So, you might have heard that the Yankees are a little thin when it comes to the starting rotation? Well, only if you think the upcoming spring training battle royale for the fourth and fifth starter spots between Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, the re-animated corpse of Mark Prior, Sergio Mitre, and any slightly inebriated bleacher creature who happens to show up early for a game in Tampa, won't result in World Series-caliber hurling. Ah, only a few days until pitchers and catchers. Catch the fever.
For two months, ever since Cliff Lee gave a big ol'Philidelphia-style middle finger to the Bronx, Yankee General Manager Brian Cashman has preached patience. There wasn't anything of great value out there to be had so sit back, relax, and see if anything crazy happened, like Felix Hernandez demanding to be traded only to the Yankees for Ramiro Pena and Francisco Cervelli.
But, nothing crazy did happen. No front-line starters materialized out of thin air and landed in Cashman's lap. As he collected scrap heap arms, like Garcia and Colon, the last best hope for a solid top-to-bottom rotation disappeared when Andy Pettitte decided the comforts of Houston were too much of a Siren song to ignore, and retired.
Cashman and the Yankees have said all the right things, but everyone involved has admitted that the rotation is weak. The problem isn't just with the backend. The problem is that, after CC Sabathia, there are a lot of “I don't knows” in the pitching staff.
Is Phil Hughes the 1.68 ERA fireballer he appeared to be out of the gate last season, or the over-5 ERA guy he was to the middle-end of the year? I don't know.
Can AJ Burnett ever harness his talent for even one season and put together a consistently brilliant campaign? Can he at least return to his heady 13-9, 4.07 ERA 2009 season form, or will he continue to sink under the weight of his own consistency? I don't know.
Will the Yankees ever allow one of their prized pitching prospects — Manny Banuleos, Andrew Brackman, and Dellin Betances — to take a stab at the rotation or will they keep them in the minors at all costs? Again, no clue.
When four-fifths of your rotation elicites a shoulder shrug anytime someone asks for a performance prediction, October seems like a long way off.
Sure, the lineup should be fine, with bounceback seasons possible for A-Rod, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Curtis Granderson, and the addition of Rafeal Soriano to an already formidable bullpen should shorten a lot of these games, but a team's success and failure usually rests on the arms of its starters, and that's where the least amount of certainty lies.
Enter the Minnesota Twins.
See, it was reported this week by the Minnesota Times-Tribune that the Twins are more than willing to part ways with lefty starter Francisco Liriano. The 26-year old starter will be a free agent after the 2012 season and, coming off a year when he posted 191 innings, 201 strikeouts, and a 3.62 ERA, the Twins, according to the article, feel like now would be the best time to deal their star pitcher.
The question is, would the Yankees jump into the fray?
Here are the positives:
*Liriano is a lefty with strikeout stuff, which has become even more valuable considering all the lefties Boston has asquired the last year.
*Liriano is still young, only 27-years old.
*Liriano pitched well against both the Yankees and Red Sox last year, though he was bombed in two starts at Fenway Park.
*Liriano still appears to be learning and, at 27, his best years may well be in front of him.
Here are the negatives:
*Liriano is still an injury risk, having suffered from arm problems in the minors, then requiring Tommy John Surgery after the 2007 season, forcing him to miss the entire 2008 campaign.
*Liriano has not been impressive in his postseason appearances.
*Liriano is looking for a multi-year extension, with the rumor being that he asked the Twins for a three year, $39 million contract ($13 million per year).
*The Twins believe Liriano is at the height of his value, so they would probably demand a lot in return.
That last “negative” is, to me, the most interesting. I'm not that concerned about Liriano's injury concerns. Several pitchers have had Tommy John Surgery, many early in their careers, and they haven't missed a beat. Liriano seemed to follow the progress of most pitchers off Tommy John: struggle through the first year back, excell in that second year. Plus, the Twins claim to be concerned about Liriano's health, yet just re-upped with Carl Pavano, who should have a shrine erected to him in the Injured Players Hall of Fame.
I'm also not that concerned about any extension for Liriano. First, he will only make $4.3 million this year and probably not a tremendous amount more than that in 2012. After that, he can become a free agent. If the Yanks bring him in and the lefty pitches well, they will be happy to pay him. If he pitches poorly, they can let him walk. If he pitches only so-so, then the Yanks could decide to bring him back, but have much more room to maneuveur away from a three year contract worth $13 million per.
No, to me the major question is not finances or injury concerns, it's prospect cost. What would the Twins want?
