I have tried posting a couple of times over the last month but, for some reason, blogspot hasn't been very receptive to my desire to opine about all things Yankees, so I'll try it one more time.
Really, things have settled down in Yankee land. In fact, it is the first time in several years where it feels like the dynasty days where, as a fan, you expect the team to win every time they take the field.
So, with the Bombers rolling and the dog days officially here, I thought it would be a good time to take stock of some of the "predictions" I have made throughout the year and see how I'm doing. There is still plenty of time for me to be right or wrong, but August seems to be a perfect time to really see where I stand.
What I was right about:
Oh, the list is so long..............:)
First, the thing I am most proud of is my early championing of Phil Hughes to the pen. While such beat guys like Sweeney Murti and Peter Abraham poo-pooed the idea from the get go, and resident blowhard Mik Francesa emphatically professed that Hughes "won't be good in the pen at all," Franchise has taken to relief work like Lindsay Lohan to a Vegas cathouse. The eighth inning and the "bridge" to Mariano has never been more secur, and Hughes is the biggest reason why. Only required to throw two pitches, Hughes' fastball has added life and his curve is devastating. And there is a swagger about him on the mound that has not been there before. He looks almost annoyed when someone gets a hit or he gives up a walk.
Second, I was right about the pen in general. WHile everyone was suggesting that the pen would NEVER be the equal of other teams' relievers, I predicted the Yankees were not that far away from having a very capable group. Did I know they would be this good? No way. But I saw the talent in Phil Coke, Alfredo Aceves, Brian Bruney, and even David Robertson, all of whom have become valuable commodities in a pen that is about as shut down as you're going to get. Bully for me.
Third, while I can't give myself that much credit for this, I'll take a bow none the less. While the likes of Joel Sherman (another moron making comments with little knowledge to back it up) were suggesting that Derek Jeter was simply a "singles hitter" now and others were typing in their calculations to prove that Jeter was the worst fielder since Todd Hundley ventured out to left field, I quietly predicted that Jeter would have a return-to-form season, which would be a prelude to next season (contract year), which promises to be even better. Right now, Jeter is at .320, 15, 53, 20 stolen bases, and a near .400 OBP. He's on pace for 20 homers, 75+ RBI, 30+ stolen bases, 200 hits, 100 runs, and his best defensive season in the last five. And, yes, I saw it coming.
Fourth, I believe it was me who saw Damon's contract year coming. Of course, a lot of other people did as well, so I'll just add my name to the list. But, remember, it is a list of people who were right about something.
Fifth, I was right that the Yankees were the best team in the East and that the Rays would be the odd ballclub out.
Sunday, August 16
Sunday, July 19
Joba teaches a reminder course.........
Here is the thing about Joba: he is so damn talented, and burst on the scene with such an amazing display of electric stuff, it is impossible to lower the impossible standards to which he is subjected at this point.
Before the All Star Game Yankee fans had essentially done a 180 on Chamberlain. The most beloved young player on the Yanks was being booed and, once Roy Halladay's name was mentioned in trade rumors, everyone was wondering how much gas it would cost to drive Joba to the station to make the exchange.
But this afternoon, Joba reminded us of a few important facts.
Joba reminded us that he still has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in the game. He reminded us that his fastball hasn't gone the way of the dodo bird and that, when his slider is diving in and out of the strikezone, he can go on an extraordinary run of creating swings and misses.
He also reminded us that he is 23 years old, something we have a tendency to forget, and while all of us would love for him to have matured to the point of consistent dominance, sometimes these things take a while.
It was pretty darn interesting to watch Joba duel Edwin Jackson this afternoon, considering where Jackson is in his own maturity as a pitcher. At 23-years old, while with the Rays, Jackson, in his first full season as a starter, went a terrible 5-15. He went 161 innings and gave up 195 hits, accounting for a 5.76 ERA. Last year, at 24 and a full season under his belt, Jackson lowered his ERA to 4.42, nearly 1.5 runs per game better, winning 14, pitching 183 innings and giving up 199 hits.
Now, in Detroit at age 25, Jackson has begun to fully realize his outstanding potential. He is projected to win anywhere between 13 and 15 games with an ERA under 3, going 230 innings and striking out 182. He made the All Star team for the first time and is establishing himself as one of the best young pitchers in the game.
Can you imagine if Jackson had put up those kinda numbers for the Yankees early in his career? He would have been shipped off to the next available team for a bag of balls.
Joba, in New York, at 23, has a 4.05 ERA, is on pace to pitch 169 innings, give up 178 hits and strike out 153 while winning 10 games. For his first full season as a starter in the majors, after having only 150 innings at the minor league level, that isn't too bad, is it?
Look, Joba can be absolutely infuriating to watch pitch, and I am sure he will pop up another sub-par performance before too long that makes us all scratch our head, but for today Joba was able, with his 97 MPH fastball and devastating slider, to collectively slap us all across the face and remind us that the talent is there and, sometimes, you do have to wait a little while for it to come around. The Rays didn't and they handed the Tigers a guy who could be a top pitcher for 10 years. The Yanks can't make that kind of mistake.
Before the All Star Game Yankee fans had essentially done a 180 on Chamberlain. The most beloved young player on the Yanks was being booed and, once Roy Halladay's name was mentioned in trade rumors, everyone was wondering how much gas it would cost to drive Joba to the station to make the exchange.
But this afternoon, Joba reminded us of a few important facts.
Joba reminded us that he still has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in the game. He reminded us that his fastball hasn't gone the way of the dodo bird and that, when his slider is diving in and out of the strikezone, he can go on an extraordinary run of creating swings and misses.
He also reminded us that he is 23 years old, something we have a tendency to forget, and while all of us would love for him to have matured to the point of consistent dominance, sometimes these things take a while.
It was pretty darn interesting to watch Joba duel Edwin Jackson this afternoon, considering where Jackson is in his own maturity as a pitcher. At 23-years old, while with the Rays, Jackson, in his first full season as a starter, went a terrible 5-15. He went 161 innings and gave up 195 hits, accounting for a 5.76 ERA. Last year, at 24 and a full season under his belt, Jackson lowered his ERA to 4.42, nearly 1.5 runs per game better, winning 14, pitching 183 innings and giving up 199 hits.
Now, in Detroit at age 25, Jackson has begun to fully realize his outstanding potential. He is projected to win anywhere between 13 and 15 games with an ERA under 3, going 230 innings and striking out 182. He made the All Star team for the first time and is establishing himself as one of the best young pitchers in the game.
Can you imagine if Jackson had put up those kinda numbers for the Yankees early in his career? He would have been shipped off to the next available team for a bag of balls.
Joba, in New York, at 23, has a 4.05 ERA, is on pace to pitch 169 innings, give up 178 hits and strike out 153 while winning 10 games. For his first full season as a starter in the majors, after having only 150 innings at the minor league level, that isn't too bad, is it?
Look, Joba can be absolutely infuriating to watch pitch, and I am sure he will pop up another sub-par performance before too long that makes us all scratch our head, but for today Joba was able, with his 97 MPH fastball and devastating slider, to collectively slap us all across the face and remind us that the talent is there and, sometimes, you do have to wait a little while for it to come around. The Rays didn't and they handed the Tigers a guy who could be a top pitcher for 10 years. The Yanks can't make that kind of mistake.
