The Lohud Yankee Blog had a good post this morning where they looked at the top of the rotation type guys on each team and tried to decide if any of them would be available. As you can imagine, on almost all the top-flight guys, the answer was a resounding "NO." But, I think all of us Yankee fans fully expect that the team is going to have to look at second-tier players rather than high-end guys, at least at this stage of the game. So, instead of talking about pitchers the Yankees wouldn't be able to pry away from their current team, let's look at guys that might be available.
This is a very short list of guys that might be available on teams that might deal with the Yankees. Most have flaws, most have high-end rewards. It all depends on what the other team wants, and what the Yanks are willing to give up.
Fausto Carmona (Cleveland Indians) - Carmona has probably been the most prominent name mentioned when it comes to possible trade chips. He's 27, has $5 million coming to him next year, is locked up through 2014 for a very reasonable price, and put up a good year last season with a 3.77 ERA. Any Yankee fan worth his or her salt remembers Carmona from 2007, when he dominated the Yankees, ended Joe Torre's tenure in New York, and looked like a special pitcher that was just coming into his own. If you take 2007 and 2010 and combine them, they tell the story of a top-caliber pitcher who throws a hard sinker, ala Cien Mien Wang, only with a few more strikeouts. The problem is the two years inbetween.
In 2008 and 2009, Carmona was, to put it mildly, ineffective. He was even sent down to the minors at one point to try and figure things out. His good is very good, his bad is very bad.
So, if the Yankees were to inquire about Carmona, there would be a natural tug of war between they and the Indians. On the one hand, the Yankees would be reluctant to give up top-quality prospects for a guy that has as many terrible years as good years to his name as a starter. Can you imagine how much justifiable venom would be directed at Brian Cashman if he traded, say, Austin Romine and another player for Carmona and, in two years, Carmona was pitching to a 5 ERA and Romine was doing his best Buster Posey imitation? Not fun times.
On the flip side, however, the Indians are in need of good players, are in the middle of rebuilding, have a young, affordable pitcher coming off a very good year. Why in the world would they hand the Yanks this guy for, say, a few second-tier prospects, or even high-risk, high-reward guys like Joba Chamberlain?
Carmona only makes sense for the Yankees if the cost is reasonable, because there is too much of a risk that he reverts back to 2009 numbers. But, it might not make sense for the Indians to trade a 27-year old pitcher with good talent off a top year for a "reasonable" price.
Gavin Floyd (Chicago White Sox) - Here is another name you've heard bantered around. I am still unclear as to why the White Sox, who picked up Adam Dunn and seem to believe they can make a run this season, would trade Floyd, but the rumors have been persistent enough to make you believe there is some fire near the smoke.
I like Floyd a lot. He's 27, like Carmona, owed only $2.7 million this year, had a 4.08 ERA last year, and ever since he was made a full-time starter three years ago, that's been about his norm. A lot of people thought Floyd would be a top-end of the rotation guy, so maybe the White Sox willingness to trade him stems as much from disappointment that he hasn't reached that full potential as it does from anything else. But, if the Yankees could secure him, he would give them a viable #3 starter and, at 27, a guy who could be a fixture in the rotation for years. And, at 27, there is still a possibility that he can fulfill his potential. Maybe different scenery could help.
Yet, the question as always is, what, exactly, are you looking to give up? Would the White Sox demand an Austin Romine, or a top-end pitcher? Maybe they would be interested in Chamberlain as either a reliever or a starter, as a part of a package, or course. They need some help up the middle, so maybe the Yankees could entice them with an Eduardo Nunez? For a guy like Floyd, you really couldn't justify top prospects, but some second-tier guys might be able to do it.
Jonathan Sanchez (San Francisco Giants) - No rumors have circulated about Sanchez, but if the Giants are looking to upgrade offensively, Sanchez might give them the best option to secure some hitters without giving up one of their prized pitchers in Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, or youngster Madison Bumgardner. Why would the Yankees want him? Well, he's 28, makes $2 million, had a 3.07 ERA last year, is a lefty with strikeout stuff, and pitched almost 200 innings last season. He also had, for the most part, a good postseason and helped the Giants win a title.
Why would the Giants trade him? As I said before, Sanchez, because of the Giants depth of pitching, is expendable if they want to bring back a good hitter. The Giants won last year with great pitching and timely hitting. Problem is, that timely hitting isn't always going to be there, especially when the guys playing the field have a less than impressive resume to their name. That offense was deemed to be lacking last year, when they started their magic carpet ride. It's hard to imagine they could conjure that kind of magic again. Trading Sanchez gives them the chance to get better offensively and stay at the top, pitching wise.
Why it wouldn't work? Well, again, who would the Giants want? Jesus Montero aint being traded for Jonathan Sanchez and the Giants already have Buster Posey behind the plate. Would the Yankees consider Nick Swisher in a deal? Doubtful. Would the Giants give him up for not-MLB-ready talent? Doubtful.
There is also the fact that Sanchez had a breakout year this year. Before this, he had been a hard-throwing disappointment who had about a 5 ERA, on average. Is Sanchez just coming into his own, or is he Oliver Perez? When there is a chance he could be Ollie, you probably wouldn't be comfortable trading top talent for him.
Anibal Sanchez (Flordia Marlins) - The Marlins aren't trading Josh Johnson, but Sanchez is an underrated young pitcher (26) who probably won't make an untouchable lists. He had a 3.55 ERA last year and was probably the team's second best pitcher.
I threw his name on here because, if the Yanks were going to make a deal for a Marlins pitcher, he makes sense for them over Johnson (unavailable) or Ricky Nolasco (no good) but, in reality, I would shocked if the Marlins would give him up. He's affordable, good, young - why would you trade him?
Scott Kazmir (Anaheim Angels) - This, to me, could be the most interesting guy. I have no idea of the Angels would be interested in trading him, but Kazmir is extremely talented, has pitched, and pitched well, in the AL East before, and is still only 26. He's owed $8 million and he's coming off a God-awful year where he had a 5.94 ERA and only pitched in 150 innings.
Here are the reasons to be turned off: he's had a lot of injury problems already and he might be just a 5 or 6 inning pitcher; he was bad last year, really bad; I have no idea what his medicals look like, or what affect those injuries have had on his velocity, the key to his success.
Here are the reasons to be intrigued: as everyone knows, when he is on, there is no more talented pitcher in baseball; he's a lefty; he has a GREAT track record against the Red Sox, especially in Fenway; you could get him cheap (if he's available) considering the risks that come along with him.
Everyone has mentioned Zambrano as high-risk, high reward, but Kazmir, to me, is just as intriguing because he doesn't make as much money, is younger, is a lefty, and is a proven winner in the AL East. And how great would it be for Kazmir to resurrect his career in New York with the Yankees, not the Mets?
Saturday, December 18
Friday, December 17
So, if it didn't matter, what was the point?
t never ceases to amaze me how quickly the tone, and narrative, can change in sports. A week ago, today, New York Yankee brass, especially GM Brian Cashman, were fawning over now-Phillie pitcher Cliff Lee like a love-sick 13-year old girl hanging boy-band pictures on her wall. Did you ever think you would hear a grown man say things like “he's worth the wait,” when talking about a free agent? I mean, come on Cash-man. Have some dignity. He might as well have said “Lee completes me.”
The fanbase was little better. Lee was a forgone conclusion to most, and a quick check of the blogs and message boards would have found most fans lining up exactly how the rotation should look on opening day, and who the fifth starter should be on the off-chance Andy Pettitte did not return.
Seven days ago, Cliff Lee was the answer, the antidote to AJ Burnett's rollecoaster ride of a career, to Phil Hughes' stunted growth, to the possible retirement of Pettitte, and so on.
Now, on Dec. 15? Ahhh, who needed the bum, anyway.
One can hardly blame Cashman for moving on as quickly as Sarah Palin when a question about geography comes up. He's the General Manager, not a fan, and he has to refocus quickly because there suddenly aint a tremendous amount of time to get things done. But, the fans, and mouthpiece media personalities, have been more enjoyable since Tuesday morning.
