NL Central Preview

Let me say something about the NL Central. If MLB is going to realign, the Central has to be the pivot point. Why? For some reason, the NL Central has six teams whereas every other division in baseball, except the AL West, had five teams. There are only four teams in the AL West.
I'm sure there is a reason for this but, honestly, I don't get it. Why the hell is there one division with six teams and another with four?
Since I LOVE to move teams around, here would be my solution, which probably has nothing to do with a fairly complicated realignment proposal I made last year. Here's what I would do to even things up. It's very simple:
Move the Houston Astros to the NL West, move the Arizona Diamondbacks to the AL West.
A move to the NL West would be fine for the Astros and it would give the West divisions in each sport a team in Texas. The Diamondbacks are still relatively new in baseball so moving them isn't as dramatic as moving a team that has deeper roots in the National League. Plus, you're taking two teams that have been stuck in a rut for a while, a move would be good for both of them. And, you wouldn't have any more weird divisions, which just annoys me on a practical level. Pisses me off, actually.
Yet, until Bud Selig wakes up to my suggestions (for which I hope to be handsomely paid), the NL Central remains as is.
Without further ado, here's how I see the division breaking down:
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
Houston Astros

At the beginning of 2010 I felt like the Reds were a year away. I was prepared to pick them for the top spot in the division in 2011, but they jumped the gun. Is the Big Red Machine back for round two? I doubt it, but considering I don't love what anyone else in the division did, and I think the Reds have built one of the best young teams in the league, I see them repeating as NL Central victors.
I think Cinci is actually underrated. Joey Votto is the reining NL MVP, Brandon Phillips is one of the best second basemen in the league, Jay Bruce could be in line for a breakout year in 2011, Scott Rolen found the fountain of youth, and Edgar Renteria is coming off a year where he helped the Giants win a World Series. That's not even counting Drew Stubbs and Johnny Gomes, both of whom put up solid numbers last year and are the exact top-quality role players all good teams need. They also have depth in the pitching staff, with Edison Volquez healthy and ready to go, Johnny Cueto coming off an impressive year, Bronson Arroyo providing valuable veteran leadership, and Homer Bailey still looking to tap into his treasure trove of talents. And, of course, the bullpen will be, at least for a time, solidified by Ardolis Chapman, whose stuff looked every bit as good as advertised. Could he be a starter by the end of the year? Absolutely. Could he be the closer? Certainly. Either way, the Reds have hitting and pitching depth. Usually a good combo for success.
Behind them I am picking the Brewers. I LOVE their pitching. Think of facing this foursome when you walk into Milwaukee in 2011: Zach Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shawn Marcum, and veteran Randy Wolf. That aint bad at all. Consider that the Brewers will throw three pitchers, back to back to back, who were the best on their team a year ago (Greinke in Kansas City, Marcum in Toronto, and Gallardo for the Brewers). I also love Axford as the closer, taking over for retired Trevor Hoffman, who was no where near his dominant former self with the Brewers. The real question is going to be, what does Milwaukee do with Prince Fielder?
The hefty first baseman is going to get a big contract at the end of the year from someone outside of Milwaukee. They know this. Do they just hang onto him, try and win this year, and take take the draft pick at the end of the year, or do they trade him now, get something back in return to lessen the blow of losing their best power hitter? My guess is they keep him the whole year, hoping that an offense of he, Ryan Braun, Cory Hart, and Rickie Weeks is enough to make the playoffs.
I am down on the Cardinals and the Cubs. The Cards are still a scary offense, with The Man Albert Pujols, Matt Holiday, Colby Rasmus, and Yadier Molina, and even though I am not in love with Lance Berkman playing the field, I have a sense he will hit well in St. Louis. But, I have never been in love with Ryan Franklin as a closer and even with Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter both battling for Cy Youngs, the Cards rotation is thin. And I just feel like the Pujols contract situation is going to hang over this entire team, all year.
As far as the Cubs, I just don't trust this team. You can make an argument that the offense is going to have a big year, with an energized Carlos Pena looking to prove his poorous 2010 average was an abberation and Tyler Colvin coming into his own. But I just feel like there are too many guys well on the back end of their careers, like Alfonso Soriano, the oft-injured Aramis Ramirez, and even Marlon Byrd. There are a lot of mid-30's guys with injury trends on this team that will ultimately determine the team's fate.
As far as the pitching staff, I like the addition of Matt Garza but have no idea how long Carlos Zambrano will remain on the team, or how effective he will be. Ryan Dempster is a good pitcher, but not an ace, and the Cubs are going to need an ace-quality guy. Again, on paper the Cubs aren't terrible. If their older players produce at a younger level, if Zambrano, Garza, and Dempster form a top-notch 1-2-3 in the rotation, and if the tandem of Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol shut down the 8th and 9th, maybe the Cubbies surprise some people. I'm betting no.
I'm not going to spend a lot of time on the Astros and the Pirates. I am picking the Pirates simply because I think their "improvement" has to be measured in moving up from the bottom, rather than challenging for the top. Plus, I love Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, and Pedro Alvarez making up a core of young, talented players the team might build on. But, that pitching is dreadful.
Houston is up for sale, meaning Carlos Lee is out as soon as an American League team determines it needs a DH. I actually like the top of their rotation, as Wandy Rodriguez is a top-quality pitcher, Brett Myers sort of reinvented himself, and J.A. Happ is a young lefty with the potential to pitch at the top of a rotation, in my opinion. Yet, that lineup is essentially Hunter Pence and a bunch of "who is that guy?" and the bullpen is completely unproven.

Best Player in the NL Central: Albert Pujols
Best Pitcher in the NL Central: Zach Greinke
Breakout Player in the NL Central: Ardolis Chapman
Comeback Player in the NL Central: Carlos Pena