Friday, July 17
It isn't going to happen, but if it did, here's what I would do
Okay, let’s get this right out in the open right now: I don’t believe for one second that Roy Halladay is being traded to either the Yankees or the Red Sox. Seriously, folks, put yourself in the shoes of Blue Jay’s GM J.P. Riccardi; how would you justify trading your best player and the face of your franchise to one of your division rivals for prospects?
Hey, we may all know who Jesus Montero, Austin Jackson, and Phil Hughes are, but do you think a Blue Jay fan knows, or cares one wink, about those names? If you do, here is a pop quiz: who is the best prospect in Toronto’s system? If you asked the three hard-core Jays fans in Toronto that question, it would roll off the tongue, but damned if I know. So, if the Yankees traded CC Sabathia or Derek Jeter for one of those guys, or even three of them, would it make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside?
Of course not.
The Halladay deal is going to be painful for fans no matter what. Trading him in division is like spitting in their face while you’re signing the agreement.
BUT…………….
Alright, let’s play in media fantasy land for a second and say that Toronto would trade Halladay to the Bronx. Who would I be willing to give up in that kinda trade?
Well, let’s lop off some names right off the bat: Jeter, Posada, Teixeira, A-Rod, Matsui, Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, and Mariano. Those guys are either a.) too old, b.) making too much money, c.) aren’t available, or d.) all of the above. Whichever letter you pick, it means no go.
Two guys who are highly unlikely but just missed making that list are Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher. Cano is young and is tremendously talented, but his inability to hit in the clutch makes him a prime candidate for “can’t handle New York” status once more is asked of him and his easy-going style of play can rub some New Yorkers the wrong way. Problem with trading him to the Jays is this: he is getting paid $42 million and they already have a pretty darn good second baseman in Aaron Hill.
All sides point to no on Cano.
Swisher? Well, again, I highly doubt the Jays would take on his contract and .242 average, but he does have power, is only 28, and can play multiple positions. That makes him more attractive than the other guys, but still a long shot.
No, this comes down to the younger guys who are either already on the team, or expected in the next few years. Of course, if the Blue Jays are worth their weight in gold they know the Yankee system better than I, so I’m sure there are names they know and like that I won’t be mentioning. But at least a few of these guys will HAVE to be included, one would think.
Let’s start with the guys I would ABSOLUTELY be willing to give up in a Halladay deal: Melky Cabrera, Phil Coke, Dave Robertson, Andrew Brackman, Austin Jackson, Zack McAllister, Dellin Betances, Brett Gardner, and Mark Melancon.
I don’t think there is any shocker in there except for Austin Jackson.
First, I buy into Jackson, I really do. I like the kid A LOT. Anyone catch some of the minor’s All Star Game last night? Jackson hit a triple off the right-center field wall that he absolutely crushed. It was an opposite field rocket shot and he was motoring. And, supposedly, he is a very good fielder as well.
I think the power will come, but not in 35-4- range, probably the 20+ range, which is still pretty good for a kid who might steal 40+ bases.
But outfielders are probably the easiest commodity to get on the market and the Yankees have some decent ones already. Save a sweep to the Angels before the break, the Yankees were essentially tied with the Red Sox for the division with an outfield of Brett Gardner, Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher, and Melky Cabrera. You can win with that outfield, although it is, I admit, not ideal.
Plus, if you let Jackson go, you would undoubtedly hang onto Gardner, and I am a big fan of the little man. I think he might be the type of rugged, hustle player the Yankees have been looking for. You need those kinda guys. That, to me, makes Jackson somewhat expendable.
If, for some reason, the Jays want Gardner, than Jackson is your man in center, but you have a surplus there, making him expendable.
Also, while I like the upside of Melancon and am not scared off at all by his poor performances when called up, he is a reliever. You can find, or make, relievers if you have to.
Here are the three guys I would think about but would be VERY reticent to give up: Franscico Cervelli, Austin Romine, and Phil Hughes.
I know, Cervelli probably doesn’t deserve to be on this list considering he hasn’t been touted as a big-time prospect and was only in the majors for a limited time. But you had to be impressed with this young man. He has superior defensive skills and his offensive game was a lot better than I think most people realized. I like him a lot but would probably be willing to part with him, although I admit it would be tough.
Romine is supposedly a more refined catcher than highly touted Jesus Montero and his power numbers are not that far off either. But none of us have ever seen the young man on the big stage and the Yankees are stocked at the catcher position. With so many options (Cervelli, Montero, and young prospects at the lower levels) coming at catcher, giving up Romine would be a possibility.
Now to the big debate.
Here is how I look at Hughes versus Joba (and, in my mind, that’s the debate): Hughes has two legit pitches right now while Joba has three with a coming-along changeup that will make four; Hughes was shaky at best while in the rotation while Joba, aside from his last three starts, has been solid; Hughes was throwing 91-92, touching 94 while in the rotation, then amped it up when he went to the pen, while Joba has been averaging 92-94, touching 96 on good days; Hughes has been far more injury prone than Joba; Hughes, while having wonderful early success in the pen so far, hasn’t shown it over a long stretch, while Joba has, meaning he could be put back in the pen and excel; and Joba is just simply more seasoned at this point.
Trust me, I am a converted Hughes denier and I believe the young man will be very good, but I like Joba more. If it came down to Hughes or Joba, I would part with Hughes first.
Now, here are the two guys I wouldn’t touch: Joba Chamberlain and Jesus Montero.
I just explained my “Joba over Hughes” theory but I think it also needs to be pointed out that Joba, up until three weeks ago, was the most untouchable player on the team and Hughes, a month ago, was so shaky people were questioning what you could get for him on the open market. Only in New York could that change overnight.
Joba has the stuff to not just be good but to be great. You don’t trade that simply because of some bad starts and stupid post-game press conferences.
And Jesus Montero? This kid has the chance to be a Manny Ramirez-type hitter, I honestly believe that, and I don’t think you pass up on that kind of talent.
He is big, he has power, he has patience, and he is only 19. This could be one of the most special players the Yankees have produced in YEARS.
For everyone worried about whether he will be a catcher or not, I have an easy solution: move him to one of the corner outfield spots.
Seriously, the kid is 19 and, from what I have seen, can run a little bit. He doesn’t have to be a DH or a first baseman. Move him there now, let him make his mistakes, then stick him in left field for his career. You already have Cervelli, a great defensive catcher, and Romine, who might be every bit as good with more offensive upside. Put Montero in a position of need. The Yankees don’t have power-hitting outfielders waiting to come up. Make him your Manny Ramirez without the steroids. Don’t let that kind of player go.
I have heard some people suggest that the Yankees “bite the bullet” like the Red Sox did a few years back when they traded Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez for Josh Beckett. Couple of points to remember about that: first, Beckett was significantly younger than Halladay is now and had a proven track record in the postseason, something Halladay, who has mostly pitched meaningless games in his life, doesn’t have; second, the Sox didn’t already have some proven pitchers and young studs on the way. I doubt they would make that same trade today, given the depth and talent they have now; finally, the only thing that makes that trade palatable is the fact that the Sox won a championship. What if they had fallen short? Hanley Ramirez has become a superstar. Jesus Montero could be the same way.
Like I said, it doesn’t matter because they aren’t trading in division, if at all, but if I were giving up my players, my only two off limits would be Joba and Jesus.
Hey, we may all know who Jesus Montero, Austin Jackson, and Phil Hughes are, but do you think a Blue Jay fan knows, or cares one wink, about those names? If you do, here is a pop quiz: who is the best prospect in Toronto’s system? If you asked the three hard-core Jays fans in Toronto that question, it would roll off the tongue, but damned if I know. So, if the Yankees traded CC Sabathia or Derek Jeter for one of those guys, or even three of them, would it make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside?