Here is the new narrative:
*Lee is 32, and a 7-year contract would have been outrageous (it amazes me how many Yankee fans have suddenly taken an interest in Yankee budgetology)
*Lee didn't want to come here anyway, so fine (a legitimate point, probably the only one that's been brought up in the last 36 hours)
*Lee isn't that good, anyway (might as well be followed by “and he's ugly, and smells like cabbage”)
*Lee got blown up in the World Series, proving he isn't automatic in the big spot (and Michael Jordan missed plenty of last-second shots, does that mean you would have wanted Bill Worthington taking the shot?)
*Lee has a bad back (certainly something to be worried about, but it didn't seem to affect him in any way in the postseason when he was spanking the Yankees around)
*The Yankees have a good enough team without Lee (then why in the hell was everyone from Brian Cashman to the concession stand attendants at Yankee Stadium willing to wait until the Beatles reunited for Lee to make a decision?)
Let me expound a little on two points made above: the budgetology fixation by Yankee fans, and the idea that the Yankees are “just fine” without Lee.
First, I have never, and will never understand the interest some fans have in the Yankee payroll. There is no cap in baseball. The Yankees can spend whatever they want, and they usually do. The only time fans should care about contracts is when a.) there is a cap (see NFL, NBA) or, b.) when they root for a small market team. If I'm a fan of the Cleveland Indians and my team is looking to offer a 7-year, $138 million offer to ANYONE, I get interested. Why? Because I know my little team only has so much money with which to play. Spend too much money on one guy, and it might be him and eight minor leaguers running out there every summer day.
But, as a fan of the Yankees, or Red Sox, or, now, the Phillies, why worry? You don't know anything about their finances so you have no idea what their cutoff point would be to begin with. No one can gauge when their payroll becomes a burden because they change that number all the time. The Yankees say they won't go over $200 million, then skate by that when necessary. The Red Sox claim they won't go over the luxury tax number, but then speed by it when Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzelez come to play. The Phillies, as late as Friday of last week, were saying it would take a small miracle to work Lee into their budget. Hallelujah, heaven be praised cause that miracle came true.
See, those teams have A LOT of money. Are you really “concerned” as a fan about what kind of constraints a Cliff Lee deal was going to put on the Yankee budget in seven freaking years? Really?
“Well, Bob, Lee would help win the Yankees a championship next season, but I am really concerned about 2016.” Seriously? Who the hell cares? You don't think that, by that time, the Yankees will have figured out how to absorb that bad contract? They have every other time.
Budgetology, to me, is like sabermetrics: it focuses on things that don't really have to do with the sport. For some people, I guess, sitting down and trying to figure out what the long-term player personnel costs will be for the Yankees between 2015 and 2020 is fun. To me, it's a collossal waste of time.
The second point is that the Yankees are fine without Lee.
Let's just say that, if the Yankees honestly believed they were “fine” without Lee, they wouldn't have willingly bent over for the last three weeks hoping that he wouldn't jam anything up there (which, of course, he did). I'll say it again, Brian Cashman acted like a lovesick cheerleader with a crush on the quarterback. Do you think he would do that if he felt great about Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre anchoring the final two spots in the rotation?
But, if you needed a little more indepth analysis as to why the Yanks are not better off without Lee, or even “just fine,” here you go:
*AJ Burnett is still a Yankee — That's your number two starter, folks. The Burnett train is in the station and ready for departure, prepare for the very real, all but certain chance that you'll be going off the rails on some point during your journey.
Look, the Yanks can say all the right things about Burnett having a “bounceback” year and recharging his career, and they can also try as they might to paint his first year with the Yankees as some sort of pitching clinic put on for the benefit of the baseball world. The truth is, Burnett has only had one year in his career (2008) that justifies him being thought of as anything other than a number 3 or 4 starter. Okay, want to say his 2009 season, with a 4.07 ERA and 13-9 record was more of a number 2 starter type of year, maybe, but that's pretty much the pinnacle for Mr. Face Cream Pie maker. Now, suddenly, at 34, our buddy AJ is gonna become a front-line starter? Again, let's review: AJ Burnett, in an 11-year career, has won more than 13 games just once. In his two years with the Yankees, his record is 23-24. Think about that for a second. AJ Burnett, playing for a team with one of the best offensives in baseball, has a below .500 record and found a way to lose 15 games last year. He's your number two starter.
*Phil Hughes is just OK — Look, I will readily admit that I have been down on Hughes for a long time. I just don't see the "greatness" that was predicted. Several of my buddies are big Hughes fans, and they will rightfully point out in these discussions that Hughes, in his first full year as a starter, won 18 games and had an ERA that was just over 4. I give him credit for that, I really do. However, is that all we can expect from The Franchise?
Forget the fact that the Yankees consistently refused to trade Hughes for better MLB-proven talent over the years (you don't hang onto the guy if you think his ceiling is Jon Garland), without Lee in the picture, and with an aged, perhaps less than excited Andy Pettitte maybe returning, you NEED Hughes to be better. Let's face it, you need him to be your second guy in the rotation, simple as that. Can he do it?
I won't string up Hughes the way I did Burnett, and tie his resume to his throat, because unlike Burnett who has more than a decade of futility to prove he isn't a front-line starter, Hughes has only one full year as a starter and a few other years of bouncing around between the rotation and the pen. However, I will say this: when your fastball tops out at 93 MPH and is straight as an arrow, when your curveball doesn't fool a stick ball player in the streets of Brooklyn, and when you can't throw a third pitch to save your life, well then, it's kinda hard to predict greatness, especially in year two. Instead, the best bet is that Hughes essentially is the pitcher in 2011 that he was in 2010. With Lee, that's just fine. Without Lee, that's a problem.
*Andy Pettitte is old and maybe not all that into baseball - We don't even know if Andy is gonna come back but, seriously, how much can you expect from the man? He's almost 40, dealt with two fairly significant injuries last year, and is having probably the most difficult time ever deciding whether to come back or not. It's a lot to expect that he is gonna go out there, pitch 200 innings, post 15+ wins, and record a 4 or lower ERA. And, at some point, a $200 million team can't continue to put the fate of the rotation on the shoulders of a 40-year old man, right?
*In-house options kinda suck - I like Ivan Nova a lot, I really do.I think he has some big-time stuff. But, he has had less than a month of experience at the major league level and, in that month, showed that, while the talent is there, the maturity isn't. In almost every game he pitched last year, Nova imploded after the fourth or fifth inning. Considering Burnett imploded after the third inning most days, that aint that bad of a record, but you can't send that kid out there over the course of the season.
Sergio Mitre? I don't think I need to explain why Sergio Mitre is not a viable solution for a championship-caliber rotation, right?
The Yankees have some really good young arms in the minors, including Manny Banuelos, who seems to have become somewhat of a superstar in the Yankee system, much heralded Andrew Brackman, and Dellin Betances are all top-quality arms, but none of them are ready for the big time right now.
*Trade for who? - Okay, Lee is gone, the chance to simply spend money is out the window, and the only thing left to do is trade for someone. So, who's out there?
We've already heard that King Felix Hernandez aint going no where, it's hard to imagine the Giants will be interested in giving away any of their arms, considering they just used them all to secure a championship for the first time in 50+ years, and unless I am very wrong, the Red Sox probably aren't proposing a Jon Lester for Brett Gardner deal in the near future. That means the Yanks either go into next season much like they ended the last one, or they trade for a low-grade option, considering the royalty they were just in the running to land.
Maybe the Indians are willing to part with Fausto Carmona for a collection of mid-level prospects. Maybe the Cubs need to part ways with Carlos Zambrano, and maybe Big Z would like a reunion with his old pitching coach. Maybe Ricky Nolasco is a lot better than his record, or talent, indicates. Maybe Freddy Garcia is more than a medical marvel whose arm might literally be made of jelly at this point.
You get the drift. There isn't one sure thing in the group. At this point, the Yankees, and their fans, would be THRILLED with high risk, high reward pitchers like Carmona and Zambrano, guys who would have had the fan base screaming on talk radio if they had been mentioned before Lee turned tail and ran for the City of Brotherly Love.
