Prediction time baby!
This is where educated sports fans get to make absolute fools of themselves trying to predict what is going to happen in the upcoming baseball season. Want to know why this is such a stupid thing to do? Last year, I predicted the Athletics would win the AL West, the Astros the NL Central, and that Rich Harden would win the Cy Young Award in the AL. Yepper, I had me one good prediction session, didn't I?
Well, if at first you don't succees...........give up because it will just hurt more if you keep trying. But I'll ignore my advice and look at the baseball season for 2008. In my first part, I'll look at the NL and see who has the goods to go all the way this year.
AL West:
San Francisco Giants: This is a pretty strange team. Usually, MLB organizations have a decent lineup, decent position players, and a lack of starting pitching, especially young starting pitching. The Giants are the opposite. They have a starting rotation that has the potential to perhaps be the best in baseball. Barry Zito didn't exactly take to the NL last year, but one would have to assume he will bounce back this year (he's still a pretty damn good pitcher). Add in Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Noah Lowry and, 1-4, that is about as a good a mix of talented young pitchers as you're gonna get. The problem is, there isn't one position player on the team an opposing pitcher needs to worry about. There best player, and perhaps best power threat, is mid-level Aaron Rowand, who hit for power in band box stadiums in Chicago (White Sox) and Phillie, but is probably closer to a 15 homer guy than he is a 25 to 30 homer guy. That, my friends, is your 2008 power threat for the San Fran Giants. After that? You think anyone is waking up in a cold sweat at night worrying about whether Randy Winn or Dave Roberts is gonna be playing the next day? Ummmm...........probably not.
And the bullpen isn't much better. Brian Wilson (not the singer, well, not the Beach Boy singer anyway) will get the chance at the closer position. He has decent quality stuff but he has never taken on this type of a role for an entire season. I can't imagine it is gonna be smooth sailing. After that? Vinnie Chulk promises to be the Giants setup man. I am sure there is a die hard Giant supporter who knows who is, but I haven't met them.
It all spells a last place finish for the G-Men of baseball, and a pretty depressing way for the once proud franchise to celebrate their 50th anniversary in the Bay area.
Colorado Rockies: Let's face it, we all love us some Rockies. They shocked the world last year, earning a wild card birth, winning two improbable playoff series, and taking the Rockies to the World Series for the first time. Now, when they got to the series they promptly forgot how to play the game, laying down for the Red Sox in four games, but the run to potential glory was impressive. Having said that, it was an improbable run that won't be duplicated again.
Don't get me wrong, this isn't a bad team. In fact, they are a pretty good team, and they won't be losing by much. They have some star power in Matt Holliday, Garret Atkins (who just signed an extension), Troy "Spell my name B**ch" Tulowitzki, and the definition of the veteran star, Todd Helton. It was a fun and dynamic lineup to watch last year and I can't see why it won't be a fun and dynamic lineup this year as well.
But I just don't buy their pitching. Is Jeff Francis as good as he looked last year? How about Aaron Cook? Can Jason Hirsch, the former Astros' farm hand with all the "Big Texan" talent in the world, step up and be more than just talent locked in an arm but a reliable MLB pitcher? And how about that bullpen? Can the Brian Fuentes and Manny Corpas continue to keep teams at bay in the late innings in Coors Field? Can Taylor Bucholtz step up and be the set-up man in that bullpen? I just don't have a lot of confidence in them to do that.
L.A. Dodgers: This is where we get into our three team race. The first of the three is the Dodgers. They made a lot of noise this offseason by jumping on Joe Torre after the former Yankee manager was let go (oh, sorry, resigned) for the Bombers early after the team was ousted by The Indians. Torre should bring a calming influence to a clubhouse that was anything but. The young guys on the team consistently clashed with the older guys on the team and the discontent seemed to seep out onto the field. Torre should truly help quell any of those problems.
But Torre isn't a miracle worker. The players on the field need to step up and play better baseball, and, on paper, they have the talent to do it. The signing of Andruw Jones seemed to be overshadowed by all the Johan Santana trade talk, but it could turn out to be one of the best, if not the best, free agent signing of the year. While it may seem like Jones has been around since the dawn of the wheel, he is still only 30 years old. His market value took a big hit last year with his anemic .222 batting average and paltry .311 OBP, but he still had 26 homers and 94 RBI's and he is one year removed from a 41 homer 129 RBI season, a season that would have garnered him $20 mill per year had it been his walk year. That is, potentially, the type of player the Dodgers have plugged into their four spot in the lineup now. After that, the Dodgers just have a litany of talented players: James Looney, Russel Martin, Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, and veteran's like Jeff Kent and Juan Pierre and Nomar Garciaparra. It is a young, talented lineup, with a big power guy in the middle (Jones) and future stars littered all over the field.