Of course not.
The Halladay deal is going to be painful for fans no matter what. Trading him in division is like spitting in their face while you’re signing the agreement.
BUT…………….
Alright, let’s play in media fantasy land for a second and say that Toronto would trade Halladay to the Bronx. Who would I be willing to give up in that kinda trade?
Well, let’s lop off some names right off the bat: Jeter, Posada, Teixeira, A-Rod, Matsui, Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, and Mariano. Those guys are either a.) too old, b.) making too much money, c.) aren’t available, or d.) all of the above. Whichever letter you pick, it means no go.
Two guys who are highly unlikely but just missed making that list are Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher. Cano is young and is tremendously talented, but his inability to hit in the clutch makes him a prime candidate for “can’t handle New York” status once more is asked of him and his easy-going style of play can rub some New Yorkers the wrong way. Problem with trading him to the Jays is this: he is getting paid $42 million and they already have a pretty darn good second baseman in Aaron Hill.
All sides point to no on Cano.
Swisher? Well, again, I highly doubt the Jays would take on his contract and .242 average, but he does have power, is only 28, and can play multiple positions. That makes him more attractive than the other guys, but still a long shot.
No, this comes down to the younger guys who are either already on the team, or expected in the next few years. Of course, if the Blue Jays are worth their weight in gold they know the Yankee system better than I, so I’m sure there are names they know and like that I won’t be mentioning. But at least a few of these guys will HAVE to be included, one would think.
Let’s start with the guys I would ABSOLUTELY be willing to give up in a Halladay deal: Melky Cabrera, Phil Coke, Dave Robertson, Andrew Brackman, Austin Jackson, Zack McAllister, Dellin Betances, Brett Gardner, and Mark Melancon.
I don’t think there is any shocker in there except for Austin Jackson.
First, I buy into Jackson, I really do. I like the kid A LOT. Anyone catch some of the minor’s All Star Game last night? Jackson hit a triple off the right-center field wall that he absolutely crushed. It was an opposite field rocket shot and he was motoring. And, supposedly, he is a very good fielder as well.
I think the power will come, but not in 35-4- range, probably the 20+ range, which is still pretty good for a kid who might steal 40+ bases.
But outfielders are probably the easiest commodity to get on the market and the Yankees have some decent ones already. Save a sweep to the Angels before the break, the Yankees were essentially tied with the Red Sox for the division with an outfield of Brett Gardner, Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher, and Melky Cabrera. You can win with that outfield, although it is, I admit, not ideal.
Plus, if you let Jackson go, you would undoubtedly hang onto Gardner, and I am a big fan of the little man. I think he might be the type of rugged, hustle player the Yankees have been looking for. You need those kinda guys. That, to me, makes Jackson somewhat expendable.
If, for some reason, the Jays want Gardner, than Jackson is your man in center, but you have a surplus there, making him expendable.
Also, while I like the upside of Melancon and am not scared off at all by his poor performances when called up, he is a reliever. You can find, or make, relievers if you have to.
Here are the three guys I would think about but would be VERY reticent to give up: Franscico Cervelli, Austin Romine, and Phil Hughes.
I know, Cervelli probably doesn’t deserve to be on this list considering he hasn’t been touted as a big-time prospect and was only in the majors for a limited time. But you had to be impressed with this young man. He has superior defensive skills and his offensive game was a lot better than I think most people realized. I like him a lot but would probably be willing to part with him, although I admit it would be tough.
Romine is supposedly a more refined catcher than highly touted Jesus Montero and his power numbers are not that far off either. But none of us have ever seen the young man on the big stage and the Yankees are stocked at the catcher position. With so many options (Cervelli, Montero, and young prospects at the lower levels) coming at catcher, giving up Romine would be a possibility.
Now to the big debate.
Here is how I look at Hughes versus Joba (and, in my mind, that’s the debate): Hughes has two legit pitches right now while Joba has three with a coming-along changeup that will make four; Hughes was shaky at best while in the rotation while Joba, aside from his last three starts, has been solid; Hughes was throwing 91-92, touching 94 while in the rotation, then amped it up when he went to the pen, while Joba has been averaging 92-94, touching 96 on good days; Hughes has been far more injury prone than Joba; Hughes, while having wonderful early success in the pen so far, hasn’t shown it over a long stretch, while Joba has, meaning he could be put back in the pen and excel; and Joba is just simply more seasoned at this point.
Trust me, I am a converted Hughes denier and I believe the young man will be very good, but I like Joba more. If it came down to Hughes or Joba, I would part with Hughes first.
Now, here are the two guys I wouldn’t touch: Joba Chamberlain and Jesus Montero.
I just explained my “Joba over Hughes” theory but I think it also needs to be pointed out that Joba, up until three weeks ago, was the most untouchable player on the team and Hughes, a month ago, was so shaky people were questioning what you could get for him on the open market. Only in New York could that change overnight.
Joba has the stuff to not just be good but to be great. You don’t trade that simply because of some bad starts and stupid post-game press conferences.
And Jesus Montero? This kid has the chance to be a Manny Ramirez-type hitter, I honestly believe that, and I don’t think you pass up on that kind of talent.
He is big, he has power, he has patience, and he is only 19. This could be one of the most special players the Yankees have produced in YEARS.
For everyone worried about whether he will be a catcher or not, I have an easy solution: move him to one of the corner outfield spots.
Seriously, the kid is 19 and, from what I have seen, can run a little bit. He doesn’t have to be a DH or a first baseman. Move him there now, let him make his mistakes, then stick him in left field for his career. You already have Cervelli, a great defensive catcher, and Romine, who might be every bit as good with more offensive upside. Put Montero in a position of need. The Yankees don’t have power-hitting outfielders waiting to come up. Make him your Manny Ramirez without the steroids. Don’t let that kind of player go.
I have heard some people suggest that the Yankees “bite the bullet” like the Red Sox did a few years back when they traded Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez for Josh Beckett. Couple of points to remember about that: first, Beckett was significantly younger than Halladay is now and had a proven track record in the postseason, something Halladay, who has mostly pitched meaningless games in his life, doesn’t have; second, the Sox didn’t already have some proven pitchers and young studs on the way. I doubt they would make that same trade today, given the depth and talent they have now; finally, the only thing that makes that trade palatable is the fact that the Sox won a championship. What if they had fallen short? Hanley Ramirez has become a superstar. Jesus Montero could be the same way.
Like I said, it doesn’t matter because they aren’t trading in division, if at all, but if I were giving up my players, my only two off limits would be Joba and Jesus.
Furture is so bright, I gotta wear shades
One of my favorite bits on the old Late Night With Conan O’Brien show, before he went over to the dark side of the Tonight Show was “The Year 200,” where O’Brien and a guest would look into the future.
I know most of us in baseball land see the future as existing only within the next few months, but I thought it would be fun, as we turn our attention to the second half, to look beyond that………all the way to the year 2010.
What will the Yankees look like in another year? Well, here’s what I would like to see when the Yankees begin the 2010 season.
First base: Mark Teixeira — There are gonna be a few pretty obvious names on this list and Tex leads off the bunch. He has been a little more streaky than you would like, starting off horrible, heating up to nuclear levels, then going 90+ at bats without a homer and watching his average fall below .280. But you can already tell that he is good for a .280 - .300 average, 30+ homers, 110+ RBI each year while playing excellent defense. Barring injury, he’ll end up being worth the money.