So, you see, signing Lee was kinda important. It was important because the Yankees spent their whole offseason waiting on his decision, an offseason that saw needed bullpen help pass them by as they sat by the phone like a jilted college coed. It was important because the Yankees now enter next year with a whole lot of question marks in the worst place in which to have them: the rotation and pen. It was also important because, now, even if that front-line starter does become available, it will probably require them to trade Jesus Montero, their prized prospect and the best hitting prospect in all the minors, to complete the deal.
This isn't just about next year, this is about the next five years, as the Yankees won't have the luxury to just throwing money at a pitcher to bring them in,
But, like so many Yankee fans have said the last few days, who needs him....
Maybe the Indians are willing to part with Fausto Carmona for a collection of mid-level prospects. Maybe the Cubs need to part ways with Carlos Zambrano, and maybe Big Z would like a reunion with his old pitching coach. Maybe Ricky Nolasco is a lot better than his record, or talent, indicates. Maybe Freddy Garcia is more than a medical marvel whose arm might literally be made of jelly at this point.
You get the drift. There isn't one sure thing in the group. At this point, the Yankees, and their fans, would be THRILLED with high risk, high reward pitchers like Carmona and Zambrano, guys who would have had the fan base screaming on talk radio if they had been mentioned before Lee turned tail and ran for the City of Brotherly Love.
So, you see, signing Lee was kinda important. It was important because the Yankees spent their whole offseason waiting on his decision, an offseason that saw needed bullpen help pass them by as they sat by the phone like a jilted college coed. It was important because the Yankees now enter next year with a whole lot of question marks in the worst place in which to have them: the rotation and pen. It was also important because, now, even if that front-line starter does become available, it will probably require them to trade Jesus Montero, their prized prospect and the best hitting prospect in all the minors, to complete the deal.
This isn't just about next year, this is about the next five years, as the Yankees won't have the luxury to just throwing money at a pitcher to bring them in,
But, like so many Yankee fans have said the last few days, who needs him....
Saturday, September 18
Thank you, Joe. You're welcome back here anytime.
I know Joe Torre wrote a book that really bothered a lot of people within the Yankee organization. I know Brian Cashman wasn't pleased that he was protrayed as a guy who became beholden to the designer stats of the day and, in the end, refused to stand up for Torre the way he had in the past. I know the Steinbrenner family was upset that Torre essentially outed how sick The Boss, George Steinbrenner, was by the time the 2007 season ended. We all know that Alex Rodriguez isn't a fan of Torre after his book painted the slugger as a self-absorbed prima donna who obsessed over Derek Jeter and couldn't come through in the clutch.
All of that is valid.
And, I know Joe Torre continues to hold a grudge against the Yankees for essentially forcing him out, but not having the guts to outright let him go for fear of the inevitable public relations backlash.
Again, valid.
However, if Joe Torre is truly done as a manager, and will now retreat to a job on television or, perhaps, with Major League Baseball, it is my hope that all old hard feelings subside and Torre can once again find a home with the Yankees.
Joe Torre is one of the great New York Yankees in history, as far as managers go. He led that team to four world championships. He was a part of a golden era for the Yankees, a dynasty, not just a string of good teams.
Some of his best managerial jobs came when the Yankees didn't even get out of the first round of the playoffs. If you have a chance on a slow Saturday afternoon (or a slow day at work) go check out the roster of the 2005 and 2006 teams, especially the starting rotations. Joe Girardi would have had a hard time winning 88 games with Aaron Small leading the way for half a season.
It's gotten somewhat foolish on the YES Network these days. Torre has been all but expunged from the Yankee history. There are no Yankeeography specials broadcast anymore. No more highlights of Torre crying after the 1996 championship. It's as if the Bombers managed themselves between 1996 and 2007.
But, what happens in the next six years when the Yankees want to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the '96 championship (my God, has it been that long) and everyone from Paul O'Neill to Tino Martinez, to Bernie Williams, to perhaps a recently retired Derek Jeter, show up at the stadium. Is Joe Torre going to be forgotten, even then?
Yogi Berra swore he would never set foot back in Yankee Stadium after George Steinbrenner calously fired one of the great Yankees of all time after only 17 games in 1982, and didn't even have the decency to speak to him personally. In 1999, he returned. Joe Torre is a Yankee icon. I hope for all our sake, and for his, this petty squabbling can be set aside and he can be welcomes back with open arms. The Yankees handled his departure about as poorly as possible. Torre perhaps could have been more diplomatic in his book about the Yankee years. Both share some of the blame for the split. Neither side did something so egregious that it should detract from what was acheived during those years. Joe Torre cannot be wiped off Yankee history. He had too much to do with writing that history, no matter what a schmuck like Michael Kay wants to believe.
A quick note about Donnie Baseball taking over as the Dodgers manager next year. I hope for his sake that the Dodgers get good again, and fast. I love Donnie and believe he will make a great manager. He knows the game, knows the players, and is one of the most respected guys in the sport. The idea that some Triple A guy in the Dodgers organization should have gotten the call over Mattingly is, to me, absurd. Donnie has been a long-time coach in this league, and was, at one time, one of the best players in the league, a guy who would have punched his ticket to Cooperstown easily had it not been for his back injuries. You honestly believe that some no-name Triple A guy is going to command more respect in the clubhouse than Don Mattingly? (yes, I'm looking at you when I say that, Edurado Perez)
What concerns me is the Dodgers. Frank McCourt is going through his blitzkrieg of a divorce and much of the speculation is that, for a team with talent, there will be little done in the offseason to compliment that talent and help the Dodgers regain NL West-leading form. If Donnie is given the right roster, I believe the Dodgers can once again be a contender. However, if the McCourt family's woes prevent any kind of action, I have no idea how, exactly, Donnie can turn that team around.
It will be tough, though, if Donnie starts to win, to see him celebrating in Dodger blue. Can we trade managers? Is that possible? Girardi for Mattingly, straight up?
All of that is valid.
And, I know Joe Torre continues to hold a grudge against the Yankees for essentially forcing him out, but not having the guts to outright let him go for fear of the inevitable public relations backlash.
Again, valid.
However, if Joe Torre is truly done as a manager, and will now retreat to a job on television or, perhaps, with Major League Baseball, it is my hope that all old hard feelings subside and Torre can once again find a home with the Yankees.
Joe Torre is one of the great New York Yankees in history, as far as managers go. He led that team to four world championships. He was a part of a golden era for the Yankees, a dynasty, not just a string of good teams.
Some of his best managerial jobs came when the Yankees didn't even get out of the first round of the playoffs. If you have a chance on a slow Saturday afternoon (or a slow day at work) go check out the roster of the 2005 and 2006 teams, especially the starting rotations. Joe Girardi would have had a hard time winning 88 games with Aaron Small leading the way for half a season.
It's gotten somewhat foolish on the YES Network these days. Torre has been all but expunged from the Yankee history. There are no Yankeeography specials broadcast anymore. No more highlights of Torre crying after the 1996 championship. It's as if the Bombers managed themselves between 1996 and 2007.
But, what happens in the next six years when the Yankees want to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the '96 championship (my God, has it been that long) and everyone from Paul O'Neill to Tino Martinez, to Bernie Williams, to perhaps a recently retired Derek Jeter, show up at the stadium. Is Joe Torre going to be forgotten, even then?
Yogi Berra swore he would never set foot back in Yankee Stadium after George Steinbrenner calously fired one of the great Yankees of all time after only 17 games in 1982, and didn't even have the decency to speak to him personally. In 1999, he returned. Joe Torre is a Yankee icon. I hope for all our sake, and for his, this petty squabbling can be set aside and he can be welcomes back with open arms. The Yankees handled his departure about as poorly as possible. Torre perhaps could have been more diplomatic in his book about the Yankee years. Both share some of the blame for the split. Neither side did something so egregious that it should detract from what was acheived during those years. Joe Torre cannot be wiped off Yankee history. He had too much to do with writing that history, no matter what a schmuck like Michael Kay wants to believe.
