plate. His defensive skills, never Johnny Bench-esque to begin with, have become woefully inadequate, and not just in terms of throwing baserunners out. He has a hard time blocking balls in the dirt, has had an inordinate number of passed balls and wild pitches scoot by this season, and the position just bangs the heck out of him. He still has a really good bat, one that remains important to the Yankee offense, but playing behind the plate doesn't do he, or the team, any good going forward.
Possible replacement: Jesus Montero
I just can't see the Yankees trading Montero this offseason, or keeping him down in the minors for another season. Yes, he started off very slowly, but he has been absolutely on fire the last month and a half of the season, devastating AAA pitching. This kid seems to be the real deal, a legit offensive superstar. As far as his catching skills, I can't comment on that, nor can most people because they haven't watched him day-to-day. He supposedly has a cannon for an arm and can call a good game. A lot of the criticisms have been about his size, but Joe Mauer is a big guy, as is Matt Wiener, and both of them seem to be turning out just fine. Montero could be just what the doctor ordered for the team offensively while continueing to progress under the tutelage of a veteran catcher at the major league level.

DH – Lance Berkman
Chance of returning: 10%
I don't see the Big Puma coming back to the Yankees after this season. He hasn't done very well since coming over but I have to believe someone out there will believe in Berkman and his home run potential enough to offer more than a Nick Johnson-esque one year, $5 option. Plus, I think the Yankees will be looking to slide someone else in there come next year.
Possible replacement: Jorge Posada

Right Field – Nick Swisher
Chance of returning: 90%
Swisher is just shy of 30, is cheap, has a few more years left on his contract, plays a good right field, and is having his best offensive year overall. So, why would the Yankees ever think about getting rid of him?
The truth is, I can't imagine Swishalicious going anywhere. He has become a fan favorite and, quite frankly, when you look at his numbers compared with other players at that position, he is more than holding his own.
But, Swisher is also not Teixeira or Cano (superstar caliber), nor is he Jeter or A-Rod (iconic legends). So, because of that, Swisher is only a 90% return kinda guy because, while he is likely to stay put, he isn't untouchable and the Yankees have proven over the years that, if you aren't untouchable, you are very much replaceable.
Possible replacement: No one jumps to mind, but, if the Yankees were to make a move it would have to be for a guy that trumps Swisher in all categories. Since no one really appears on the horizon in terms of free agency that fits such a description, you would have to think it would only be for an upgrade.

Center Field - Curtis Granderson
Chance of returning: 80%
I thought the Granderson trade was the steal of the offseason, but the Grandy Man has had a.......well......it's been a bad year. His average against lefties could only go up from the .174 he was hitting last year, but his just above .200 mark isn't exactly impressing the stat heads. Also, a lot of people thought, after Granderson smacked 30 homers playing half his games in the cavernous Comerica Park in Detroit, that 40 was a distinct possibility once he saw that short right porch in the Bronx. That, like so much else, hasn't materalized.
Yet, Granderson is a terrific center fielder, has provided some of the only speed on the team, and, since reworking his mechanics with Kevin Long, has been on a tear.
Granderson's year puts him on the "maybe" list of guys who could be moved in the right deal. He hasn't lived up to the potential, but who else are the Yankees going to get? Plus, with his new swing and new confidence, Granderson is poised to finish the year strong and one would have to feel confident he would bounce back next year with a much more Granderson-esque season.
Possible replacement: Brett Gardner
I could see this happening if the Yankees dealt Granderson away and brought in another left fielder. That would put Gardner back at his natural position in center. However, I don't buy this as happening. I think Granderson gets another shot at this. He has too much talent, too much potential, and I don't think you mix and match yet again, even off of a disappointing year.