Second base: Robby Cano — I know we all go hot and cold on Robby, but consider his numbers right now for a second baseman: .308, 13, 46, 61 runs. If he kept up at that pace, he would score 113 runs, drive in 85, and hit 24 dingers. That’s the kinda production from second almost no one else this side of the Phillies and Chase Utley can touch.
Yes, sometimes it seems like he’s watching clouds, or counting his steps to first. Yes, he looks like a freshman on his first day of high school when he comes up with men on. Yes, he tried to bunt being up 3-0 in the count. He aint the sharpest tool in the shed. But, again, where are you finding a second baseman with his talent, his production, at his age? Thank you.
Short stop: Derek Jeter — Hey, anyone notice the old man Jeter is having one of his best years ever? The veteran captain is on pace for over 20 homers (aided by the new Stadium) 30+ steals, 100+ runs scored, and, of course, over 200 hits and a .320+ batting average. Oh, and his defense has been pretty darn good as well.
The rumors of Jeter’s baseball death seem to have been greatly exaggerated.
Third base: Alex Rodriguez — Some days it looks like that $3 billion contract the Yankees gave the man is worth every penny. Other days, it looks destined to be ranked as one of the great financial mistakes not headed by Bernie Madoff. Only time will tell, but this much we do know: A-Rod is gonna be your happy-go-lucky third baseman in the Bronx for a long, long time.
Catcher: Francisco Cervelli — Here is when things get interesting.
Is Cervelli the real deal of Shelley “Shrek” Duncan with a cooler accent? Only time will tell, but you can’t fake that kind of defensive prowess. He has an absolute gun for an arm, and it’s accurate as all hell. He likes throwing behind runners and daring them to try and steal. While I love Posada, as a fan, your heart sinks every time a speedy runner gets on first. With Cervelli, you are almost hoping they try and run. It is sort of like watching a great shot blocker in basketball. You want the other team to go inside as much as possible because you know he is going to regulate that area.
Will he ever be a good enough hitter to make him an every day catcher in the league? I think so.
Look, he isn’t going to be Jorge Posada. Few catchers are. Jorge has quietly amassed a Hall of Fame-caliber career and is an elite offensive player. Cervelli won’t be that, but could he hit .260+ with a few homers, few RBI? Sure, why not? He essentially did that while up with the club before.
With this offense, you should be able to have a great defensive catcher play everyday as long as he is solid offensively. I think Cervelli will hit more than enough to justify his spot on the team.
Right field: Alex Rios — The Yankees need a corner outfielder with pop. The Blue Jays are going to be looking to dump payroll and no one is going to take Vernon Wells. The Yankees’ tenuous situation in the starting rotation right now makes a deadline trade for a bat unlikely as their offense is flying, but in the off season, why not put together a deal for Rios? He’s 28, has a gun for an arm, plays virtually every day, steals 20+ bases, and has pop, which should only be more useful in the new stadium. Plus, while in Toronto he is expected to be a great player, in New York he would be able to fit in a little neater. If he hits 22 homers and drives in 85 RBI for the Jays, he is a disappointment. Ironically, in the ever-harsh atmosphere of Yankee Stadium, those numbers would be perfectly acceptable.
I look at Rios and I see the Yankee answer to Jason Bay and, because he is owed a good chunk of change, I don’t think the Bombers would be forced to give up HUGE prospects to get him.
Center field: Brett Gardner — He’s spunky, he’s gritty, and he is exactly what the Yankees have needed now for a while. Gardner, after working out the kinks early in the season, has become the type of hitter the Yankees were hoping for. He’ll bat .280 because, well, he’ll beat some plays out and get enough in the gaps to create some pain for other teams. He puts extreme pressure on the opposition’s defense. I can think of a few times (the Alex Cora wide throw to second) where his speed was a major reason for an important error. And, given a full season, he’ll steal 40-60 bases, guaranteed (I’m not sure he has even learned HOW to steal as of yet).
He has a Chad Pennington arm in center, but he catches up to balls and is taking much better routes now than early in the season. And he is fearless.
You win with players like him on the team, and they need that.
Left field: Jesus Montero — This one is actually right out of left field, but I think this young man is going to be special. He destroyed A-ball, was moved up to AA, had about a week’s worth of adjusting, and is now destroying that league as well. He’ll be in AAA in another few weeks and then, after that, why not the majors? Everyone is so worried about “rushing” kids, but if Montero is as special as he seems, why not bring him up and let him learn at this level?
Now, about the position change: Montero is a catcher, but he is a big, big kid and, while he has a gun for an arm, he evidently isn’t making Johnny Bench sweat. The Yankees have Gardner, Austin Jackson, and Melky Cabrera as good outfield options (Jackson and Gardner could potentially be exceptional) but they are all center fielders with little power. Montero has the power to be a corner outfielder easily. And since the Yankees are (surprisingly) stacked at the catcher position (Cervelli and Austin Romine), moving him would make the most sense.
Montero should be moved by the end of this year and then allowed to play winter ball as an outfielder. By next season he should be ready and, if not, a month or two extra in the minors, as someone holds down his spot (Melky?) should be just fine.
DH: Jorge Posada — I know he won’t want to do it but Posada needs to be moved to the DH spot by next season for two very good reasons: 1.) he’s not a good defensive catcher anymore and there are MUCH better options in the system and, 2.) Posada is far too valuable offensively and he needs to be rested more than he is now.
Posada at the DH spot would be allowed to focus solely on hitting and, since he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down with the bat, his numbers should remain consistent, even at his elevated age.
There is a far better chance that Posada remains an offensive force for the next two years of his contract if he is moved to DH than if he insists on staying behind the plate.
Take a cue from your coach Jorge and help one of the new kids move into the role.
Bench: Melky Cabrera, Austine Romine, Ramiro Pena, Nick Swisher.
Starting rotation, #1 spot: CC Sabathia — He’s a horse who will only pitch better the second half than the first. You would have liked to see him step up in two specific spots this first half (third game against Boston at Fenway and third game against Angels in Anaheim, both to stave off sweeps) but, overall, you can see why the Yankees paid him what they did. Look for big things second half and next year when he is more comfortable.
Starting rotation, #2: AJ Burnett — Has been on a roll since losing to Boston and has the best stuff on the team. When he is going right, he is virtually unhittable. The question is, can he stay healthy and avoid meltdown games?
Starting rotation, #3: Joba Chamberlain — I am going out on a limb and saying that, by this time next year Joba will be your bona fide #3 starter. First, he doesn’t get traded. Second, he turns it around in the second half and pitches better. Third, by this time next year he will have had a full season under his belt and have matured. He’ll be your man next year, making for a deadline 1-2-3 in the rotation.
Starting rotation, #4: Erik Bedard — I know people don’t like him as a person, and he is an injury risk, but it is the reason the Yankees will be able to get him on the cheap and slip him into the rotation. If he stays healthy, the Yanks have a steal, as he has the ability to be one of the best lefties in the game. He is also only 30, meaning he has a chance to turn his last two years around and pitch for a long time. Upside? Very up. Downside? He breaks down. But, by next year, some of your younger pitchers, like Zack McAllister and (gulp) Ian Kennedy, along with Andrew Brackman and Dellin Betances, should be closer to making a contribution.