The strange thing is, the Twins are one of the more unique cases in all of baseball, as they don't need what the Yankees have in abundance. Almost every team with a player to trade will run to the Yankees because they have three top-quality catching prospects, a truly rare commodity in baseball. Jesus Montero is thought to be the top hitting prospect in the entire minor leagues, Austin Romine has been touted as a pure combination of hitting ability and defensive acumen, and some believe that Gary Sanchez, who hasn't played above A ball yet, might be the best of all of them.
Yet, the Twins have themselves the top catcher in major league baseball: Joe Mauer. He's young, durable, and getting a lot of money over a lot of years. If there is one team that doesn't need a catcher, it's Mauer.
That might not matter in the case of Montero. Many believe he is destined for another position, anyway. His size and somewhat shaky defensive skills have had many wondering whether anything from firstbase to DH is in his future.
Maybe the Twins take Montero, move him to DH or the outfield, and hope his bat translates the way so many believe. The question is, would the Yankees be willing, or be wise, to give up Montero?
I have a hard time believing that, as good as Liriano is, he is worth Montero. I wasn't willing to give up on Montero for Cliff Lee, let alone Liriano. With the question marks that surround him, I would be willing to give up a couple of A- guys, not A+ guys.
How about Andrew Brackman, Joba Chamberlain, and Eduardo Nunez? Brackman is a top pitching prospect, Chamberlain has a load of talent and could be a closer or a starter, and Nunez appears to be a solid option at short stop, a spot that is somewhat weak on the Twins right now. Would that do the job?
Considering that Liriano is not a sure thing, I think that is a somewhat fair deal. Chamberlain and Nunez are major league-ready right now. Brackman is another strong-armed lefty who could be up and ready to pitch at the major-league level by the end of the year.
The question is, what kind of premium would the Twins put on selling to the Yankees because, you know, they are the Yankees?
Even if the Yanks had the best offer on the table, would the Twins bite? Would they want to help strengthen a team they could conceivably face in the playoffs, a team that has handled them with ease in the past?
It might be that the Twins would demand Montero as a part of the deal to even consider the trade. The thinking might be that, if the Twins got a bat as potent as Montero then trading a potential top-of-the-rotation guy to a league rival would be palatable. Without that overpay, the Twins might be inclined to take a lesser deal from a less formidable foe, or ship him off to an NL team looking to improve their rotation (the Mets would be a prime candidate, except for the fact that they have nothing to give in a trade).
I think the Yankees would and should jump all over Liriano, if he becomes available. How much better does a rotation of Sabathia, Liriano, Hughes, Burnett, and Nova look? It takes pressure off everyone: Sabathia doesn't have to be perfect, Hughes doesn't have to be a top performer, Nova can progress naturally in the last spot in the rotation, and if Burnett comes back to form, wonderful, if not, it doesn't devastate your rotation. Also, that has a lot of potential for the future. Sabathia is 30, Liriano 27, Hughes 24, Nova 24. If Liriano stays healthy, Hughes and Nova progress, and the Yankees hit on one of their top pitching prospects, Burnett can essentially become an afterthought. In two years, you could have a rotation of Sabathia, Hughes, Liriano, Nova, and Manny Banuleos. Would you sign up for three hard throwing lefties in your rotation right now, with three of your pitchers being homegrown? I would.
I don't know how realistic this whole thing is. The Twins may decide to hang on to Liriano through the season and explore a trade next year. They may may deal him at the trade deadline, and they may decide that, under no circumstances is Liriano finding himself onto the dreaded Yankee roster.
They may also decide to ship Liriano as a part of a deal that lands them Michael Young, the star infielder for the Rangers who wants nothing to do with DH'ing and has asked for a trade. The Rangers, like the Yankees, are looking for a top starter after losing out on Lee and while Liriano doesn't provide the guarantee Lee did, he is a very nice second option. With Young in the lineup, joining Denard Span, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Michael Cuddyer, the Twins would suddenly have a formidable lineup to go along with an always solid rotation. It might be their best choice.
Yet, despite any challenges, Liriano's availability is the first piece of interesting news to arrive at the Yankee doorstep. There would be a reason to get excited in the Bronx. There would be a reason to imagine the Yankees going toe-to-toe with the much improved Red Sox.
Real GM's don't have to wait for sure things to fall into their laps. They make their money not by simply throwing the owner's money around, but by finding a way to pry pitchers like Liriano away from their clubs without burning down the minor leagues.
The most notably thing Cashman has done this entire offseason is dress like an elf and scale down the side of a large building. Perhaps, if he pulls off a Liriano deal, he can retain what is left of his dignity and his credibility.
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