A quick note about Donnie Baseball taking over as the Dodgers manager next year. I hope for his sake that the Dodgers get good again, and fast. I love Donnie and believe he will make a great manager. He knows the game, knows the players, and is one of the most respected guys in the sport. The idea that some Triple A guy in the Dodgers organization should have gotten the call over Mattingly is, to me, absurd. Donnie has been a long-time coach in this league, and was, at one time, one of the best players in the league, a guy who would have punched his ticket to Cooperstown easily had it not been for his back injuries. You honestly believe that some no-name Triple A guy is going to command more respect in the clubhouse than Don Mattingly? (yes, I'm looking at you when I say that, Edurado Perez)
What concerns me is the Dodgers. Frank McCourt is going through his blitzkrieg of a divorce and much of the speculation is that, for a team with talent, there will be little done in the offseason to compliment that talent and help the Dodgers regain NL West-leading form. If Donnie is given the right roster, I believe the Dodgers can once again be a contender. However, if the McCourt family's woes prevent any kind of action, I have no idea how, exactly, Donnie can turn that team around.
It will be tough, though, if Donnie starts to win, to see him celebrating in Dodger blue. Can we trade managers? Is that possible? Girardi for Mattingly, straight up?
Sunday, September 5
Put the Phil Hughes Cy Young Winner celebratory cake on ice for a while.
I have not been a fan of Phil Hughes.
Part of my issue with him really has little to actually do with Hughes. He couldn't control how the Yankees promoted and hyped him, how they called him the "next Roger Clemens" (one assumes without the steroids), and how they refused to trade him for anyone. Listening to the breathless description of him as a pitcher, I was expecting to see a combination of Sandy Koufax and Jesus.
But, even though Hughes was lower on my favorite player totem pole, and even though I had serious arguements with my friends about The Franchise as a pitcher, I couldn't deny how Hughes started the season. April looked like the culmination of everything I had heard about Hughes. His fastball was exploding, his curve was 12-6, and he had great control. Unlike the other overhyped Yankee phenom, Joba Chamberlain, who was given his chance to start last year and failed, Hughes was efficient and effective every time out. My friends who insisted Hughes would find his feet crowed and I, as the Hughes detractor, admitted that I might have made a mistake. Maybe Hughes really was the next superstar pitcher in waiting.
Then May hit and things went back to normal.
In his first six starts of the season, Hughes was utterly brilliant, going 4-0 and producing a wonderful 1.38 ERA. Then, on May 17, he got bombed by the Red Sox and things have gone down hill from there. His June ERA was 5.17, his July ERA even worse at 5.52. In August, Hughes bounced back from being miserable to just being okay with a 4.22 ERA. As I write this, Hughes is making his first start in September and, so far, it is a normal Hughes start of three innings, two runs.
He has won 16 games because of the amazing run support he has received from the Yankee offense, almost 7 runs a game (the highest in the majors) and because the bullpen has, with the acquisition of Kerry Wood and the emergence of Boone Logan (who was finally given a chance to perform by the ever-inept Joe Girardi), become one of the best in the league.
Hughes supporters can talk about his wins all they want. They can also continue to insist that 24 is somehow too young to judge what a pitcher is or will be. The truth is, there is nothing on Phil Hughes' resume that would suggest he will ever be anything other than, at best, a third starter in this league.
His stuff is pedestrian. His fastball is 92 and straight, with a delivery that doesn't involve any deception at all. His curve is nice but certainly not devastating. His changeup, the pitch that supposedly earned him a spot in the rotation, doesn't exist, and his cutter is usually just a flat fastball.
I am not suggesting the Yankees trade Hughes (although I don't believe he or Joba should be untouchable) but it seems clear now that the most coveted Yankee pitching prospect in years is no more than Jon Garland in waiting. Considering they had a chance to trade for Johan Santana if they gave up on Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Ian Kennedy, it would appear the Yanks sorely misread yet another prospect.
Part of my issue with him really has little to actually do with Hughes. He couldn't control how the Yankees promoted and hyped him, how they called him the "next Roger Clemens" (one assumes without the steroids), and how they refused to trade him for anyone. Listening to the breathless description of him as a pitcher, I was expecting to see a combination of Sandy Koufax and Jesus.
But, even though Hughes was lower on my favorite player totem pole, and even though I had serious arguements with my friends about The Franchise as a pitcher, I couldn't deny how Hughes started the season. April looked like the culmination of everything I had heard about Hughes. His fastball was exploding, his curve was 12-6, and he had great control. Unlike the other overhyped Yankee phenom, Joba Chamberlain, who was given his chance to start last year and failed, Hughes was efficient and effective every time out. My friends who insisted Hughes would find his feet crowed and I, as the Hughes detractor, admitted that I might have made a mistake. Maybe Hughes really was the next superstar pitcher in waiting.
Then May hit and things went back to normal.
In his first six starts of the season, Hughes was utterly brilliant, going 4-0 and producing a wonderful 1.38 ERA. Then, on May 17, he got bombed by the Red Sox and things have gone down hill from there. His June ERA was 5.17, his July ERA even worse at 5.52. In August, Hughes bounced back from being miserable to just being okay with a 4.22 ERA. As I write this, Hughes is making his first start in September and, so far, it is a normal Hughes start of three innings, two runs.
He has won 16 games because of the amazing run support he has received from the Yankee offense, almost 7 runs a game (the highest in the majors) and because the bullpen has, with the acquisition of Kerry Wood and the emergence of Boone Logan (who was finally given a chance to perform by the ever-inept Joe Girardi), become one of the best in the league.
Hughes supporters can talk about his wins all they want. They can also continue to insist that 24 is somehow too young to judge what a pitcher is or will be. The truth is, there is nothing on Phil Hughes' resume that would suggest he will ever be anything other than, at best, a third starter in this league.
His stuff is pedestrian. His fastball is 92 and straight, with a delivery that doesn't involve any deception at all. His curve is nice but certainly not devastating. His changeup, the pitch that supposedly earned him a spot in the rotation, doesn't exist, and his cutter is usually just a flat fastball.
I am not suggesting the Yankees trade Hughes (although I don't believe he or Joba should be untouchable) but it seems clear now that the most coveted Yankee pitching prospect in years is no more than Jon Garland in waiting. Considering they had a chance to trade for Johan Santana if they gave up on Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Ian Kennedy, it would appear the Yanks sorely misread yet another prospect.
Thursday, August 19
Looking ahead, for the heck of it
Trust me, I get it.
The Yankees are tied for first place in the AL East and for the best record in baseball.
If you had to rank the likely World Series winner at this point in the season, you'd be hard pressed to slide anyone ahead of the Bombers.
Long story short, there is a whole heck of a lot to be interested in this season, like:
Will Andy Pettitte come back healthy?
How are the Yankees going to handle Phil Hughes and his innings limit in the midst of a pennant race?
Will AJ Burnett and Javier Vazquez find some consistency or continue to struggle?
Will Derek Jeter end the season on an up note, salvaging some of what has been his worst season as a professional?
Will Joba Chamberlain, Dave Robertson, and Kerry Wood make for a sturdy bridge to Mariano Rivera?
Will Joe Girardi's tendency to over manage cost the Yankees in September of the playoffs?
There are 40 plus games on the schedule that will help answer all of those questions.
Now, however, is right smack dab in the middle of August. These are the dog days. Pitchers have dead arm. Hitters seem to be slumping. Guys are getting rest, even when they might not need it. Everyone seems a little dinged up. What better time than to take the MAJOR leap forward and start to look at next year's roster. Who will be back, who will be gone, and who will be coming in. We'll take it position by position, looking at the starters, what chance they would be back, and who might replace them if their Yankee days are numbered.
First Base – Mark Teixeira
Chance of returning: 100%
This is as certain as it gets with the Yankees. He has a huge contract, so even if you wanted to move him, you can't. But, trust me, you don't want to move him. Teixeira is having a down year by his standards and is still on pace for very good run-production numbers. He shed the first three months of the season, where he fluctuated between mediocre and God-aweful, and has been one of the Yankees best hitters through the summer. Add on the fact that he is a gold glover at first and Tex will be a Yankee for a long, long time.
