It is amazing to me how quickly people change their tune when it comes to sports. At the end of the baseball season, the popular song to sing in New York went something like this: "Boy, those Yankees, with their old players and their inept front office, are light years behind the Red Sox and Rays. It is gonna take them years to catch up, even if they flex their financial might this offseason." Everyone seemed to say that, not only were the Yankees likely to pursue both CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, but that they NEEDED to do it just to pull even with the two younger, better-run organizations they find themselves in competition with.
Now that they have done that, the Yankees have, in these same peoples' minds, "bought" a championship and pulled well ahead - with the help of their vast resources - of the poor, upstart Rays and those noble icons of baseball purity, the Boston Red Sox (whose own giant payroll doesn't seem to bother anyone).
So I thought, let's take a look at these teams as of now and see where they stack up. And, while we're at it, maybe a few other AL contenders deserve a once over as well.
The New York Yankees: Okay, like everyone else, I assume that the Yankees are going to make a few moves. One, I expect that they will find a partner for one of their outfielders. I don't expect the team to go in to next year with Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady all on the roster. Having said that, I have no idea which one they are going to be able to move or for what, so, for now, we are going to imagine that all of them will be there for opening day, just with a lot of moving around. Also, I still believe the Yanks are going to bring Andy Pettitte back eventually, so much so that, for the purpose of thise column, I am going to put Pettitte in as the fourth starter. If I am wrong? Well, it would make some difference but not enough to change the overall conclusions.
Lineup - Johnny Damon (CF), Derek Jeter (SS), Mark Teixeira (1B), A-Rod (3B), Jorge Posada (C), Robinson Cano (2B), Xavier Nady (RF), Hideki Matsui (DH), Nick Swisher (LF).
The major flaw in this defense would be speed. Damon, Jeter, and A-Rod all have pretty good speed, with Johnny still capable of stealing close to 30 bags a year, but besides those three there isn't much but station to station quickness. If the Yanks do trade a spare outfielder, it will more than likely open the door for Brett Gardner to enter the everyday lineup, which would provide that speed, but, for now, it is going to take some extra base hits to score most runs.
The obvious plus here is the top four. Damon, when healthy, has been very solid, and the rumors of Derek Jeter's demise as an offensive player have been greatly exaggerated (expect a very good year from the captain). Teixeira will, hopefully, put up his usual numbers and should see a rise in RBI commiserate with the increased talent around him. A lot of people have screamed about "protecting" A-Rod, but the fact is that Mr. Madonna's problems are almost all mental. Having a bat like Tex in there, no matter where, should provide that protection because it takes pressure off of his back.
If Posada is healthy, he slides nicely in to the five hole, and if Cano is truly back to his old ways, he needs to be put in a more run-producing slot. With Nady, Matsui, and Swisher, the Yanks would have three professional batters with pop and the ability to not only take a walk but also keep rallies going. The big innings started by the top of the lineup should be kept alive by the bottom.
Defense - Posada at catcher, A-Rod at third, Jeter at short, Cano at second, Tex at first, Nady in right, Damon in center, Swisher in left. This is an average defensive team with obvious question marks in center and at catcher. How Posada progresses will have a lot to say about the Yankee season, but mostly in regards to their defense. An average Posada, who can catch a good game and throw the occasional runner out at second would mean HUGE things for this team. But, if Posada is unable to recover from his season-ending labrum surgery and cannot provide adequate defense behind the plate, it is unclear exactly what the Yankees will do. Provided he can still hit, and considering that the only Yankee catching prospect, Jesus Montero, is at least a few years away from being MLB ready, the Yanks could decide to take their chance with a liability at that position. That could come back to haunt them.
The other major area of concern is center. If things remain as is, one would have to assume that Johnny Damon and/or Nick Swisher would be the Yankee's center fielder. I would guess that Damon would get first dibs on the position considering a.) he is quicker than Swisher and b.) much of Swisher's down year was blamed on the struggles he had in center. In fact, in a few interview after his trade to the Bronx, Swisher made it clear that his least desired position on the field was center.