Starting rotation, #5: Phil Hughes — If everyone pitches as expected, he’ll be allowed to grow into the job and the experience he is gaining in the pen right now will prove to be invaluable.
Bullpen, closer: Mariano Rivera — You have a better chance of winning powerball 5 straight weeks than you do in predicting when Rivera will slow down.
Bullpen, rest: Phil Coke, Brian Bruney, Alfredo Aceves, Damaso Marte, Mark Melancon, BJ Ryan.
This is how you do a pen, you pull guys off the scrap heap. Ryan was really, really bad for the Blue Jays this year, but last year, in 60 innings, he was great. In fact, other than this year, when he has been healthy he has been great. Can he stay healthy? That’s a question, but it won’t cost you anything to find out, and if he ever got some of that electric stuff back, how good with that bullpen be?
I know most of us in baseball land see the future as existing only within the next few months, but I thought it would be fun, as we turn our attention to the second half, to look beyond that………all the way to the year 2010.
What will the Yankees look like in another year? Well, here’s what I would like to see when the Yankees begin the 2010 season.
First base: Mark Teixeira — There are gonna be a few pretty obvious names on this list and Tex leads off the bunch. He has been a little more streaky than you would like, starting off horrible, heating up to nuclear levels, then going 90+ at bats without a homer and watching his average fall below .280. But you can already tell that he is good for a .280 - .300 average, 30+ homers, 110+ RBI each year while playing excellent defense. Barring injury, he’ll end up being worth the money.
Second base: Robby Cano — I know we all go hot and cold on Robby, but consider his numbers right now for a second baseman: .308, 13, 46, 61 runs. If he kept up at that pace, he would score 113 runs, drive in 85, and hit 24 dingers. That’s the kinda production from second almost no one else this side of the Phillies and Chase Utley can touch.
Yes, sometimes it seems like he’s watching clouds, or counting his steps to first. Yes, he looks like a freshman on his first day of high school when he comes up with men on. Yes, he tried to bunt being up 3-0 in the count. He aint the sharpest tool in the shed. But, again, where are you finding a second baseman with his talent, his production, at his age? Thank you.
Short stop: Derek Jeter — Hey, anyone notice the old man Jeter is having one of his best years ever? The veteran captain is on pace for over 20 homers (aided by the new Stadium) 30+ steals, 100+ runs scored, and, of course, over 200 hits and a .320+ batting average. Oh, and his defense has been pretty darn good as well.
The rumors of Jeter’s baseball death seem to have been greatly exaggerated.
Third base: Alex Rodriguez — Some days it looks like that $3 billion contract the Yankees gave the man is worth every penny. Other days, it looks destined to be ranked as one of the great financial mistakes not headed by Bernie Madoff. Only time will tell, but this much we do know: A-Rod is gonna be your happy-go-lucky third baseman in the Bronx for a long, long time.
Catcher: Francisco Cervelli — Here is when things get interesting.
Is Cervelli the real deal of Shelley “Shrek” Duncan with a cooler accent? Only time will tell, but you can’t fake that kind of defensive prowess. He has an absolute gun for an arm, and it’s accurate as all hell. He likes throwing behind runners and daring them to try and steal. While I love Posada, as a fan, your heart sinks every time a speedy runner gets on first. With Cervelli, you are almost hoping they try and run. It is sort of like watching a great shot blocker in basketball. You want the other team to go inside as much as possible because you know he is going to regulate that area.
Will he ever be a good enough hitter to make him an every day catcher in the league? I think so.
Look, he isn’t going to be Jorge Posada. Few catchers are. Jorge has quietly amassed a Hall of Fame-caliber career and is an elite offensive player. Cervelli won’t be that, but could he hit .260+ with a few homers, few RBI? Sure, why not? He essentially did that while up with the club before.
With this offense, you should be able to have a great defensive catcher play everyday as long as he is solid offensively. I think Cervelli will hit more than enough to justify his spot on the team.
Right field: Alex Rios — The Yankees need a corner outfielder with pop. The Blue Jays are going to be looking to dump payroll and no one is going to take Vernon Wells. The Yankees’ tenuous situation in the starting rotation right now makes a deadline trade for a bat unlikely as their offense is flying, but in the off season, why not put together a deal for Rios? He’s 28, has a gun for an arm, plays virtually every day, steals 20+ bases, and has pop, which should only be more useful in the new stadium. Plus, while in Toronto he is expected to be a great player, in New York he would be able to fit in a little neater. If he hits 22 homers and drives in 85 RBI for the Jays, he is a disappointment. Ironically, in the ever-harsh atmosphere of Yankee Stadium, those numbers would be perfectly acceptable.
I look at Rios and I see the Yankee answer to Jason Bay and, because he is owed a good chunk of change, I don’t think the Bombers would be forced to give up HUGE prospects to get him.
Center field: Brett Gardner — He’s spunky, he’s gritty, and he is exactly what the Yankees have needed now for a while. Gardner, after working out the kinks early in the season, has become the type of hitter the Yankees were hoping for. He’ll bat .280 because, well, he’ll beat some plays out and get enough in the gaps to create some pain for other teams. He puts extreme pressure on the opposition’s defense. I can think of a few times (the Alex Cora wide throw to second) where his speed was a major reason for an important error. And, given a full season, he’ll steal 40-60 bases, guaranteed (I’m not sure he has even learned HOW to steal as of yet).
He has a Chad Pennington arm in center, but he catches up to balls and is taking much better routes now than early in the season. And he is fearless.
You win with players like him on the team, and they need that.
Left field: Jesus Montero — This one is actually right out of left field, but I think this young man is going to be special. He destroyed A-ball, was moved up to AA, had about a week’s worth of adjusting, and is now destroying that league as well. He’ll be in AAA in another few weeks and then, after that, why not the majors? Everyone is so worried about “rushing” kids, but if Montero is as special as he seems, why not bring him up and let him learn at this level?
Now, about the position change: Montero is a catcher, but he is a big, big kid and, while he has a gun for an arm, he evidently isn’t making Johnny Bench sweat. The Yankees have Gardner, Austin Jackson, and Melky Cabrera as good outfield options (Jackson and Gardner could potentially be exceptional) but they are all center fielders with little power. Montero has the power to be a corner outfielder easily. And since the Yankees are (surprisingly) stacked at the catcher position (Cervelli and Austin Romine), moving him would make the most sense.
Montero should be moved by the end of this year and then allowed to play winter ball as an outfielder. By next season he should be ready and, if not, a month or two extra in the minors, as someone holds down his spot (Melky?) should be just fine.
DH: Jorge Posada — I know he won’t want to do it but Posada needs to be moved to the DH spot by next season for two very good reasons: 1.) he’s not a good defensive catcher anymore and there are MUCH better options in the system and, 2.) Posada is far too valuable offensively and he needs to be rested more than he is now.
Posada at the DH spot would be allowed to focus solely on hitting and, since he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down with the bat, his numbers should remain consistent, even at his elevated age.
There is a far better chance that Posada remains an offensive force for the next two years of his contract if he is moved to DH than if he insists on staying behind the plate.
Take a cue from your coach Jorge and help one of the new kids move into the role.
Bench: Melky Cabrera, Austine Romine, Ramiro Pena, Nick Swisher.
Starting rotation, #1 spot: CC Sabathia — He’s a horse who will only pitch better the second half than the first. You would have liked to see him step up in two specific spots this first half (third game against Boston at Fenway and third game against Angels in Anaheim, both to stave off sweeps) but, overall, you can see why the Yankees paid him what they did. Look for big things second half and next year when he is more comfortable.