Left Field – Brett Gardner

Chance of returning: 50%
Gardner is perhaps the hardest regular Yankee on which to get a read. Let's assume for a second that Granderson is back, and that Gardner does not simply make a move in positions. It comes down to whether the Yankees want to go into next season, and perhaps beyond, with His Grittiness in the outfield.
Reasons why Gardner will be back: he has had a very nice year with the bat, has gotten a lot of big hits for the team, has played very good defense in the outfield, and, with the aging legs of both Jeter and A-Rod, Gardner and Granderson real provide the only speed on the team, with Gardner being the only exceptionally fast player on the squad.
Reasons why Gardner will be gone: his good year has also ensured that he would be a valuable trade chip if the Yankees needed another player (especially a pitcher) and couldn't do it via free agency, his numbers have dropped off somewhat at the end of the year which could mean a late-season swoon might be in the making (not the type of last impression you want to make on your team), and he is playing the position of a guy a lot of people, including the Yankees, might covet in the off season (we'll talk about him in a minute).
If this were my team, Gardner would be back, but he fits the bill of the type of player always seemingly available in the Yankee system: good enough to warrant interest from other teams, not good enough to be a star so always on the chopping block.
Gun to my head, I say he is back.
Possible replacement: Carl Crawford
Crawford, finishing up his final year with the Tampa Bay Rays, will be a free agent. He has said as much and the team has all but admitted they don't plan to retain him (don't get me started on what a waste of a team it has become to allow a franchise to remain in Tampa). He is a better player than Gardner, pure and simple. He can steal the same amount of bases, hit for more power, hit for a higher average, and play just as good a left field. He also is still in his prime (29 years old) and buying in on guys who are proven but just entering their peak years (Teixeira, Swisher, CC Sabathia) has proven to work out well for the Yanks the last few years.
So, why would the Yanks pass?
A couple of reasons; first, the Yankees don't need a huge infusion of power into the lineup. They get A+ power numbers from first, second, third, and have the potential to get more out of center and short, if both guys have bounce-back years. Swisher in right provides plenty, himself, and Posada at DH is still capable of 20 or more homers, as might be youngster Montero, if given a chance. If you take the power away, Gardner and Crawford are much closer players. Second, while Crawford is one of the best players around right now, he plays a very aggressive, physical style, and has been doing so at the major league level for a while. His speed, which makes an exceptional player, might not last for much longer. Third, and perhaps most importantly, I don't believe the Yankees are going to splurge on two high-priced free agents and I honestly believe their focus will be on pitching. They are going to have a bigger need for it come next season. While Crawford, any way you shake it, would be an upgrade over Gardner, it would count more as a want rather than a need.
Because of that, I believe the Yankees pass on Crawford (who might end up in Boston) and go after another lefty ace in free agency, whose name may rhymn with knee.

Starting pitchers – CC Sabathia
Chance of returning: 100%
He is the ace of the staff and one of the best in the business. Rather than being scared off by the short Yankee Stadium porch in right field, he has made his home ballpark a true advantage, becoming almost unbeatable in the Bronx. He is a workhorse, has what seems to be a rubber arm, and gets better the bigger the moment. And, as Johan Santana struggles a bit with the Mets over in Queens, it looks like Brian Cashman may have made the right choice in passing on a trade for that lefty pitcher and, instead, targeting the big man.
Possible replacement: No one

Phil Hughes
Chance of returning: 100%
Of the three young starters the Yankees touted a few years ago (Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy) Hughes has turned out to be the most productive. While it still remains to be seen if Hughes will be the ace-quality starter he was in the early part of 2010, or the middle-of-the-rotation guy he has appeared to be for much of the rest of the season, his age, his price tag, his overall health, and his maturation in the system already, makes him a lock to be back next year.
Possible replacement: No one.

AJ Burnett
Chance of returning: 95%
This is probably 100%, but the Yankees might get so frustrated with Burnett and his on-again, off-again outing that they might be willing to eat most of his contract to get him off the roster. Yet, even though the Yankees are the only team in baseball capable of doing something like that, it is highly, highly unlikely. Burnett, after this season, has three more years left on what now seems like a odious $85 million contract. Who would be dumb enough to take that on, even if the Yankees were picking up most of the bill? The answer is no one.
Plus, on the positive side, Burnett remains one of the most talented throwers in the game and is perfectly capable of pitching a gem, or getting on a roll towards the end of the year and being one of the team's best performers. Because of that, it is highly unlikely the Yankees would be willing to part company.
Possible replacement: Ivan Nova
I personally believe the Yankees will look to add two new pitchers this offseason already (which I'll explain in a moment) so, if they traded Burnett, I think they would keep it cheap and promote from within. Nova is having an excellent year at AAA and would be in line to get a chance at the number 5 spot in the rotation.