Possible replacement: No one.
Second Base – Robinson Cano
Chance of returning: 100%
Again, like Teixeira, this is a no-brainer. Cano has cooled off a little since his torrid start, and talk of him winning an MVP or batting title has subsided, but he is still unquestionably the best second baseman in the American League and probably only Chase Utley (when healthy) is comparable through the entire majors. And, he still has room to improve. You don't normally get the type of middle-of-the-lineup production Cano
produces from your second baseman, and the Yankees won't let go of their superstar middle infielder for anything.
Possible replacement: No one.
Short Stop – Derek Jeter
Chance of returning: 100%
Yes, he is having the worst statistical year of his career. There is no reason to even run down the numbers. Everything, across the board, is down, except maybe his defense.
Yes, he turned 36 this year and many players see their careers come to a quick and abrupt end around this time of life. Baseball might be a tough too fast for the Hall of Famer at this stage of the game.
Yet, we all know Jeter will be back in a Yankee uniform next season, and there are three very good reasons why: First, Jeter is iconic. You can make the argument that he is the most popular Yankee since Mickey Mantle, maybe even Joe Dimaggio. He remains one of the most marketable athletes in the world and that, in and of itself, makes any large contract for Jeter more than economically for the Yankees. There isn't a person in the front office, from Cashman on down, that wants to be remembered for letting Derek Jeter finish his career in another uniform.
Second, while the Yankees are paying A-Rod millions for each home run milestone, the true chase will be next year when Jeter rapidly approaches 3,000 hits. Right now, he is 14 away from 2,900 for his career. Considering there are 40 games to go, you can at least assume Jeter to average around a hit a game. That would put him at 2,926, or 84 hits away from the magic number. While home runs have been stained by the steroid era, 3,000 hits remains a magic number and a guaranteed place holder in the Hall. Add in the fact that no Yankee has ever gotten 3,000 hits and it will make his run that much more interesting and special.
Third, and finally, Jeter deserves a mulligan. Even Ty Cobb had a really bad year during his career. Granted, Jeter's age, and the wear and tear on his body after so many games over so many years, makes it more likely this is a downward trend rather than a bump in the road, he deserves the chance to prove he can rise to his level one or two more times before he calls it quits. He has been a great Yankee for 15 years. He has earned that right.
Possible replacement: No one.
Third Base – Alex Rodriguez
Chance of returning: 100%
Like Jeter, there are warning signs associated with A-Rod. He is 35. He is a step slower. His power numbers are way off, even with his three-homer explosion the other night. After years of being a iron man on the field, he is becoming more and more banged up. Yet, A-Rod is still a feared power hitter who drives in runs and keeps the wheels of the Yankee offensive machine churning. He still gives the Yankees both power and speed out of their fourth-place hitter, and he can devastate a game like no one else.
Also, like Jeter, A-Rod has been too good for too long not to throw this year out as an “oh well, it happens” kinda season and expect a bounce-back next year.
And, who are we kidding, even if the Yankees were desparate to get rid of Rodriguez, his contract (what's that for, 100 years?) makes it an impossibility.
Possible replacement: No one.
Catcher – Jorge Posada
Chance of returning: 30%
Before you start stomping up and down, screaming about how stupid it is to assume that Jorge will not be coming back, understand that the 30% represented what I believe to be Posada's chances of playing as the Yankee everyday catcher next year. I know Jorge is coming back, but I believe that, at this point, he will be coming back as the DH.
Look, it's no secret that most of the pitchers prefer to see someone else behind the plate. His defensive skills, never Johnny Bench-esque to begin with, have become woefully inadequate, and not just in terms of throwing baserunners out. He has a hard time blocking balls in the dirt, has had an inordinate number of passed balls and wild pitches scoot by this season, and the position just bangs the heck out of him. He still has a really good bat, one that remains important to the Yankee offense, but playing behind the plate doesn't do he, or the team, any good going forward.
Possible replacement: Jesus Montero
I just can't see the Yankees trading Montero this offseason, or keeping him down in the minors for another season. Yes, he started off very slowly, but he has been absolutely on fire the last month and a half of the season, devastating AAA pitching. This kid seems to be the real deal, a legit offensive superstar. As far as his catching skills, I can't comment on that, nor can most people because they haven't watched him day-to-day. He supposedly has a cannon for an arm and can call a good game. A lot of the criticisms have been about his size, but Joe Mauer is a big guy, as is Matt Wiener, and both of them seem to be turning out just fine. Montero could be just what the doctor ordered for the team offensively while continueing to progress under the tutelage of a veteran catcher at the major league level.
DH – Lance Berkman
Chance of returning: 10%
I don't see the Big Puma coming back to the Yankees after this season. He hasn't done very well since coming over but I have to believe someone out there will believe in Berkman and his home run potential enough to offer more than a Nick Johnson-esque one year, $5 option. Plus, I think the Yankees will be looking to slide someone else in there come next year.
Possible replacement: Jorge Posada
Right Field – Nick Swisher
Chance of returning: 90%
Swisher is just shy of 30, is cheap, has a few more years left on his contract, plays a good right field, and is having his best offensive year overall. So, why would the Yankees ever think about getting rid of him?
The truth is, I can't imagine Swishalicious going anywhere. He has become a fan favorite and, quite frankly, when you look at his numbers compared with other players at that position, he is more than holding his own.
But, Swisher is also not Teixeira or Cano (superstar caliber), nor is he Jeter or A-Rod (iconic legends). So, because of that, Swisher is only a 90% return kinda guy because, while he is likely to stay put, he isn't untouchable and the Yankees have proven over the years that, if you aren't untouchable, you are very much replaceable.
Possible replacement: No one jumps to mind, but, if the Yankees were to make a move it would have to be for a guy that trumps Swisher in all categories. Since no one really appears on the horizon in terms of free agency that fits such a description, you would have to think it would only be for an upgrade.
Center Field - Curtis Granderson
Chance of returning: 80%
I thought the Granderson trade was the steal of the offseason, but the Grandy Man has had a.......well......it's been a bad year. His average against lefties could only go up from the .174 he was hitting last year, but his just above .200 mark isn't exactly impressing the stat heads. Also, a lot of people thought, after Granderson smacked 30 homers playing half his games in the cavernous Comerica Park in Detroit, that 40 was a distinct possibility once he saw that short right porch in the Bronx. That, like so much else, hasn't materalized.
Yet, Granderson is a terrific center fielder, has provided some of the only speed on the team, and, since reworking his mechanics with Kevin Long, has been on a tear.
Granderson's year puts him on the "maybe" list of guys who could be moved in the right deal. He hasn't lived up to the potential, but who else are the Yankees going to get? Plus, with his new swing and new confidence, Granderson is poised to finish the year strong and one would have to feel confident he would bounce back next year with a much more Granderson-esque season.
Possible replacement: Brett Gardner
I could see this happening if the Yankees dealt Granderson away and brought in another left fielder. That would put Gardner back at his natural position in center. However, I don't buy this as happening. I think Granderson gets another shot at this. He has too much talent, too much potential, and I don't think you mix and match yet again, even off of a disappointing year.
Left Field – Brett Gardner
Chance of returning: 50%
Gardner is perhaps the hardest regular Yankee on which to get a read. Let's assume for a second that Granderson is back, and that Gardner does not simply make a move in positions. It comes down to whether the Yankees want to go into next season, and perhaps beyond, with His Grittiness in the outfield.
Reasons why Gardner will be back: he has had a very nice year with the bat, has gotten a lot of big hits for the team, has played very good defense in the outfield, and, with the aging legs of both Jeter and A-Rod, Gardner and Granderson real provide the only speed on the team, with Gardner being the only exceptionally fast player on the squad.
Reasons why Gardner will be gone: his good year has also ensured that he would be a valuable trade chip if the Yankees needed another player (especially a pitcher) and couldn't do it via free agency, his numbers have dropped off somewhat at the end of the year which could mean a late-season swoon might be in the making (not the type of last impression you want to make on your team), and he is playing the position of a guy a lot of people, including the Yankees, might covet in the off season (we'll talk about him in a minute).