Starting rotation, #2: AJ Burnett — Has been on a roll since losing to Boston and has the best stuff on the team. When he is going right, he is virtually unhittable. The question is, can he stay healthy and avoid meltdown games?
Starting rotation, #3: Joba Chamberlain — I am going out on a limb and saying that, by this time next year Joba will be your bona fide #3 starter. First, he doesn’t get traded. Second, he turns it around in the second half and pitches better. Third, by this time next year he will have had a full season under his belt and have matured. He’ll be your man next year, making for a deadline 1-2-3 in the rotation.
Starting rotation, #4: Erik Bedard — I know people don’t like him as a person, and he is an injury risk, but it is the reason the Yankees will be able to get him on the cheap and slip him into the rotation. If he stays healthy, the Yanks have a steal, as he has the ability to be one of the best lefties in the game. He is also only 30, meaning he has a chance to turn his last two years around and pitch for a long time. Upside? Very up. Downside? He breaks down. But, by next year, some of your younger pitchers, like Zack McAllister and (gulp) Ian Kennedy, along with Andrew Brackman and Dellin Betances, should be closer to making a contribution.
Starting rotation, #5: Phil Hughes — If everyone pitches as expected, he’ll be allowed to grow into the job and the experience he is gaining in the pen right now will prove to be invaluable.
Bullpen, closer: Mariano Rivera — You have a better chance of winning powerball 5 straight weeks than you do in predicting when Rivera will slow down.
Bullpen, rest: Phil Coke, Brian Bruney, Alfredo Aceves, Damaso Marte, Mark Melancon, BJ Ryan.
This is how you do a pen, you pull guys off the scrap heap. Ryan was really, really bad for the Blue Jays this year, but last year, in 60 innings, he was great. In fact, other than this year, when he has been healthy he has been great. Can he stay healthy? That’s a question, but it won’t cost you anything to find out, and if he ever got some of that electric stuff back, how good with that bullpen be?
Sunday, July 12
So what does this team need now?????
Alright, I get that the actual, numerical mid-point of the season came a few days ago. There are more games behind us than ahead of us here in the 2009 season. We all get it. Let's move on.
Because, really, the All Star break is the mid-point of the season in terms of assessment. By this time, a lot of the pretenders have fallen away, a lot of the contenders have established themselves in the race, and most importantly, everyone should have, by now, assessed their needs.
The Yankees are significantly better than they were last year and, before the last two games in Anaheim, were rolling along, looking like world beaters. The Angels have a tendency to change that view for the Yankees, but it still doesn't change the fact that the first half for the Yankees was a successful one.
So, what do the Yankees need to take the next step? I have put together a small list of needs and possible ways to fill those needs.
*Win Today Baby!!!!!!!!!!!
The Red Sox are going to win this afternoon. They just are. The Royals are impossible to respect. They just don't seem to compete. So, a win today, with CC Sabathia on the mound, would keep the Yankees 2 games out going into the break, prevent a 3-game sweep where the team legitimately could have won the first two, and would right the ship before a little vacation.
*Get the hell out of Anaheim.
Is there a place in baseball Yankee fans hate more than Anaheim? My God, it is a house of horrors, it really is. If the Yankees get the win, they should sprint to the plane and give the pilot extra to speed out of that area. Just horrid.
*Address the rotation with real solutions.
This has become the biggest problem area for the team, no question, and the the pivot point remains Chien Mien Wang. Coming into the season there was some question as to whether Wang or AJ Burnett would actually be considered the team's number two pitcher. Burnett's stuff is electric but Wang's consistency and resume suggested he was deserving of such accolades.
At the break, Wang's entire season is in jeopardy and, even if he were to return from the DL healthy, his shaky-at-best first half makes him a real question mark. That means that one spot in the rotation, right now, is in complete limbo. Alfredo Aceves, in my opinion, is needed in the bullpen, you don't want to touch Kei Igawa with a 20-foot pole, and unless someone has been really, realy wrong on the future for Sergio Mitre (which is always a possibility) he doesn't seem to be a long-term answer for this team either.
What makes the conversation even more tricky is that Joba Chamberlain and Andy Pettitte have both been experiencing recent struggles. But, in all honesty, what can you do with either one? You aren't gonna move Phil Hughes into the rotation and move out Joba. Why? First, because Joba still, despite his troubles and his surreal post-game press conferences where he seems to be in the beginning stages of true denial, deserves more of a chance to struggle through and prove himself as a starter. Seventeen starts this season isn't enough of a sampling and his recent struggles shouldn't overshadown the fact that, for the most part this year, he has been pretty good. If he can get back to what he was a month ago, he will be valuable to the Yankees.
Second, there is no guarantee that Hughes would be significantly better than Joba in the rotation. It wasn't like the youngster was coming off three shutouts when he was moved to the rotation. Third, Hughes is finally, for the first time since that game in Texas in 07, showing the type of stuff and ability that had the Yankees refusing to trade him for Johan Santana a few years ago. Do you really want to ping-pong this kid back and forth and threaten his arm? Fourth, Joba, right now, has a problem with his control, with his velocity, and with the big inning. That doesn't sound like a recipe for success in the pen. Whatever is ailing him right now, it is foolish to think it would be solved by a move to the pen. His lack of control and lack-luster velocity could make him a liability at the end of close games. Fifth, and finally, moving Joba doesn't solve the other two problems, so why do it?
If Wang can't come back and Pettitte remains this inconsistent, the Yankees will need to make a move for a pitcher.
Who?
Forget, and I mean FORGET, Roy Halladay. I don't think they are moving him in Toronto anyway, but if they did they aren't sending him packing to a team that would show up in their home ballpark 9 or 10 times a year. Cliff Lee? The Indians would probably be willing to move him for a steep price and it is hard for me to believe that Brian Cashman, who two years ago wouldn't part with Hughes for Santana or Ian Kennedy for Dan Haren, would be willing to give up a lot for an older Cliff Lee.
No, I think, if the Yankees were going to make a trade for the starter, it would be in the vein of a Jon Garland, who has pitched well over his last 6 starts for the Diamondbacks. Some other notables who might be available come the end of the month:
Jason Marquis, Colorado: The Rockies recent resurgence might mean Marquis is off the market, but if not, he has the type of stuff the Yankees could use (sinker) and has pitched in the Rockies, so the new launching pad in the Bronx wouldn't be a shock to the system to the 30-year old righty. However, it might take more to get him than some other, more expensive options.
Erick Bedard, Mariners: Here are the positives - Bedard is a hard-throwing lefty, he has pitched, and pitched well, in the AL East before, he has top-quality stuff, and after a terribly disappointing year last year he has been very good this year, pitching to a 2.58 ERA, 73 strikeouts in 69 innings, and only allowing 56 hits. Here are the negatives - he has already spent time on the DL this year after an injury plagued season last year, he is 30 so, while not old by any means, he isn't a kid, and perhaps most disturbing, no one seems to like the guy. His "character" issues seem to be very real.
But, he does have a large contract and the Mariners might be willing to take less to get him off the team. If the Yankees could find a reason to believe Bedard is not as bad a guy as some have painted him, it might make for a great trade for the team as Bedard, when right, can be as good as anyone.
