It is astounding to think that we are a few days into January, 2009 right now and the rosters of so many teams are not even close to being set, isn't it? I mean, as of right now Manny Ramirez, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Derek Lowe, and Oliver Perez are still without a home? And I am sure I am forgetting a few guys on that list of free agents, not to mention the remaining possibility that a significant trade or two could be pulled off before spring training arrives (in a little more than a month, if you want to gauge how quickly time is flying right now). Tampa, like the Yankees and the Sox, also have some potential moves to make before the beginning of the season, obviously bouyed by their amazing run in 2008 and the plethora of young talent they have under control for the next several years.
There is a very good chance, in fact, that one of those hitters mentioned above will find a home in Tampa before the season starts. Would it be shocking to see Ken Griffey Jr., batting in the DH spot for the Rays next year on a one-year contract? Even though the kid is long since past being an elite player, he still has pow2er, can still hit, and is a better every-day option than Johnny Gomes.
But, for now, like my two previous preview posts, we'll take what they currently have and go from there.
Lineup - Akinori Iwamura (2B), Carl Crawford (LF), BJ Upton (CF), Carlos Pena (1B), Evan Longoria (3B), Matt Joyce (RF), Dioner Navarro (C), Johnny Gomes (DH), Jason Bartlett (SS).
The top five of this lineup have the potential to be lethal. Iwamura, Crawford, and Upton all have plus speed and Crawford and Upton can both hit 20+ homers. Pena has proven himself to a powerful bat and a perfect four-place hitter, and Longoria's upside is spectacular (there are many who believe he will be the best offensive player in the game before long). Navarro had a breakout season last year, batting over .300 and giving consistent offense from the catcher position all season long.
However, there are some obvious question marks: can Iwamura, Upton, and Longoria repeat their performance from last year? Remember, they were all essentially rookies (even though Iwamura is a Japan league veteran) andsecond-year players are prone to regression rather than big years. Longoria, especially, seemed to cool off a bit in the World Series.
Another question is how good Matt Joyce can be for this team? The Rays, who have terrific pitching talent, traded Edwin Jackson for Joyce on the belief that the lefty corner outfielder - another young guy - has the chance to be a power bat in their lineup. Joyce, last year for the Tigers, only played in 92 games and had 12 homers and 33 RBI. His SLG wasn't what you would like either (.450) from a guy you are tapping as a run-producer. But, he is only 24, already showed 20+ power, and is a great defender. Tampa has had a wonderful success rate in reading and then grooming talent. Only time will tell if they are right on Joyce as well.
Finally, unlike the Yankees or Red Sox, who are pretty set at the moment and simply looking to tweek their roster, the Rays, if they want to continue to repeat at a high level, must find a DH bat. Will they? As I said before, there are plenty of names out there that seem to be on the market for a small price tag. While Johnny Gomes had a nice season a few years ago, he is not the answer at that position. They need a Giambi or a Griffey-esque player - a veteran presence to help their team - before the season starts. If they get that, this lineup becomes an AL East monster on par (or potentially better) than the Sox or Yanks. Without that added bat, their bottom of the lineup could prove a real liability.
Defense - Dioner Navarro (C), Evan Longoria (3B), Jason Bartlett (SS), Akinori Iwamura (2B), Carlos Pena (1B), Matt Joyce (RF), BJ Upton (CF), Carl Crawford (LF).
This is by far the best defensive team in the East and could be the best in the entire league. It really doesn't serve any purpose to go down the list and extoll the virtues of each individual player. They are all excellent. The only question would be Joyce, given an entire season as a starter. Can Joyce join the ranks in the outfield? His skills would suggest he can, however, even if he can't, Upton has such range and ability it shouldn't really matter all that much. This team catches EVERYTHING.
Rotation - James Sheilds, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnestine, David Price.
Again, this is as talented a starting five as their is in the league. In fact, the only reason I would put the Yankee rotation ahead of the Rays is because Tampa starters have one HUGE, looming question to answer; can they repeat what they did last year? That is a tall order. Yes, they are talented, but they are all young and none of them, save Kazmir, has a track record that would indicate you can just write them down for repeat big years. Can Garza take his terrific postseason and parlay that into a great regular season? Can Sonnestine remain a stable, #3 type pitcher for this ball club? Can Kazmir stay healthy? Can Shields remain an ace-caliber pitcher? How will Price adjust to his first full season in the majors, especially given how high his own talent and postseason performance has set the bar?
Those are a lot of questions to answer, but there is no denying the pitching talent. If they all perform up to their standards, there isn't a soft spot in the rotation.
Bullpen - Troy Percival, Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, Chad Bradford, JP Howell, Jason Hammel.
This is the weak spot on the team, and what a weak spot. Percival has one more year left on his two-year contract, but it is anyone's guess as to whether he will actually be healthy enough to contribute. If Percival can't go, Wheeler would be the defacto closer, but as we saw last year when Joe Madden promoted David Price to that role for the playoffs, there isn't a lot of confidence that Wheeler is made for that kind of role.
Bradfor, Balfour, and Howell are all good arms, but with this pen, no lead is completely safe. My guess is the closer for this club is not currently listed on the roster right now and it will be interesting to see how they address that issue, no doubt turning to in house candidates since free agent options seem limited and risky.
The end result is that the Rays have a tremendous amount of talent and I fully expect them to be in the hunt for a playoff spot for the entire year. However, I just think there are some things going against Tampa that can't be ignored. First, they need another bat to solidify their lineup. Second, their bullpen looks like it could be a liability and there is no legit closer on the roster right now, unless you believe in the health of Percival (how could you?). Third, last year was a perfect year for this team in terms of health and performance. Can you honestly expect everyone to stay off the DL and performing at a high level AGAIN?
Great teams are able to keep their level of play up each year. Tampa could be that type of team, but even though the Rays answered all their questions last year, they still have to answer the knawing question of whether or not they were a fluke.
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