If this were my team, Gardner would be back, but he fits the bill of the type of player always seemingly available in the Yankee system: good enough to warrant interest from other teams, not good enough to be a star so always on the chopping block.
Gun to my head, I say he is back.
Possible replacement: Carl Crawford
Crawford, finishing up his final year with the Tampa Bay Rays, will be a free agent. He has said as much and the team has all but admitted they don't plan to retain him (don't get me started on what a waste of a team it has become to allow a franchise to remain in Tampa). He is a better player than Gardner, pure and simple. He can steal the same amount of bases, hit for more power, hit for a higher average, and play just as good a left field. He also is still in his prime (29 years old) and buying in on guys who are proven but just entering their peak years (Teixeira, Swisher, CC Sabathia) has proven to work out well for the Yanks the last few years.
So, why would the Yanks pass?
A couple of reasons; first, the Yankees don't need a huge infusion of power into the lineup. They get A+ power numbers from first, second, third, and have the potential to get more out of center and short, if both guys have bounce-back years. Swisher in right provides plenty, himself, and Posada at DH is still capable of 20 or more homers, as might be youngster Montero, if given a chance. If you take the power away, Gardner and Crawford are much closer players. Second, while Crawford is one of the best players around right now, he plays a very aggressive, physical style, and has been doing so at the major league level for a while. His speed, which makes an exceptional player, might not last for much longer. Third, and perhaps most importantly, I don't believe the Yankees are going to splurge on two high-priced free agents and I honestly believe their focus will be on pitching. They are going to have a bigger need for it come next season. While Crawford, any way you shake it, would be an upgrade over Gardner, it would count more as a want rather than a need.
Because of that, I believe the Yankees pass on Crawford (who might end up in Boston) and go after another lefty ace in free agency, whose name may rhymn with knee.
Starting pitchers – CC Sabathia
Chance of returning: 100%
He is the ace of the staff and one of the best in the business. Rather than being scared off by the short Yankee Stadium porch in right field, he has made his home ballpark a true advantage, becoming almost unbeatable in the Bronx. He is a workhorse, has what seems to be a rubber arm, and gets better the bigger the moment. And, as Johan Santana struggles a bit with the Mets over in Queens, it looks like Brian Cashman may have made the right choice in passing on a trade for that lefty pitcher and, instead, targeting the big man.
Possible replacement: No one
Phil Hughes
Chance of returning: 100%
Of the three young starters the Yankees touted a few years ago (Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy) Hughes has turned out to be the most productive. While it still remains to be seen if Hughes will be the ace-quality starter he was in the early part of 2010, or the middle-of-the-rotation guy he has appeared to be for much of the rest of the season, his age, his price tag, his overall health, and his maturation in the system already, makes him a lock to be back next year.
Possible replacement: No one.
AJ Burnett
Chance of returning: 95%
This is probably 100%, but the Yankees might get so frustrated with Burnett and his on-again, off-again outing that they might be willing to eat most of his contract to get him off the roster. Yet, even though the Yankees are the only team in baseball capable of doing something like that, it is highly, highly unlikely. Burnett, after this season, has three more years left on what now seems like a odious $85 million contract. Who would be dumb enough to take that on, even if the Yankees were picking up most of the bill? The answer is no one.
Plus, on the positive side, Burnett remains one of the most talented throwers in the game and is perfectly capable of pitching a gem, or getting on a roll towards the end of the year and being one of the team's best performers. Because of that, it is highly unlikely the Yankees would be willing to part company.
Possible replacement: Ivan Nova
I personally believe the Yankees will look to add two new pitchers this offseason already (which I'll explain in a moment) so, if they traded Burnett, I think they would keep it cheap and promote from within. Nova is having an excellent year at AAA and would be in line to get a chance at the number 5 spot in the rotation.
Andy Pettitte
Chance of returning: 30%
If you had asked me this question eight weeks ago, I would have told you this percentage would be at about 80%. However, Pettitte, who has flirted with retirement for what seems like a decade straight now, always said he would pitch as long as he was healthy. Well, he was healthy all last year and through the All Star break this year. Now, however, he seems to be dealing with a groin injury that won't go away and the veteran lefty has shown real frustration when speaking about his rehab. Even if Pettitte comes back and pitches well at the end of the season, his current injury is probably enough to keep him from trying it again next year. At his age, the body might be telling him to shut it down.
Possible replacement: Ted Lilly, Joba Chamberlain
The Yankees were rumored to be interested in their former left handed pitcher at the trade deadline but backed away. As a free agent, and a little older, Lilly could be a nice stop-gap for either a youngster in the minors or another free agent pitcher down the road. He's a left hander, has pitched in New York and the ÅL East in the past, and would probably be amenable to coming back to where it all started for him. As far as Chamberlain, it is a possibility only in a pinch, in my opinion, but it is an option. The Yankees spent a lot of time “building” his arm up last year and he has remained injury free this season, albeit in the pen. I think they would look to keep him in his current role, but, if they needed to, he could be swung back into the rotation.
Javier Vazquez
Chance of returning: 3%
I don't have a lot of faith that Javy is coming back to the Yanks. His return has been okay but not triumphant. He is still shaky in the big game and he isn't exactly a fan favorite. Plus, Javy is going to be 35 and his stuff, including his velocity, has seemed to be down this year from even last year. Considering his track record would probably be enough to command a larger contract, both in terms of money and years, than the Yankees are willing to give up, it's hard to imagine the Vazquez experiment lasting more than a season.
Possible replacement: Cliff Lee
Is there a worse secret in baseball than that Cliff Lee wants to be a Yankee and the Yankees want Cliff Lee?The Bombers had a deal in place this trade deadline to bring Lee to the Bronx in exchange for Jesus Montero, so you know they are serious. Sabathia, who is one of Lee's best friends, has also not been very couy when asked whether Lee will want to sign with the Yankees come this winter. I think the Yankes, with Pettitte and Vazquez coming off the books, will have one big contract splash in them, and Lee, still only 31 and one of the best in the game, will be wearing pinstripes next season.
Closer – Mariano Rivera
Chance of returning: 100%
Unless Rivera wants to walk away after this year, he is coming back.
Forget the contract. Like Jeter, there is no way anyone is letting Rivera walk in the twilight of his career to another team. He will be back and, unless shown otherwise, will be just as good as always.
Possible replacement: No one.
Couple of notes here: I didn't tackle the bench players at all because they are fairly expendable. I doubt Austin Kearns comes back, wouldn't be surprised if Marcus Thames has a second go-around, and think that Pena would probably be back as your jack of all trades in the infield. Francisco Cervelli is an interesting case as his situation will be determined by how committed the Yankees are to Posada as their everyday DH, and how much rope they give a kid like Montero. As far as the pen, the only really interesting guys are Joba and Kerry Wood. I can't see the Yanks giving up on Robertson, although, if he were requested in a deal the Yankees desperately wanted, I doubt it would be a breaker, and I think Boone Logan might have secured a chance to be that lefty reliever the Yankees like to have. With Wood and Joba, I think Wood is gone, only because someone will offer him a closer roll, and I think Joba stays, although he will be offered in the right deal. In the end, Joba's talent is still enough to keep the Yanks coming back for more.
The Yankees are tied for first place in the AL East and for the best record in baseball.
If you had to rank the likely World Series winner at this point in the season, you'd be hard pressed to slide anyone ahead of the Bombers.
Long story short, there is a whole heck of a lot to be interested in this season, like:
Will Andy Pettitte come back healthy?
How are the Yankees going to handle Phil Hughes and his innings limit in the midst of a pennant race?
Will AJ Burnett and Javier Vazquez find some consistency or continue to struggle?
Will Derek Jeter end the season on an up note, salvaging some of what has been his worst season as a professional?
Will Joba Chamberlain, Dave Robertson, and Kerry Wood make for a sturdy bridge to Mariano Rivera?
Will Joe Girardi's tendency to over manage cost the Yankees in September of the playoffs?
There are 40 plus games on the schedule that will help answer all of those questions.