Jonathan Sanchez, Giants: Sanchez is a lefty, has great stuff, is only 26, and just threw a no-hitter. But Sanchez's no-no only helped him lower his ERA to 4.68, so it isn't as if Sanchez has been a show stopper this entire season. The Giants might ask for more, in terms of a potential bat, for Sanchez now that he threw the no-no than they would have before, but it is still likely that the price wouldn't be all that high. Erik Hinske is looking pretty good right now, isn't he? How about Hinske, Juan Miranda, and a throw in for Sanchez. I would do that trade. Would the Giants? Perhaps. Would Sanchez be better than what the Yankees have now? If nothing else, it would give them yet another live lefty arm that is under 30. If he ever figured it out for the Yanks, it could potentially be a steal.
*Let's look at the outfield, please.
The offense has been fine, but I am still very wary of running Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera out there on a day-in and day-out basis. I think Swisher would be best suited as a part-time player - someone with some pop off the bench, who can play all outfield positions and, when needed, first base. Melky could be used as trade bait now that he has played well enough to, I'm sure, raise some team's interest, and the Yankees could really use someone in right field that would be a fixture. Swisher's defense is shaky at best and Melky just doesn't hit for enough power, in an outfield devoid of power when Swisher sits, to constitute more playing time.
Who would work for the Yankees?
Vernon Well, Toronto: I know, I know........Wells contract is HUGE. I get that. But what if the Yankees could convince the Jays to eat SOME of the contract? For instance, Wells right now will be owed $98.5 million over the length of his contract (through 2014). Would the Jays be willing to pick up $40 million? Would that be enough to make a trade worth it for the Yankees? That would essentially mean the Yankees would be paying $58.5 million for Wells for 5 years. That averages out to about $11.7 million per year. For the Jays, that would average out to around $8 million per year. Would they be willing to do that, considering that, right now, they would be paying Wells an average of $19.7 million over the next five years.
Here is why I would consider making the deal: He is only 30 years old, which means he isn't near the end of his career; he is a very good defensive player and, at this point, could be moved to right field where he would be an elite corner outfield defender; last year, in 108 games, he hit 20 homers and drove in 78 RBI, while this year he is on pace for 16 homers and 68 RBI, 20+ steals and 41 doubles; he is only 2 1/2 years removed from a 32 homer, 106 RBI season; if you take into account the way the ball jumps out of Yankee Stadium, his power numbers might jump; because of his salary, even if the Blue Jays ate some of the contract, he would essentially cost no major prospects.
Is it worth the money to take on a great defensive player, good clubhouse guy, only 30 years old, who could still have special years ahead of him?
I know it aint my money but it could be worth the risk, and since the Yankees seem to be adverse to giving up their prospects, money deals are what they will be left with.
Probably won't happen, but worth the discussion.
Alex Rios, Toronto: I am a big fan of Rios and this is probably more doeable than the Wells idea I had. Rios is 28, a very good right fielder, has always killed the Yankees, steals some bases, hits for a decent amount of power, and is getting paid top dollar while only producing at a second-tier level. Rios is owed another $6o million by the Blue Jays, meaning they would look at this as a salary dump more than anything.
The problem with this is simple: Rios is younger than Wells, probably at this point a little better, and is owed less money. That means that more teams will be in on any potential deal. While it is fiscally smarter to try and trade for Rios, Wells would only cost you money. Plus, with more teams involved in Rios, it is likely the Jays would choose to trade him outta devision, whereas Wells could probably be had by anyone who showed some serious interest.
Matt Holliday, Oakland: Holliday can be had and everyone knows it. However, how good is Holliday anyway? For instance, if you're the Yankees, why wouldn't you go after Wells as opposed to Holliday? Look at what he has done this year away from Colorado: .276, 8, 43, .373, .419.
Wells' numbers are every bit as good, and he's only a year older. Yet, everyone assumes Holliday is in line for a huge pay day, courtesy of being a Boras client, and some have even suggested the yankees will be bidders for his services. Why?
I would avoid Holliday at all costs.
David DeJesus, Kansas City: He's a New York native, good defender, having a bad year. He isn't gonna hit for a lot of power but he'll do the little things to help a team win.
Ryan Garko, Cleveland Indians: Garko is the team's first baseman right now, but he has played 11 games this year in the outfield and made one error while out there. I can't speak intelligently about how good Garko is or can be in the outfield, but the Indians have soured on the 28-year old and he might be easily gettable.
He has more power, has a good eye, and doesn't strike out a lot. It might be worth a shot.
*More Brett Gardner, please.
Gardner appears to be entrenched in center field right now, but in the ever changing world of Joe Girardi you never, ever know. The speedy Gardner is a better defensive player than Melky and he makes more things happen with his legs. Melky has more pop and a better arm, but neither advantage is so pronounced that it should give him playing time over Melky.
I think Cabrera might be a valuable fourth outfielder on the team and, if the right deal came along, could be someone's center fielder, but Gardner brings more and should be allowed to show that for the rest of the season.
Because, really, the All Star break is the mid-point of the season in terms of assessment. By this time, a lot of the pretenders have fallen away, a lot of the contenders have established themselves in the race, and most importantly, everyone should have, by now, assessed their needs.
The Yankees are significantly better than they were last year and, before the last two games in Anaheim, were rolling along, looking like world beaters. The Angels have a tendency to change that view for the Yankees, but it still doesn't change the fact that the first half for the Yankees was a successful one.
So, what do the Yankees need to take the next step? I have put together a small list of needs and possible ways to fill those needs.
*Win Today Baby!!!!!!!!!!!
The Red Sox are going to win this afternoon. They just are. The Royals are impossible to respect. They just don't seem to compete. So, a win today, with CC Sabathia on the mound, would keep the Yankees 2 games out going into the break, prevent a 3-game sweep where the team legitimately could have won the first two, and would right the ship before a little vacation.
*Get the hell out of Anaheim.
Is there a place in baseball Yankee fans hate more than Anaheim? My God, it is a house of horrors, it really is. If the Yankees get the win, they should sprint to the plane and give the pilot extra to speed out of that area. Just horrid.
*Address the rotation with real solutions.
This has become the biggest problem area for the team, no question, and the the pivot point remains Chien Mien Wang. Coming into the season there was some question as to whether Wang or AJ Burnett would actually be considered the team's number two pitcher. Burnett's stuff is electric but Wang's consistency and resume suggested he was deserving of such accolades.
At the break, Wang's entire season is in jeopardy and, even if he were to return from the DL healthy, his shaky-at-best first half makes him a real question mark. That means that one spot in the rotation, right now, is in complete limbo. Alfredo Aceves, in my opinion, is needed in the bullpen, you don't want to touch Kei Igawa with a 20-foot pole, and unless someone has been really, realy wrong on the future for Sergio Mitre (which is always a possibility) he doesn't seem to be a long-term answer for this team either.
What makes the conversation even more tricky is that Joba Chamberlain and Andy Pettitte have both been experiencing recent struggles. But, in all honesty, what can you do with either one? You aren't gonna move Phil Hughes into the rotation and move out Joba. Why? First, because Joba still, despite his troubles and his surreal post-game press conferences where he seems to be in the beginning stages of true denial, deserves more of a chance to struggle through and prove himself as a starter. Seventeen starts this season isn't enough of a sampling and his recent struggles shouldn't overshadown the fact that, for the most part this year, he has been pretty good. If he can get back to what he was a month ago, he will be valuable to the Yankees.
