There is something brewing in the NL East.
For years, the team that dominated this league was the Atlanta Braves. Each year, you could set an egg timer to the amount of games it would take for them to distance themselves from the rest of the pack. They OWNED the Mets, routinely held off game Florida Marlins teams for the division title, and put an upstart Phillies' team in their place a few times.
But rebuilding (to a certain extent) has caught up to the Braves, meaning that, for the foreseeable future they are the third team in this division, and a new, chippier, more emotional rivalry is brewing between those Amazin Mets and the Phillies. You can just hear Jimmy Rollins talking boasting about something right now, can't you?
Washington Nationals: They have a new ball park and, by all accounts, it looks gorgeous. Situated right on the shores of the Potomac, the stadium gets the Nats out of a football stadium and into a stadium made for baseball. It should open up new revenue streams, as will their new television contract deal. People LOVE going to new stadiums, and since Washington D.C. is also one of the more popular tourist attractions, the stadium should see a packed house, at least for a while.
But what kind of team will people be watching? The Nationals, under GM Jim Bowden, are one of the more confusing teams in the league. First, Bowden completely overplayed his hand two years ago when he had the blue chip of all blue chips, Alfonso Soriano. Bowden was determined to get a king's ransom and, instead, ended up with nothing at all. Where is the young talent? Ryan Zimmerman looks to be the only true young, exciting played on the roster. Lastings Milledge? Possibly. His attitude may cloud judgement as to what kind of player he can be, but that attitude may actually effect what kind of levels he does eventually reach. He could join Zimmerman as the second "stud" youngster, or his flambouyant personality and arrogant belief in himself could derail him in D.C. as well. After that, the pickings are slim. Instead of trying to go young and build for the future, Bowden has put together a team of pretty much has-beens, many of whome weren't much to write home about even when they were in their prime.
Paul LoDuca's mouth has always been bigger than his bat, something the Mets concluded last year when they opted to trade for a catcher rather than resign LoDuca. Add on his penchant for injecting himself with HGH and that signing looks to be another Bowden special. Dmitri Young, Ronnie Belliard, Christian Guzman, and Wily Mo Pena make up the bulk of the lineup, with a capable Austin Kearns thrown in, backed up by the equally unimpressive bench of Nick Johnson, Aaron Boone and Elijah Dukes. This is a team building for the future?
The pitching is equally thin, with John Paterson the only legit pitcher in a bunch that includes the likes of Jason Bergman, Shawn Hill, and Matt Chico. With starting pitching like that, who, exactly, cares that Bowden decided to hang on to quality closer Chad Cordero, who should get about as many chances to close a game as Britney Spears will at Mother of the Year honors.
What is truly sad is the fact that the Nationals took over a Montreal Expos franchise that routinely had one of the best farm systems in baseball, and under Bowden, a GM cut from the Isiah Thomas cloth, that has been completely dismantled from the inside out. This is a team going now where, but they'll be doing it in new digs this year. Word to the Nationals ownership: you upgraded the building, now upgrade the front office. Get some smart, fresh faces in there and give your fans something to root for in the future.
Florida Marlins: Why do I like the Marlins more than the Nationals? Because I like Scott Olsen and Anibal Sanchez more than any starter on the Nationals. Because Hanley Ramirez is one of the best short stops in the game today and an MVP caliber player. Because Dan Uggla has the chance to be Chase Utley. Because Josh Wilingham can be the real deal. Because the Marlins always seem to play with an intensity and a passion that isn't reflected in the standings. And because the ball seems to be moving forward on their new stadium deal (bouyed by the Rays new deal just announced weeks ago) and that could infuse the team with a sense of hope for the future.
Now, don't get me wrong, the Marlins aren't poised for a 2006 caliber season. They aren't shocking anyone. They aren't contending. They have lost WAYYYY too much for that. We know about Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera going to Tigers, but equally devastating has been the loss of Josh Johnson, who will most likely spend all of '08 recovering from Tommy John surgery. That leaves a thin starting rotation behind Olsen and Sanchez, and an even more unproven bullpen backing them up, with Kevin Gregg slotted to be the closer.
When Johnson is fully recovered, the Marlins finally have a new home, and the team can begin to sign some of their top talent rather than treat their franchise like a rotatine door for players, then the Marlins can make the NL East a three team race again, but right now they will spend 2008 battling the Nationals for that fourth place finish.
Atlanta Braves: You don't make your bones in journalism by betting against certain teams, and one of those teams is the Atlanta Braves. This team will be solid, there is no question about that. They have some young players and some proven vets that still remember what it was like to dominate the division. The big three of Mark Texierera, Brian McCann and Chipper Jones will keep a young, talented lineup moving forward as long as Kelly Johnson continues to show he can progress from his very nice rookie season, and Jeff Francoeur continues to defy every stat geek in America in put up solid run production numbers despite his terrible OBP (want to see a Bill James, stat head follower's head explode? Tell them you think Francoeur is a top notch player. They'll beat you with their calculator and pocket protector).
The lineup should be fine, but the interesting thing will be the rotation. If this were 1997, this rotation would be one for the ages. John Smoltz will be followed up by Tim Hudson, who had a terrific bounce back year last year, and old friend Tom Glavine who, after helping the Mets finish off the greatest single collapse in the history of baseball, finally arrived home in Atlanta, where he always wanted to be. How much does Glavine have left? Towards the end, with the Mets, it didn't appear much, however a return home could revitalize him. How about Smoltz, how many more years can he continue to produce at an ace-caliber level? Then, at the back of the rotation, sits one Mike Hampton. Yes, that Mike Hampton. Does HE have ANYTHING left? Again, if this were 1997 the rotation would be historic. But right now, it simply looks old. Hampton has been done for years, Glavine is, at best, on his last leg, and Smoltz has already spit in the eye of father time a couple of instances already. Hudson seems to be a solid bet to stay solid, but will his geriatric compadres follow suit?