Now, however, is right smack dab in the middle of August. These are the dog days. Pitchers have dead arm. Hitters seem to be slumping. Guys are getting rest, even when they might not need it. Everyone seems a little dinged up. What better time than to take the MAJOR leap forward and start to look at next year's roster. Who will be back, who will be gone, and who will be coming in. We'll take it position by position, looking at the starters, what chance they would be back, and who might replace them if their Yankee days are numbered.
First Base – Mark Teixeira
Chance of returning: 100%
This is as certain as it gets with the Yankees. He has a huge contract, so even if you wanted to move him, you can't. But, trust me, you don't want to move him. Teixeira is having a down year by his standards and is still on pace for very good run-production numbers. He shed the first three months of the season, where he fluctuated between mediocre and God-aweful, and has been one of the Yankees best hitters through the summer. Add on the fact that he is a gold glover at first and Tex will be a Yankee for a long, long time.
Possible replacement: No one.
Second Base – Robinson Cano
Chance of returning: 100%
Again, like Teixeira, this is a no-brainer. Cano has cooled off a little since his torrid start, and talk of him winning an MVP or batting title has subsided, but he is still unquestionably the best second baseman in the American League and probably only Chase Utley (when healthy) is comparable through the entire majors. And, he still has room to improve. You don't normally get the type of middle-of-the-lineup production Cano
produces from your second baseman, and the Yankees won't let go of their superstar middle infielder for anything.
Possible replacement: No one.
Short Stop – Derek Jeter
Chance of returning: 100%
Yes, he is having the worst statistical year of his career. There is no reason to even run down the numbers. Everything, across the board, is down, except maybe his defense.
Yes, he turned 36 this year and many players see their careers come to a quick and abrupt end around this time of life. Baseball might be a tough too fast for the Hall of Famer at this stage of the game.
Yet, we all know Jeter will be back in a Yankee uniform next season, and there are three very good reasons why: First, Jeter is iconic. You can make the argument that he is the most popular Yankee since Mickey Mantle, maybe even Joe Dimaggio. He remains one of the most marketable athletes in the world and that, in and of itself, makes any large contract for Jeter more than economically for the Yankees. There isn't a person in the front office, from Cashman on down, that wants to be remembered for letting Derek Jeter finish his career in another uniform.
Second, while the Yankees are paying A-Rod millions for each home run milestone, the true chase will be next year when Jeter rapidly approaches 3,000 hits. Right now, he is 14 away from 2,900 for his career. Considering there are 40 games to go, you can at least assume Jeter to average around a hit a game. That would put him at 2,926, or 84 hits away from the magic number. While home runs have been stained by the steroid era, 3,000 hits remains a magic number and a guaranteed place holder in the Hall. Add in the fact that no Yankee has ever gotten 3,000 hits and it will make his run that much more interesting and special.
Third, and finally, Jeter deserves a mulligan. Even Ty Cobb had a really bad year during his career. Granted, Jeter's age, and the wear and tear on his body after so many games over so many years, makes it more likely this is a downward trend rather than a bump in the road, he deserves the chance to prove he can rise to his level one or two more times before he calls it quits. He has been a great Yankee for 15 years. He has earned that right.
Possible replacement: No one.
Third Base – Alex Rodriguez
Chance of returning: 100%
Like Jeter, there are warning signs associated with A-Rod. He is 35. He is a step slower. His power numbers are way off, even with his three-homer explosion the other night. After years of being a iron man on the field, he is becoming more and more banged up. Yet, A-Rod is still a feared power hitter who drives in runs and keeps the wheels of the Yankee offensive machine churning. He still gives the Yankees both power and speed out of their fourth-place hitter, and he can devastate a game like no one else.
Also, like Jeter, A-Rod has been too good for too long not to throw this year out as an “oh well, it happens” kinda season and expect a bounce-back next year.
And, who are we kidding, even if the Yankees were desparate to get rid of Rodriguez, his contract (what's that for, 100 years?) makes it an impossibility.
Possible replacement: No one.
Catcher – Jorge Posada
Chance of returning: 30%
Before you start stomping up and down, screaming about how stupid it is to assume that Jorge will not be coming back, understand that the 30% represented what I believe to be Posada's chances of playing as the Yankee everyday catcher next year. I know Jorge is coming back, but I believe that, at this point, he will be coming back as the DH.
Look, it's no secret that most of the pitchers prefer to see someone else behind the plate. His defensive skills, never Johnny Bench-esque to begin with, have become woefully inadequate, and not just in terms of throwing baserunners out. He has a hard time blocking balls in the dirt, has had an inordinate number of passed balls and wild pitches scoot by this season, and the position just bangs the heck out of him. He still has a really good bat, one that remains important to the Yankee offense, but playing behind the plate doesn't do he, or the team, any good going forward.
Possible replacement: Jesus Montero
I just can't see the Yankees trading Montero this offseason, or keeping him down in the minors for another season. Yes, he started off very slowly, but he has been absolutely on fire the last month and a half of the season, devastating AAA pitching. This kid seems to be the real deal, a legit offensive superstar. As far as his catching skills, I can't comment on that, nor can most people because they haven't watched him day-to-day. He supposedly has a cannon for an arm and can call a good game. A lot of the criticisms have been about his size, but Joe Mauer is a big guy, as is Matt Wiener, and both of them seem to be turning out just fine. Montero could be just what the doctor ordered for the team offensively while continueing to progress under the tutelage of a veteran catcher at the major league level.
DH – Lance Berkman
Chance of returning: 10%
I don't see the Big Puma coming back to the Yankees after this season. He hasn't done very well since coming over but I have to believe someone out there will believe in Berkman and his home run potential enough to offer more than a Nick Johnson-esque one year, $5 option. Plus, I think the Yankees will be looking to slide someone else in there come next year.
Possible replacement: Jorge Posada
Right Field – Nick Swisher
Chance of returning: 90%
Swisher is just shy of 30, is cheap, has a few more years left on his contract, plays a good right field, and is having his best offensive year overall. So, why would the Yankees ever think about getting rid of him?
The truth is, I can't imagine Swishalicious going anywhere. He has become a fan favorite and, quite frankly, when you look at his numbers compared with other players at that position, he is more than holding his own.
But, Swisher is also not Teixeira or Cano (superstar caliber), nor is he Jeter or A-Rod (iconic legends). So, because of that, Swisher is only a 90% return kinda guy because, while he is likely to stay put, he isn't untouchable and the Yankees have proven over the years that, if you aren't untouchable, you are very much replaceable.
Possible replacement: No one jumps to mind, but, if the Yankees were to make a move it would have to be for a guy that trumps Swisher in all categories. Since no one really appears on the horizon in terms of free agency that fits such a description, you would have to think it would only be for an upgrade.
Center Field - Curtis Granderson
Chance of returning: 80%
I thought the Granderson trade was the steal of the offseason, but the Grandy Man has had a.......well......it's been a bad year. His average against lefties could only go up from the .174 he was hitting last year, but his just above .200 mark isn't exactly impressing the stat heads. Also, a lot of people thought, after Granderson smacked 30 homers playing half his games in the cavernous Comerica Park in Detroit, that 40 was a distinct possibility once he saw that short right porch in the Bronx. That, like so much else, hasn't materalized.
Yet, Granderson is a terrific center fielder, has provided some of the only speed on the team, and, since reworking his mechanics with Kevin Long, has been on a tear.
Granderson's year puts him on the "maybe" list of guys who could be moved in the right deal. He hasn't lived up to the potential, but who else are the Yankees going to get? Plus, with his new swing and new confidence, Granderson is poised to finish the year strong and one would have to feel confident he would bounce back next year with a much more Granderson-esque season.
Possible replacement: Brett Gardner
I could see this happening if the Yankees dealt Granderson away and brought in another left fielder. That would put Gardner back at his natural position in center. However, I don't buy this as happening. I think Granderson gets another shot at this. He has too much talent, too much potential, and I don't think you mix and match yet again, even off of a disappointing year.