Second, there is no guarantee that Hughes would be significantly better than Joba in the rotation. It wasn't like the youngster was coming off three shutouts when he was moved to the rotation. Third, Hughes is finally, for the first time since that game in Texas in 07, showing the type of stuff and ability that had the Yankees refusing to trade him for Johan Santana a few years ago. Do you really want to ping-pong this kid back and forth and threaten his arm? Fourth, Joba, right now, has a problem with his control, with his velocity, and with the big inning. That doesn't sound like a recipe for success in the pen. Whatever is ailing him right now, it is foolish to think it would be solved by a move to the pen. His lack of control and lack-luster velocity could make him a liability at the end of close games. Fifth, and finally, moving Joba doesn't solve the other two problems, so why do it?
If Wang can't come back and Pettitte remains this inconsistent, the Yankees will need to make a move for a pitcher.
Who?
Forget, and I mean FORGET, Roy Halladay. I don't think they are moving him in Toronto anyway, but if they did they aren't sending him packing to a team that would show up in their home ballpark 9 or 10 times a year. Cliff Lee? The Indians would probably be willing to move him for a steep price and it is hard for me to believe that Brian Cashman, who two years ago wouldn't part with Hughes for Santana or Ian Kennedy for Dan Haren, would be willing to give up a lot for an older Cliff Lee.
No, I think, if the Yankees were going to make a trade for the starter, it would be in the vein of a Jon Garland, who has pitched well over his last 6 starts for the Diamondbacks. Some other notables who might be available come the end of the month:
Jason Marquis, Colorado: The Rockies recent resurgence might mean Marquis is off the market, but if not, he has the type of stuff the Yankees could use (sinker) and has pitched in the Rockies, so the new launching pad in the Bronx wouldn't be a shock to the system to the 30-year old righty. However, it might take more to get him than some other, more expensive options.
Erick Bedard, Mariners: Here are the positives - Bedard is a hard-throwing lefty, he has pitched, and pitched well, in the AL East before, he has top-quality stuff, and after a terribly disappointing year last year he has been very good this year, pitching to a 2.58 ERA, 73 strikeouts in 69 innings, and only allowing 56 hits. Here are the negatives - he has already spent time on the DL this year after an injury plagued season last year, he is 30 so, while not old by any means, he isn't a kid, and perhaps most disturbing, no one seems to like the guy. His "character" issues seem to be very real.
But, he does have a large contract and the Mariners might be willing to take less to get him off the team. If the Yankees could find a reason to believe Bedard is not as bad a guy as some have painted him, it might make for a great trade for the team as Bedard, when right, can be as good as anyone.
Jonathan Sanchez, Giants: Sanchez is a lefty, has great stuff, is only 26, and just threw a no-hitter. But Sanchez's no-no only helped him lower his ERA to 4.68, so it isn't as if Sanchez has been a show stopper this entire season. The Giants might ask for more, in terms of a potential bat, for Sanchez now that he threw the no-no than they would have before, but it is still likely that the price wouldn't be all that high. Erik Hinske is looking pretty good right now, isn't he? How about Hinske, Juan Miranda, and a throw in for Sanchez. I would do that trade. Would the Giants? Perhaps. Would Sanchez be better than what the Yankees have now? If nothing else, it would give them yet another live lefty arm that is under 30. If he ever figured it out for the Yanks, it could potentially be a steal.
*Let's look at the outfield, please.
The offense has been fine, but I am still very wary of running Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera out there on a day-in and day-out basis. I think Swisher would be best suited as a part-time player - someone with some pop off the bench, who can play all outfield positions and, when needed, first base. Melky could be used as trade bait now that he has played well enough to, I'm sure, raise some team's interest, and the Yankees could really use someone in right field that would be a fixture. Swisher's defense is shaky at best and Melky just doesn't hit for enough power, in an outfield devoid of power when Swisher sits, to constitute more playing time.
Who would work for the Yankees?
Vernon Well, Toronto: I know, I know........Wells contract is HUGE. I get that. But what if the Yankees could convince the Jays to eat SOME of the contract? For instance, Wells right now will be owed $98.5 million over the length of his contract (through 2014). Would the Jays be willing to pick up $40 million? Would that be enough to make a trade worth it for the Yankees? That would essentially mean the Yankees would be paying $58.5 million for Wells for 5 years. That averages out to about $11.7 million per year. For the Jays, that would average out to around $8 million per year. Would they be willing to do that, considering that, right now, they would be paying Wells an average of $19.7 million over the next five years.
Here is why I would consider making the deal: He is only 30 years old, which means he isn't near the end of his career; he is a very good defensive player and, at this point, could be moved to right field where he would be an elite corner outfield defender; last year, in 108 games, he hit 20 homers and drove in 78 RBI, while this year he is on pace for 16 homers and 68 RBI, 20+ steals and 41 doubles; he is only 2 1/2 years removed from a 32 homer, 106 RBI season; if you take into account the way the ball jumps out of Yankee Stadium, his power numbers might jump; because of his salary, even if the Blue Jays ate some of the contract, he would essentially cost no major prospects.
Is it worth the money to take on a great defensive player, good clubhouse guy, only 30 years old, who could still have special years ahead of him?
I know it aint my money but it could be worth the risk, and since the Yankees seem to be adverse to giving up their prospects, money deals are what they will be left with.
Probably won't happen, but worth the discussion.
Alex Rios, Toronto: I am a big fan of Rios and this is probably more doeable than the Wells idea I had. Rios is 28, a very good right fielder, has always killed the Yankees, steals some bases, hits for a decent amount of power, and is getting paid top dollar while only producing at a second-tier level. Rios is owed another $6o million by the Blue Jays, meaning they would look at this as a salary dump more than anything.
The problem with this is simple: Rios is younger than Wells, probably at this point a little better, and is owed less money. That means that more teams will be in on any potential deal. While it is fiscally smarter to try and trade for Rios, Wells would only cost you money. Plus, with more teams involved in Rios, it is likely the Jays would choose to trade him outta devision, whereas Wells could probably be had by anyone who showed some serious interest.
Matt Holliday, Oakland: Holliday can be had and everyone knows it. However, how good is Holliday anyway? For instance, if you're the Yankees, why wouldn't you go after Wells as opposed to Holliday? Look at what he has done this year away from Colorado: .276, 8, 43, .373, .419.
Wells' numbers are every bit as good, and he's only a year older. Yet, everyone assumes Holliday is in line for a huge pay day, courtesy of being a Boras client, and some have even suggested the yankees will be bidders for his services. Why?
I would avoid Holliday at all costs.
David DeJesus, Kansas City: He's a New York native, good defender, having a bad year. He isn't gonna hit for a lot of power but he'll do the little things to help a team win.
Ryan Garko, Cleveland Indians: Garko is the team's first baseman right now, but he has played 11 games this year in the outfield and made one error while out there. I can't speak intelligently about how good Garko is or can be in the outfield, but the Indians have soured on the 28-year old and he might be easily gettable.
He has more power, has a good eye, and doesn't strike out a lot. It might be worth a shot.
*More Brett Gardner, please.
Gardner appears to be entrenched in center field right now, but in the ever changing world of Joe Girardi you never, ever know. The speedy Gardner is a better defensive player than Melky and he makes more things happen with his legs. Melky has more pop and a better arm, but neither advantage is so pronounced that it should give him playing time over Melky.
I think Cabrera might be a valuable fourth outfielder on the team and, if the right deal came along, could be someone's center fielder, but Gardner brings more and should be allowed to show that for the rest of the season.
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