Andy Pettitte
Chance of returning: 30%
If you had asked me this question eight weeks ago, I would have told you this percentage would be at about 80%. However, Pettitte, who has flirted with retirement for what seems like a decade straight now, always said he would pitch as long as he was healthy. Well, he was healthy all last year and through the All Star break this year. Now, however, he seems to be dealing with a groin injury that won't go away and the veteran lefty has shown real frustration when speaking about his rehab. Even if Pettitte comes back and pitches well at the end of the season, his current injury is probably enough to keep him from trying it again next year. At his age, the body might be telling him to shut it down.
Possible replacement: Ted Lilly, Joba Chamberlain
The Yankees were rumored to be interested in their former left handed pitcher at the trade deadline but backed away. As a free agent, and a little older, Lilly could be a nice stop-gap for either a youngster in the minors or another free agent pitcher down the road. He's a left hander, has pitched in New York and the ÅL East in the past, and would probably be amenable to coming back to where it all started for him. As far as Chamberlain, it is a possibility only in a pinch, in my opinion, but it is an option. The Yankees spent a lot of time “building” his arm up last year and he has remained injury free this season, albeit in the pen. I think they would look to keep him in his current role, but, if they needed to, he could be swung back into the rotation.

Javier Vazquez
Chance of returning: 3%
I don't have a lot of faith that Javy is coming back to the Yanks. His return has been okay but not triumphant. He is still shaky in the big game and he isn't exactly a fan favorite. Plus, Javy is going to be 35 and his stuff, including his velocity, has seemed to be down this year from even last year. Considering his track record would probably be enough to command a larger contract, both in terms of money and years, than the Yankees are willing to give up, it's hard to imagine the Vazquez experiment lasting more than a season.
Possible replacement: Cliff Lee
Is there a worse secret in baseball than that Cliff Lee wants to be a Yankee and the Yankees want Cliff Lee?The Bombers had a deal in place this trade deadline to bring Lee to the Bronx in exchange for Jesus Montero, so you know they are serious. Sabathia, who is one of Lee's best friends, has also not been very couy when asked whether Lee will want to sign with the Yankees come this winter. I think the Yankes, with Pettitte and Vazquez coming off the books, will have one big contract splash in them, and Lee, still only 31 and one of the best in the game, will be wearing pinstripes next season.

Closer – Mariano Rivera
Chance of returning: 100%
Unless Rivera wants to walk away after this year, he is coming back.
Forget the contract. Like Jeter, there is no way anyone is letting Rivera walk in the twilight of his career to another team. He will be back and, unless shown otherwise, will be just as good as always.
Possible replacement: No one.

Couple of notes here: I didn't tackle the bench players at all because they are fairly expendable. I doubt Austin Kearns comes back, wouldn't be surprised if Marcus Thames has a second go-around, and think that Pena would probably be back as your jack of all trades in the infield. Francisco Cervelli is an interesting case as his situation will be determined by how committed the Yankees are to Posada as their everyday DH, and how much rope they give a kid like Montero. As far as the pen, the only really interesting guys are Joba and Kerry Wood. I can't see the Yanks giving up on Robertson, although, if he were requested in a deal the Yankees desperately wanted, I doubt it would be a breaker, and I think Boone Logan might have secured a chance to be that lefty reliever the Yankees like to have. With Wood and Joba, I think Wood is gone, only because someone will offer him a closer roll, and I think Joba stays, although he will be offered in the right deal. In the end, Joba's talent is still enough to keep the Yanks coming back for more.