Left Field – Brett Gardner
Chance of returning: 50%
Gardner is perhaps the hardest regular Yankee on which to get a read. Let's assume for a second that Granderson is back, and that Gardner does not simply make a move in positions. It comes down to whether the Yankees want to go into next season, and perhaps beyond, with His Grittiness in the outfield.
Reasons why Gardner will be back: he has had a very nice year with the bat, has gotten a lot of big hits for the team, has played very good defense in the outfield, and, with the aging legs of both Jeter and A-Rod, Gardner and Granderson real provide the only speed on the team, with Gardner being the only exceptionally fast player on the squad.
Reasons why Gardner will be gone: his good year has also ensured that he would be a valuable trade chip if the Yankees needed another player (especially a pitcher) and couldn't do it via free agency, his numbers have dropped off somewhat at the end of the year which could mean a late-season swoon might be in the making (not the type of last impression you want to make on your team), and he is playing the position of a guy a lot of people, including the Yankees, might covet in the off season (we'll talk about him in a minute).
If this were my team, Gardner would be back, but he fits the bill of the type of player always seemingly available in the Yankee system: good enough to warrant interest from other teams, not good enough to be a star so always on the chopping block.
Gun to my head, I say he is back.
Possible replacement: Carl Crawford
Crawford, finishing up his final year with the Tampa Bay Rays, will be a free agent. He has said as much and the team has all but admitted they don't plan to retain him (don't get me started on what a waste of a team it has become to allow a franchise to remain in Tampa). He is a better player than Gardner, pure and simple. He can steal the same amount of bases, hit for more power, hit for a higher average, and play just as good a left field. He also is still in his prime (29 years old) and buying in on guys who are proven but just entering their peak years (Teixeira, Swisher, CC Sabathia) has proven to work out well for the Yanks the last few years.
So, why would the Yanks pass?
A couple of reasons; first, the Yankees don't need a huge infusion of power into the lineup. They get A+ power numbers from first, second, third, and have the potential to get more out of center and short, if both guys have bounce-back years. Swisher in right provides plenty, himself, and Posada at DH is still capable of 20 or more homers, as might be youngster Montero, if given a chance. If you take the power away, Gardner and Crawford are much closer players. Second, while Crawford is one of the best players around right now, he plays a very aggressive, physical style, and has been doing so at the major league level for a while. His speed, which makes an exceptional player, might not last for much longer. Third, and perhaps most importantly, I don't believe the Yankees are going to splurge on two high-priced free agents and I honestly believe their focus will be on pitching. They are going to have a bigger need for it come next season. While Crawford, any way you shake it, would be an upgrade over Gardner, it would count more as a want rather than a need.
Because of that, I believe the Yankees pass on Crawford (who might end up in Boston) and go after another lefty ace in free agency, whose name may rhymn with knee.
Starting pitchers – CC Sabathia
Chance of returning: 100%
He is the ace of the staff and one of the best in the business. Rather than being scared off by the short Yankee Stadium porch in right field, he has made his home ballpark a true advantage, becoming almost unbeatable in the Bronx. He is a workhorse, has what seems to be a rubber arm, and gets better the bigger the moment. And, as Johan Santana struggles a bit with the Mets over in Queens, it looks like Brian Cashman may have made the right choice in passing on a trade for that lefty pitcher and, instead, targeting the big man.
Possible replacement: No one
Phil Hughes
Chance of returning: 100%
Of the three young starters the Yankees touted a few years ago (Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy) Hughes has turned out to be the most productive. While it still remains to be seen if Hughes will be the ace-quality starter he was in the early part of 2010, or the middle-of-the-rotation guy he has appeared to be for much of the rest of the season, his age, his price tag, his overall health, and his maturation in the system already, makes him a lock to be back next year.
Possible replacement: No one.
AJ Burnett
Chance of returning: 95%
This is probably 100%, but the Yankees might get so frustrated with Burnett and his on-again, off-again outing that they might be willing to eat most of his contract to get him off the roster. Yet, even though the Yankees are the only team in baseball capable of doing something like that, it is highly, highly unlikely. Burnett, after this season, has three more years left on what now seems like a odious $85 million contract. Who would be dumb enough to take that on, even if the Yankees were picking up most of the bill? The answer is no one.
Plus, on the positive side, Burnett remains one of the most talented throwers in the game and is perfectly capable of pitching a gem, or getting on a roll towards the end of the year and being one of the team's best performers. Because of that, it is highly unlikely the Yankees would be willing to part company.
Possible replacement: Ivan Nova
I personally believe the Yankees will look to add two new pitchers this offseason already (which I'll explain in a moment) so, if they traded Burnett, I think they would keep it cheap and promote from within. Nova is having an excellent year at AAA and would be in line to get a chance at the number 5 spot in the rotation.
Andy Pettitte
Chance of returning: 30%
If you had asked me this question eight weeks ago, I would have told you this percentage would be at about 80%. However, Pettitte, who has flirted with retirement for what seems like a decade straight now, always said he would pitch as long as he was healthy. Well, he was healthy all last year and through the All Star break this year. Now, however, he seems to be dealing with a groin injury that won't go away and the veteran lefty has shown real frustration when speaking about his rehab. Even if Pettitte comes back and pitches well at the end of the season, his current injury is probably enough to keep him from trying it again next year. At his age, the body might be telling him to shut it down.
Possible replacement: Ted Lilly, Joba Chamberlain
The Yankees were rumored to be interested in their former left handed pitcher at the trade deadline but backed away. As a free agent, and a little older, Lilly could be a nice stop-gap for either a youngster in the minors or another free agent pitcher down the road. He's a left hander, has pitched in New York and the ÅL East in the past, and would probably be amenable to coming back to where it all started for him. As far as Chamberlain, it is a possibility only in a pinch, in my opinion, but it is an option. The Yankees spent a lot of time “building” his arm up last year and he has remained injury free this season, albeit in the pen. I think they would look to keep him in his current role, but, if they needed to, he could be swung back into the rotation.
Javier Vazquez
Chance of returning: 3%
I don't have a lot of faith that Javy is coming back to the Yanks. His return has been okay but not triumphant. He is still shaky in the big game and he isn't exactly a fan favorite. Plus, Javy is going to be 35 and his stuff, including his velocity, has seemed to be down this year from even last year. Considering his track record would probably be enough to command a larger contract, both in terms of money and years, than the Yankees are willing to give up, it's hard to imagine the Vazquez experiment lasting more than a season.
Possible replacement: Cliff Lee
Is there a worse secret in baseball than that Cliff Lee wants to be a Yankee and the Yankees want Cliff Lee?The Bombers had a deal in place this trade deadline to bring Lee to the Bronx in exchange for Jesus Montero, so you know they are serious. Sabathia, who is one of Lee's best friends, has also not been very couy when asked whether Lee will want to sign with the Yankees come this winter. I think the Yankes, with Pettitte and Vazquez coming off the books, will have one big contract splash in them, and Lee, still only 31 and one of the best in the game, will be wearing pinstripes next season.
Closer – Mariano Rivera
Chance of returning: 100%
Unless Rivera wants to walk away after this year, he is coming back.
Forget the contract. Like Jeter, there is no way anyone is letting Rivera walk in the twilight of his career to another team. He will be back and, unless shown otherwise, will be just as good as always.
Possible replacement: No one.
Couple of notes here: I didn't tackle the bench players at all because they are fairly expendable. I doubt Austin Kearns comes back, wouldn't be surprised if Marcus Thames has a second go-around, and think that Pena would probably be back as your jack of all trades in the infield. Francisco Cervelli is an interesting case as his situation will be determined by how committed the Yankees are to Posada as their everyday DH, and how much rope they give a kid like Montero. As far as the pen, the only really interesting guys are Joba and Kerry Wood. I can't see the Yanks giving up on Robertson, although, if he were requested in a deal the Yankees desperately wanted, I doubt it would be a breaker, and I think Boone Logan might have secured a chance to be that lefty reliever the Yankees like to have. With Wood and Joba, I think Wood is gone, only because someone will offer him a closer roll, and I think Joba stays, although he will be offered in the right deal. In the end, Joba's talent is still enough to keep the Yanks coming back for more.
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