And their pitching is just as talented. Brad Penny and Derek Lowe are still the one-two punch of the rotation, but talented youngster Chad Billingsley certainly has the capablility of being one of the best pitchers in the NL West. Jason Schmidt had a terrible, down year for the team last year, after signing a big contract, and it is unclear how much the fireballer righty might have left, but what if there is a little something left in the tank? Schmidt returning to form could make the Dodgers a four deep rotation that could compete with anyone. The bullpen, with Saito anchoring the closer roll, should be solid if not spectacular, but is simply an appendage to the impressive starting staff.
The question mark? This is a team that imploded on itself last year. If Torre finds the right formula, the Dodgers may prove to be the class of this league. However, I am going to have to see it to believe it. Right now, they come in second, in my opinion.
Arizona Diamondbacks: I see the Diamond backs, much like the Rockies, coming back to the pack this year. Yes, their pitching is even more formidable than it was last year when they won the division. Yes, they have some talented young studs that could possibly take a leap forward this year. But this is also a team that was outscored by their opponent for the entire season. It is a RARE team, and a rare occurence, when a team is outscored overall for an entire season and still makes the playoffs. I just don't see their pitching compensating that much for what remains a very shaky lineup.
The rotation is impressive, no doubt, and it is one of the reasons why I believe the West is truly a three team race. No one is gonna run and hide on this group. Their one through five is scary good. Brandon Webb is the reigning NL Cy Young winner, Dan Haren should see his ERA stay under three in the easier national league this year, Micah Ownings was considered one of the best young pitching prospects in baseball, and has a world of talent, and The Big Unit, Randy Johnson, may still have some juice left in the tank. If nothing else, the 1-2-3 punch of Webb, Haren, Ownings should be enough to prevent any big losing streaks.
The bullpen is young but talents, and Brandon Lyon really impressed in his role as the closer last year. Chad Qualls was, at times, dominate last year and could be a huge factor this year. But how many games is this team going to be able to win 3-2 or 2-1?
The fact is, the lineup needs to show that it is more than a bunch of good defenders forced to bat four times a game. The trifecta of Connor Jackson, Chad Tracy and Stephen Drew, all three major talents that rose from the D-Backs farm system, showed themselves to be ultimately average last year, with not one of them taking a huge leap forward (all three were expected to have big years last year). Eric Byrnes has turned himself into a quality major leaguer, and should continue to provide an offensive spark to the team, but this team will only go as far as the other before mentioned youngsters will take them. Do they have a big year in them? I just don't think you can go from inept to ominous in one year. The pitching keeps them in it, but I think they end up in second place when the season is over, just ahead of the Dodgers until they can prove the family can all get along.
(Note: In all honesty, I think the Diamondbacks are probably the third place team and the Dodgers could actually win the division, but I think you have to respect a deivision champion. Either way, none of these teams are running away with it, and they could all end up anywhere between one and three. I look at the West coming down to the last week of the season.)
San Diego Padres: When you look at the Padres, they just remind me of an old train that never breaks down and seems to always make it to the station on time. There are no frills. There are no superstars on this team. But they have a tremendous balance of great young players and grizzled veterans who have accepted a secondary role and just know how to win.
Just look at the lineup: Josh Bard, Adrian Gonzalez, and Kevin Kouzmanoff, the young, all world talents, are joined by Brian Giles and new veteran stalworths Tadahito Iguchi and Jim Edmonds. Those guys have been to the World Series before, have won World Series, and know how to win. They add a dimension to the Padres lineup they haven't had before; proven winners.
The rotation has a similar feel to it: Joining stud starters Jake Peavy and Chris Young is Greg Maddux, the future Hall of Famer who has more playoff wins than Peavy and Young do in their careers. The Padres also added veteran lefty Randy Wolf and took a flier on Mark Prior, who, if he ever regained his former self for even a moment, would make the Padres a favorite to win the World Series this year.
Trevor Hoffman is still holding serve in the bullpen, and while Trevor has had his problems in the big moments, there are still few closers in the game as reliable as he.
The men behind Hoffman won't knock your socks off, but they were solid last year and should be solid this year as well.
The problem? That damn ballpark is so twisted and strange, it gives the Padre players as many fits as it gives opposing teams. To me, Petco is kinda like Coors. I am gonna have to see a team playing in that ballpark win in the big spot, in the big moment, to believe it can be done. But, for the regular season, I think the Padres are the best equipped to take control of a well balanced division.
Of course, Edmonds could be done, Gonzalez could take a step back, and Maddux could prove that, eventually, the fountain of youth dries out. But if that doesn't happen, this is the team to beat.
Prediction: Padres
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Rockies
Giants
Best pitcher in the division: Jake Peavy
Best hitter in the division: Troy Tulowitzki
Comeback player of the year: Jim Edmonds
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