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Saturday, December 18

Who could the Yankees actually get in a trade?

The Lohud Yankee Blog had a good post this morning where they looked at the top of the rotation type guys on each team and tried to decide if any of them would be available. As you can imagine, on almost all the top-flight guys, the answer was a resounding "NO." But, I think all of us Yankee fans fully expect that the team is going to have to look at second-tier players rather than high-end guys, at least at this stage of the game. So, instead of talking about pitchers the Yankees wouldn't be able to pry away from their current team, let's look at guys that might be available.
This is a very short list of guys that might be available on teams that might deal with the Yankees. Most have flaws, most have high-end rewards. It all depends on what the other team wants, and what the Yanks are willing to give up.

Fausto Carmona (Cleveland Indians) - Carmona has probably been the most prominent name mentioned when it comes to possible trade chips. He's 27, has $5 million coming to him next year, is locked up through 2014 for a very reasonable price, and put up a good year last season with a 3.77 ERA. Any Yankee fan worth his or her salt remembers Carmona from 2007, when he dominated the Yankees, ended Joe Torre's tenure in New York, and looked like a special pitcher that was just coming into his own. If you take 2007 and 2010 and combine them, they tell the story of a top-caliber pitcher who throws a hard sinker, ala Cien Mien Wang, only with a few more strikeouts. The problem is the two years inbetween.
In 2008 and 2009, Carmona was, to put it mildly, ineffective. He was even sent down to the minors at one point to try and figure things out. His good is very good, his bad is very bad.
So, if the Yankees were to inquire about Carmona, there would be a natural tug of war between they and the Indians. On the one hand, the Yankees would be reluctant to give up top-quality prospects for a guy that has as many terrible years as good years to his name as a starter. Can you imagine how much justifiable venom would be directed at Brian Cashman if he traded, say, Austin Romine and another player for Carmona and, in two years, Carmona was pitching to a 5 ERA and Romine was doing his best Buster Posey imitation? Not fun times.
On the flip side, however, the Indians are in need of good players, are in the middle of rebuilding, have a young, affordable pitcher coming off a very good year. Why in the world would they hand the Yanks this guy for, say, a few second-tier prospects, or even high-risk, high-reward guys like Joba Chamberlain?
Carmona only makes sense for the Yankees if the cost is reasonable, because there is too much of a risk that he reverts back to 2009 numbers. But, it might not make sense for the Indians to trade a 27-year old pitcher with good talent off a top year for a "reasonable" price.

Gavin Floyd (Chicago White Sox) - Here is another name you've heard bantered around. I am still unclear as to why the White Sox, who picked up Adam Dunn and seem to believe they can make a run this season, would trade Floyd, but the rumors have been persistent enough to make you believe there is some fire near the smoke.
I like Floyd a lot. He's 27, like Carmona, owed only $2.7 million this year, had a 4.08 ERA last year, and ever since he was made a full-time starter three years ago, that's been about his norm. A lot of people thought Floyd would be a top-end of the rotation guy, so maybe the White Sox willingness to trade him stems as much from disappointment that he hasn't reached that full potential as it does from anything else. But, if the Yankees could secure him, he would give them a viable #3 starter and, at 27, a guy who could be a fixture in the rotation for years. And, at 27, there is still a possibility that he can fulfill his potential. Maybe different scenery could help.
Yet, the question as always is, what, exactly, are you looking to give up? Would the White Sox demand an Austin Romine, or a top-end pitcher? Maybe they would be interested in Chamberlain as either a reliever or a starter, as a part of a package, or course. They need some help up the middle, so maybe the Yankees could entice them with an Eduardo Nunez? For a guy like Floyd, you really couldn't justify top prospects, but some second-tier guys might be able to do it.

Jonathan Sanchez (San Francisco Giants) - No rumors have circulated about Sanchez, but if the Giants are looking to upgrade offensively, Sanchez might give them the best option to secure some hitters without giving up one of their prized pitchers in Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, or youngster Madison Bumgardner. Why would the Yankees want him? Well, he's 28, makes $2 million, had a 3.07 ERA last year, is a lefty with strikeout stuff, and pitched almost 200 innings last season. He also had, for the most part, a good postseason and helped the Giants win a title.
Why would the Giants trade him? As I said before, Sanchez, because of the Giants depth of pitching, is expendable if they want to bring back a good hitter. The Giants won last year with great pitching and timely hitting. Problem is, that timely hitting isn't always going to be there, especially when the guys playing the field have a less than impressive resume to their name. That offense was deemed to be lacking last year, when they started their magic carpet ride. It's hard to imagine they could conjure that kind of magic again. Trading Sanchez gives them the chance to get better offensively and stay at the top, pitching wise.
Why it wouldn't work? Well, again, who would the Giants want? Jesus Montero aint being traded for Jonathan Sanchez and the Giants already have Buster Posey behind the plate. Would the Yankees consider Nick Swisher in a deal? Doubtful. Would the Giants give him up for not-MLB-ready talent? Doubtful.
There is also the fact that Sanchez had a breakout year this year. Before this, he had been a hard-throwing disappointment who had about a 5 ERA, on average. Is Sanchez just coming into his own, or is he Oliver Perez? When there is a chance he could be Ollie, you probably wouldn't be comfortable trading top talent for him.

Anibal Sanchez (Flordia Marlins) - The Marlins aren't trading Josh Johnson, but Sanchez is an underrated young pitcher (26) who probably won't make an untouchable lists. He had a 3.55 ERA last year and was probably the team's second best pitcher.
I threw his name on here because, if the Yanks were going to make a deal for a Marlins pitcher, he makes sense for them over Johnson (unavailable) or Ricky Nolasco (no good) but, in reality, I would shocked if the Marlins would give him up. He's affordable, good, young - why would you trade him?

Scott Kazmir (Anaheim Angels) - This, to me, could be the most interesting guy. I have no idea of the Angels would be interested in trading him, but Kazmir is extremely talented, has pitched, and pitched well, in the AL East before, and is still only 26. He's owed $8 million and he's coming off a God-awful year where he had a 5.94 ERA and only pitched in 150 innings.
Here are the reasons to be turned off: he's had a lot of injury problems already and he might be just a 5 or 6 inning pitcher; he was bad last year, really bad; I have no idea what his medicals look like, or what affect those injuries have had on his velocity, the key to his success.
Here are the reasons to be intrigued: as everyone knows, when he is on, there is no more talented pitcher in baseball; he's a lefty; he has a GREAT track record against the Red Sox, especially in Fenway; you could get him cheap (if he's available) considering the risks that come along with him.
Everyone has mentioned Zambrano as high-risk, high reward, but Kazmir, to me, is just as intriguing because he doesn't make as much money, is younger, is a lefty, and is a proven winner in the AL East. And how great would it be for Kazmir to resurrect his career in New York with the Yankees, not the Mets?

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