Damon in center presents two problems. First, while he can still track balls down, his arm is a serious liability and teams will run on the Yankees whenever the hit sails in to center field. Second, Damon's health has, in many ways, been linked to center. The Yankees seem to believe that the position takes too much of a toll on his body. I would doubt they would want to play him at the position 140+ games.
On the corners, both Nady and Swisher are average defenders. Swisher is probably the more aggressive of the two, but Nady has the better arm, so he would be slotted to right.
The Yankees should get above average to great defense out of A-Rod, Cano, and Teixeira, all of whom have the ability to be gold-glove caliber defenders (yes, Cano has the athleticism to be that good, he just has to take pride in his defense and hustle on every play). Jeter's defense is always a hot topic for debate, but the fact is, last year he seemed to have one of his better defensive years and is still good enough to make short stop a non-issue in my opinion.
Rotation - CC Sabathia, Chien Mien Wang, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain.
Like I said, I am assuming that Pettitte is the fourth starter. If not, I would assume that Phil Hughes slides into that position. Yes, that could pose some problems, but overall the rotation is going to live and die on the arms of the big four regardless. So, what are the weaknesses in this rotation? Only one; durability.
No other rotation in baseball, in my opinion, can match the overall talent in this rotation. Sabathia is as skilled a lefty pitcher in the game, and, over the last two years, the only hurler who has been as impressive as he is Johan Santana. Burnett and Chamberlain have some of the most electric stuff in the game, with power arms that have the potential to dominate any lineup on any given day. And Wang, who seems to be the forgotten man right now, has been one of the better pitchers in the league, winning 19 games two straight years, and was on his way to a potential 20 wins in 2008 before injurin his foot. With his devastating sinker, he provides a terrific contrast and balance to the rotation.
Plus, with a rotation like this, one can imagine each one pushing the other, and a healthy rivalry existing that could allow each member to thrive.
But, how well will this rotation stand up to the rigors of the regular season?
Sabathia has pitched over 500 innings the last two years, and while the big lefty has shown little to no signs of being worn down, it has to be a concern. Burnett's injury problems are notorious and, despite his insistence that last year's 220 innings was no fluke but rather the result of a change in pitching philosophy, one will have to see him pitch back to back years like that to believe.
For Chamberlian, who will be on a strict inning's limit, two questions will be asked throughout the course of the season. First, can he gain better control over his stuff in order to limit the amount pitches he throws per inning? He can't continue to throw close to 100 pitches before the 7th inning and be successful on a consistent basis. Second, was the tendinitis in his shoulder last year a minor glitch in his career or a harbinger of health problems to come, ones that might force him back to the bullpen? Jorge Posada, in an interview with Michael Kay on his show Centerstage (do I owe community service to the state for having watched that show more than twice, by the way?) stated that he didn't believe Joba would last as a starter. Joba and the Yankees dismissed that notion. Who's right? We will see.
If Pettitte returns, he gives the Yanks a veteran presence in the rotation but, without him, the Yanks depth, a plus right now, would be challenged. However, if everyone stays healthy, it should be the best rotation in the league and perhaps baseball.
Bullpen - Mariano Rivera, Damaso Marte, Jose Veras, Brian Bruney, Phil Coke, Edwar Ramirez.
One of the real positives last year was the emergence of the bullpen as a real plus. Towards the end of the season some of the younger guys seemed to start to peeter out, however, Veras, Coke and Ramirez proved themselves to be extremely talented presences from both sides of the plate. Coke and Veras, especially, were dominating at times last year and could prove to be valuable long-term additions to the pen.
Bruney came back from injury and seemed to regain some of his early footing and Marte promises to show more, if used correctly, than he did in his short stint with the team last year. And then you have Mariano Rivera, the greatest reliever the game has ever seen (somewhere Goose Gossage threw up a little bit in his mouth, but the only one who thinks Goose was as good as Mo is, well, Goose). One day, Mariano Rivera is going to NOT be able to close games out, but it doesn't appear that moment is in site just yet. Having Mo in that anchor position gives the Yanks a HUGE advantage over almost every team in baseball.
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