The other question, in my mind, will be whether Atlanta plans on signing Texieria to an exstention, which promises to be expensive, and, if not, whether they would consider trading him before the July 31 deadline.
If someone finds the fountain of youth in the next two months, the Braves might bring home another division title, but chances are the Braves are just too long in the tooth in the rotation to compete at the top level. (BTW, the Braves should sign Texieira to an extension. I understand that it will be expensive, but the truth is the Braves need a stabalizing force in that lineup and Texieira can be that for years to come, especially when Chipper goes the way of the dodo.)
New York Mets: Oh, my friends from Queens aint gonna be happy about this, but there are two main reasons why I am picking the Mets to come in second in the division. One, I am just not convinced this lineup can produce at a top level and, two, I don't believe that this rotation, behind Santana, will be as good as people think. I also believe that you have to beat the champ in order to be the champ, and the Phillies are the champs of the East.
Okay, we all know who the Mets traded for this offseason. I don't believe I have commented on this much, but the trade for Mr. Santana is one of the all time one sided transactions I have ever, ever seen. Not only did the Mets get Santana, but they didn't give up one player that was invaluable in their organization, and even got the opportunity to keep their two most prized minor leaguers in Mike Pelfrey and Francisco Martinez. But who comes in after Santana in the rotation?
Pedro Martinez is healthy and ready for the season, but when is the last time Martinez a.) showed he could be a consistently dominate pitcher and b.) showed he could stay somewhat healthy throughout a year? The answer is YEARS! So, suddenly, this year, Pedro is gonna start 30 games? And how much does Pedro have in that skinny little arm of his? He is a year older, yah know. Can he really be a number 2 in this league? After that, the Mets have Oliver Perez and John Maine, both of whom are equally average, with Perez always a candidate to implode and resemble the pitcher the Pirates were ready to FedEx to any team willing to cover the shipping costs two years ago. And how about El Duque? What is the over-under on El Duque's actual age? I would say it has to be 46, right? Heck, he might be Julio Franco's older brother for all we know. El Duques hasn't been injury free his entire career and has been exceptionally brittle the last few years. At this point, there is no guarantee that El Duque will even finish the first half of the season.
You know what you're gonna get from Johan, and John Maine has been solid, but there is a lot riding on the spaghetti arm of Pedro and, if he proves as unreliable and injury prone this year as he has been the last two years, I'm not sure the Mets have enough, especially with the always shaky Billy Wagner closing down games.
And how about this lineup?
Well, even though Jose Reyes had a horrible end to the year, both in production and concentration, he is still one of the most dynamic players in the game, and should have a huge year, as should David Wright, who has become one of the best third basemen in the league. Add in Carlos Beltran and the Mets have three potentially spectacular players. But after that, the Mets have a lot of question marks. Can any really expect Moises Alou to play close to 100 games this year? Is Ryan Church an every day player in this league and someone good enough to hold down the right field spot all year long? Can Brian Schneider give you anything at catcher? And, the million dollar question, was last year simply a down year for one Carlos Delgado or a sign of things to come?
As much as Pedro is the key to the rotation, Delgado is the key to the lineup. If he returns to 2006 form, the Mets could be a run-away train. If he continues to decline, it could leave Reyes, Wright, and Beltran all alone on an island.
Philadelphia Phillies: Jimmy Rollins said it, now I believe it. Last year, Rollins said the Phillies were the team to beat, and while it took until the last game of the season for that to ring true, Rollins' confidence was proven legit. Now, Rollins says the Phillies will win 100 games. Sign me up Jimmy, I'm with yah baby.
Now, I don't think they Phillies are gonna win 100 games, but I think they are gonna win one more game than the Mets, and that might be pretty darn close to the century mark. Why are the Phillies the team to beat in 2008?
The lineup is stacked. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, a rejuvinated Pat Burrel, the speedy Shane Victorino and newly acquired Pedro Feliz, who was one of San Francisco's best hitters last year, gives the Phillies more weapons and less question marks in the everyday lineup than the Mets. In fact, the Phillies have three guys - Howard, Utley, and Rollins - who could all challenge for an MVP.
But the biggest difference between this team and last year's team may very well be a guy in the bullpen many people have counted out. Brad Lidge has come over to the Phillies to become the closer for the Phillies. What does that do? A couple of important things: it lengthens the bullpen, moving Tom Gordon to the setup role andJC Romero and Ryan Madson to a nice one-two punch in the sixth/seventh innings. It also improves the rotation. Last year, Bret Myer had to move from the rotation to the bullpen in order to secure the closer role. Now, Myer can move back into the rotation, giving the Phillies a one-two punch of Cole Hamels and Bret Myers, as talented a first two in the rotation there is in the league. Couple that with the ageless Jamie Moyer and the exciting Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies have a deeper rotation than anyone else in the league.
That's a lot of pressure on Lidge to perform, and pressure has seemingly been his albatross, but there is something about Lidge that makes you want to root for him, and something about his persistence that makes you think he can rebound in a big way. If he does, the Phillies are the best team in the NL East.
Prediction: Phillies
Mets
Braves
Marlins
Nationals
Best player in the division: Hanley Ramirez
Best pitcher in the division: Johan Santana
Comeback player of the year: Scott Olsen
MVP of the league: Alfonso Soriano
Cy Young Award: Johan Santana
Wild Card winner: New York Mets
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